Jon Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 how about the mtns. from the system on the 17-18 next week? Because of the track of the low off the coast of wilmy and going NE, not cutting up the coast, the moisture in the mountains is limited. I haven't really been following things since I am more ready for spring now than seeing more snow. Is this for the St Patrick's Day system? Is the Euro the only one showing snow here now? Yes St. Patricks Day system, but the models differ in timing so calling it that is kinda premature. It could be a 3/18 or even a 3/19 system. New 00z CMC has a sub 998mb low off the coast of HAT, so I guess you could say it's the only model showing 850's cold enough for snow but most models have the system. Like I said a few posts earlier, screams of a cold chasing moisture setup but some members/runs are showing snow or mix. not to many folks talking much Brick. I don't know if the 17th storm is still showing or not. Just looked at Roberts facebook and he doesn't sound to bullish on any freezing precip for anyone in NC. It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 You talking about between 144 and 168? That's the only thing I can see on eWall that looks close. Everything else looks like garbage. Yes exactly that. Verbatim it's a far northern/NE county VA/NC border event. 850's suck, which climo speaking doesn't surprise, but it's cold enough RDU north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Newest WPC images Latest from RAH CONFIDENCE DECREASES EVEN FURTHER FOR VERY END OF THE WEEKEND ANDINTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT A NORTHERNSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH YET ANOTHER COASTALLOW IMPACTING THE REGION AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES EAST.HOWEVER...THERE IS LARGE MODEL SPREAD...WITH THE GFS DIGGING THENORTHERN STREAM LOW INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GULF...SUPPRESSING THESTORM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC AS THE RESULTANT SURFACELOW TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS SUPPRESSED AND THERESULTANT SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...THUS SPREADINGPRECIP INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW INCREASING PRECIP CHANCESLATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. and long term from yesterday from Blacksburg, VA which I think has a good "what if" disco... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... NEXT SYSTEM COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THEFORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONTTHROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BECONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE UPPERPATTERN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THE SPLITFLOW OF THE ECMWF WHICH HOLDS AN UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKESAND CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. BY DAY 7...MONDAY...THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO SUGGEST THEPOTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. IF THE LARGEHIGH THAT THE MODEL HAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS ABLE TO WEDGE DOWNTHE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FORWINTER PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yes exactly that. Verbatim it's a far northern/NE county VA/NC border event. 850's suck, which climo speaking doesn't surprise, but it's cold enough RDU north. Thanks man! Looking forward to seeing what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Newest WPC images Latest from RAH CONFIDENCE DECREASES EVEN FURTHER FOR VERY END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS LARGE MODEL SPREAD...WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GULF...SUPPRESSING THE STORM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC AS THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS SUPPRESSED AND THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...THUS SPREADING PRECIP INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. and long term from yesterday from Blacksburg, VA which I think has a good "what if" disco... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... NEXT SYSTEM COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM STAYS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THE SPLIT FLOW OF THE ECMWF WHICH HOLDS AN UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. BY DAY 7...MONDAY...THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. IF THE LARGE HIGH THAT THE MODEL HAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS ABLE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. Thanks Jon, looks like still a good chance for some in nc according to these maps. hope the cold high can wedge down into the apps. some may get snow for monday night. looks like a great track if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 See this post in the NC Mountains Thread for Raysweather's thoughts for us over the next few days. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41191-2nd-annual-snow-thread-for-the-mountains/?p=2870847 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Jon - WPC has moved the low farther south (just updated)...this matches the move south on the Euro Ensemble. It's a good looking setup, but temps will be questionable as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Jon - WPC has moved the low farther south (just updated)...this matches the move south on the Euro Ensemble. It's a good looking setup, but temps will be questionable as usual. Nice, thanks. Updated Disco to go with: EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1159 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014 ALONG THE EAST COAST...MODELS GENERALLY ALLOW ENOUGH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM OUT OF SOUTHEAST CANADA TO DRIVE A LAYER OF COLDER AIR THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...THEN ATTEMPT TO PRODUCE SOME ILL-DEFINED WAVINESS ALONG THIS MODIFIED BOUNDARY. CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO BE ACCOMPLISHED INVOF THE GULF STREAM AND JUST EAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK... THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR THE POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD MODEST TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD. TRANSITION TO SNOW IS LIKELY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD BUT THAT IS DEPENDENT ON DETAILS WHICH ARE FAR FROM KNOWN. FROPA SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA BY TUE/D7 EAST OF THE SFC HIGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Man, imagine all this southern stream energy and wedging....in January. Just a shame it's in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 That high on those maps looks stout! Pretty nice set up at about 7 days out, maybe it can trend colder and let some people outside of NC get some snow. I don't think this would be an ice set up, it looks like rain or snow. I'll take my chances with 35 and snow, instead of 30 and some freezing rain/ sleet, despite what happened about a week ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Count me as unimpressed regarding GA's chances at sig. wintry precip. at this stage. We could hope for better CAD, but as of now, this doesn't look nearly as impressive as the last storm. The high is not even close to the 1041 mb that existed for the last storm, which had textbook CAD and the most impressive combo of CAD and gulf low in early March I could find for perhaps the last 45+ years. Also, I don't see a Gulf low on model consensus. So, I can't get overly excited about this one unless model consensus changes pretty substantially. At this stage, this looks like a N NC special perhaps, if anything. Regardless, it is exciting for this subforum to still be discussing wintry possibilities for someone even outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like status quo with a weak low offshore. I will pass! Looking for a bombing piedmont runner might have to wait another year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro Ensemble moved back north. Sfc low tracks from Jackson, MS to Hatteras. 850 0 deg from Cincy to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Grit. Does the ensembles show a two part system like the operational? I know the op goes from MS/LA to Sav off of Wilmington. Too warm all liquid the first part then a secondary s/w comes through Sunday night/ Monday morning with crashing temps and possible snow along the VA border into VA. I see the northern mountains could benefit from this s/w as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 12z Euro ensembles KRDU: 27/50 members have "snow" mean near 1.7" OP is running pretty hot compared to ensembles at 2m temp, FWIW. The system is faster on the newest ensembles compared to 00z Ensembles, too...By 12z 1/17....00z low mean was in northern FL, 12z low mean is over Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Thanks Jon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Grit. Does the ensembles show a two part system like the operational? I know the op goes from MS/LA to Sav off of Wilmington. Too warm all liquid the first part then a secondary s/w comes through Sunday night/ Monday morning with crashing temps and possible snow along the VA border into VA. I see the northern mountains could benefit from this s/w as well. nc - it looks like one storm coming out for Sun night / Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Outside the mountains..not sure what everyone is trying to track. Even the 00z Euro looks pretty fail to me. It shows trace-dusting amounts into a lot of NC (with a bit more on the North part).. but as a whole... Winter precipitation is over imo. Can't say I'll miss the cold either. I've read some stupid articles around the net trying to mention the super storm from 93'. Those people are insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Outside the mountains..not sure what everyone is trying to track. Even the 00z Euro looks pretty fail to me. It shows trace-dusting amounts into a lot of NC (with a bit more on the North part).. but as a whole... Winter precipitation is over imo. Can't say I'll miss the cold either. I've read some stupid articles around the net trying to mention the super storm from 93'. Those people are insane Tell that to Austin Caviness who just showed, on our news, the European model dropping 1.5 inches imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 6z GFS, at hour 132, showing some snow cover along the I-85 corridor from Charlotte to Raleigh: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=06&fhour=132¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Not a lot of chatter on this, but GFS and Euro both showing 1 to 2 inches of snow for a lot of NC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Not a lot of chatter on this, but GFS and Euro both showing 1 to 2 inches of snow for a lot of NC now. Here you go....you must have missed it: Outside the mountains..not sure what everyone is trying to track. Even the 00z Euro looks pretty fail to me. It shows trace-dusting amounts into a lot of NC (with a bit more on the North part).. but as a whole... Winter precipitation is over imo. Can't say I'll miss the cold either. I've read some stupid articles around the net trying to mention the super storm from 93'. Those people are insane. Tell that to Austin Caviness who just showed, on our news, the European model dropping 1.5 inches imby. 6z GFS, at hour 132, showing some snow cover along the I-85 corridor from Charlotte to Raleigh: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=06&fhour=132¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Here you go....you must have missed it: I thought there would be more discussion on it than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 00z Euro ensembles are down for most places, RDU included, lost most big dog solutions and the individual members with snow has also lowered. 23/50 have snow, highest member is 8", most members are in the T-2" range with a mean of 1" GSO: 2" CLT: 0.5" HKY: ~1" AVL: 1.2" GSP: too low to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Outside the mountains..not sure what everyone is trying to track. Even the 00z Euro looks pretty fail to me. It shows trace-dusting amounts into a lot of NC (with a bit more on the North part).. but as a whole... Winter precipitation is over imo. Can't say I'll miss the cold either. I've read some stupid articles around the net trying to mention the super storm from 93'. Those people are insane. I'm not a big fan of definitive statements like this with regards to the weather. We have a hard enough time predicting the high temperatures for tomorrow, much less predicting what might happen next week. When tax day gets here, I might endorse your statement, but before then the weather is much too variable for me to claim to know what it is going to do next. This next part is not solely directed at you, Shawn, but at members in general: Why do people feel the need to pronounce a death to winter? Is it somehow cathartic? The weather does not care whether you or I think winter is over or not. Whatever will happen will happen, and our opinions on the matter are generally worthless. Sit back, enjoy the ride, whether it happens to be cold and wintry or warm and spring-like. They are both awesome scenarios, and I will choose to bask in the glory of whichever hand I happen to be dealt, but I won't claim to know which is going to definitively happen from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'm not a big fan of definitive statements like this with regards to the weather. We have a hard enough time predicting the high temperatures for tomorrow, much less predicting what might happen next week. When tax day gets here, I might endorse your statement, but before then the weather is much too variable for me to claim to know what it is going to do next. This next part is not solely directed at you, Shawn, but at members in general: Why do people feel the need to pronounce a death to winter? Is it somehow cathartic? The weather does not care whether you or I think winter is over or not. Whatever will happen will happen, and our opinions on the matter are generally worthless. Sit back, enjoy the ride, whether it happens to be cold and wintry or warm and spring-like. They are both awesome scenarios, and I will choose to bask in the glory of whichever hand I happen to be dealt, but I won't claim to know which is going to definitively happen from here on out. Good post, Calc. And according to DT, A snowstorm doesn't happen because the GFS shows one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I guess ultimately your location and prespective of this plays a huge role and probably with out a doubt winter weather is over south of the GA mountains and well south of the NC/SC line. But timing of this is not going to allow this to become a major storm. If the pieces would come together early enough this could be a significant event for much of NC almost border line major on the Euro. There is a potent southern stream s/w that will bring the rain a cold rain at that for most of NC. But the northern stream is lagging behind with no interaction prior to the arrival of s/w in the southern stream which by then is over VA/NC/GA/SC. Pretty much any phasing to occur is last min too late. But on the 0Z operational euro there maybe slight improvements from its 12z counter part. Wetter overall for much of VA. But if the temp crashes are correct then most of NC/VA with be a rain to snow. Even a few northern border counties of SC may see flakage depending on the amount of moisture available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 RNK .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROF IN THE EAST BY MONDAYBUT WERE STILL DIFFERENT ON THE TIMING. SIMILARLY...THEDIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SHOW UP ON THE SURFACE FORECASTS.CANADIAN HAS A LOW OVER VIRGINIA BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00ZECMWF HAS IT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPROMISE FROM WPC HAS ANELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM GEORGIA TO THE CAROLINA COAST.850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN JUST BELOW ZERO BEHIND THE COLDFRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THAT AIR MASS THROUGHMONDAY. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRIPE OF SNOW OR WINTERPRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATIONSHIELD ENDS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GSP THE BIGGER DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS OCCURS SUN THROUGH TUE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE GFS ISMAINTAINING NEARLY UNIFORM FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND THUS ANEARLY STATIONARY COASTAL SFC FRONT...THE ECMWF AND CMC DEVELOP ASTRONG ULVL TROF AND COASTAL MILLER/A CYCLOGENESIS SUN NIGHT. THISLATTER SCENARIO WOULD BRING IN MUCH GREATER MOISTURE AND ALONG WITHSOME MEASURE OF LOWERING PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND DIURNALCOOLING...SN OR A RA/SN MIX SUN AND MON NIGHTS. THIS IDEA WAS GIVENA LITTLE MORE WEIGHT THAN THE TOTALLY SUPPRESSED AND DRY GFS SOLN.THE GOING MID CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT THROUGH MONNIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE NC MTNS EARLY MON AND PERHAPS LOWEND ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT MON NIGHT.TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND LIKELY DROP TO8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MON WITH WINDS SHIFTING NE/LY AS ACANADIAN HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND A BROAD ULVL TROF DEVELOPSOVER THE ERN CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Gotta like that! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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