franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nice snowstorm on the 12z Canadian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 All my dances will be canceled :-(. In fact, because I want it not to snow that weekend, we will get 20". I guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 All my dances will be canceled :-(. In fact, because I want it not to snow that weekend, we will get 20". I guarantee it. I think the rest of us could live with your sacrifice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nice snowstorm on the 12z Canadian! Is there an active southern stream shown during that timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 All my dances will be canceled :-(. In fact, because I want it not to snow that weekend, we will get 20". I guarantee it. We've been friends for a long time. I hate to be selfish about your dances. However.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Fwiw, the 12Z Euro ensemble mean hints at a nice CAD/ZR threat for the CAD regions sometime within 3/1-3. We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigflakesohappy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Another big snow would be amazing! This one was great - but went away fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Is there an active southern stream shown during that timeframe? Yeah. CMC, Euro,GFS all show the SJ becoming active again with embedded impluses in it. The pattern its showing it supportive of a miller A around the 26-27. Really its amazing at the potential for how cold it could get. Potential for deep Jan cold instead of late Feb/early March. Almost stupid cold for this time of year with potential the deepest layer of the PV just north of the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Would like to hear if Roberts thoughts...... http://wxsouth.com/?cat=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Would like to hear if Roberts thoughts...... http://wxsouth.com/?cat=144 Thanks! I see there was a long gap between his free posts, but sounds like interesting times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Thanks! I see there was a long gap between his free posts, but sounds like interesting times ahead! He has a lot of daily updates on his Facebook page most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 well DT and others say next wednesday time frame looks mighty interesting . any thoughts from our experts, of course I know that is 8 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yeah. CMC, Euro,GFS all show the SJ becoming active again with embedded impluses in it. The pattern its showing it supportive of a miller A around the 26-27. Really its amazing at the potential for how cold it could get. Potential for deep Jan cold instead of late Feb/early March. Almost stupid cold for this time of year with potential the deepest layer of the PV just north of the Great Lakes. Great thanks. That's something most of the time we're simply missing. With an active southern stream and cold air around I like our chances for at least a nice overrunning event. I don't see us getting another Miller A repeat at this point though....because even with a southern stream and cold, we'd needs some blocking and confluence to keep the cold locked in while the storm comes north. Doubt we get a good -NAO or a baffin ridge to do the job like last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Keep in mind that we can get really deep crazycold even into early march ( think Mar 1980), also nice to see the major models all agree that the overall pattern at least seems likely, timing and track and strength etc obviously still to work out, but anyhting next Tues night into Thursday mornign would fit the pattern for the last two events being 2 weeks later on the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It's amazing the consistency themodels have at that timeframe. Could it be possible to have two Miller A's in one winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It's amazing the consistency themodels have at that timeframe. Could it be possible to have two Miller A's in one winter?Of course it is. It has happened many times.Interesting look on the 18z GFS. I'm in for this period. We may not get a storm, but it looks like a pretty good opportunity and this is a pretty favored period for big storms, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Of course it is. It has happened many times. Interesting look on the 18z GFS. I'm in for this period. We may not get a storm, but it looks like a pretty good opportunity and this is a pretty favored period for big storms, IMO. Yeah James to much consistency among the models to ignore next week. It looks like the gfs really wants to amp up the southern stream. Correct me if I am wrong but it almost looks like the 18z gfs barely misses a phase on the storm for the 23rd over Texas. Once that energy gets off the coast it really deepens so I wonder if this is just a blip on the radar or if the gfs is hinting at some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Keep in mind that we can get really deep crazycold even into early march ( think Mar 1980), also nice to see the major models all agree that the overall pattern at least seems likely, timing and track and strength etc obviously still to work out, but anyhting next Tues night into Thursday mornign would fit the pattern for the last two events being 2 weeks later on the same day. This winter is somewhat mirroring 1980. During that winter eastern North Carolina had a couple of snow events prior to Charlotte receiving several snowfalls(7.3") that occurred during the second week of February. The weather turned milder during the second half of February 1980 with temperatures reaching above 70º on several occasions in Charlotte. It all came tumbling down with the March 1-2 snowstorm and the intense cold that accompanied it. Charlotte set its record high minimum temperature for the month of March on March 2, 1980 with a reading of 24º . It set its record low minimum temperature for the month of March on March 3, 1980 with a reading of 4º . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 holy god. zr to snow for kcae. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Fwiw, the 12Z Euro ensemble mean hints at a nice CAD/ZR threat for the CAD regions sometime within 3/1-3. We'll see! Yeah, I've been seeing a zr threat for early Mar. I was just out on the property looking at the damage. Lost several good trees with the tops right out of them. But in exchange I got two of the beetle killed huge pines down. So the ice takes away, then gives back when I discovered the top of one hung up 40 over the back fence. I had 4 dead pines down total, and all found the back fence, when each had 360 other degrees in which they could have fallen ....and the new one with the top out decided to make it 5 for the fence, lol. I hate ice storms...even when they do like I want, they don't! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 holy god. Shawn, i know what 850 temps are but what are 2M? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Shawn, i know what 850 temps are but what are 2M? surface basically. you're looking at it cold enough for ZR, but not quite at 850 for snow at that frame.. in kcae. You'd see ZR to snow as the low pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 surface basically. you're looking at it cold enough for ZR, but not quite at 850 for snow at that frame.. in kcae. You'd see ZR to snow as the low pulls away. Thx thats what i thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Thx thats what i thought. Here is the surface at the same time: EDIT: The warmest layer at the height of the storm is around -0.9c ... interesting. much too far out to even give much credit though. Definitely not biting until the Euro EPS members jump on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Been watching every GFS run since Thursday. Every now and then I pop over and look at the limited Euro maps that I can find for free that actually look readable. They seem to agree. The 850 temps have been pretty consistant. A storm or two has been showing, though the timing has waffled between the 24th and 27th. The surface freezing temps have been trending south every day. The JS has changed significantly since Thursday with a decent southern stream showing up. I am only an enthusiast, not a weather expert by any means, but at face value, it seems something is coming for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The 18z GFS looked quite a bit like the GFS runs for the last big storm a week or so out with it's showing of heavy snow in Arkansas, a suppressed storm in the GoM and then a big Carolina/NEGA snow/frozen event as the storm deepens off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The new Euro weeklies released today are ridiculous and don't end winter any time soon. No east coast ridge in sight, and by March 11th sends the PV into the lakes, west based -NAO, -AO blocking over the top, PV gets trapped for much of March, just keeps spinning in on itself. By March 21st (last frame of the Weeklies) deep east coast trough and tall west coast ridge, PV is below Hudson bay 540 line to Atlanta. Just an absurd run of the weeklies and if it's right, we're in for one cold March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The new Euro weeklies released today are ridiculous and don't end winter any time soon. No east coast ridge in sight, and by March 11th sends the PV into the lakes, west based -NAO, -AO blocking over the top, PV gets trapped for much of March, just keeps spinning in on itself. By March 21st (last frame of the Weeklies) deep east coast trough and tall west coast ridge, PV is below Hudson bay 540 line to Atlanta. Just an absurd run of the weeklies and if it's right, we're in for one cold March. The control run is insane. Not that it really matters as specifics are pointless at this time frame, but that might even be a major winter storm it shows on March 16th for a lot of us, haha. --------- BTW, I'd love for that big fluff bomb on the 18z GFS at D9 to verify. Looked like a good 6-10" of fluffy snow for a lot of us (and ice in SC...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The new Euro weeklies released today are ridiculous and don't end winter any time soon. No east coast ridge in sight, and by March 11th sends the PV into the lakes, west based -NAO, -AO blocking over the top, PV gets trapped for much of March, just keeps spinning in on itself. By March 21st (last frame of the Weeklies) deep east coast trough and tall west coast ridge, PV is below Hudson bay 540 line to Atlanta. Just an absurd run of the weeklies and if it's right, we're in for one cold March. Thanks Jon for the run down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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