Hvward Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 So no one is going to comment on the 12z NAM? Granted it's at 84 hours but it would paint a snowy SE with parts of GA/SC/NC. ULL takes a great path and is south of where 6z had it. Again 84 hours but even verbatim it's ice for most of NC just before the ULL moves across. I commented on it in the Banter thread lol. I figured anything past 48hrs on the nam would be considered banter. 12z has a nice looking cut off low with a cold core that looks to be on path to track right over most of NC. Jeff had a good post in the mountain thread mentioning that a 546 core would produce a solid hit of snow for at least the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM incorporates northern stream energy, which really cranks the ULL, both of which make for colder mid levels than last time. And the track is great. The actual solution, however, will likely look nothing like this in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Atleast he left SC out this time! I've given up on this one. The ULL didn't really do anything for here last time. A nice soaking 1-2 inch rain will be good though! Much colder ULL showing up on the nam then what was previously modeled on the last storm. Not that it will snow in SC but we are dealing with a stronger upper level system here it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The ULL on the NAM was a beast. The GFS doesn't agree, though I think the 12z run was a little better the than the 06z run. On the positive side, 3/6 looked like a dumpster fire at this timeframe and some of us reeled that one back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 WxSouth concerned about another Triad/Northern NC ice event..snow and ice in much of Interior VA. Winter hangs tough #vawx #ncwx 3/14/14, 12:14 PM Kids can't miss another day of school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Sounds like WxSouth is putting a lot of weight into the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Sounds like WxSouth is putting a lot of weight into the NAM. No, he isn't. WxSouth (about an hour ago): Not buying NAM yet, is a strong cutoff in South, 540 heights, cold enough for wet snow under core in part of #arwx #mswx #alwx #tnwx #gawx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 So why is he concerned about another ice event for NC if the NAM is the only one really showing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 So why is he concerned about another ice event for NC if the NAM is the only one really showing it? Because other models have been showing ice too. The NAM just got in range enough to show ice with the 12z run, first time it's shown ice. GFS has shown ice for a while now, granted off and on and fairly inconsistent. Euro has shown ice as well. Nothing new. Did you miss my "ice anyone?" post on the 12th? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42741-winter-2013-14-pattern-discussion-iii/page-42#entry2876192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I just thought the latest with the Euro and GFS was rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I just thought the latest with the Euro and GFS was rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The Canadian verbatim kind of sucks, but it is colder than its prior runs. C VA jackpot. NOVA is fringed. Then again, the Canadian showed my area just getting a cold rain out of the 3/6 ice storm right up until verification time, so I'm not in a real trusting mood with it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 From the posts on here before the last NAM, you wouldn't think this was anything but rain on the other models. I do not want that much freezin rain the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well, the Euro came in quite a bit colder than the dumpster fire last night. Looks like much of NC ends as snow. There's some ice, too. I mean, it's not a great run, but it's better than nothing and it's mid-March, so I'm not picky. C VA/C WV gets hit hardest. Looks like 1.2" for GSO, 1.0" for RDU with lesser amounts south of there per the clown. Boone gets 2-3". Is that accurate? Not sure, but it's probably overdone. Almost the entire state of VA gets 2" (including the NC/VA border... the exception being the tidewater). Of course, this is cold chasing the moisture, so yeah........ I'm all-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well, the Euro came in quite a bit colder than the dumpster fire last night. Looks like much of NC ends as snow. There's some ice, too. I mean, it's not a great run, but it's better than nothing and it's mid-March, so I'm not picky. C VA/C WV gets hit hardest. Looks like 1.2" for GSO, 1.0" for RDU with lesser amounts south of there per the clown. Boone gets 2-3". Noticeable shift south on all models today, still a non event for most but might see some light snow/sleet. Still 60+ hours out, they may shift back north tonight/tomorrow. One thing is for sure, it's another magical MA winter. Where is spring!!! ROA looks to do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Noticeable shift south on all models today, still a non event for most but might see some light snow/sleet. Still 60+ hours out, they may shift back north tonight/tomorrow. One thing is for sure, it's another magical MA winter. Where is spring!!! ROA looks to do well. Yeah, the Euro must have came 100 miles south that run. If that happens again, NC is in the game for a big one and we're measuring in inches instead of millimeters. It's going to happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I would say game on for this one... last time NAM had all rain pretty much south of I-40 and nailed it while GFS had IP/ZR much further south (as did Euro), this time all the models seem to be go. Hopefully the trend will be our friend this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 RAH updated Disco: SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT APPEARS THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWFARE TRENDING COLDER...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEMAND THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR INFILTRATION INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINAWITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE. PARTIAL THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGESTALL LIQUID THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN THESE THICKNESSES BECOMESURFACE TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT AS THEY MOVE INTO THE FREEZING RAINCATEGORY MONDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURESTHROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATIONTYPE ALL LIQUID THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...PARTIALTHICKNESSES CONTINUE TO FALL...AND SREF ENSEMBLES ON BUFKITSOUNDINGS BECOME MORE NOTICEABLY WINTRY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONTIN PARTICULAR. IN THAT AREA...FOR NOW IN THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WILLHAVE THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW BY MONDAYAFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PROBABILITY OF ANYTHING NON-LIQUID SEEMS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT...PARTICULARLY BASED ON THEPREPONDERANCE OF THE SREF SOUNDINGS SUCH AS AT KRDU. SURFACETEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTHCAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROMTHE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S FAR SOUTHEAST...DAYTIME HIGHSMONDAY SHOULD RECOVER LITTLE...FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWESTTO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTHEAST.THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHTAND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROMCENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OFFSHORE AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THETIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM MODEST...AND FORTHE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL NEED TO WATCH HOWTHE DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...COMBINED WITH COOLING THICKNESSES ANDTEMPERATURES...WITH LIGHTER QPF...AFFECT PRECIPITATION TYPE. ASTHICKNESSES AND SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES COOL...COARSE MODELSOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT...SUCH THAT WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FORLIQUID PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FROZEN PRECIPITATIONBEFORE ENDING...THE MAIN IMPACT COULD END UP BEING LINGERINGMOISTURE ON UNTREATED SURFACES FREEZING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTOTUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINAWEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KRWI TO KMEB FALL BELOW FREEZING. BASED ONTHE LATEST TIMING...ANY PRECIPITATION ENDS TUESDAY MORNING AS BROADRIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS ONTUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MARCH.THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH A FORECAST BLEND OF 1000-850MBTHICKNESSES...AND GFS MOS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE. OVERALL...HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER AND...AGAIN...TO NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WATER ON MAINSTEM RIVERS WITHA FOCUS...BASED ON THE MMEFS...CURRENTLY ON THE NEUSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 RAH still doesn't sound too impressed for the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 RAH still doesn't sound too impressed for the Triangle. They shouldn't be, we don't have a chance. This is a NW NC and NC/VA border counties potential. Pretty much who got hit hard last week has a chance this week, will see, this thing could still tick north some and be all rain for most. It could be a another SuperJames special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah, the Euro must have came 100 miles south that run. If that happens again, NC is in the game for a big one and we're measuring in inches instead of millimeters. It's going to happen! Looking at and comparing the members of the 0z/12z GEFS it's amazing how every member went south, and went south a lot. Every member of the 12z GEFS has accumulating snow down to the NC border counties. Would be rooting hard for this south trend to stay if I was in Roxboro/GSO/ROA. Still a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Congrats to those who lost power last time! Looks like you all will be the big wiener again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Looks like the 15z SREF mean would imply a decent ice storm for the usual suspects (the same that got hit last time... like the Triad, etc.). The 850 mb 0C isotherm stays near the NC/VA border, though there could be a few ridiculously warm members skewing it, hence the dangers of using a mean to pinpoint these sorts of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Is the upper level low in play on other models, or NAM the only one showing that strength and track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The Euro Ensemble mean splits / shears the wave in the southern Plains...there's no strong closed low tracking into the southeast or TN Valley. NAM is all alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 18z NAM shows an ice storm for the usual suspects (i.e. MBY, etc.). Could it happen? Two in March? Not sure I want to see another, though... EDIT: Well, actually, it's not just icy here... it's icy for most of NC. Surface temperatures are quite cold. They are mostly in the upper 20s in the Triad and N NC. Of course, it's the LR NAM, but I'm all-in for grasping at straws. It's the middle of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If the +TNH Pattern shifts East into the +PNA Pattern we have been hoping for (like the video implies) winter may last until middle of April. The +TNH pattern prevents -NAO and -AO so it is possible these teleconnections may begin to show up as well. There is still a tremendous amount of snow cover North of here and Cold air reserve so I wouldn't write anything off for about a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 18z NAM shows an ice storm for the usual suspects (i.e. MBY, etc.). Could it happen? Two in March? Not sure I want to see another, though... EDIT: Well, actually, it's not just icy here... it's icy for most of NC. Surface temperatures are quite cold. They are mostly in the upper 20s in the Triad and N NC. Of course, it's the LR NAM, but I'm all-in for grasping at straws. It's the middle of March. IMO the trend will only be better... NAM for the last storm never had more than a 100th of an inch ice (maybe a 10th) of ZR for KCLT, but zero 75% of the time. It's latching onto the cold air in place. Power outages will be an issue again this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 IMO the trend will only be better... NAM for the last storm never had more than a 100th of an ice of ZR for KCLT, but 0 75% of the time. It's latching onto the cold air in place. Power outages will be an issue again this time. This would be incredibly unusual to have back to back ice storms in March. What a pattern, if it turns out this way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 anything wintry for the nc mtns. sunday night or monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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