griteater Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Yeah, um, wake up people! Euro time: You put everybody to sleep earlier Euro clown has 7-9 inches for Raleigh (across Wake County) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 This run of Euro is general idea of what it's ensemble mean has been showing all along. Sfc low is at 988 off Hatteras. Has Charlotte to Raleigh below 35 deg throughout, colder to the NW. I actually thought the 12z GFS run looked better from a storm standpoint. Both the GFS and Euro are now backing the flow in the southeast to the WSW a bit, allowing for the precip to build north. GFS was light on QPF, but it wouldn't take much to ramp it up. Do 850s stay below freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 You put everybody to sleep earlier Euro clown has 7-9 inches for Raleigh (across Wake County) Haha. Sorry man. This answers my previous question, I guess. Thanks, sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 WxSouth added 2 new photos. European Model (GFS too somewhat) going with more realistic threat of yet ANOTHER Winter Storm next week . Keeping an eye on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday time frame in upper Southeast, Tennesee Valley, MidAtlantic. Too early to dish out the details, but it's looking less like a true Miller B, and more like Gulf Overrunning turning into Southeast Coastal, then Up the East Coast as a Big Winter Storm.Early indications are this one is colder aloft than the recent storms, so more ...than just Virginia and North Carolina could get in on this one...even possibly northern parts of Miss, Ala, GA and much of Tennesee. Working on big update at www.wxsouth.com Here's the latest ECMWF run. Still shows the major 1050 Arctic High in Canada, plenty of cold air coming right back both before, during and especially AFTER the storm. European Turns this into an incredible Blizzard just off the New England Coast, one of the strongest progged in a long time (960's MB of pressure!) ...not sure yet on it's track or strength. Monday and Tuesday maps shown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Nice hit for northern NC on 12z EURO for next Tuesday. Yep, the 12Z Euro does give NC a major snow on Tue 3/25 (ala 3/25-6/1971 and 3/24/1983) and the clown for NC is believable in this case since 850's are below 0C for all but the SE portion of the state. Per the 12Z Euro clown, all of NC except the SE and SW (mountains) portions get 4-8"! The SW part gets 1-4". N SC gets 1-4" and far NE GA gets 1-3" (heaviest near the NC border, of course). Edit: The low's track a classic Miller A track (N Gulf to mid GA coast to just offshore SC/NC) that gives the SE US its biggest snows. Also, there is even a little bit of CAD from a modest NE high that feeds in some low level cold air. The Euro's two meter temp.s' are undoubtedly too high in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Nice hit for northern NC on 12z EURO for next Tuesday. Snow maps actually have all of central and western nc with accumulations. Looks like surface freezing temps run down in the usual CAD locations. 850's are supportive of snow for a good chunk of NC. This run of Euro is general idea of what it's ensemble mean has been showing all along. Sfc low is at 988 off Hatteras. Has Charlotte to Raleigh below 35 deg throughout, colder to the NW. I actually thought the 12z GFS run looked better from a storm standpoint. Both the GFS and Euro are now backing the flow in the southeast to the WSW a bit, allowing for the precip to build north. GFS was light on QPF, but it wouldn't take much to ramp it up. Euro clown has 7-9 inches for Raleigh (across Wake County) Wow, great trends now. The models are still being consistent with the threat. Might be time to get excited about next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Does anyone know what is the NAO is scheduled to be for next week ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Do 850s stay below freezing? 850mb low takes a more west to east track, from central Bama to just south of Augusta, to Cape Fear. 850 0 deg at its warmest is roughly GA Mtns to Charlotte to Norfolk. Greensboro doesn't get warmer than -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Wow, that's a pretty good hit for Charlotte. For this time of the season, an almost historic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Does anyone know what is the NAO is scheduled to be for next week ? Right on schedule, it looks to remain positive. No change from the ENTIRE winter. Unbelievable, really: Edit: Maybe not the ENTIRE winter, but most of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 .85 total QPF for KCLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 850mb low takes a more west to east track, from central Bama to just south of Augusta, to Cape Fear. 850 0 deg at its warmest is roughly GA Mtns to Charlotte to Norfolk. Greensboro doesn't get warmer than -2 That sounds like a pretty decent track. Nice to see an operational show a big hitter as we get a little closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 .91 total for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 WxSouth (Robert) makes a good point about the temperatures aloft looking more supportive (right now)...that's why I've been a little interested in this one (late March caveats of course). Would like to see a good coastal low / coastal front with High hanging in a bit over the northeast to get some low level damming going for the boundary layer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Also .91 for UZA(Rock Hill). 1.04 for Monroe. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 WxSouth (Robert) makes a good point about the temperatures aloft looking more supportive (right now)...that's why I've been a little interested in this one (late March caveats of course). Would like to see a good coastal low / coastal front with High hanging in a bit over the northeast to get some low level damming going for the boundary layer temps. I really dig the timing right now. Starts snowing in the middle of the night to cool everything down with the hammer dropping mid morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I really dig the timing right now. Starts snowing in the middle of the night to cool everything down with the hammer dropping mid morning. It's crazy how much snow would fall for late March. The issue is always the models seldom have the timing right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The 12Z Euro's modeled 3/25 storm is a cross between the 3/25-6/1971 Miller A/B blend that gave ATL-AHN major ZR and huge snows to far NE GA and into the W Carolinas along with some IP/ZR thanks in part to very nice CAD and the 3/24/1983 Miller A that blasted N GA, N SC, and a good portion of NC with really big snows with essentially no CAD. I still have some hope here in the ATL-AHN corridor but we need slightly colder air than what is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Yeah, um, wake up people! Euro time: LOL, you could just see from the previous runs and the ensembles the Euro was due for a big run, to be honest I thought it could have been a little bigger, looked to be a partial phase when it's passing us and doesn't fully phase until after it passes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I'm glad robert is seeing the over running potential too. Cause it could be pretty snowy around here starting Sunday through Wednesday. Euro is just crazy. Could top the Feb storm if its right. Man this is crazy that its late March instead of late Janurary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 looks like 12z Euro drops .62qpf as snow here in N.Foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 UKMet looks similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 looks like 12z Euro drops .62qpf as snow here in N.Foothills Just looked at the snow total,23 1/4, for you this winter. I'm setting at 23 in. and we may not be through. My point is would you have ever believed we would have this much snow with a positive NAO ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 looks like 12z Euro drops .62qpf as snow here in N.Foothills Just noticed your snow total,23 1/4 for this winter. I'm setting at 23 in and we may not be through. My point is would you have ever believed we could have this much snow without A -NAO ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 RAH has next week on it's radar MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A STRONG 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVEACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY EVENING...AFAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE BEGINNING OF A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT.INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILLHOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 50S. MONDAY NIGHT...CYCLOGENESISOFF OF THE FL/GA COAST BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM.MODELS DIFFER ON THE PATH OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS CLOSER TO THECOAST AND THE ECMWF FURTHER OUT TO SEA. IN EITHER CASE...THE WEDGEFRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW COMES UP THE COAST. PARTIALTHICKNESSES AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION INTHE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE INDICATE THAT AT LEAST WITH THE GFSSCENARIO...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A TRANSITIONZONE OF MAINLY FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING.THE ECMWF LIMITS QPF TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THE PATHOF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT PRODUCES LESS OF A WINTER P-TYPESCENARIO...ESPECIALLY FOR FOLKS IN THE NW PIEDMONT. WHILE IT IS TOOEARLY TOO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...AT LEAST SOME OF THE INGREDIENTSARE IN PLACE FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY MORNING AND WILLINTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY MORNING BEFORETRANSITIONING ALL TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MID 40S TO LOW50S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Also .91 for UZA(Rock Hill). 1.04 for Monroe. Impressive. Do you know the total for shelby-hickory area. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 RAH has next week on it's radar The 12z EURO doesn't limit qpf in the NW piedmont. They wrote that after the latest EURO was out, but they must be talking about the 0z EURO. The 12z is a classic winter storm for a large area of NC, including the NW piedmont. We had large late March snowstorms in 81 and 83, so not unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Euro ENS are ridiculous, big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The 12z EURO doesn't limit qpf in the NW piedmont. They wrote that after the latest EURO was out, but they must be talking about the 0z EURO. The 12z is a classic winter storm for a large area of NC, including the NW piedmont. We had large late March snowstorms in 81 and 83, so not unprecedented. Yeah, they definitely wrote that before the new Euro was out. Yeah, late March '81 was a biggie from AVL to GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Euro ENS are ridiculous, big hit. I have not seen the Euro ENS but the 12z CMC Ens mean is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.