Shawn Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The new Euro weeklies released today are ridiculous and don't end winter any time soon. No east coast ridge in sight, and by March 11th sends the PV into the lakes, west based -NAO, -AO blocking over the top, PV gets trapped for much of March, just keeps spinning in on itself. By March 21st (last frame of the Weeklies) deep east coast trough and tall west coast ridge, PV is below Hudson bay 540 line to Atlanta. Just an absurd run of the weeklies and if it's right, we're in for one cold March. I just took a quick look... man.. all the way through till the end of it's run (21st of March).... Winter storm after Winter storm chance. There's no way.... what analogs would fit this for March? Also was the Super storm with a -NAO etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Latest update from WxSouth: http://wxsouth.com/?cat=144 " In fact, we’ve had more cold this Winter in the absence of negative NAO than I ever recall seeing." My last power bill validates this statement. Never been over $300 until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I just took a quick look... man.. all the way through till the end of it's run (21st of March).... Winter storm after Winter storm chance. There's no way.... what analogs would fit this for March? Also was the Super storm with a -NAO etc?I think superstorm had a + NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 BTW James mentioned the control, I forgot to mention that what I summarized was the Control run. The mean is what you'd expect for a mean to look like, shows cold but a bit of ridging making its way in...but it's a LR mean after all. I just took a quick look... man.. all the way through till the end of it's run (21st of March).... Winter storm after Winter storm chance. There's no way.... what analogs would fit this for March? Also was the Super storm with a -NAO etc? I have no clue. Maybe Larry can shed some light? I'm not good with analogs/past events, I'd have to look 'em up and it would take me a while. Plus I have an exam at 7:30 tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Just remember what happen last spring... the coolness drag on and on even though it didnt produce nothing. Not impossible it can't happen again this year. If it continues mid to late April maybe the final cutoff chance of wintry precip in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I just took a quick look... man.. all the way through till the end of it's run (21st of March).... Winter storm after Winter storm chance. There's no way.... what analogs would fit this for March? Also was the Super storm with a -NAO etc? Maybe March, 1960, could be somewhat of an analog?? That was neutral negative ENSOwise fwiw and did have storm after storm through midmonth in much of the SE, even down to Atlanta! Regarding the March, 1993, blizzard, the NAO was more or less neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 00z GFS is like "i was bonkers last run; sorry. no go." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 00z GFS is like "i was bonkers last run; sorry. no go." "But here's an imaginary rain storm for you to look at!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Maybe March, 1960, could be somewhat of an analog?? That was neutral negative ENSOwise fwiw and did have storm after storm through midmonth in much of the SE, even down to Atlanta! Regarding the March, 1993, blizzard, the NAO was more or less neutral. I was five years old in 1960 and even though I was too young to actually remember that it was 1960, I remember big snow when I was that age and even have pictures of it. I've heard my mom and dad, as well as many others their age, talk about us getting three snowstorms within about a nine day period during March of 1960, in the Upstate of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Regardless of the details, there is a strong signal for a storm off the SE coast in the 2/26 - 2/28 time frame. The first image below is yesterday's 12z run (top) and 18z run (bottom) of the GFS operational. You'll notice the zone of high pressure to the west and the low pressure developing off the SE coast. The second image is today's GFS operational 0z run (top) and 6z run (bottom). You'll see the same signal. There is a PNA ridge out west and the PV is dropping SE out of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Here is the operational Euro run from yesterday's 12z run (top) and today's 0z run (bottom). You'll again see the PNA ridge west, the PV dropping SE out of Canada, the high pressure building in from the west, and the Low forming off the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Lastly, here's today's 0z CMC operational run. Again, you'll see the same features as mentioned above. The timing is a little different, but it's in the same ballpark. Also, the details like exact placement of the low and high and the exact placement of the 850 line are unimportant right now. The signal is quite strong for a storm at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I don't think the models have a good handle atm on the flow since it still pretty far out. Talking around 200 hours. But gfs, euro, cmc does all look similar with the flow to an extent. All show ridging extending into Alaska with a split flow s/w energy dropping out the NW with a stalled front along the Gulf Coast. Still way too early to get excited and on the specifics.... but the potential remains after this weekends rainstorm a front stalling along the coast. CAA working its way into the SE with overrunning eventually taking place and as the S/W drops out the NW that kicks off a LP center in the GOM. Sounds like what just happen this week. Agree CR the good point is the signal is there. CMC,EURO,GFS all have a LP of the SE coast next week. One feature is there too which seems like it is all the time is the pesky GL low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The CMC seems to be to coldest of the three.. But if the CMC is any where near to being correct. Gosh dog at the cold air. -20 850s near the VA border -10 850s near JAX FL and the 0c iso therm running through Orlando. That would be suggestive of low/mid 20s surface temps for VA,NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 would like a low pressure to come out of the gulf with cold air in place. then the low can go to the se coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The CMC seems to be to coldest of the three.. But if the CMC is any where near to being correct. Gosh dog at the cold air. -20 850s near the VA border -10 850s near JAX FL and the 0c iso therm running through Orlando. That would be suggestive of low/mid 20s surface temps for VA,NC Yeah, I noticed the CMC being very cold as well. The Euro looks cold, though not quite as cold, from 168 on, and it keeps Canada cold. It even starts to build a -NAO...but we've seen that before. The PNA ridge breaks off a block over AK, which should help keep cold air funneling into Canada, and it also allows undercutting and a split flow. The PV north of the Lakes will have energy rotating around it, which if improperly timed, will tend to mess up CAA and confluence in the NE, so the pattern isn't ideal. But if we can get a -NAO going, that will greatly help. Regarding other signals, the teleconnections off the CPC site are meh. There is no clear AO signal in the LR. The NAO looks positive, and the PNA looks positive, trending toward neutral. The MJO looks like it might eventually make its way into Phase 8, which would be good. And the CFS looks increasingly cold for March. Week one, looks much above normal with weeks 2-4 all below. Hopefully, that holds. That, combined with the look from the Weeklies, should be encouraging and should present another opportunity or two for the SE before winter is gone for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Robert has talked in length about March 1960 before in great detail. I remember him saying it was one of the greatest months EVER for winter weather in the south east. I know his post is here somewhere just don't have the time to dig it up. It was a really really good read. Not saying that's what will happen, but it does show the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Regardless of the details, there is a strong signal for a storm off the SE coast in the 2/26 - 2/28 time frame. The first image below is yesterday's 12z run (top) and 18z run (bottom) of the GFS operational. You'll notice the zone of high pressure to the west and the low pressure developing off the SE coast. The second image is today's GFS operational 0z run (top) and 6z run (bottom). You'll see the same signal. There is a PNA ridge out west and the PV is dropping SE out of Canada. For the 8-14 day timeframe centered on 03/01/14, March 1, 1980 was the #1 analog from the 06z GFS run, and the #2 analog from the overnight superensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 For the 8-14 day timeframe centered on 03/01/14, March 1, 1980 was the #1 analog from the 06z GFS run, and the #2 analog from the overnight superensemble Gotta love it, that is IMO the greatest NC snowstorm on record, more places got 6" or more from that storm statewide than any other storm I know of. Practically the entire central and eastern half of the state got more than a foot..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 For the 8-14 day timeframe centered on 03/01/14, March 1, 1980 was the #1 analog from the 06z GFS run, and the #2 analog from the overnight superensemble That is very nice right there. For visualization purposes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Robert has talked in length about March 1960 before in great detail. I remember him saying it was one of the greatest months EVER for winter weather in the south east. I know his post is here somewhere just don't have the time to dig it up. It was a really really good read. Not saying that's what will happen, but it does show the possibilities. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32061-the-mid-to-late-winter-of-1959-1960-and-similarities-to-2012/?hl=%2Bmarch+%2B1960 There is also a link back to his study of it from Eastern. Pretty awesome stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Robert has talked in length about March 1960 before in great detail. I remember him saying it was one of the greatest months EVER for winter weather in the south east. I know his post is here somewhere just don't have the time to dig it up. It was a really really good read. Not saying that's what will happen, but it does show the possibilities.3/60 was one of the wildest months for wintry weather in Atlanta (and North GA) history.For Atlanta (KATL) itself: 1) ~1" of ZR on 3/2 producing massive power outages. Also, 0.8" of wintry precip. accumulated. This is the storm that on 3/2-3 produced major snows of 8.8" at Hickory and 7.1" at Raleigh. 2) 3/4 and 3/5 both failed to get above 30 F! 3) March record low of 10 F on 3/5. 4) 0.8" of liquid precip. on 3/9. Whereas KATL (airport, which is south of town) had no measurable wintry precip., there was significant ZR on the southside and places very near (I believe Decatur did for example) and north of Atlanta had a second accumulating wintry event of the month with several inches. This storm produced a second major snow at both Hickory (9" on 3/9) and Raleigh (7" on 3/9-10). 5) 4" of snow from 0.52" of liquid equiv. on 3/11. At the time, this was the heaviest KATL snow in 20 years (since the big 1/23/1940 snow). There was 6-8" north of town! For many in N GA, this was the third major wintry precip. event of the month! 6) Six OTHER days had a trace of wintry precip. through 3/15. In total, a whopping nine days had wintry precip for the period 3/1-15! 7) Every morning low 30 F or colder through 3/14. 8) Daily lows all below normal through 3/27. Daily highs all below normal through 3/23. 9) The average temp. for the month as a whole was very close to the normal for January!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 3/60 was one of the wildest months for wintry weather in Atlanta (and North GA) history. For Atlanta (KATL) itself: 1) ~1" of ZR on 3/2 producing massive power outages. Also, 0.8" of wintry precip. accumulated. This is the storm that on 3/2-3 produced major snows of 8.8" at Hickory and 7.1" at Raleigh. 2) 3/4 and 3/5 both failed to get above 30 F! 3) March record low of 10 F on 3/5. 4) 0.8" of liquid precip. on 3/9. Whereas KATL (airport, which is south of town) had no measurable wintry precip., there was significant ZR on the southside and places very near (I believe Decatur did for example) and north of Atlanta had a second accumulating wintry event of the month with several inches. This storm produced a second major snow at both Hickory (9" on 3/9) and Raleigh (7" on 3/9-10). 5) 4" of snow from 0.52" of liquid equiv. on 3/11. At the time, this was the heaviest KATL snow in 20 years (since the big 1/23/1940 snow). There was 6-8" north of town! For many in N GA, this was the third major wintry precip. event of the month! 6) Six OTHER days had a trace of wintry precip. through 3/15. In total, a whopping nine days had wintry precip for the period 3/1-15! 7) Every morning low 30 F or colder through 3/14. 8) Daily lows all below normal through 3/27. Daily highs all below normal through 3/23. 9) The average temp. for the month as a whole was very close to the normal for January!! Awesome stuff, thanks Larry! 9 out of 15 days is just crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Awesome stuff, thanks Larry! 9 out of 15 days is just crazy You're welcome. The 12Z GFS is incoming and vs. yesterday's 18Z has a less intense cold shot to the north at hour 168 and dry, westerly 500 mb flow vs moist WSW flow on the 18Z that produced that major SE winter storm. Let's see how later days will be on this run as there may be more opportunities in the subsequent week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Awesome stuff, thanks Larry! 9 out of 15 days is just crazyYes it is. That's why, 64 years later, nothing approaching it has happened again. It's amazing how the legend hangs on. I cant tell you how many time during Feb. of a near snowless winter I have heard, "We get some of our biggest snows in March. Remember 1960.". Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yes it is. That's why, 64 years later, nothing approaching it has happened again. It's amazing how the legend hangs on. I cant tell you how many time during Feb. of a near snowless winter I have heard, "We get some of our biggest snows in March. Remember 1960.". Ugh. Neighbor lady across the street brought up 1960 during this last snow. She was a senior in high school then and they missed so many days she thought she'd never graduate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Euro EPS members are less than impressive for Winter weather into SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 For the 8-14 day timeframe centered on 03/01/14, March 1, 1980 was the #1 analog from the 06z GFS run, and the #2 analog from the overnight superensemble That is very nice right there. For visualization purposes: I'm ready for spring, but I can't deny I would love to have a storm like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Hey buddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Euro clown map give eastern NC over a foot. Too far out to talk specifics, but the models have been hinting at something next Tuesday and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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