Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion III

[superjames1992]

The Euro looks similar to the GFS. Close... It's cold enough for most of NC, but the moisture doesn't really get inland of the coastal plain. Not a bad look, though...

The Euro lays down the hammer after the near miss with some ridiculously cold temperatures for late March.

[mackerel_sky]

I know it's TWC , but they have my coldest high next week at 60! Is any model that warm? GSP discussion from this AM sounds encouraging!

[FallsLake]

18z GFS has a little more precip. Below is the 24 precip totals ending at hour 168. 850s run generally through N. Georga through Up-state SC to SE NC. **maybe a couple of inches from Greenville SC to Charlotte to Raleigh. Still not bad for this many day out.  

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_168_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=precip_p24&fhr=168&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140319+06+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

Edit: I ment 6z GFS

[packbacker]

Still some nice hits on the Euro ENS, the members look fairly good for day 7.

[Cold Rain]

6z GFS looks decent. Looks like there are some decent hits on the GEFS too. The concern I have is the high out in the west moving in fast enough.

[Tacoma]

I know it's TWC , but they have my coldest high next week at 60! Is any model that warm? GSP discussion from this AM sounds encouraging!

well in one breath gsp says moisture will be moved south of wnc and the upstate on Monday due to the high pressure to the north and then gsp says they are leaning toward more cold and moisture for the area.  which is it,,,,, moisture and cold or cold and no moisture.  I'm confused with the write up from GSP this morning. 

[Brick Tamland]

18z GFS has a little more precip. Below is the 24 precip totals ending at hour 168. 850s run generally through N. Georga through Up-state SC to SE NC. **maybe a couple of inches from Greenville SC to Charlotte to Raleigh. Still not bad for this many day out.  

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_168_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=precip_p24&fhr=168&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140319+06+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

Yes, it is crazy that we actually have a shot at a couple of inches of snow during the laste week of March. The models have been pretty consistent showing the chance, so maybe it's legit.

[Jon]

6z GFS looks decent. Looks like there are some decent hits on the GEFS too. The concern I have is the high out in the west moving in fast enough.

Yeah, same here. Seems like it's likely to be like the last system...except probably even more of a disappointment. High moves in too slow for us in NC to really get in on the action and DC/VA will get hit again. The high placement is off even if it did pick up speed, and chances of a storm bombing off the coast with perfect timing of cold funneling in the western side of the system is slim to me. Screams cold chasing moisture. Also this looks like GA/TN/W NC folks storm versus a RDU storm, just per the setup they could get backend snow with the moisture left over assuming a closer to coast track and we'd get zilch frozen. Obviously not on the models yet but it wouldn't be surprised if it trended NW.

[griteater]

6z GFS looks decent. Looks like there are some decent hits on the GEFS too. The concern I have is the high out in the west moving in fast enough.

Cold R, I think the high exiting the Northeast is going to have to hold the cold rather than the midwest high getting in here fast enough.  Could be a case where the mid levels are cold enough, but we struggle with the boundary layer.  And yes, going by 850's, there were quite a few 'hits' on the 06z GFS Ensemble members.

 

Overnight Euro Ens looked a little better.  A bit more of a storm signal with the trough axis bottoming out a bit more to the west, more toward the Miss River, less Ohio Valley Low look, Northeast high a bit stronger (though still retreating), and a bit of CAD look.  850 0 deg from GA Mtns to Pinehurst, to Greenville, NC.  Sfc low from central FL to off Hatteras.

 

I know it's TWC , but they have my coldest high next week at 60! Is any model that warm? GSP discussion from this AM sounds encouraging!

A MORE DOMINANT LOW SHOULD EMERGE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAYNIGHT...ON THE GULF COAST IN THE ECMWF OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULAIN THE GFS. COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW AS THE LOWMOVES EAST NEAR NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHEDCLOSELY TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FOR OURFORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. UNTIL WE HAVE GREATERCONFIDENCE TOWARD AN OUTCOME AND SINCE THIS IS NEARLY A WEEKAWAY...WE WILL START LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF COLDER TEMPS ANDMORE PRECIP.

[FallsLake]

6z GFS snow coverage at hour 162:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=19&model_init_hh=06&fhour=162&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[griteater]

Here's the Euro Ens...as sfc low is off N FL coast, sfc high is still in the northeast, with a bit of a damming signal

 

[griteater]

well in one breath gsp says moisture will be moved south of wnc and the upstate on Monday due to the high pressure to the north and then gsp says they are leaning toward more cold and moisture for the area.  which is it,,,,, moisture and cold or cold and no moisture.  I'm confused with the write up from GSP this morning. 

 

On the bolded, they were talking about the initial front that drags in the cold air behind it.

[Cold Rain]

 

Cold R, I think the high exiting the Northeast is going to have to hold the cold rather than the midwest high getting in here fast enough.  Could be a case where the mid levels are cold enough, but we struggle with the boundary layer.  And yes, going by 850's, there were quite a few 'hits' on the 06z GFS Ensemble members.

 

I have already given up on the NE high, lol! I am watching for reinforcements. Actually, if the NE high hangs in longer, like you suggest, I think it'll end up resulting in a similar solution as what Jon suggests. Either way, a sliding HP off the NE coast is not a snow setup. So should this solution verify, I would expect another ice threat, regardless of what the 850s look like now.

I'm not going to go back and look it up, but if memory serves, the GFS solution from the other day looked much better with the HP placement, which would allow a real chance of cold air being drawn into the developing storm.

With a departing high and an incoming storm into a modifying airmass in late March, I don't think the odds are very much in our favor. CAD regions could get a little nuisance ice, though.

[FallsLake]

 

 

I have already given up on the NE high, lol! I am watching for reinforcements. Actually, if the NE high hangs in longer, like you suggest, I think it'll end up resulting in a similar solution as what Jon suggests. Either way, a sliding HP off the NE coast is not a snow setup. So should this solution verify, I would expect another ice threat, regardless of what the 850s look like now.

I'm not going to go back and look it up, but if memory serves, the GFS solution from the other day looked much better with the HP placement, which would allow a real chance of cold air being drawn into the developing storm.

With a departing high and an incoming storm into a modifying airmass in late March, I don't think the odds are very much in our favor. CAD regions could get a little nuisance ice, though.

Any winter weather is not favorable in March. But, we've had three so far. At this point we can throw odds out the window. **not saying we will get another storm; it just wouldn't suprise me.

[superjames1992]

We've done well with retreating highs/cold this year. I've said it before, but we seem to do moisture chasing the cold much better than cold chasing the moisture.

I'm all-in.

I've had two of the most major ice storms in a decade here over the last few weeks, so I'm pretty well just tossing climo at this point.

[Jon]

 

 

I have already given up on the NE high, lol! I am watching for reinforcements. Actually, if the NE high hangs in longer, like you suggest, I think it'll end up resulting in a similar solution as what Jon suggests. Either way, a sliding HP off the NE coast is not a snow setup. So should this solution verify, I would expect another ice threat, regardless of what the 850s look like now.

I'm not going to go back and look it up, but if memory serves, the GFS solution from the other day looked much better with the HP placement, which would allow a real chance of cold air being drawn into the developing storm.

With a departing high and an incoming storm into a modifying airmass in late March, I don't think the odds are very much in our favor. CAD regions could get a little nuisance ice, though.

Yeah, next frame tells the tale. Love the mslp position on the ensembles for Central NC but that NE high exiting stage right quickly isn't going to cut it...High over Nova Scotia.

 

 

This setup on the GEM with the inland low is interesting, if the cold was more like the GFS it could mean business for N GA/TN/E SC on back end.

 

See the pointed tip anomaly over southern WV, Canadian seeing a two-low type system or is confused about the development of the low that far off the coast. If the high comes in like the GFS we could get interior wintry precip in the areas I previously mentioned. Don't like it for me

[packbacker]

 

 

I have already given up on the NE high, lol! I am watching for reinforcements. Actually, if the NE high hangs in longer, like you suggest, I think it'll end up resulting in a similar solution as what Jon suggests. Either way, a sliding HP off the NE coast is not a snow setup. So should this solution verify, I would expect another ice threat, regardless of what the 850s look like now.

I'm not going to go back and look it up, but if memory serves, the GFS solution from the other day looked much better with the HP placement, which would allow a real chance of cold air being drawn into the developing storm.

With a departing high and an incoming storm into a modifying airmass in late March, I don't think the odds are very much in our favor. CAD regions could get a little nuisance ice, though.

 

This is a pretty darn cold look, of course we may have the pesky lakes low to deal with that may turn this into a miller b…. but I think we will see the HP evolve much differently as we get closer.  With the ridge as shown below it argues for something not climbing the coast though, IMO.

 

[Cold Rain]

You guys are right, of course...nothing to freak out over yet. The depictions will change as we get closer. I like the odds better for James' area, but not so much for me...yet. That's a cold look on the GEFS ^ no doubt. Still a lot to watch. Lot's of things can mess up a winter storm...and they're magnified in late March. Still, it's fun to track, and there's still plenty of reasons to remain interested in this.

[FLweather]

I know the models are generally having a hard time with placements of the S/W with next weeks storm alot to be figured out on every changing model runs. But with the deep trough thats suppose to develop into this weekend into next week has alot of engery in the H5 level

 

Not saying its going to happen. Which really atm between the euro/gfs overall looking they're having problems. But with the front pushing through this weekend acting as a focus and the embedded s/ws  leading up to the big event next week. From the 23-26 could be cold and stormy.

 

Honestly alot of folks maybe overlooking it there is potential for parts of VA/NC to get some wintry weather 23/24th time frame before the supposely big dog on 25/26th behind and along the surface front.

[Cold Rain]

 

I know the models are generally having a hard time with placements of the S/W with next weeks storm alot to be figured out on every changing model runs. But with the deep trough thats suppose to develop into this weekend into next week has alot of engery in the H5 level

 

Not saying its going to happen. Which really atm between the euro/gfs overall looking they're having problems. But with the front pushing through this weekend acting as a focus and the embedded s/ws  leading up to the big event next week. From the 23-26 could be cold and stormy.

 

Honestly alot of folks maybe overlooking it there is potential for parts of VA/NC to get some wintry weather 23/24th time frame before the supposely big dog on 25/26th behind and along the surface front.

That's a good point. You guys stand the best chance for that. Roxboro and PGV have been in the sweet spot this year.

[Cold Rain]

12z GFS is unimpressive. Maybe some light snow in northern sections of NC around 144, but certainly not a big dog. And even that "light snow" look might actually be something else. Who knows what warm layers might exist outside the 850 layer. Also don't know about surface temps.

I'm starting to feel like this is going to need to turn around in a hurry.

[FLweather]

 

That's a good point. You guys stand the best chance for that. Roxboro and PGV have been in the sweet spot this year.

 

Yeah this area into the triad always does well for some reason. Its amazing at the micro climates within the state. Even just being roughly 1.5 hours away from RDU.

 

 

It comes down to how much cold air can really push. And if any potential snowfall for TN/NC/VA. Then  that eventually setting up the 25/26th. Around here over the last couple runs of GFS has been showing limited moisture. But temps are extremely border line. Some runs have been showing temps aloft 1-3C with near 40 surface temp.Other runs surface temp 32-35 but cold enough aloft.

 

But generally looking at the H5 level while not picture perfect looking show potential for overunning into the SE. Not completely sure the models are handling the temps and moisture to well.

 

But the GFS and NAM today 12z. Moisture is trying to build back into the cold air. Also notice the surface front placement. Working its way through VA/NC/SC/GA

 

GFS

NAM

 

 

The only thing we can do is watch and wait. The potential exist though some people getting in on some fun around 23/24 and with 25/26. 

[FallsLake]

12z GFS is unimpressive. Maybe some light snow in northern sections of NC around 144, but certainly not a big dog. And even that "light snow" look might actually be something else. Who knows what warm layers might exist outside the 850 layer. Also don't know about surface temps.

I'm starting to feel like this is going to need to turn around in a hurry.

I agree. The precip looks about the same as the 6z (which would give RDU around 2"), but the 850 temps are retreating northward during the event which tells me so will the surface temps. In late March we need a strong feed of cold air (locked in). **still far out but as you stated unimpressive.

[superjames1992]

I'm not sure if any of us are really looking for a big dog out of this. A 1-3" non-street sticker event that melts within hours after the March fireball rises into the heavens would be a huge win.

I'm not saying that is likely, either, but I'll take whatever.

Timing will be very important. We really need this to come through at night, if possible. Daytime will lead to all kinds of issues, especially if rates are unimpressive (sun angle, BL temperatures, etc.).

Just one more 1-3" event will put GSO at close to the same totals achieved in the winter of 2009-2010 (MBY is trailing GSO by a couple inches, though, despite living 3-4 miles east of the airport). It doesn't feel like this winter has been quite that good, but I guess it has been since late January. December and the first three weeks of January left a lot to be desired, but the second half of winter has really delivered.

[FLweather]

I'm not sure if any of us are really looking for a big dog out of this. A 1-3" non-street sticker event that melts within hours after the March fireball rises into the heavens would be a huge win.

I'm not saying that is likely, either, but I'll take whatever.

Timing will be very important. We really need this to come through at night, if possible. Daytime will lead to all kinds of issues, especially if rates are unimpressive (sun angle, BL temperatures, etc.).

Just one more 1-3" event will put GSO at close to the same totals achieved in the winter of 2009-2010 (MBY is trailing GSO by a couple inches, though, despite living 3-4 miles east of the airport). It doesn't feel like this winter has been quite that good, but I guess it has been since late January. December and the first three weeks of January left a lot to be desired, but the second half of winter has really delivered.

 

 

Those are good points. But its possible for it to be a "big dog" considering the time of year. It just comes down to the pieces coming together at the right time and place. But maybe I shouldn't have used the term big dog to differentiate between the time frames.

 

As far as timing statement in bold... thats irrelevant. Look at this month so far the key is the cold air being delivered in the first place.

 

But wise thing to do is watch the models still 84+ hours out to anything starting.  

 

BTW GFS granted its light light precip would be rain to wintry mix for most of the northern half of NC including the triad and triangle starting predawn hours of Sunday Morning. A Backdoor cold front is also showing up.

[packbacker]

I'm not sure if any of us are really looking for a big dog out of this. A 1-3" non-street sticker event that melts within hours after the March fireball rises into the heavens would be a huge win.

I'm not saying that is likely, either, but I'll take whatever.

Timing will be very important. We really need this to come through at night, if possible. Daytime will lead to all kinds of issues, especially if rates are unimpressive (sun angle, BL temperatures, etc.).

Just one more 1-3" event will put GSO at close to the same totals achieved in the winter of 2009-2010 (MBY is trailing GSO by a couple inches, though, despite living 3-4 miles east of the airport). It doesn't feel like this winter has been quite that good, but I guess it has been since late January. December and the first three weeks of January left a lot to be desired, but the second half of winter has really delivered for GSO, PGV and CLT. 

 

Fixed above, RDU is still sucking wind sitting at climo.    Storm threat still looks interesting for next week, still 6 days away.  Starting to get in the Euro's wheelhouse, inside day 5, would be nice if Op run came around a little bit more in the next couple of runs.

[Cold Rain]

 

Fixed above, RDU is still sucking wind sitting at climo.    Storm threat still looks interesting for next week, still 6 days away.  Starting to get in the Euro's wheelhouse, inside day 5, would be nice if Op run came around a little bit more in the next couple of runs.

 

Next year will be our year, Pack...especially if you come in strong with an avatar!!

[WSNC]

Nice hit for northern NC on 12z EURO for next Tuesday.

Snow maps actually have all of central and western nc with accumulations. Looks like surface freezing temps run down in the usual CAD locations. 850's are supportive of snow for a good chunk of NC.

[Cold Rain]

 

Nice hit for northern NC on 12z EURO for next Tuesday.

Snow maps actually have all of central and western nc with accumulations. Looks like surface freezing temps run down in the usual CAD locations. 850's are supportive of snow for a good chunk of NC.

 

Yeah, um, wake up people! Euro time:

[griteater]

This run of Euro is general idea of what it's ensemble mean has been showing all along.  Sfc low is at 988 off Hatteras.  Has Charlotte to Raleigh below 35 deg throughout, colder to the NW.

 

I actually thought the 12z GFS run looked better from a storm standpoint.  Both the GFS and Euro are now backing the flow in the southeast to the WSW a bit, allowing for the precip to build north.  GFS was light on QPF, but it wouldn't take much to ramp it up.