snywx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Wow upton must be confident about this event. I have 70% pops for all snow Thursday and Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Wow upton must be confident about this event. I have 70% pops for all snow Thursday and Thursday night Yup. The same is going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Should be moisture loaded with the gulf still open. I just want a storm where there is a lot of confidence and not the news stations upping amounts every broadcast. Big swath of 12"+ two days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Should be moisture loaded with the gulf still open. I just want a storm where there is a lot of confidence and not the news stations upping amounts every broadcast. Big swath of 12"+ two days out. good luck with the media not hyping up a major impact storm. also young kids spreading around a year old RPM model run with 30" of snow over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It should be noted that run-to-run continuity has been very poor over the 72 to 168-hour timeframe, so one should be cautious aboout accepting the details of any particular run at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Mount holly WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. AS USUAL THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE IN THIS TIME PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINK THE LAST TWO 12Z 2/6 AND 00Z 2/7 OP EC RUNS HAVE BEEN TO AMPED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THAT THE TRACK MAY BE A BIT FURTHER EAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FROM TODAY. IF THE LOW TRACKS INLAND OUR REGION SNOW IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN FOR THE METROPOLITAN PHILADELPHIA REGION AND THE SHORE. A TRACK JUST OFFSHORE COULD RESULT IN MORE SNOWFALL. A TRACK EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE INFLUENCED BY THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS AND UKMET WOULD RESULT IN A MISS AND A WARMER THURSDAY. EITHER WAY THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UP A LOT OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A TRACK THAT IS JUST OFFSHORE. AND WENT WITH LOW LIKELY POPS CENTERED ON THURSDAY MORNING. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yet another outcome on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Big phase coming day 5-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yanks, looks like it may be 12z JMA-like....It wants nothing to do with EURO's southern Miller A,, the northern vort is digging though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Strong shortwave dropping into the base of the trough now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Low over the Carolina's coming north. Temps are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 As the last SW drops in the trough really sharpens. Big Rainer this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The setup looks really ugly with this, so I'm not betting on too much honestly. Yet somehow it's found a way to snow despite almost every teleconnection saying it can't, so who knows what's gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Good signs, long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Gfs has had a few warm runs fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The setup looks really ugly with this, so I'm not betting on too much honestly. Yet somehow it's found a way to snow despite almost every teleconnection saying it can't, so who knows what's gonna happen.Things are a long way off from being finalized. Save it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm going to follow the Euro's lead on this because it's been doing a lot better and, it does a lot better with these phased systems compared to the gfs. I guess the best case would be a very marginal paste job and amounts of 6-12" with probably low ratios of like 8:1 or something. The worst being a rainstorm with temps in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 At what hour on the GFS are you seeing snow, I wana make sure i`m not overlooking something . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 At what hour on the GFS are you seeing snow, I wana make sure i`m not overlooking something .On this run not at all. Means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 On this run not at all. Means nothing. I am going with the Euro , wasn't sure if I was reading , this storm found a way to snow , he did write the winter found a way to snow . I like the east track better . PS try not to say it means nothing , its a plausible solution , may not be the one we want , but you don't ignore guidance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I am going with the Euro , wasn't sure if I was reading , this storm found a way to snow , he did write the winter found a way to snow . I like the east track better . PS try not to say it means nothing , its a plausible solution , may not be the one we want , but you don't ignore guidance . The models are struggling with the forecast at 48 hours out, what makes you think they have next week sorted out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The models are struggling with the forecast at 48 hours out, what makes you think they have next week sorted out? Right , so never ignore , look for continuity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deguy50 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It should be noted that run-to-run continuity has been very poor over the 72 to 168-hour timeframe, so one should be cautious aboout accepting the details of any particular run at this point in time. a voice of reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Most in this sub forum haven't had a true rainstorm since early Jan. That's pretty freakin awesome. If this turns out more wet than white, it's not the end of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Most in this sub forum haven't had a true rainstorm since early Jan. That's pretty freakin awesome. If this turns out more wet than white, it's not the end of the winter. Inland runners used to be much more common..we're due for one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Inland runners used to be much more common..we're due for one Jan 5 th I believe, nailed the Midwest with 12-18" and gave us 60's albeit briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro looks east of the 12z run. Still has a storm in a good spot for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What an ugly setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 0z Euro Hour 126 - 132 look like this . At 850 its Minus 1 in CNJ and N/S counties Minus 2 at KNYC Minus 3 NW 287and 80 Surface temps are in the mid to upper 30`s for all of Suffolk county and the South facing shore of Nassau as well as the immediate NJ coast from Asbury Park S Its 33 from CNJ , just west of the GSP thru KNYC and 34 at KLGA and its 28- 30 NW 287 and 80 . So just away from the coast its a heavy wet snow . The Euro ensembles are East and the Control the most Robust but a little warmer at 850 but def colder aloft than its last 2 runs . These are snapshots 5 days away . Take away from this , that its trended east and the surfaces I mentioned I believe would look better if the Ensembles were right . The reason the surface is marginal is because the precip at 126 is spotty and at 132 its only .3 and .4 . The center runs to a great spot ,If rates pick up the surface would cool , with that track and those 850`s . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 0z Euro Hour 126 - 132 look like this . At 850 its Minus 1 in CNJ and N/S counties Minus 2 at KNYC Minus 3 NW 287and 80 Surface temps are in the mid to upper 30`s for all of Suffolk county and the South facing shore of Nassau as well as the immediate NJ coast from Asbury Park S Its 33 from CNJ , just west of the GSP thru KNYC and 34 at KLGA and its 28- 30 NW 287 and 80 . So just away from the coast its a heavy wet snow . The Euro ensembles are East and the Control the most Robust but a little warmer at 850 but def colder aloft than its last 2 runs . These are snapshots 5 days away . Take away from this , that its trended east and the surfaces I mentioned I believe would look better if the Ensembles were right . The reason the surface is marginal is because the precip at 126 is spotty and at 132 its only .3 and .4 . The center runs to a great spot ,If rates pick up the surface would cool , with that track and those 850`s . Does not sound really like a big ticket item. Overall the trend looks to be aginst the big storm idea. GFS looks like a sleeping bear after it moves or breaks wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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