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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion III

Marion_NC_WX

By Marion_NC_WX,
in Southeastern States

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Well the 12z GFS, at hour 126, shows 1" or > of snow from Raleigh northeastward.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=12&fhour=126&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

12z GFS is almost a best case scenario for NC folks...low track and movement/timing in unison with high movement east, any sooner and it would be all rain...if it can trend slightly later it wouldn't hurt. Definitely worth watching.

 

WnPp0CT.gif

 

From RAH

 

IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT
THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE MODEL SPREAD. THE GFS IS NOT AS DEEP
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND IS STILL INDICATING MUCH LESS
PRECIP FOR CENTRAL NC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FINALLY KICKING EAST AND INDICATES A DEEPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL (PER WPC) AND THEREFORE WILL SHOW
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS CENTERED ON THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE IRONED
OUT...GIVEN THIS IS DAYS 5/6...BUT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...IT COULD
BE ANOTHER GOOD RAIN EVENT FOR CENTRAL NC. IN ADDITION...THERE WOULD
BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY PRECIP (MOST LIKELY A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW AT THE TAIL END)...BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE NOT SO
FAVORABLE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE HIGH...WILL MAINTAIN AN ALL
LIQUID FORECAST FOR NOW.

 

Interesting to see what RAH has to say in the LR AFD update, because the 06z and 12z GFS runs have trended towards Euro. 12z Euro should be interesting!

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

I'm not a big fan of definitive statements like this with regards to the weather.  We have a hard enough time predicting the high temperatures for tomorrow, much less predicting what might happen next week.  When tax day gets here, I might endorse your statement, but before then the weather is much too variable for me to claim to know what it is going to do next.

 

This next part is not solely directed at you, Shawn, but at members in general:  Why do people feel the need to pronounce a death to winter?  Is it somehow cathartic?  The weather does not care whether you or I think winter is over or not.  Whatever will happen will happen, and our opinions on the matter are generally worthless.  Sit back, enjoy the ride, whether it happens to be cold and wintry or warm and spring-like.  They are both awesome scenarios, and I will choose to bask in the glory of whichever hand I happen to be dealt, but I won't claim to know which is going to definitively happen from here on out.

 

 

Good post.  I wasn't trying to be definitive or anything though.  It's just my opinion.  Also remember, I live down here in KCAE.  Odds of us seeing any Winter weather is pretty low.  I think that skews my view a great deal also.

 

I think people as a whole do tend to write off Winter towards the end of Feb.  To me, it feels like that lull where you just finished up college football season.. and then have to wait until the next go around.  Sure you have  a few bowl games mixed in and a national championship game... but if you aren't in it.. then it's pretty meh.

 

GFS isn't the worst for NC.  I guess in this late of the season, even a dusting is considered a win...  GFS may be trying to show a good bit more come verification time up that way.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

12z GFS is almost a best case scenario for NC folks...low track and movement/timing in unison with high movement east, any sooner and it would be all rain...if it can trend slightly later it wouldn't hurt. Definitely worth watching.

 

Interesting to see what RAH has to say in the LR AFD update, because the 06z and 12z GFS runs have trended towards Euro. 12z Euro should be interesting!

 

Yes, if the GFS and Euro keep it up, this might really be something to watch. It won't be much, but still anything this time of year is more than usual.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

The 12z Euro appears to have some backside snow showers.  Not a great run for us, though.  It destroys NOVA/WV/MD.  There's some 10"+ areas in the WV eastern panhandle.

 

In any case, it really brings down the cold after the storm.

 

The 12z GGEM is too amped and really doesn't give us anything but some rain with the 3/17 storm, but it brings a superclipper in on 3/19 that would appear to give a lot of NC a really good hit (at least based on thickness lines... not sure about surface temperatures).

 

I still don't really see any huge reason to get excited about this event, but it does have the potential to give a lot of NC/TN our final snowfall of the season and even if it doesn't accumulate, it's late mid to late March, so you can't really be picky.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH afternoon discussion:

 

GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES FROM BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS/NW COASTAL PLAIN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS
AND  MID LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH WITH A SATURATED COLUMN ALL AT
OR BELOW FREEZING... A REFLECTION OF THE ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NORTH.
WILL JUST MENTION A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SNOW EARLY MON MORNING IN THE
NW CWA FOR NOW WITH LOWS CLOSE TO FREEZING AND HIGHS MON ONLY IN THE
LOW-MID 40S.
 

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

12z Euro ensembles:

~30/50 or so members with snow for this system for KRDU, a few others have snow but it's seeing a later system so I didn't include them.

 

mean is a bit over 1", obviously more than OP, and one big dog member (9"+) is back on the board with 7 members at 2"+

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

GFS and Euro both look "meh" to me.  I want to see some really entrenched cold. It's just getting late in the season and climo plus just plain statistics are working against pretty much anyone outside of the mountains. Throw in the fact that models haven't exactly been consistent with the strength of the low and the cold air associated with it, it's just tough to get excited about. 

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

Good post, Calc.

And according to DT, A snowstorm doesn't happen because the GFS shows one.

 

Thanks, CR.

 

I guess ultimately your location and prespective of this plays a huge role and probably with out a doubt winter weather is over south of the GA mountains and well south of the NC/SC line.

 

I realize this, but it's almost as if people take pride in nailing a coffin shut or something.  Being further north than many on here, I suppose I just leave the door cracked a little for a surprise here and there.

 

Good post.  I wasn't trying to be definitive or anything though.  It's just my opinion.  Also remember, I live down here in KCAE.  Odds of us seeing any Winter weather is pretty low.  I think that skews my view a great deal also.

 

I think people as a whole do tend to write off Winter towards the end of Feb.  To me, it feels like that lull where you just finished up college football season.. and then have to wait until the next go around.  Sure you have  a few bowl games mixed in and a national championship game... but if you aren't in it.. then it's pretty meh.

 

Perhaps if people were more specific in their pronouncements of "time of death," then it would make more sense.  But even then, they might be wrong.

 

It's more the spirit or tone of these death pronouncements that get me, more than anything.  People gleefully proclaiming that all winter fun is done and over with.  I'm of the persuasion that any cold and wintry possibilities are great news, no matter how late in the season, because there will be more than enough miserably hot summer afternoons, yet you don't find me posting things like:

 

"Ha!  Another hard freeze last night!  Take that you spring-lovers!  I hope all your flowers and budding trees die a miserable death!"

 

OR

 

"I sure hope that powerful cold front comes through and ruins all your outdoor plans for this weekend!  Then, you can sit inside and pray that your baseball game is rescheduled for a warmer day.  In the meantime, I hope the ice storm breaks all the limbs off your trees and reminds you that Jack Frost is king of this land!"

 

Of course that was massive hyperbole on my part and not directed at you in particular, Shawn.  But it is my broad-brush perception of many winter-killer posts that I come across in this thread and in the banter thread.

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Crapper Jim

Crapper Jim

Posted
Posted

<I use the AW Barometer when I sense a Winter Weather event...

 

...That's the number of people signed-on in rough correlation w/ number of recent posts.

Semi-determinant is, as always, number of 'weenie' posts from people much like myself.

 

Secondary, Is over-exuberance of Met posters... but, then you have to decide how drunk

they might be in excitement.

 

Finally... I go back to where I came from (local AFDs).

 

Then, repeat every 3 hours.  Just as tough as reading the models and associated data

- I suspect. 

 

Weather Deliberation for the Non-Met 101 - Not an exact science.  Werks fer me, though!

 

 

EDIT:  BTW - I learn a bit every time... Thanks, Mets!  (and educated enthusiasts!)

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

GFS and Euro both look "meh" to me.  I want to see some really entrenched cold. It's just getting late in the season and climo plus just plain statistics are working against pretty much anyone outside of the mountains. Throw in the fact that models haven't exactly been consistent with the strength of the low and the cold air associated with it, it's just tough to get excited about. 

It's pretty tough to get excited about, I agree, especially in CLT. If you were on the border counties say RDU north you might be a little more excited with this one, such a small % of SE posters would actually see wintry weather with this verbatim so I understand the lack of interest. Still impressive showing up mid March.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

keep reading about the threat for the Monday winter storm but folks like Robert haven't chimed in yet.  guess our experts aren't to bullish on the Monday storm,,,,, yet.

 

 

GSP seems to think there could be accumulating snow for the mtns. and foothills sunday night and monday morning.  

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Ollie Williams

Ollie Williams

Posted
Posted

RNK latest ...

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COULD THURSDAY BE THE LAST ATTACK OF WINTER WEATHER FOR THE SEASON?
MARCH INTO APRIL IS A SEASON TRANSITION TIME WHERE WE COULD HAVE
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW DAYS...THEN COLD AGAIN FOR A DAY OR TWO.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND WARMER AIR
ADVANCING FARTHER NORTH...THE DURATION OF COLD SPELLS WILL BE BRIEF.
THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ALSO EXIST...BUT THE ODDS OF A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE EVENT IS ON A DECLINE BUT NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...IE MARCH 1993.

WITH THAT SAID...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION HIGH STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECASTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF STATES SUNDAY AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NORTH...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
DO LOOK SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEKS MARCH 6-7 2014 EVENT. THE GFS
KEEPS BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECM HAS THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
FROM OVERRUNNING AND WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW IN THE NORTHERN HALF WITH A WINTRY MIX OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF. WILL TREND TEMPERATURES COLDER WHILE KEEPING
WEATHER ELEMENT AS RAIN SUNDAY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW EARLY MONDAY.
WE WILL GET INTO MORE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE CLEAR AND MODELS HOPEFULLY BECOME IN AGREEMENT.
OUTSIDE OF THE SUNDAY-MONDAY EVENT...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS QUIET
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

It's pretty tough to get excited about, I agree, especially in CLT. If you were on the border counties say RDU north you might be a little more excited with this one, such a small % of SE posters would actually see wintry weather with this verbatim so I understand the lack of interest. Still impressive showing up mid March.

Agree, usual suspects look good, similar to who got hit last week. The 5 day CIPs analogs are really good, when those have been good it usually worked out for someone this winter (knock on wood).

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg=

Edit: MJO argues for something to, haven't looked at hardly anything in several days, MJO has been quiet all winter.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Ice anyone? First time GFS has shown a ZR solution with this system as 2m's are colder but problem with a warm nose 800-850mb, so close to an all snow sounding I'd imagine. You can see the tail end of the storm switches to all snow, probably fairly quickly once the column cools.

 

BTW, talk about perfect timing...not a large window for us to get frozen precip.

 

76kycSP.png

 

Bik22fgCAAAkiQP.png

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

Buncombe county is on a 2 hour delay this morning.  keeps snowing hard off and on here in west asheville.  GSP say possible for wwa for sunday night and monday morning and then again for monday night for the mtns..  sunday night snow developing and could reach the upstate and n ga. by daybreak monday morning and then freezing rain monday night.   :snowing:

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Buncombe county is on a 2 hour delay this morning. keeps snowing hard off and on here in west asheville. GSP say possible for wwa for sunday night and monday morning and then again for monday night for the mtns.. sunday night snow developing and could reach the upstate and n ga. by daybreak monday morning and then freezing rain monday night. :snowing:

There should be a little more chatter about this! The fact that GSP mentions snow getting down to NGA and Upstate is a little shocking!? But they nailed the last " major" event last week, by having no mention of ice or snow down here, and were exactly right! They say no accums down here, but I'll take token flakes to keep the ice cream truck away for a little while!
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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

Morning update from NWS Raleigh:

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...PROPELLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THEN ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (WITH POSSIBLY SOME SOUTHERN STREAM
INTERACTION) AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW WILL THEN TRACK ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON
WHEN OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BRING PRECIP IN FASTER (ON SATURDAY NIGHT) AS IT SHOWS SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY TRANSLATING EAST (AHEAD OF THE MAIN MORE DOMINATE WAVE
LATER ON SUNDAY). THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOES NOT KICK EAST AS FAST. WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL (PER
WPC) AND THEREFORE WILL SHOW INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS CENTERED ON THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO IRON OUT
THE DETAILS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY PRECIP DOES
EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
A LOT GOING AGAINST FROZEN PRECIP...SUCH AS THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE
NOT SO FAVORABLE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE HIGH SUPPLYING THE COLD
AIR...SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS). TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

There should be a little more chatter about this! The fact that GSP mentions snow getting down to NGA and Upstate is a little shocking!? But they nailed the last " major" event last week, by having no mention of ice or snow down here, and were exactly right! They say no accums down here, but I'll take token flakes to keep the ice cream truck away for a little while!

yep thought also there would be more chatter about Sunday night with GSP already talking wwa for all the mtns.  guess that last storm wore all our experts out.  maybe they'll come back around today/tomorrow. 

 

 

Fwiw:  Buncombe County schools are closed now.  Guess we're go this Saturday.  Wish they would just add 15 minutes to the day for a week or two.

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