Brick Tamland Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Models consistently showing 1 to 2 inches of snow for northern parts of NC with this system. Not much but still more than usual for March. Maybe folks are just ready to move on to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I've been called worse I guess. Just don't call me DUDE! Haha! I'm just messing with ya. Our computers are down at work today, so I haven't been able to see it either. Not much work happening so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I figured since snowfall output is freely viewable on wxunderground or whatever it's called now, this won't hurt. Here's the wxbell clown I do know on the bottom of the wxbell model area's site.. it does show not to "distribute them" etc.. or something. I really don't think Ryan is enforcing this rule very much seeing how much the images have been thrown all over the place this Winter. If anything, he probably gets more subscribers out of it.\ JB even touched on it a bit in a few videos speaking how he likes the "freedom" and the whole "its 10:1 if it was snow" etc etc. thing.. so they're aware. but don't seem upset about it. I think the biggest issue comes in when people start putting them on their paid sites/blogs without permission as if they were theirs.. or if they are modified/cut up removing the wxbell tag etc. There's a big difference showing a few images to a bunch of weather nerds opposed to putting them on your website and charging a fee to see them. As always, if people start getting DMCA takedown notices, we'll find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Robert making some noise. Snow/ice for parts of nc and va. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 WxSouth The GFS has shifted toward a NAM look at 84 hours and goes on to produce another cold cutoff low, with damming in VA and northern NC late Sunday, into Monday and Tuesday. This should look familiar. Monday Night (aloft). It's too early to know exactly where to draw the rain , snow , ice line yet. Lots of cold rains in the Southeast, from two distinct parts of the storm. Unfortunately, more ice and snow in Virginia and probably northern NC as well, where NONE is needed again. A couple of degrees and time of day will make a huge difference at the surface. Plenty of time to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It's going to take some things matching up just right; as Robert stated. Here's the 12z GFS snow cover map at hour 126(looks like 3" near RDU): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=13&model_init_hh=12&fhour=126¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Robert making some noise. Snow/ice for parts of nc and va. Tw Not directed torwards you by any means, but the last time I heard some "noise" about a major winter event, I got a cold rain! So be wary! The trends keep being more and more S, so anythings possible, but the high is not cold enough , IMO to do alot of dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It's going to take some things matching up just right; as Robert stated. Here's the 12z GFS snow cover map at hour 126(looks like 3" near RDU): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=13&model_init_hh=12&fhour=126¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false The Euro and GFS have been consistently showing 1 to 2 inches for RDU and more north. The trend lately has been in favor of snow more than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The Euro and GFS have been consistently showing 1 to 2 inches for RDU and more north. The trend lately has been in favor of snow more than not. It does look promising on paper(or digital model outputs), but it really will have to to be a perfect setup. If this hits in the middle of day it will probably stay cold rain or it will not stick(remember big bust in DC last year). Here's a good look at the potential CAD. Source high looks to be heading out to sea but at this point it has already established itself in the SE (...at least for NC). http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn/avn_crhlia_h102.gif Edit: Here is hour 114(actually looks good): http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn/avn_crhlia_h114.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Based on the Euro and some other 12z runs, the low is going right over TN / NC , so that doesn't bode well for anybody wanting snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GSP claims the mtns. will see snow out of Sunday's / monday's system. The snow map is only showing n. nc. any thoughts on this? I hope we get in on the fun and games sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Based on the Euro and some other 12z runs, the low is going right over TN / NC , so that doesn't bode well for anybody wanting snow! Well the GFS and Euro leave some southern stream energy behind that does bring some light wintery precip on Monday night to Tuesday morning. Who knows if it's right, but the primary system looks to track over NC as you pointed out and would be rain for NC, but a nice MA winter storm. Meh….bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 RAH's afternoon discussion (still looking interesting): .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...FOR SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE: THE SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN OVER AL/GAAS SECONDARY LOW CENTERS FORM JUST OFF THE GA/SRN SC COAST SUNDAYNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... WHILE THE 850 MB LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD PUSHINGTHE BETTER MOISTURE FLUX TO OUR EAST. WHILE PRECIP RATES SHOULD BERAMPING DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD... THERE WILL REMAIN PLENTY OF DEEPMOISTURE WITH PERSISTENT LIFT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHESWITH LINGERING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE... SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGHCHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT/MON... WITH LOWER CHANCES LINGERING THROUGHMON NIGHT/TUE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE REGION.REGARDING PTYPE... AS THE COASTAL LOWS DEVELOP AND HELP TO REINFORCETHE NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO NC... THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE HEART OFTHE POLAR HIGH HOLDING NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY ANDRETREATING FURTHER NORTH MONDAY... WHICH BRINGS INTO QUESTION THEAVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR THAT WOULD SUPPORT A NON-LIQUID PTYPE. BUTTHE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN AS GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGSAS WELL AS ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A TRANSITION LATE SUNNIGHT/MON TO A WINTRY MIX OF MAINLY SNOW/SLEET. THE ECMWF IS MOREEMPHATIC WITH ITS COLUMN COOLING THAN THE GFS... TRENDING TO WINTRYPRECIP OVER 12 HOURS SOONER... BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ANDCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE SURFACE PATTERN...APPROACHING TROUGH... AND EVENTUAL THERMAL STRUCTURE TO RETAIN AMENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CERTAINLY ALOT OF QUESTIONS REMAIN IN THIS LOWER-CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME... ANDWE CAN`T IGNORE THE FACT THAT IT`S MID MARCH AND SIGNIFICANT WINTRYPRECIP IS QUICKLY BECOMING CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEPIT AS A RAIN/WINTRY MIX FOR NOW... ALTHOUGH STRICT INTERPRETATION OFFORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF ALL-SNOW OVER PARTS OFCENTRAL NC... EVEN HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH (AND THUS THE HEART OF THE MID LEVEL COLD AIR) TRACKSOVERHEAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 RAH sounds more promising now than with the morning discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 RAH's afternoon discussion (still looking interesting): Still, lots of time, but it's mid-March, hard to imagine us getting anything wintery without a better HP, still like the NC/VA border and west of 85 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GSP claims the mtns. will see snow out of Sunday's / monday's system. The snow map is only showing n. nc. any thoughts on this? I hope we get in on the fun and games sunday night.Their afternoon discussion still mentions possibilities of accum snow in the NC zones, say temps marginal at best, high is pretty stout, and lots of uncertainties , the normal caveats of any wintry chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Still, lots of time, but it's mid-March, hard to imagine us getting anything wintery without a better HP, still like the NC/VA border and west of 85 again. Your right everything about this screams cold rain. I'm definitly not staying up late at night for the next model runs. (but)The only thing that could helps us is the orientation of the incoming air from the north. These kind of situation push the air due south in a back-door cold front fashion getting us in the cold air before folks to the west. If we do get the perfect match up we might get something from this. (and) It is encouraging to have RAH mention this as a real possiblilty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 Both GFS and Euro have upper low cutting off across the Southeast on Tuesday...with marginal temps close by. I'm sure a couple days from now the short range models will continue to focus on the intensity of the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Your right everything about this screams cold rain. I'm definitly not staying up late at night for the next model runs. (but)The only thing that could helps us is the orientation of the incoming air from the north. These kind of situation push the air due south in a back-door cold front fashion getting us in the cold air before folks to the west. If we do get the perfect match up we might get something from this. (and) It is encouraging to have RAH mention this as a real possiblilty. Well just getting around to look at the surface maps of the Euro/GFS…the Euro is light freezing rain or sleet over night Mon/Tues, so not a big deal, but the GFS is a nice winter storm, for north/central NC into central VA. My money is on the Euro. It all hinges on how much energy get's left behind and if that can get going, Euro/GFS both do this, so we will see if that is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swvirginiawx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Lots of moving parts with this system. Definitely a trend towards what the Canadian came up with Wednesday night though. Strength and placement of that HP is going to play a huge role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC613 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-142215-PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-613 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAYAFTERNOON...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAYMORNING. ANY NEWLY BUDDING VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF NOTPROPERLY PROTECTED..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THEINTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.FIRE WEATHER WATCH.A PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OFCENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGEDTO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Your right everything about this screams cold rain. I'm definitly not staying up late at night for the next model runs. (but)The only thing that could helps us is the orientation of the incoming air from the north. These kind of situation push the air due south in a back-door cold front fashion getting us in the cold air before folks to the west. If we do get the perfect match up we might get something from this. (and) It is encouraging to have RAH mention this as a real possiblilty. isn't this nearly always what it screams. why can't it scream snow more than what it does. where are these cold ULL when you need one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 isn't this nearly always what it screams. why can't it scream snow more than what it does. where are these cold ULL when you need one? Right now it's really screaming cold rain. Most models have come in warmer and RAH is definitely not as impressed as yesterday. I suppose things could trend back colder; it has a few times this year. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... FOR SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE: FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN A BIT MURKY IN THIS TIME FRAME... HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE COME IN WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN THAN YESTERDAY`S RUNS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY MON... SUPPORTIVE OF LESS OF A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST/NRN GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN OVER FAR SW NC AS SECONDARY LOW CENTERS FORM JUST OFF THE GA/SRN SC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE 850 MB LOW SHIFTS ENE TOWARD SW VA... PUSHING THE BETTER MOISTURE FLUX TO OUR EAST (ALTHOUGH THE GFS FORMS A SECOND SURFACE-850 MB OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST). WHILE PRECIP RATES SHOULD BE RAMPING DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH PARTIAL DRYING AT AND ABOVE 700 MB... THERE WILL REMAIN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE... WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LINGERING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT/MON... WITH LOWER CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH MON NIGHT/TUE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. REGARDING PTYPE... DESPITE THE ABOVE-NOTED WARMER COLUMN HEADING INTO MONDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOWS DEVELOP AND HELP TO REINFORCE THE NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO NC... THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT. BUT THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE HEART OF THE POLAR HIGH HOLDING NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY AND RETREATING FURTHER NORTH MONDAY... WHICH BRINGS INTO QUESTION THE AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR THAT WOULD SUPPORT A NON- LIQUID PTYPE. STRICT INTERPRETATION OF GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF PRECIP TAPERING DOWN AS MOSTLY SNOW OR PERHAPS SNOW/SLEET OVER NRN PARTS OF CENTRAL NC MON NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MORE BRIEF WINDOW OF A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S MODELS IS MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY REASONABLE... AND IT`S STILL LIKELY THAT THIS WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE TO NO IMPACT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. LOWS MON 34-43 AND HIGHS 42-51 WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN BUT FAIRLY LOW QPF. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH HALF AND JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE MON NIGHT. EXPECT DECREASING POPS EARLY TUE WEST TO EAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOLLOWED BY INCOMING SHORTWAVE RIDGING... HOWEVER THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC... AND EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ON TUE... KEEPING HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well I think this one is done for. Like mack said yesterday a surface track through N GA> NC or TN>NC is no bueno for snow. Looking at the GFS,Nam,Euro, CMC all show roughly the same type of track. I think overall the models have finally converged on an idea for the track. Could change probably or probably not. But right now this is pretty well over with for anybody in NC. Central and Northern VA look to do well. But its going to be a cold rain transitioning to a even colder rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 00z GFS last night wanted to drop 6"+ rain over the next 16 days (MeteoStar KJNX). this morning's 06z cuts that down to 2.79. Either way, it looks like the sogginess is going to continue for a while. Might make it tough for farmers in the Southeast as they start to get their crops going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 So no one is going to comment on the 12z NAM? Granted it's at 84 hours but it would paint a snowy SE with parts of GA/SC/NC. ULL takes a great path and is south of where 6z had it. Again 84 hours but even verbatim it's ice for most of NC just before the ULL moves across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 WxSouthNAM complex system in Southeast Sun-Mon PM. 2 parts, main then upper low. Would be signifcant snow/Ice in #vawx #ncwx poss. N. #gawx MonPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 So no one is going to comment on the 12z NAM? Granted it's at 84 hours but it would paint a snowy SE with parts of GA/SC/NC. ULL takes a great path and is south of where 6z had it. Again 84 hours but even verbatim it's ice for most of NC just before the ULL moves across. Does it have any support from the other models? I thought it was just mostly rain from what I read today for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Does it have any support from the other models? I thought it was just mostly rain from what I read today for NC. Well it has a little support. It's the coldest obviously and really amps up that ULL. That being said NAM pretty much led the way with the last system. This ULL looks better than the last system but I'm still skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Atleast he left SC out this time! I've given up on this one. The ULL didn't really do anything for here last time. A nice soaking 1-2 inch rain will be good though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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