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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion III

Marion_NC_WX

By Marion_NC_WX,
in Southeastern States

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Burger or packbacker, do you have access to the eps mean or individual members? I wanted to see how they were looking this morning.

 

ENS mean looks about the same as the 12z ENS to me. Temps in NC look good with freezing line around CLT for a lot of the event. HP is 1032 in the plains moving to the east to 1028 then pushing out. @138 there is a 1032 HP in norther NY but it moves out in the next panel. Individual members I would guess have some big ones. 

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

ENS mean looks about the same as the 12z ENS to me. Temps in NC look good with freezing line around CLT for a lot of the event. HP is 1032 in the plains moving to the east to 1028 then pushing out. @138 there is a 1032 HP in norther NY but it moves out in the next panel. Individual members I would guess have some big ones.

Sounds good. Thanks for the update.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH from last night also focusing the best chances of snow for the western piedmont:

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...

THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST IN CLASSICAL DRY CAD FASHION...AND RESULT IN A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE EAST COAST TUE AND WED. ATTENTION WILL THEN
TURN TO A WAVE THAT NWP GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID-LATE WEEK. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...BUT BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS
HAVE BEEN SETTLING ON A PREFERRED TIMING OVER OUR REGION THU THROUGH
EARLY FRI. THE MORE QUICKLY THE LOW AND PRECEDING WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION SHIELD APPROACH...THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECEDING ARCTIC
HIGH WILL STILL BE IN FAVORABLE POSITION TO PRODUCE A WINTRY WEATHER
IMPACT OVER CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THE FAVORED MILLER "A" PATTERN OF
CYCLOGENESIS...RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPES...WITH THE LATTER FAVORED OVER THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED
WESTERN PIEDMONT...PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE EVENT THU-THU
NIGHT...BEFORE THE PARENT HIGH WEAKENS/RETREATS BY FRI.
 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

The 6Z is the 3rd out of the last 4 and 2nd in a row implying a major ZR/IP for ATL-AHN 3/6-7 (decent IP AHN to n ATL) and the first MAR storm if it's kind there since 3/25/1971. Actually, this run is the coldest yet and actually has it verbatim though with 29 at AHN and 31 at ATL and 1"+ below or near 32. Considering how incredibly cold it is up near the 1040 mb high in the ne (likely way overdone but has temp of 0 at NYC 3/6 12z and 13 td HKY then), I'd expect 27ish at AHN and 28 ATL. Also, for some reason it warms up too much too quickly for the 2nd inch of qpf while there still is some CAD initially. The upper low is too warm for snow due to 850 of +3. But would it still be ZR or IP?

I think someone now needs to create a thread for this obvious major threat. It doesn't need to be definite to have a thread though the threat is clearly increasing and is pretty high right now. It would reduce confusion with the preceding NC event. Who wants to do it?

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Well, this last ice storm is taking days to clean up from.  I just took a huge dead pine down today, and spent all day yesterday cutting trees off the back fence.  At least the coming storm will give me some pretty snow, maybe, to cover up all the new downed limbs and trees, lol...if the bulk is zr.  The UL  looks to favor me, and recent ones have done, but this time I need lower 850's from a much stronger high.  This last one just didn't get in quickly enough, or cold enough for much sleet...but at least the bulk of the precip missed being zr.  This one looks a good bit better, on a long range map, so maybe I'll finally get my sleet :)  That is impressive cad..and the last one wasn't bad.  T

I-26 coming to and from Charleston has been a disaster, and they are still cleaning up   :(    

 

The 6Z is the 3rd out of the last 4 and 2nd in a row implying a major ZR/IP for ATL-AHN 3/6-7 (decent IP AHN to n ATL) and the first MAR storm if it's kind there since 3/25/1971. Actually, this run is the coldest yet and actually has it verbatim though with 29 at AHN and 31 at ATL and 1"+ below or near 32. Considering how incredibly cold it is up near the 1040 mb high in the ne (likely way overdone but has temp of 0 at NYC 3/6 12z and 13 td HKY then), I'd expect 27ish at AHN and 28 ATL. Also, for some reason it warms up too much too quickly for the 2nd inch of qpf while there still is some CAD initially. The upper low is too warm for snow due to 850 of +3. But would it still be ZR or IP?

I think someone now needs to create a thread for this obvious major threat. It doesn't need to be definite to have a thread though the threat is clearly increasing and is pretty high right now. It would reduce confusion with the preceding NC event. Who wants to do it?

Agreed...but whoever it is better bring me snow/IP instead of ZR   :P  

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

It would be funny if this storm ends up surprising us after previously focusing on 3/6. Maybe we can do both?

The UKMET is probably too far south, but the modelling has been shifting further south with almost every run, so it might not be completely unrealistic.

For RDU this is absolutely our best chance to see some snow/ice this week, 3/6-7 is a pipe dream for us, not western NC though.

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

btw, to drive home the fact the models are going to have a tough time with this. The gfs warms surface temps 5 degrees or so in the very heart of the wedge from hour 132 to 138...despite tons of precip and the high still firmly in damming position. Sun is getting strong this time of year and maybe that's what it's seeing but that is a pretty huge stretch.

i should probably finish reading the last couple of pages before posting (ha) but of course i wont :) in the event the cad verifies close to what is being shown, and a fresh supply of colder drier air being reinforced i agree the warming should be limited if the CAD locks in.  still very wary of an ice event in ga in march but hey, had anyone tried to convince me we would have seen multiple single digit lows in one winter, a blast that let us watch the temp drop several degrees every 30 min, and the snowfalls in the same winter last nov or dec i would have laughed.

 

while the pattern has shifted since earlier this winter to a degree, i still see no reason why we couldnt have one more chance next week, esp since the hp have been pretty impressive this year.  most of the climo cad events (though not in march) usually show temps rising above freezing before the precip ends, usually (for ne ga at least) it all generally falls frozen, warming up after the main precip shield moves out.  then its some drizzle and 33 lol

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 Folks,

 The 11-15 day model consensus is suggesting a nice +PNA for mid-March, the most +PNA since January. So, winter is still far from being done per model consensus! :)

 Fwiw, the 18Z GFS has the coldest at ATL of the entire 16 day period on day 16 with a hard freeze. Long live winter and keep the bugs quiet! :)

 Of course, Tony would always says winter isn't done before then, regardless. ;)

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Folks,

 The 11-15 day model consensus is suggesting a nice +PNA for mid-March, the most +PNA since January. So, winter is still far from being done per model consensus! :)

 Fwiw, the 18Z GFS has the coldest at ATL of the entitre 16 day period on day 16 with a hard freeze. Long live winter and keep the bugs quiet! :)

 Of course, Tony would always says winter isn't done before then, regardless. ;)

I just got in from being away from the computer all weekend and was just getting ready to post that the 12z GFS shows pretty much a wintertime pattern through the entire run, with several threats. It, and even the Euro, have the Cold Rain 3/11 - 3/13 threat! ;)

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Euro Ensemble has a big arctic plunge days 7-10. 850 zero deg line gets to south GA

Ya the upcoming pattern for this time period looks really good for a big storm along the East coast and for a big trough to setup temporary in the East. The PNA looks to go very positive and the mjo is coming alive in phases 7,8, and 1. Also the NAO May briefly go negative which is something to keep an eye on.
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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Ya the upcoming pattern for this time period looks really good for a big storm along the East coast and for a big trough to setup temporary in the East. The PNA looks to go very positive and the mjo is coming alive in phases 7,8, and 1. Also the NAO May briefly go negative which is something to keep an eye on.

Below is the 6z GFS at hour 300. This should normally be Banter material, at best, but look at it more for the overall pattern depiction. As you stated, if the PNA does go strongly positve we could be looking at a cold pattern for mid to late March.  

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=300&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140306+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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timnc910

timnc910

Posted
Posted

i know all the focus is on the current storm but there is some buzz going on about a storm next week.. imho i think it will be a better chance than this one.... with the models hinting on a +pna and trough in the east i'm liking this period... however the amount of cold air the trough can bring down with it and how cold it will be will be the main thing to watch.whatever develops next week could be interesting... it looks like the storm will take almost the same track as tonight storm.. if we get the trough like models are showing it will be key in the track... just when you think winter is over mother nature say different. this is just my opinion i'm not trying to forecast anything because i have no skills in that department.. 

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Below is the 6z GFS at hour 300. This should normally be Banter material, at best, but look at it more for the overall pattern depiction. As you stated, if the PNA does go strongly positve we could be looking at a cold pattern for mid to late March.  

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=300&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140306+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

That would be a shot in the gut after having near 70 the beginning of next week.

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