IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Don't let the past storm blur your judgment with this one. That's a big storm signal between the Euro op and it's ensemble mean. Nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Don't let the past storm blur your judgment with this one. That's a big storm signal between the Euro op and it's ensemble mean. Nothing more, nothing less. Paste bomb N&W of I-95 so i can only assume ( this is far out mind you ) much lighter accumulations towards the coast then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Don't let the past storm blur your judgment with this one. That's a big storm signal between the Euro op and it's ensemble mean. Nothing more, nothing less. There were big signals with the weekend storm from the Ops and their ensembles, so what. It doesn't mean that much so far out apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Paste bomb N&W of I-95 so i can only assume ( this is far out mind you ) much lighter accumulations towards the coast then It's too early to assume anything but I think the setup definitely favors inland over the coast. The cold air source just isn't strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yank, did the EURO have the massive storm for more then one run, that the GFS showed? Maybe the EURO is coming back, since we are back in a better southern stream pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Don't let the past storm blur your judgment with this one. That's a big storm signal between the Euro op and it's ensemble mean. Nothing more, nothing less. I would be more exicted if we had more favorable teleconnectors in place. There is no +PNA ridge, coupled with a disturbance racing thru the Great Lakes. I've seen far better set ups but then again anything is possible. The Feb blizzard last year is an example of "threading the needle" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 18z NAM is digging the southern stream energy into the southwest like the Euro did. That's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 HM Posted A minute ago Meanwhile, the GEFS/EPS means are actually pretty similar and if anything have improved somewhat with the 500mb pattern. I will say that the EPS did trend deeper with the vortex that drops into Hudson Bay. They are more south than east though from the 00z run. Also, the 12z run trended deeper with the eastern PV / 50-50 low anomaly. Not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If i am not mistaken, the Euro had a coastal hugger at 168hr at 0z. Now it has the low slightly east buy at hour 144 or so. I guess its focussing on a different wave. But at least it still shows a nice low along our coast around the day 6 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 18z GFS looking a bit better through day 4, we'll see how this ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The energy right off the NW coast looks much more potent, we'll see if it catches up (like JMA shows) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The GFS now is almost trying to bury the southern vort into Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Overall looks like it slowed down the southern stream here which would be good. Overall looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's not going to be as good as the Euro from what I'm seeing through day 5. Still weak and relatively disorganized down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS looks pretty similar to the JMA so far, FWIW (JMA ended up making the energy that came from the NW the main show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Big low coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's not going to be as good as the Euro from what I'm seeing through day 5. Still weak and relatively disorganized down south. Looks much better go home yanks your drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 run looks great besides the cold air being marginal thus far in this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The surface is warm and the 850s is barely holding through HR 141. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Boom, huge differences, warm. Track looks like 93' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The surface is warm and the 850s is barely holding through HR 141. through 150 even NE and CNY has problems 850's above 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It shows a storm. It phased. Energy down south was just a bit weak for a huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 1" plus QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It shows a storm. It phased. Energy down south was just a bit weak for a huge storm. yea your right on that one. just if as we get closer to Monday/Tuesday if we don't get more northern stream influence this may be a threat for the north country to follow not us. huge improvements but would love to see it 150 miles further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's good that it showed a formidable storm, but nice and toasty... Doesn't matter anyway this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The GFS is probably too slow getting the entire thing going, hence if the event does come to fruition I'd expect its going to organize and come up the coast faster than the GFS and probably even the Euro currently suggest amd hence there would be a better air mass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Big low coming up the coast. Regular bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The setup looks kind of ugly on the gfs, but at least it shows a storm. Maybe it can trend a little better. It's amazing how off these models have been, and I literally can't trust them more than 30 hrs out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The GFS is probably too slow getting the entire thing going, hence if the event does come to fruition I'd expect its going to organize and come up the coast faster than the GFS and probably even the Euro currently suggest amd hence there would be a better air mass in place. The GFS was doing something that I would expect the Euro to do and that was holding the Southern Stream Vort for an extended period of time. The reality of this will be something closer to what the Euro is showing, but closer to the benchmark and maybe less moisture, but slightly more cold air aloft and at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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