Mikehobbyst Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I am liking the potential with this one. This could be a nice 10-12 inch snowfall if we get full potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 10-12" you say? I'll be sure to advertise it all over fb. I saw it on a wx forum so it must be right! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 10-12" you say? I'll be sure to advertise it all over fb. I saw it on a wx forum so it must be right! ;-) What a start to this thread! Setting the pace properly ralph i like it lol In all seriousness this has a better likely hood of happening, well you could say that for all the threats next week as the 500mb pattern looks much improved from what this weekend apparently was. Im encouraged but keeping my expectations very low until 72 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 i think we will realize this potential as it gets closer... Like the background pattern and indices leading in to this. Much better looking than the 2/9 HECS hype. I am noticing more birds singing 1/2 hour before sunrise within the last three days, and the shadows at noon are much shorter than a month ago... We went from 25.8 to 33.7 noon sun angle already. We will be up to 41.5 noon angle by 2/28. Notice how much faster snow sublimates on south side exposures over a few sunny days, even if high is 25-28. I know snow packs loose some durability by the last week of February. The tallest Mall snow piles will likely however still be around till Memorial Day, when we have our first Severe Thunderstorm warning. We'll be 85 degrees and might see some snow that was left over from this epic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 What a start to this thread! Setting the pace properly ralph i like it lol In all seriousness this has a better likely hood of happening, well you could say that for all the threats next week as the 500mb pattern looks much improved from what this weekend apparently was. Im encouraged but keeping my expectations very low until 72 hours out This threat is a week away....we should all curb our enthusiasm over this one for now. I already see signs the gfs wants to shear this system at 6z. Not nearly as consolidated a low as 12z runs had yesterday. What's the ggem say? Its done ok this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This threat is a week away....we should all curb our enthusiasm over this one for now. I already see signs the gfs wants to shear this system at 6z. Not nearly as consolidated a low as 12z runs had yesterday. What's the ggem say? Its done ok this season. No matter what the models say im curbing my enthusiasm till monday at the very earliest. This weekend threat has been humbling to say the least to not jump the gun prematurely no matter what the models/pattern say....Off Topic but to cure the sour taste of this weekend i have opened up my wallets and purchased car parts for my GLI for this show season, automatic smile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 This threat is a week away....we should all curb our enthusiasm over this one for now. I already see signs the gfs wants to shear this system at 6z. Not nearly as consolidated a low as 12z runs had yesterday. What's the ggem say? Its done ok this season. When you said curb your enthusiasm, I thought of that show's poster from an early season 2000 ??, with the guy in a carnival game with clown decorations around him, that are supposed to be hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 When you said curb your enthusiasm, I thought of that show's poster from an early season 2000 ??, with the guy in a carnival game with clown decorations around him, that are supposed to be hit.answered my own question....ggem is rather sheared out as well but leaving a lobe of energy behind at 144hrs that might or might not phase later with the northern jet. So its a minor system on the ggem with the potential for something later in the period. Lots of energy rolling thru...the models are going to struggle in this pattern until about 48-72 hrs prior to any threat imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 With lots of energy/ disturbances in the pipeline, potential is high for at least mod events. That's the most confident thing I can say right now this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 with continued posts like this we should reach 45 pages similar to the "weekend storm ???" by saturday ( HELP WANTED - One Good Moderator ) Maybe some banter NEG NAO but we're not really in the forecast range where this threat should start being broken down and taken seriously. Take it easy and when threats look more pronounced in the shorter range i clean up my posts accordingly since it is down to serious forecasting. I get the whole keeping banter out of discussion threads but its feb. 6th a this is what 7 days away? Lol am glad though the pattern looks to have the potential to produce next week again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Gfs is a mecs dc to bos....very fragile setup tho won't take much to screw things up as we saw with this weekend's system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Gfs is a mecs dc to bos Wow, great run for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Gfs is a mecs dc to bos Oh you mean like this weekend was from DC-BOSTON a week out? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Oh you mean like this weekend was from DC-BOSTON a week out? Lolsee my edited post above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 850s warm above freezing by the end. Probably ends as sleet after most falls as snow. Surface is 30-32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I didn't even know this topic existed hence why I didn't do the PBP here. Anyway I think a general February discussion thread would have been a better choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I didn't even know this topic existed hence why I didn't do the PBP here. Anyway I think a general February discussion thread would have been a better choice.yepper...starting a thread on a storm threat a week out is usually the k.o.d. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z GGEM looking similar through hour 138 to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I am liking the potential with this one. This could be a nice 10-12 inch snowfall if we get full potential. well lets hope it doesn't turn out like this weekend's storm you hyped up widespread 20-30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Models 7 days out with this storm looked great as well. As we got close the players responsible for the 500mb setup became misplaced or werent there for it to come together. We have to watch more for signs of this actually happening meteorlogically and not by models. That said the mid week threat looks pretty good but the pacific still sort worries me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 What can I say about the 12z GEFS other than that the spread at day 7 is enormous regarding the track of whatever low emerges off the coast. But they all have a big storm crossing the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Not one met/pro post in this thread yet. I'll come back later, lol, although hopefully having this thread will at least stop the mess in the thread for this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 What can I say about the 12z GEFS other than that the spread at day 7 is enormous regarding the track of whatever low emerges off the coast. But they all have a big storm crossing the deep south.Would also like to add is if that Hp and confluence is great the storm should be a little further east and mixing should not be a problem. That is a great cold air source and from here p-type issues should not be a concern at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Would also like to add is if that Hp and confluence is great the storm should be a little further east and mixing should not be a problem. That is a great cold air source and from here p-type issues should not be a concern at this juncture I'm not paying attention to that right now. Just looking at the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'm not paying attention to that right now. Just looking at the potential. Me neither was just stating the outcome if that was the end result as this will change multiple times until this storm does or does not happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Me neither was just stating the outcome if that was the end result as this will change multiple times until this storm does or does not happen You're like the most non confrontational poster on this forum lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 You're like the most non confrontational poster on this forum lol. Unlike you who not long ago was begging to have to ban hammer drop on your ***. I prefer to have an extended stay here ive been on many forums outside of here and participating member on them and just prefer not to have that target because you lose credibility and FAST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Interesting, some light snow Sunday night as the northern stream wave blows through. More of a true clipper vs inverted trough. (12z ECMWF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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