Feb 7-8 Slight Snow Potential

[Ollie Williams]

Models keep hinting at a small potential for light snow for this fri/sat in NC along I-40 northward into S VA so I thought I would give it a shot.  I know it's a long shot but worth keeping an eye on.  

 

0z GFS @ 63

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/ImageFourPanel.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_063_200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht_s.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=00&param=200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht&fhr=063&group=&scrollx=0&scrolly=51

 

0z CMC @ 60

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_060.jpg

 

0z Euro

 

Low pressure moves from S Texas to off the SC/NC coast

 

 

NWS Blacksburg, VA Forecast Discussion -

 

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

STILL WATCHING THIS WEEKEND`S COASTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...COLD AIR
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW...HOWEVER A SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND TRACK
MAY PUSH A PERIOD OF RAIN...BRIEFLY MIXING WITH SNOW INTO THE VA/NC
PIEDMONT STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A MORE INLAND TRACK...THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...POSSIBLY ALLOWING MORE COLDER AIR TO SEEP SOUTH RESULTING
IN MORE SNOW. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN WITH A LITTLE SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. SURFACE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING AND MARGINAL H85 TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH ACCUMS BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK.

[Ollie Williams]

I'm surprised there is no mention of the latest model runs for THIS Saturday in NC. The moisture is trending MUCH HIGHER for interior parts of NC which could lead to a bit of winter weather (mainly NW NC right now).  In fact the 15z SREF really dumps a lot of moisture across the entire SE. Most of it is a very cold rain, but some areas could get lucky on the northern and northwest fringes!!

 

This latest winter pattern reminds me a lot of the epic Jan 2000 ( I think) snowfall for CLT, RAH, GSO, etc. Everybody was focused on another shortwave when the actual storm developed "out of no where." 

 

Now, I'm not suggesting another repeat, but sometimes we need to focus on what's in front of our face instead of what we can't see yet.

[Ollie Williams]

The Euro shows some snow on Saturday for N NC, as well.  We're probably talking about T-1", at best, but still, it's something.  2m temperatures aren't even that horrible (33ish).

[10below]

The title to this thread should be, "A man all Alone".

[GreensboroWx]

NAM was a bit wide right with its latest runs, but the SREF, GFS, and GEM still have a bit of light snow for the Triad Sat. It's still worth watching.....

[FLweather]

I know this thread is for tomorrow night. But there is two opportunities for snow with tonight included.

 

North GA, W SC,Central NC for tonight light snow/flurries.

 

Again same locations tomorrow. 

 

The nam simulated radar has been healthy looking for tomorrow. But not sure on the surface temps.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=sim_radar&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=360

[Shawn]

Tonight's threat isn't too great.  Bad temps, tiny bit of moisture in the South part of SC.. I'm letting go...  really no support from the RAP either.

[Cold Rain]

6z and 12z NAM show good precip over the central/eastern parts of SC/NC, but the 850 line is right at the northern edge of the shield. I am sure the surface is probably too warm. But it's possible for somebody to see some flakes.

[FallsLake]

6z and 12z NAM show good precip over the central/eastern parts of SC/NC, but the 850 line is right at the northern edge of the shield. I am sure the surface is probably too warm. But it's possible for somebody to see some flakes.

We're close enough now to start looking at current conditions. At 10am RDU has a dew point of 21 with a forecast to fall into the teens. This is crucial, it signifies there will be evaporational cooling. I think at this point we just need the precip to be heavy enough and we may have a little surprise for somebody.

[Ollie Williams]

The title to this thread should be, "A man all Alone".

 

A man all alone with quite a few friends, but thanks for reading.

 

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 314 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...THEN OVER NEW

ENGLAND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE OVER THE CAROLINAS-VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE

AND FOOTHILLS...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL RESIDE. THIS INVERTED TROUGH

MAY DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION

OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AND CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FROM THE

SOUTH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE

REGION. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WARM

AIR GETS PUSHED INTO THE AREA AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION DEVELOPS

AND A SHORT WAVE GLIDES OVER THE REGION... TOWARDS SOUTHSIDE...PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT

AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY MID MORNING. ANOTHER

QUESTION MARK COMES INTO PLAY AS A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE DEEPENS

OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY DRAW COLD AIR IN

FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SNOW IN LONGER AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE

AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COASTAL SYSTEM MAY ALSO ROB THE AREA

OF MOISTURE...LIMITING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. BOTH THE 00Z

GFS/ECM AGREE ON LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING SATURDAY. BOTH AGREE

ON AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID GETTING SQUEEZED OUT OVER

THE FORECAST AREA. IF ALL SNOW...WE COULD SEE ABOUT A HALF OF AN

INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS/FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO TWO INCHES

ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE 00Z NAM PLACES MORE EMPHASES ON

THE COASTAL WAVE...LEAVING THE AREA WITH A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION.

I PLACED MORE WEIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARD THE GFS/ECM

WITH A POP RANGE FROM 40-60 PERCENT. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE NAM AS

OUTLIERS HAVE THEIR MOMENTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTHERN AND

SOUTHERN STREAM OUT OF PHASE.

 

[Cold Rain]

We're close enough now to start looking at current conditions. At 10am RDU has a dew point of 21 with a forecast to fall into the teens. This is crucial, it signifies there will be evaporational cooling. I think at this point we just need the precip to be heavy enough and we may have a little surprise for somebody.

Yeah...we'll need a near perfect confluence of events to crowbar this one in. Evaporational cooling, decent precip rates, maximum radiational cooling, early onset of precipitation, etc....

[FLweather]

We're close enough now to start looking at current conditions. At 10am RDU has a dew point of 21 with a forecast to fall into the teens. This is crucial, it signifies there will be evaporational cooling. I think at this point we just need the precip to be heavy enough and we may have a little surprise for somebody.

 

I agree. Especially since this is coming in late evening temps should have an opportunity to cool some before precip starts falling.

 

But there appears to be growing returns along the Gulf Coast. FWIW Rap and Nam hires does look wetter than the nam. GFS even spits out about .03" around here .

 

[Cold Rain]

GFS matches up well with the NAM re: the shortwave. The 850 line is north, like usual. It's probably not going to cut it for snow...based on my anticipation of how the precip will line up with the 850s.

[Cold Rain]

At 48, everyone outside of the mountains and south of the VA boarder are above freezing at 850 with precip incoming.

[Cold Rain]

Much more precip at 54 than the 0z and 6z. But the 850s are still hugging the VA boarder. GSM on the GFS outside of the mountains/boarder counties, where the precip is light. It's been very consistent about this. On to the Canadian.....

[weatherlover]

The only time to trust these models is after the event is over...most times 6 hours before the event there's no clue what's gonna happen. Much less 6 days away....

[Cold Rain]

 

The only time to trust these models is after the event is over...most times 6 hours before the event there's no clue what's gonna happen. Much less 6 days away....

 

2x #banter

[superjames1992]

The 12z Euro appears to drop some light snow across N/NW NC (give or take) on Saturday.  It's light (<0.1" QPF), but it's there.  850s are good enough from CLT to RDU and northwestward.  The precip shield is pretty expansive north of there, albeit light.  Surface temperatures are marginal, but possibly okay (32-34).  If there's a warm nose elsewhere than at 850 mb, it might just be rain, though.

[FLweather]

Same disturbance there is coming through N GA,SC,NC later tonight and its alot wetter now than was modeled previously. 

 

This alert was generated by the National Weather Service
EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)
from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.
ACUS11 KWNS 061810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061809
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-062215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CST THU FEB 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS...SERN LA...SWRN AL

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 061809Z - 062215Z

SUMMARY...A SHIELD OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A VIGOROUS SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS APPROACHING
THE LOWER MS VALLEY PER RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS. PRECEDING DCVA IS
MODESTLY ENHANCING MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ABOVE A SFC-BASED COLD
DOME. IR AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY IMPLY A RECENT UPTICK IN SHALLOW
CONVECTION OVER SRN LA AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT ATTENDANT
TO THE IMPULSE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD OVER SERN
LA...FAR SERN MS...AND SWRN AL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH THE 12Z LIX RAOB WET-BULB PROFILE INDICATING DEEP SUB-FREEZING
AIR BENEATH A SHALLOW WARM LAYER BETWEEN H85 AND H7...SLEET AND
PERHAPS SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION...AFFECTING AREAS FROM NEAR PATTERSON TOWARD BATON
ROUGE AND THEN EWD TOWARD NEW ORLEANS AND PERHAPS GULFPORT DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WEAK SFC COLD ADVECTION AND SUB-CLOUD
EVAPORATION WILL REINFORCE THE COLD DOME...WITH ICE PRECIP PHASES
BEING MANIFESTED AT THE SFC. LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION RATES
OF 0.03-0.05 INCH/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY --
SNOWFALL RATES AOB 0.4 INCH/HOUR -- THOUGH SUCH RATES WILL BE BRIEF
OWING TO THE FAST MOTION OF THE IMPULSE.

FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MS INCLUDING AREAS SOUTH OF
JACKSON TOWARD MCCOMB EWD TO THE PINE BELT REGION...HINTS OF
CYCLONIC ARCHING OF THE BROADER PRECIP SHIELD INTO THIS REGION
SUGGEST DEFORMATION-ZONE-RELATED ENHANCED ASCENT. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
DEEPER COLD AIR EXISTS PER THE 12Z JAN RAOB. SNOW WILL BE MORE
LIKELY IN THESE AREAS...AND HEAVY SNOW HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED
UPSTREAM IN ALEXANDRIA LA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE IMPULSE QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.3-0.6 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE OVER
AN HOUR OR TWO OF DURATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE EWD INTO SWRN AL
IN TANDEM WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE IMPULSE AFTER 1930-2000Z.

 

[packfan98]

FWIW, the RAP is starting to show some QPF now when earlier runs from an hour or two ago had nothing.

 

[Ollie Williams]

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL THREATS OF
WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WEST OF INTERSTATE
81 AND 77 SATURDAY...WITH A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AND 77 ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
BRING ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER THREAT FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

 

[FLweather]

18z hi res nam for tonight. 2-6 2-7

 

Not sure on the qpf amounts. R>S for ATL areas and Columbia,SC N/W. 

 

But just looking at the simulated radar something would be making its way to the ground.

 

[Ollie Williams]

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 400 PM EST THURSDAY... WATCHING AN UPPER LEVEL (SHORT WAVE) DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST...SKIRTING THE AREA TONIGHT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING. MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ADDITION TO GETTING CAUGHT ON THE WINDWARD SIDE (WEST SIDE)OF THE MTNS. WHERE PRECIP DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE SNOW...TEMPERATURES OF -5 TO -8C AT 850 MB SUPPORTING THE FROZEN FORM. MODEL QPF FOR OUR CWA IS .01 OR LESS...SO ONLY EXPECTING TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW. ATTM WILL ENTERTAIN SLIGHT CHC MEASURABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM THE NC HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...TO ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER.

[thekidcurtis]

Where's Brick, snowing in Raleigh/Wake Forest.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Brick Tamland]

I don't see anything here.

[ncskywarn]

I live in Wake Forest also and haven't seen anything either

[Ketch]

Yep, light snow down here in NE Raleigh (Wake Crossroads) at least for the last 15 mins or so.  Probably would've never noticed had the dog not been begging to go out to pee. 

[WxBlue]

There was some flurries in Western NC (and it actually made it down to Asheville), but that's it.

[crossthread]

6z and 12z NAM show good precip over the central/eastern parts of SC/NC, but the 850 line is right at the northern edge of the shield. I am sure the surface is probably too warm. But it's possible for somebody to see some flakes.

seeing FLAKES HERE IN ilm , surprisingly ...

[FLweather]

Ready for round 2?

 

This system is stronger than last night. But most short range models expand the precip shield and rh field in the next several hours. Most continue to indicate light returns till the distrubance moves over E TX,LA,AR then rapid expansion.

 

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southplains.php

 

Holding out hope here for flurries since last night was a bust.