FLweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What an interesting turn of events. About ready to call it a season then the gfs, nam reels me back in. I must admit I have a bad case of spring fever. Ready for a good solid stretch of 70-80 weather no higher than that. Much rather have something close to the 12z nam, gfs. A cold rain followed by a pasting of snow. 18z nam looks funky overall and a nasty ice event. Alot of zr/sleet with the ULL in SC and NC. Frit. There looks to be alot of moisture over the mountains via 18z nam. But face value of nam would be cold rain for the mountains nasty ice for the foothills piedmont. Not sure if it is entirely correct but there is a significant warm nose present from below 850 to 700mb. That warm nose is near 5 degrees C. Mid 30s to near 40 in the warm nose. That would be a pretty insane inversion for this time of year. 20s in the piedmont with temps near 40 in the 5-10K foot range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 There's not even a mention of snow or Ice in my forecast! cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 There's not even a mention of snow or Ice in my forecast! cold rain RAH is more bullish. I've got Rain/Snow Likely on Monday and a Chance of Snow Monday night on my point forecast, FWIW. The 18z GFS and 18z NAM were very interesting. Apparently, we can't get ice any other time of year these days, but March is the new prime climo period for ice storms. --- Interestingly, out to the end of its run, the 18z RGEM appears to be south of the 18z NAM. EDIT: Whee, looks like JoshM fired up a thread for this potential event at D3-D5: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43201-318-319-icy-event/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Guys how's Georgia looking? Is it a close call? And guys it's snowed out a Bristol race before. It can do it again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 WRAL showed snow for a lot of central NC Monday night as things wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This would be incredibly unusual to have back to back ice storms in March. What a pattern, if it turns out this way! CR, Interestingly, RDU had two ZR/IP's in 3/1960 (2-3rd, which included SN at first, and 16th) and 2 in 3/1978 (3-4th and 8-9th)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 CR, Interestingly, RDU had two ZR/IP's in 3/1960 (2-3rd, which included SN at first, and 16th) and 2 in 3/1978 (3-4th and 8-9th)! Well, that shows it can happen! This March, so far, the action has been just west. Hopefully, we'll get one more shot with this one. By the way, what is your source for all your awesome research? I'm sure you have many....but what's the best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 CR, Interestingly, RDU had two ZR/IP's in 3/1960 (2-3rd, which included SN at first, and 16th) and 2 in 3/1978 (3-4th and 8-9th)! Do the models have climo in their equations? I ask, because the last storm and now this potential are trending colder 3-4 days out. Just wondering if the rising temp avgs in March give the models warm biases that they can only correct 2,3 or 4 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well, that shows it can happen! This March, so far, the action has been just west. Hopefully, we'll get one more shot with this one. By the way, what is your source for all your awesome research? I'm sure you have many....but what's the best? First, I look at old wx maps to look for storms: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html This is how I found out that the 3/6-7/2014 wedge/GOM low combo was easily the most impressive for 3/1-15 through 1969-2003. This is also how I found all of the old SE sig. ZR/IP's for early March. The source for this RDU data is this: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html%3bjsessionid=803B2A836C6AE892F9F4813DAFE58344 My best source may be the old newspapers at both the ATL and SAV libraries that I read on and copied from micro. I do also have numerous internet sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Do the models have climo in their equations? I ask, because the last storm and now this potential are trending colder 3-4 days out. Just wondering if the rising temp avgs in March give the models warm biases that they can only correct 2,3 or 4 days out? I doubt that it has much to do with it being March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 First, I look at old wx maps to look for storms: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html This is how I found out that the 3/6-7/2014 wedge/GOM low combo was easily the most impressive for 3/1-15 through 1969-2003. This is also how I found all of the old SE sig. ZR/IP's for early March. The source for this RDU data is this: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html%3bjsessionid=803B2A836C6AE892F9F4813DAFE58344 My best source may be the old newspapers at both the ATL and SAV libraries that I read on and copied from micro. I do also have numerous internet sources. Thanks man. I'll check out those links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Thanks man. I'll check out those links. YW. More specific links: 3/60 day by day RDU: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-394A31A8-95A2-46FF-A5C0-ED0A6E5CB9AE.pdf Check 3/2-3 and 3/16 3/78 day by day RDU: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-C067DEAA-F02F-49B7-9FAC-B5B5C94CD936.pdf Check 2-3 and 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Wow, that's awesome stuff, Larry. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Wow, that's awesome stuff, Larry. Thanks! YW. 3/1960 GSO: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-394A31A8-95A2-46FF-A5C0-ED0A6E5CB9AE.pdf Edit: 3/1978 GSO: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-A51E6322-F576-4A2E-813A-34BF5ED3F734.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm all in! Wait, do I have a shot? Who cares, it's carpfishing time tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Serious Q with this next CAD threat: Could this winter end up taking the title of the greatest CAD winter on record? It at least has to be quite high on the list. Opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Serious Q with this next CAD threat: Could this winter end up taking the title of the greatest CAD winter on record? It at least has to be quite high on the list. Opinion? Including summer of 2013 this could be the greatest CAD yearly period ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Including summer of 2013 this could be the greatest CAD yearly period ever. I would take it back to spring of '13 This past year (almost to date) has been simply amazing with all of the CAD's we have had. I would love nothing more than to have them continue into next spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I would take it back to spring of '13 This past year (almost to date) has been simply amazing with all of the CAD's we have had. I would love nothing more than to have them continue into next spring Next winter...and the next..and the one after that, lol. As long as those highs keep coming down, I won't have to think about spring..or summer Winter is just way too short for me. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Thanks for the links, Larry! Cool stuff! --------------- In addition, I'm thinking about starting a thread for the April Fool's Day Winter Storm. Thoughts? I think we get that to trend a little colder and we go all-in. IMO. We get some of our biggest storms in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Euro Ensemble has -EPO (ridge up through Alaska) with back to back Canadian Highs moving into the U.S....below normal temperatures east of the Rockies next Sunday through the following Thursday...same on GFS Superensemble...the beat goes on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Euro Ensemble has -EPO (ridge up through Alaska) with back to back Canadian Highs moving into the U.S....below normal temperatures east of the Rockies next Sunday through the following Thursday...same on GFS Superensemble...the beat goes onI guess this thread will be open till August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I guess this thread will be open till August. 3 years back it was 41 degrees on Roan Mountain on the App Trail in full sunshine at 400pm around June 15. We might pull it off again in the NC Mountains this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 well are we done. not seeing any chatter about any possible snow storms. was reading the paper this morning and nws is saying looking like El Nino is starting to perk up that it would mean more rain and at the end of the year more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Euro Ensemble has -EPO (ridge up through Alaska) with back to back Canadian Highs moving into the U.S....below normal temperatures east of the Rockies next Sunday through the following Thursday...same on GFS Superensemble...the beat goes on Overnight Euro Ensemble keeps the back to back Canadian Highs, and actually has a Miller A in between the 2 that runs from central / northern FL, off Hatteras to off Boston, with 850mb staying below 0 deg throughout from Raleigh to Charlotte to far north GA. Previous Euro Ensemble had it too. Believe what you want to believe, lol. At any rate, looks like a below to well below normal temperature period late next weekend into the following week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Cold Miller A storm on 06z GFS right at truncation as well (next Tues) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Neat looking split flow in NE Pacific on GFS Ensemble, ridge pushing up into the Arctic north of Alaska, cross polar flow (this is next Tues). Not a warm look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 superensemble top analog date looking good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I think the 3/25 period bears watching. It probably won't work out, but it's as decent of a chance as we'll get in late March. Who knows? This year has been crazy. The DC area got hammered last night with their biggest late March storm in many decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.