GreensboroWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 In March, generally speaking, you need higher snow rates to get the snow to accumulate than you would in January or early February. Light to Moderate snow just won't cut it in March during the day especially. All that really matters is cold air....if you have temps below 32degF, then the snow will stick, accumulate...doesn't matter if it's March or even April. I've seen it snow in early April with temps in the low 30s and add up around here..... Granted, in March you usually don't have many opportunities of below 32degF as you do in Dec/Jan/Feb, though We go through the same sun angle argument every year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z EPS has basically nothing on all it's members for KCAE or ATL through 240 hrs. As soon as a good chunk of those members start hinting at something.. is when I even begin to take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 All that really matters is cold air....if you have temps below 32degF, then the snow will stick, accumulate...doesn't matter if it's March or even April. I've seen it snow in early April with temps in the low 30s and add up around here..... Granted, in March you usually don't have many opportunities of below 32degF as you do in Dec/Jan/Feb, though We go through the same sun angle argument every year!! Yep. I post this about 2 years ago. Interestingly, Floyd County VA. received almost 30" in this weeks storm. Snowfall rate trumps everything else. The heaviest snow I was ever in occurred April 27 or 28 in Floyd County Va. in the late 70s. Long time ago and not exactly sure of the date. It had rained heavily over night and was still raining. We had just arrived at the HS school where I was teaching and was surprised to notice cars from the western end of the county with several inches of snow on them coming into the parking lot. As school started the change over occurred and it began to snow heavily. Even though the ground was wet and warm it covered completely in a few minutes. Puddles first turned to slush and then covered. The principal called NWS in Roanoke because the forecast was heavy rain but he was getting worried about bus travel. The met told him it could not be snowing because it was to warm. I won't repeat what he told the met. The met then said there must be a small pocket of cold air aloft and it would quickly change back to rain. An hour later we were dismissing school with 4 inches on the ground and snow pouring down. After the buses struggled out of the parking lot a Va HP car came into the lot to tell us not to dismiss because there was already 14" of snow in the western part of the county. The snow continued until just after noon and had deposited about a foot when it let up and the sun popped out. You could hear the water rushing down the gutters in the street. After 30 minutes it got very dark like just before a summer thunderstorm and then all hell broke loose. It poured snow with thunder and lightning every few minutes for several hours. I grew up in NW NJ and have never seen it snow like that. By 8pm we had over 30" in town even though it was still melting from the bottom. Reports of more in the higher western end of the county. Trees were leafed out and falling all over as the snow was extremely wet and sticky. Transformers flashing green as one after another they shorted out. I periodically went outside with a sedge hammer and whacked the trunks of my trees to relieve some of the weight from the banches. In those days the clocks weren't changed to DST until April so it seemed surreal to see it snowing on full leafed trees in daylight at 8pm. So that snow fought very wet warm ground, extremely high sun angle and marginal temps and still put down the heaviest accumulation in the shortest time I have ever seen. Little to no notice was taken of this event outside the county. Floyd is very rural and even today, 30+ years later, there is only one stop light in the entire county. Temps approached 80 the next two days and the snow disappeared almost as fast as it had fallen. We did miss two more days of school for mud. Lots of dirt roads were bus routes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Burns , I love reading that story every time you post it! It should be a must read every time about this time of year. Just as someone said above, temp during snow, is much more important than temps the day before or ground temp.snowed all day Tuesday with heavy rates at times and never stuck on road surfaces, temp 37. Next day it was 30.2 when snow started, within 10 minutes , there was a coating on the road! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Pretty strong signal for another branch hook-up 2/25-2/28... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 18z GFS ens mean on-board, looking like the 27th right now, day 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 All that really matters is cold air....if you have temps below 32degF, then the snow will stick, accumulate...doesn't matter if it's March or even April. I've seen it snow in early April with temps in the low 30s and add up around here..... Granted, in March you usually don't have many opportunities of below 32degF as you do in Dec/Jan/Feb, though We go through the same sun angle argument every year!! Last February (16th-ish lol) it was in the low 40s with a small chance of a flurry. It started snowing so hard and so fast that afternoon we had 4 inches on the ground in 2 hours...complete with a rainbow and a beautiful sunset. It never stuck to the roads or sidewalks and the next day it was gone but it was my miracle snow. Saved last Winter from being a total waste of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I hope this is something to track. already to quite on here, I guess everyone is like the atmosphere. Like Robert said today the atmosphere has to reload that it will take a little while but he thinks the southeast will have another snowstorm chance along with the cold air that is coming at the end of the month. I guess folks have to take a breather and reload also. Lets hope for another snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 That western ridge is too far east to produce anything other than dry cold and way out-to-sea storms. That's fine, anyway, because I have three dances that weekend and I'd prefer not to miss them, especially the one on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 That western ridge is too far east to produce anything other than dry cold and way out-to-sea storms. That's fine, anyway, because I have three dances that weekend and I'd prefer not to miss them, especially the one on Sunday. Looks like there's a southern branch under it, so it might have a higher than normal chance of working out. Also, I would suspect the chances of phasing would increase in such a scenario, which could be the proverbial double-edged sword. Anyway, I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand, but I also wouldn't put away the dancing shoes just yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Looks like there's a southern branch under it, so it might have a higher than normal chance of working out. Also, I would suspect the chances of phasing would increase in such a scenario, which could be the proverbial double-edged sword. Anyway, I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand, but I also wouldn't put away the dancing shoes just yet either.I just use tennis shoes. Even if there's a southern jet, it's going to be really tough to get anything to work out with a trough that far east, especially this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Looks like there's a southern branch under it, so it might have a higher than normal chance of working out. Also, I would suspect the chances of phasing would increase in such a scenario, which could be the proverbial double-edged sword. Anyway, I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand, but I also wouldn't put away the dancing shoes just yet either. I would pencil the shag-festival in, John Anderson's bus may delayed from Durham though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I would pencil the shag-festival in, John Anderson's bus may delayed from Durham though...Shag's for competent people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I would pencil the shag-festival in, John Anderson's bus may delayed from Durham though... Is John Anderson the guy that sang "Swangin'" back in the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Is John Anderson the guy that sang "Swangin'" back in the day?Isn't he the host of Wipeout ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The 12z Euro gave N NC a fantasy snowfall on February 26th, FWIW. As has been stated, it seems that period holds potential (the ensembles support this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The 12z Euro gave N NC a fantasy snowfall on February 26th, FWIW. As has been stated, it seems that period holds potential (the ensembles support this). That would be acceptable. That's my bday. I will be approximately 39, and I recall snow on the ground or falling from the sky on my bday at my location only once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The 12z Euro gave N NC a fantasy snowfall on February 26th, FWIW. As has been stated, it seems that period holds potential (the ensembles support this).We already called dibbs on that one. Created a thread and everything. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 That would be acceptable. That's my bday. I will be approximately 39, and I recall snow on the ground or falling from the sky on my bday at my location only once. You and Jack Benny! Pretty good chance for blocking to show up now, especially if this is your first turn at 39 Goofy has kept the possibility open for a few days now. I'm expecting chances thru March, at least until the heater shows up, and so far, no heater....and rains still coming. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 That would be acceptable. That's my bday. I will be approximately 39, and I recall snow on the ground or falling from the sky on my bday at my location only once. I think it snowed on March 1st in 2010 as it was the day after my birthday. Edit: I realized this makes it sound like it snowed because it was my birthday. I'm going to choose to leave it. I am master of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I think it snowed on March 1st in 2010 as it was the day after my birthday. Edit: I realized this makes it sound like it snowed because it was my birthday. I'm going to choose to leave it. I am master of the snow. It did snow on your birthday in 2009! And one day later in 2010. My birthday is in July, so unless I travel to the Southern Hemisphere, I'm pretty much SOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It did snow on your birthday in 2009! And one day later in 2010. My birthday is in July, so unless I travel to the Southern Hemisphere, I'm pretty much SOL. Ahh, yep! I was right in those maximums south of Asheville too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 People write off March because the ground temps are warmer, the sun angle higher, temps are usually more marginal than they are in January. And I've personally seen 4 hours of moderate to heavy snow in the middle of the day that amounted to 1/2". Even had hours of thunder snow but because of the warm ground and it being middle of the day it didn't stick. All of these things are true, but as I said, the statistics say March is alright for snow, especially in the mid-South. Our snowfall average isn't much less in March than it is for February and when you consider that most March snows come within the first couple weeks of the month (notable exception IMBY is 3/22/1981 and for others 3/24/1983), it means that the first couple weeks of March are actually pretty snowy. The sun angle can be an issue, especially if BL temperatures are above freezing (and they were for you guys in March 2009), but if the event is at night, that's irrelevant, and if BL temperatures are in the 20s, then it becomes less of an issue, even during the day. And, as with anything, if there's consistently heavy rates, the sun angle isn't going to stop it from accumulating. A system with iffy BL temperatures and sketchy rates during the day is a recipe for disaster, of course, but that wouldn't likely work out on the Winter Solstice, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Something interesting keeps showing up on the GFS around 2/27. Something to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Something interesting keeps showing up on the GFS around 2/27. Something to keep an eye on Geez, how do you get the maps so fast? And you all can go ahead and thank me in advance for the birthday storm that's coming 2/28! ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Geez, how do you get the maps so fast? And you all can go ahead and thank me in advance for the birthday storm that's coming 2/28! ^^ I haven't seen the 0z yet. That said every time I view meteostar something keeps catching my eye during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I haven't seen the 0z yet. That said every time I view meteostar something keeps catching my eye during that time. Ahh, okay. Yea, there's generally some precipitation somewhere around hour 240. To my untrained eye though it generally looks too warm. But it's still a very long ways away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Ahh, okay. Yea, there's generally some precipitation somewhere around hour 240. To my untrained eye though it generally looks too warm. But it's still a very long ways away. Not that it really matters, but the 18z GFS actually had a major winter storm for TN and NC from GSO to CLT and towards the mountains on February 27th. Looks like it might be snow-to-rain (back to snow?) further east. BL temperatures aren't great (slightly above freezing, verbatim), but they look okay, and given the setup, I'm not sure BL temperatures would really be much of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Not that it really matters, but the 18z GFS actually had a major winter storm for TN and NC from GSO to CLT and towards the mountains on February 27th. Looks like it might be snow-to-rain (back to snow?) further east. BL temperatures aren't great (slightly above freezing, verbatim), but they look okay. Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't surface temps closer to 40? Maybe my maps are just a bit too crude. 850's don't look bad though. Edit: I looked again. Verbatim it looks like it would start as snow but change to rain for the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't surface temps closer to 40? Maybe my maps are just a bit too crude. 850's don't look bad though. Edit: I looked again. Verbatim it looks like it would start as snow but change to rain for the heaviest precip. Just like most NC winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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