Shawn Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I feel many of us could possibly see severe.. especially further away from nc/mountains in the end. Will be fun to watch the models evolve this system and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 yep the storm on Monday 17th twc is showing a high of 52 but then a mix on wednesday the 19th. I thought march according to twc was suppose to be colder than normal in the entire east, well we have 70 today and 70 tomorrow. something wrong with this picture, doesn't match up with the month of march forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Surprised more aren't talking about this one. Now inside 200 hours. 12z CMC found it, although has a weird track/look, it bombs 18z GFS has a similar look. Screams of cold chasing moisture though, we'll see. Should be fun to track. isn't it 95 percent of the time cold chasing moisture. just 40 percent of the time I'd like to have the cold air in place where its moisture coming in to cold air already here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 yep the storm on Monday 17th twc is showing a high of 52 but then a mix on wednesday the 19th. I thought march according to twc was suppose to be colder than normal in the entire east, well we have 70 today and 70 tomorrow. something wrong with this picture, doesn't match up with the month of march forecast. It's TWC. Pretty sure their 10 day+ is automatically generated from the latest GFS, so that forecast isn't really a surprise considering the system comes later. Why are you looking at TWC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 It's TWC. Pretty sure their 10 day+ is automatically generated from the latest GFS, so that forecast isn't really a surprise considering the system comes later. Why are you looking at TWC? your right why am I looking at twc? think I would have learned my lesson by now. they seem to show so easily snow for the northeast but when it comes to nc and areas around nc its like pulling teeth for them to show us we have a chance of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Don't you know when it comes to TWC the rest of the USA doesn't exist except NY,Philly,Boston and Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Anybody looking at TWC or Accuweather for an accurate forecast must be intentionally trying to get wrong information....especially beyond a couple of days, much less more than a week out! The 0z GFS doesn't make a lot of sense in how it is able to get enough cold this far south for snow. The system takes a good track and the verbatim output is probably snow, but no way it would be cold enough, if its H5 prog is right, which it isn't. The 6z, IMO, is a much more likely scenario, which shows very little snow outside the mountains. The Euro is still hanging the threat out in the D9-10 range. The good thing about the latest trends is that the track appears to be favorable for some areas in the SE. I'm not sure that there is currently a mechanism to get enough cold in here for snow, but there's plenty of time to define that as we get closer. The favored areas are the mountains and the western areas of NC. Getting snow outside those areas is doable, but it's a tough ask this time of year. We're going to really need to see a strong high develop in a favorable location at just the right time, in order to expect more. In mid/late March, that is going to be crucial. Watch for that in the coming model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Don't you know when it comes to TWC the rest of the USA doesn't exist except NY,Philly,Boston and Atlanta. Same way with Accunot. They only care about the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Anybody looking at TWC or Accuweather for an accurate forecast must be intentionally trying to get wrong information....especially beyond a couple of days, much less more than a week out! The 0z GFS doesn't make a lot of sense in how it is able to get enough cold this far south for snow. The system takes a good track and the verbatim output is probably snow, but no way it would be cold enough, if its H5 prog is right, which it isn't. The 6z, IMO, is a much more likely scenario, which shows very little snow outside the mountains. The Euro is still hanging the threat out in the D9-10 range. The good thing about the latest trends is that the track appears to be favorable for some areas in the SE. I'm not sure that there is currently a mechanism to get enough cold in here for snow, but there's plenty of time to define that as we get closer. The favored areas are the mountains and the western areas of NC. Getting snow outside those areas is doable, but it's a tough ask this time of year. We're going to really need to see a strong high develop in a favorable location at just the right time, in order to expect more. In mid/late March, that is going to be crucial. Watch for that in the coming model cycles. My guess looking at the last couple of runs would be one of those situations where we get snow falling but nothing can stick due to lackluster rates. I'm still not overly excited about March doing much. Last week was a bit of good timing with the CAD entrenched but even then we couldn't seem to get enough cold air so thus the majority of it for most was ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 12z CMC gives almost the whole state of NC a widespread inch of snow with Greenville jackpotting around 5" on Monday-Tuesday. Haha whats new. Even gives upstate SC a couple of inches. It also has a pretty large clipper system loaded up and about to dip south @hr 240 but that is a ways away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I haven't looked at a model since Thursday, but come on Euro, not this again, where is spring, the PV is sitting just above the lakes…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 JB says long way to go for some areas, Place's not to far from NC I'm sure has a ways to go especially NC Mountains!!! So get your little spring flag, and put it away if you live in the anywhere north of I-40 cause this may not be done yet even that far south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The 12z Euro shows a pretty nice winter storm solution for the western half of NC (roughly) on March 17th-18th. Looks like a major storm for roughly Burlington to Statesvile and north and west of there. Surface temperatures are around 32-33 with 850s well below 0C. Probably a wet snow accumulating to roughly 3-6", which would probably stick given that rates look pretty good. A funky setup, but ULLs are magical sometimes. This is probably a waste of my time given that it's the middle of March, but I can't help myself. As has been noted, there's also a clipper on March 19th that might drop a little snow (skeptical on accumulations, though). Whatever the case, snow or not, it's cold for mid to late March. Looks like a fair amount of mid-20s for lows for much of NC and N GA in the extended, all the way out to D10. EDIT: The 18z GFS has picked up on some snow on 3/17-3/18 for some areas, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The 12z Euro shows a pretty nice winter storm solution for the western half of NC (roughly) on March 17th-18th. Looks like a major storm for roughly Burlington to Statesvile and north and west of there. Surface temperatures are around 32-33 with 850s well below 0C. Probably a wet snow accumulating to roughly 3-6", which would probably stick given that rates look pretty good. A funky setup, but ULLs are magical sometimes. This is probably a waste of my time given that it's the middle of March, but I can't help myself. As has been noted, there's also a clipper on March 19th that might drop a little snow (skeptical on accumulations, though). Whatever the case, snow or not, it's cold for mid to late March. Looks like a fair amount of mid-20s for lows for much of NC and N GA in the extended, all the way out to D10. You and GaWx keep up the updates! Sounds like cold I'd coming, whether it snows or not! Just might be hard to stay up til 2-3 to wait on the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 RAH this afternoon CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 6 AND 7 IS VERY LOW WITH A VERY COMPLICATEDPATTERN THAT SUGGEST A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALONG WITHSOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY COULD RESULT IN A STORM SYSTEM THATMOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CALENDAR AND NWP GUIDANCESUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT OF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BELIMITED BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN A TYPICAL WINTER AND THE COLDER AIRWILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY. FOR NOW FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPSFOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.-BLAES&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I think this storm has legs on the 18th. If you look the AO is dropping towards negative and the NAO looks to go negative in that time frame which we have not seen in quite awhile. If the NAO does go negative then I think odds are pretty good for a storm to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 If the nao goes negative now, so long to any chance of a delightful spring. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 If the nao goes negative now, so long to any chance of a delightful spring. TW All four weeks of this evening's Euro weeklies have the SE in somewhat below normal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I know it's the 18z GFS, but it shows an interesting snow event for RDU. Surface temps are a little iffy to start, but the 850 and 950 temps drop below 0°C per Meteostar as the day goes along. Meteogram Generator shows about 3.75" snowfall. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I haven't looked at a model since Thursday, but come on Euro, not this again, where is spring, the PV is sitting just above the lakes…. I think euros bias is in effect with this one. But if the trend continue towards euro... there should be more cold air available with the setup in whole and ULL than the last one. 540dm would be certainly stronger ULL wise unlike the last. Overall between the 3... all showing a decent frontal passage with CAA taking place and the possibility of moisture in the cold. Looks Interesting! Certainly does. Not too far off of the 12z gfs and 12z CMC. Even though there is differences of the other features too. But possibly a cold front passing through CAA filtering in with an upper level disturbance causing precip behind the front in cold air. Both look worlds apart from the Euro, but also support the general theme of the Euro with a W/ NW NC wintry event. Differences but also similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I spoke too soon... the 0z GFS is as dry as a martini Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I spoke too soon... the 0z GFS is as dry as a martini lol, GFS is cold and digs the storm wave all the way into the southern Gulf, with sfc low in Cuba...historically, that kind of setup on the mid range GFS translates well for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 00z Euro has a 1006mb low off Wilmington and drops a decent hit for Central and Eastern NC. Ensemble mean is 2" for RDU with 23 members with snow and 4 big dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 how about the mtns. from the system on the 17-18 next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 00z Euro has a 1006mb low off Wilmington and drops a decent hit for Central and Eastern NC. Ensemble mean is 2" for RDU with 23 members with snow and 4 big dogs. I haven't really been following things since I am more ready for spring now than seeing more snow. Is this for the St Patrick's Day system? Is the Euro the only one showing snow here now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I haven't really been following things since I am more ready for spring now than seeing more snow. Is this for the St Patrick's Day system? Is the Euro the only one showing snow here now? not to many folks talking much Brick. I don't know if the 17th storm is still showing or not. Just looked at Roberts facebook and he doesn't sound to bullish on any freezing precip for anyone in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 i thought Monday was suppose to be looking pretty good for some in nc. don't know if our experts are tired from the last storm or not really much showing up right now or both. I should say for Asheville the non storm. all we had was a little rain/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro Ensemble moved south and has a sfc low tracking across northern FL, then off the Carolina coast with high pressure moving from Lake Superior to just north of New York state (this is Sun night / Mon). 850mb temps are marginal, but 0 deg line moves into NW NC during the storm. UKMet looks similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 00z Euro has a 1006mb low off Wilmington and drops a decent hit for Central and Eastern NC. Ensemble mean is 2" for RDU with 23 members with snow and 4 big dogs. You talking about between 144 and 168? That's the only thing I can see on eWall that looks close. Everything else looks like garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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