FLweather Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It should be noted that the nam and gfs both weaken the 500mb vorticity. Which would lead to a weaker further east solution with the heaviest qpf. But some of the short range models maintain the strenght of the vortmax. But if the vortmax remains strong not only most of the SE see a repeat of yesterday but would argue for a slightly west track of yesterday. More towards western NC instead of eastern NC. That slight west track would help with moisture getting further back N/W over portions of N GA, SC, Western central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ready for round 2? This system is stronger than last night. But most short range models expand the precip shield and rh field in the next several hours. Most continue to indicate light returns till the distrubance moves over E TX,LA,AR then rapid expansion. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southplains.php Holding out hope here for flurries since last night was a bust. It's like deja vu from yesterday! lol But hopefully more people will see light snow/flurries from this system tonight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 SURRY-WILKES-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-524 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTHCAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHCENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITHOR CHANGING TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/2 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.YET ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLTO THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THEREREMAIN MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's like deja vu from yesterday! lol But hopefully more people will see light snow/flurries from this system tonight into tomorrow. Yeah it is but wetter. I hope the vortex can remain strong enough for maybe a wobble or two to the west. That away some decent banding setups over the western piedmont. But there certainly is alot of high clouds already streaming in with the disturbance of TX. About another 4-5 more hours and precip shield really begin to fill and start reaching the ground over east TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I guess this one has fizzled out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 No. The s/w is over west TX with precip breaking out ahead of it in east TX, LA, AR,MS. Its just going to be very late night/sunrise for most. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 From GSP: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC242 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014NCZ035>037-502-080900-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-GREATER CALDWELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...LENOIR242 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSSTHE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT VERY LATE TONIGHT ANDSATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG ANDNORTH OF A LINE FROM LENOIR TO MOCKSVILLE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AREEXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSYAREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.$$MCAVOY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 From GSP: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC242 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014NCZ035>037-502-080900-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-GREATER CALDWELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...LENOIR242 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSSTHE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT VERY LATE TONIGHT ANDSATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG ANDNORTH OF A LINE FROM LENOIR TO MOCKSVILLE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AREEXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSYAREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.$$MCAVOY Nice, avianman! I totally missed this. Thanks for posting it. Perhaps you and I will be a little more fortunate in the early morning than we were last night. It's always frustrating to see radar returns overhead, yet nothing making it to the ground. I would gladly take some grassy accumulation in the AM to tide me over to the monster storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This system is looking better organized via radar since early this morning. The Gom is opening up aswell with showers near Mobile. Somebody will probably end up with a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This system is looking better organized via radar since early this morning. The Gom is opening up as well with showers near Mobile. Somebody will probably end up with a surprise. Noticed that also.... It's radar watching time now. Temps have been hovering around 39 degrees since dark. Clouds have thickened and there are even some light returns showing up on radar over NE GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The latest RAP is pretty dreadful. There's no measurable precipitation until you get within 100 miles of the coast. EDIT: The 00z NAM is no better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The latest RAP is pretty dreadful. There's no measurable precipitation until you get within 100 miles of the coast. Interesting..... It will be strange watching all that precip that's heading our way just go poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 One thing with this storm vs last night is we had a much drier atmosphere last night so evaporative cooling is what gave us the snow.. we was 50% humidity last night in the low 40s with a 26 degree dew point now tonight we are at 34 degrees with a 80% humidity and a 30 degree dew point so tonight there will be less evaporative colling vs last night.. also it looks like we are going to reach our low temp pretty soon so we will be rising in temperature overnight... if we get heavy enough rates it will cool the column down some but the dynamic won't be in our favor like it was last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Noticed that also.... It's radar watching time now. Temps have been hovering around 39 degrees since dark. Clouds have thickened and there are even some light returns showing up on radar over NE GA. Agree. Still appears to be getting better organized via radar and wv. Cloud tops cooling over TX. Not sure why the models have dryed up.. Edit: Not sure if this could be considered a trend. But the short range models showing some banding near the 85 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The RUC is quite the opposite of the RAP. It's very prolific with the potential radar returns: http://ruc.noaa.gov/RUC/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=ruc_jet:&runTime=2014020801&plotName=cref_t6sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUC%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Go back 10 years ago and I see the radar like what I see now and I pretty much know 1-2 inches of snow is coming my way. will be interesting to see if this thing fizzles out or not as it moves east. These things always seem to hang on a little longer than expected so long as the dry air can be overcome. I suppose we shall see! I Love these unexpected events since if we don't get anything it's not a disappointment, because that is what was expected anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Dew point has dropped from 30 to 28 in the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 The radar is looking healthy so far. Precipitation is streaming our way. I'm surprised some of the Surry Co. crew hasn't made mention of this event... ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-MONROE-346 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTHCAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHCENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA ANDSOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OFSATURDAY MORNING...WILL ACCUMULATE A TRACE TO UP TO 2 INCHES OFSNOW. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ABOVE 3000 FEET.A FEW MORE SYSTEMS COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE AREASUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND ALSO TOWARD MID-WEEK.HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Go back 10 years ago and I see the radar like what I see now and I pretty much know 1-2 inches of snow is coming my way. will be interesting to see if this thing fizzles out or not as it moves east. These things always seem to hang on a little longer than expected so long as the dry air can be overcome. I suppose we shall see! I Love these unexpected events since if we don't get anything it's not a disappointment, because that is what was expected anyways. Agreed. It's the unexpected events that usually surprise us. Good luck and I hope everyone see's snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The radar is looking healthy so far. Precipitation is streaming our way. I'm surprised some of the Surry Co. crew hasn't made mention of this event... You must be looking at intellicast. There's nothing showing that I can find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 You must be looking at intellicast. There's nothing showing that I can find. Nah, that iwishicast radar always looks too robust. The precipitation back in the Ark/La/Tex area moving into Miss/Ala/Tenn area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nah, that iwishicast radar always looks too robust. The precipitation back in the Ark/La/Tex area moving into Miss/Ala/Tenn area. Ah. Just a few hundred miles to go, across a mountain range and Surry county is ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Do u guys think the piedmont will see any snow n the morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ah. Just a few hundred miles to go, across a mountain range and Surry county is ready to go. We hope anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Do u guys think the piedmont will see any snow n the morning? No, I really don't think we'll see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Do u guys think the piedmont will see any snow n the morning? Possibly. As jburns eluded to, it has a ways to go before it gets here. The mountains have a way of absorbing the precipitation before it moves eastward across the apps into our area. But I still believe it is worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Possibly. As jburns eluded to, it has a ways to go before it gets here. The mountains have a way of absorbing the precipitation before it moves eastward across the apps into our area. But I still believe it is worth keeping an eye on. Piedmont prediction: Some flurries early. Maybe a dusting around Mt Airy. Decreasing south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Piedmont prediction: Some flurries early. Maybe a dusting around Mt Airy. Decreasing south and east. Totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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