superjames1992 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The 12z EURO doesn't limit qpf in the NW piedmont. They wrote that after the latest EURO was out, but they must be talking about the 0z EURO. The 12z is a classic winter storm for a large area of NC, including the NW piedmont. We had large late March snowstorms in 81 and 83, so not unprecedented. Apparently, there were a slew of late March storms in the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s. There was also the April 19, 1987 storm in Raleigh that dropped a couple inches. It would be nice if we could return to a regional climatic pattern where late winter (or early spring) storms become more prevalent again. That's probably just climate wishcasting, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Just looked at the snow total,23 1/4, for you this winter. I'm setting at 23 in. and we may not be through. My point is would you have ever believed we would have this much snow with a positive NAO ? No Sir, Goes to show you there is a lot of different drivers in the weather! Can't always count on one driver!!! I would love to see another big snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 No Sir, Goes to show you there is a lot of different drivers in the weather! Can't always count on one driver!!! I would love to see another big snow though. Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Posted in The Banter Thread. GSP AFD seems 'excited'. GSP AFD .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM WED...AS ONE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW DEPART NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...A SECOND SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO ROTATE THRU THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OUT OF THE MIDWEST BEHIND IT. A FAIRLY WEAK BUT MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACRS OUR REGION THRU SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE HIGH. BEST DPVA MOVES ACRS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK TROUGHING GIVING WAY TO NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY SEES THE UPPER PATTERN REAMPLIFY AS CLIPPER DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST...AND A NEW PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES IN THE SRN APPALACHIAN REGION. GFS/EC BOTH DEVELOP A SFC LOW OFF THE COAST OF GA AND NRN FL IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION. CMC LOOKS FISHY...IS VIEWED AS AN OUTLIER...AND WILL BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. THE LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE ON BOTH GFS/EC BY TUE NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN TRACK WHICH LEAD TO DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT EFFECTS IN OUR AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER WITH THE SFC LOW THAN THE EC...AND THEREFORE COLDER AND WETTER OVER THE CWFA. EC PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME PTYPE CONCERNS TUE BUT THE GFS IS MORE THREATENING...BRINGING A WIDE RANGE OF PTYPES TO MOST OF THE FA. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE DECENT SUPPORT FOR SUFFICIENT COLD AIR FROM 12Z GFS...00Z EC AND THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE. PSU NORMALIZED ANOMALIES OF 850MB TEMPS RUN FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE 2-3 STD DEV ON THE COLD SIDE. HOWEVER SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF THE LOW TRACKS ARE FAIRLY WELL SPREAD ACRS THE OPNL GFS-EC SPECTRUM...THOUGH MORE MEMBERS FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY AND OFFSHORE EC TRACK. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF QPF SUPPORTIVE OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ARE LOW. I WAS NOT SHY ABOUT INCLUDING WINTRY PTYPES IN THE FCST...BUT HAVE PEAKED POPS IN SOLID CHC RANGE AND KEPT QPF LOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS. OTHER THAN A BRIEF SHOT OF NW FLOW SNOW IN THE MTNS EARLY WED...DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I have not seen the Euro ENS but the 12z CMC Ens mean is on board. Looks very similar to the 12z CMC Ens SLP track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Euro ENS are ridiculous, big hit. Euro Ens looks similar to last run with overall features, but a bit stronger with the sfc low off the SE coast, a bit colder, and slightly better with the digging trough. 850 0 deg at warmest point of the storm runs from GA Mtns to Laurinburg, NC to Greenville, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Euro Ens looks similar to last run with overall features, but a bit stronger with the sfc low off the SE coast, a bit colder, and slightly better with the digging trough. 850 0 deg at warmest point of the storm runs from GA Mtns to Laurinburg, NC to Greenville, NC. For NC, the 0Z Euro ens. mean had mainly 1-2" of SN on 3/25-6. The 12Z Euro ens. mean had ~1" more with 2-3" of SN, which should be a pretty legit clown due to a relative lack of IP/ZR. Also, in upstate and far NE GA, there is ~1" on the 12Z vs. less on the 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Apparently, there were a slew of late March storms in the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s. There was also the April 19, 1987 storm in Raleigh that dropped a couple inches. It would be nice if we could return to a regional climatic pattern where late winter (or early spring) storms become more prevalent again. That's probably just climate wishcasting, though. James, I had seen several posts from you about the early 70's having several NC winter storms in late March. I already had known about the major 3/25-6/71 SE storm affecting GA/SC/NC. I hadn't known about any other winter storms in the early 70's because ATL/SAV hadn't received any sig. wintry precip. However, I just finished researching old late March daily data for 1972-4 and found that they all produced sig. wintry precip. in the piedmont of NC in late March: 3/25-6/71, 3/25/72, 3/21/73, and 3/25/74. Even more amazing is that the 3/25-6 period produced sig to major wintry precip. during the 3/25-6 period during three years of that four year period!! (Aside: there was also a big snow 3/24/1983.) By the way, at GSO, there was also moderate ZR on 3/23/1989 and 1.2" of SN at GSO on 3/30/2003. With there being a progged threat for late 3/24 through 3/25, perhaps this has an even better chance than I had realized based on this climo pattern, especially for NC and extra especially for GSO. Edit: I just discovered that GSO got a whopping 7.6" 3/22-23/1981! Interestingly, although the coldest was 32, it was mainly 33-34 when it was snowing. I need to add this one to my list for GSO late March hits. However, RDU, CLT, and GSP got only a T as it was too warm for accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Per the 0z gfs, some in NC are cold enough at 850's for snow Sunday night. I really haven't been paying attention to Sunday so not sure if other models are close to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 At one point, there was talk of the possibility of another system the first week of April. I know we're all busy withthe upcoming storm Tuesday, but just wondering what April is looking like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 MAR 21st 12Z GFS model run continues to support a winter storm across the piedmont to the coastal plain of North Carolina for this upcoming Tuesday. Unusual run to run consistency and model agreement (GFS & ECMWF) this far out leads to higher confidence than normal. However, until the medium range models pick it up and the attending trough itself is sampled across N.A. I have not completely bought into these solutions. Interestingly, as RDUWX mentions a couple of posts up the models have been trending cooler for a weaker low moving across the state Sunday night suggesting a change over from rain/mix to mix/snow in many places across the northern half of NC similar to several storms we have had throughout this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Goodbye winter of 13-14......it was fun while it lasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Goodbye winter of 13-14......it was fun while it lasted Not so fast, Missy, I have another cold shot coming in the 1st third of April..... and being a good Aries, I deserve it...., and another maybe mid month T There is always a cold, windy day Masters weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Winter just doesn't want to give up. But there maybe flakes and slop flying early tomorrow morning from the foot hills into the northern half of NC into southern VA. RAH hasn't mentioned anything. Blacksburg mentioned a R/S mix possible east of the Blue Ridge. Time frame looks to be roughly 4am to about 11 and will be associated with the departing UL that will bring snow to the mountains tonight and tomorrow. But it appears temps aloft tomorrow morning appear marginal and will be precip rate dependent. Cold air will begin moving into the area tonight on a W/SW flow then NW with the foothills and northern piedmont dropping near 40. It very well may not snow/sleet in those areas due to the angle of the exiting trough axis. Downslope/drying will be starting as soon as it pulls away from the mountians. But right now if anybody see anything CLT,HKY triad north maybe the sweet spot to see flurries/sleet in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Wasn't sure where to post but just saw J/B sat summary.He's showing next winter forecast . If you enjoyed this winter,cold and snow, you'll probably like next winter as well.Can we see 09/10 repeat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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