Stormsfury Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 if the upcoming 3/2-3/3 storm performs up north like expected, that damming high will have a ton of fresh snowpack worth, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Two things to keep in mind here after the last storm's actual impact analysis 1. The Euro will overdo the QPF 2. There WILL be a warm nose which switches the sn to zr and/or Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is as good a CIP's analogs I have ever seen at 5 days. Huge hits for 85 and points west in NC on over half the analogs. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg= How do they look for I-85 and points EAST? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 if the upcoming 3/2-3/3 storm performs up north like expected, that damming high will have a ton of fresh snowpack worth, FWIW. The 18z GFS is a disaster for the MA and NE, shifted way south, has the heavy snow in central VA, major icing in northern NC, LOL. Going to be a lot of ticked off northerners... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 How do they look for I-85 and points EAST? MEH for us, a couple of good, majority are GSO and points west, and especially foothills and mountains. Still if your a glass half full kind of guy they are pretty good indicator for a winter storm in central/western NC. You know me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 18z GFS is a major ice storm for I-40 north between 95 and 85. Edit: I don't by it but that was another big shift, 18z GFS is always crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 18z GFS is a disaster for the MA and NE, shifted way south, has the heavy snow in central VA, major icing in northern NC, LOL. Going to be a lot of ticked off northerners... Haha. We don't need too much more shifting to get some backside snows here (doubtful, but still). Verbatim, it ices, at least. Perhaps that will bode well for down the line, too. MEH for us, a couple of good, majority are GSO and points west, and especially foothills and mountains. Still if your a glass half full kind of guy they are pretty good indicator for a winter storm in central/western NC. You know me... I'm always glass half-full... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Haha. We don't need too much more shifting to get some backside snows here (doubtful, but still). Verbatim, it ices, at least. Perhaps that will bode well for down the line, too. I'm always glass half-full... It almost completely misses LGA, it's flurries for Boston. GFS up to it's old tricks with the 18z run, always get crazy 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 18z GFS is a major ice storm for I-40 north between 95 and 85. Edit: I don't by it but that was another big shift, 18z GFS is always crazy. You talking about 3/3 now or the late week storm? Thanks for the CIPS info, by the way. Let's move that a little south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You talking about 3/3 now or the late week storm? Thanks for the CIPS info, by the way. Let's move that a little south and east. 3/3 event, LOL. The SuperJames storms looks much better on the 18z GFS run. Gotta run so won't see the end of it, HP is holding in better, little north of what we want though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 3/3 event, LOL. The SuperJames storms looks much better on the 18z GFS run. Gotta run so won't see the end of it, HP is holding in better, little north of what we want though. Haha, awesome! Thanks buddy. Not at the computer right now, so I appreciate the PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Last post…18z GFS coming around, of course it's the crazy 18z GFS... NOTE: This is a 2m map not 850, this is all ice on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well, the HP holds together much longer on the 18z GFS, but we pretty much get no storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Gfs is a dumpster fire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 if the upcoming 3/2-3/3 storm performs up north like expected, that damming high will have a ton of fresh snowpack worth, FWIW. POST of the year right there!! Mike, excellent point, and I fully agree. Thats going to be some cold and dry air with a TON of snowpack. to keep it cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Good disco by GSP this afternoon as they tend to favor a Euro-like solution as the GFS and its ensembles have trended toward the Euro.... .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO COALESCE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WEATHER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...TEMPS AND RESULTANT P-TYPES REMAIN. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT DURING THE SHORT TERM QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUE AND WED. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING NW FLOW ACROSS THE MTNS MON EVENING WHICH WOULD END AS SNOW. HOWEVER...THE SNOW DURATION WOULD BE VERY BRIEF WITH NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON NITE INTO TUE AS WELL BEFORE THE HIGH FULLY BUILDS IN. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN CHANGES THU AND FRI AS A SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE SRN PLAINS THU AND MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY FRI. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH THE WAVE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN AND SLIGHTLY FASTER. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...LENDING CREDENCE TO THAT SCENARIO. AT THE SFC...THE WAVE/UPPER LOW SPINS UP A GULF LOW WHICH MOVES ACROSS FL THU THEN UP THE SERN COAST FRI. SINCE THE GFS IS FASTER AND WEAKER...IT KEEPS THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH...BUT SPREADS PRECIP IN SOONER AND MOVES PRECIP OUT FASTER. THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SFC LOW KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST INITIALLY AND THE SERN US COAST ON FRI. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS WELL. WPC ALSO FOLLOWING THIS TREND AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE GFS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE THIS DIRECTION AS WELL WITH CHC POP SPREADING IN THU AND CONTINUING THRU FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THU THEN RISING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FRI. H85 TEMPS ARE INITIALLY COLD THEN RISE THRU THE PERIOD AS WAA KICKS IN. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A WINTRY MIX MAY DEVELOP AS PRECIP MOVES IN EARLY THU...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THE P-TYPE WILL DEVELOP THU NITE...BUT WITH COLD SFC TEMPS REDEVELOPING AND WARMING H85 TEMPS...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO RAIN ON FRI. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TO SUGGEST WHETHER ANY WINTRY ACCUMS WILL DEVELOP...SO STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. jason on wlos in the long range was showing showers next thursday with a high of 44. even gsp is talking snow possible for next wednesday night late thursday morning. I have a feeling this is going to pan out to be colder and more snow that what the experts are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This just in from HPC, on the 3/6-7 storm next week. COLD LOW LVLAIR IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS ALONG WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES INSURROUNDING FLOW ALOFT FAVOR A RECENT TREND FOR A SOMEWHAT MORESUPPRESSED SFC TRACK THAN EARLIER RUNS. WPC PROGS GO ALONG WITHTHIS POTENT TREND BUT FALL SHORT OF DETERMINISTIC GFS/EC GUIDANCEIN LUE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONSIDERING LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. DEPENDING ON EXACT EVOLUTION THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME HVY RNFLOVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST AND A POTENTIALLY QUITESIGNIFICANT WINTRY PCPN THREAT IN THE MORE NRN PART OF THE MSTRSHIELD.IN THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE CNTRL-ERN STATES...EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF ANOMALIES REACHING 20-35F BELOW NORMAL ONMON... ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS EXTREME ON TUE... AND 10-20F BELOWNORMAL BY THU. AT SOME LOCATIONS MIN/MAX TEMP READINGS WILLLIKELY APPROACH OR REACH CALENDAR DAY RECORD COLD VALUES. WELCOMETO MARCH? IN LIKE A LION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I would be cautious jumping on the zr train in March. it's very rare this time of year, climo wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I would be cautious jumping on the zr train in March. it's very rare this time of year, climo wise. I agree, thinking it will be either rain or a wet snow. possibly a good wet snow for the mtns. and maybe piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 18z GFS is a disaster for the MA and NE, shifted way south, has the heavy snow in central VA, major icing in northern NC, LOL. Going to be a lot of ticked off northerners... meh, they are still going to get their snow. It's been their year. Regardless, the models show one of the strongest back door fronts/cad fronts I've ever seen, at least in terms of temperature drop over such a short distance with an advancing front. (i've seen 50 degree swings in ga between north and south ga). Just for fun, for example, the gfs has temps in the mid 60s just south of rdu while it's dropped into the uppers 20s just south of the va border. In fact this entire system is crazy. Out toward northern ms, western tn, etc the nam has 800 to 850mb temps of nearly 10c while 900mb temps are -10C! here is a sounding around memphis at 57 hours on the nam. nearly 11c at 875mb..and -4c at 925mb! That is insane. A few hours later, 925mb temps drop to around -13c while 800 to 850mb temps cool to 4 or 5c. I've never seen such a huge difference in such a small bit of height. And this really takes place everywhere along this boundary all the way into nc/va. Just look at the 925mb temp maps over va/nc. It's nuts. Around the nc/va border, 925mb temps go from 10c to -6c in just a few hours over northern nc! 975mb temps go from 13c to -4c in just a few hours. Surface temps near rdu go from the low to mid 50s to upper 20s in the same time span. Unreal. And to think this happens in march. Simply an amazing boundary (which of course fizzles to nothing by the time it gets here) this is out near memphis showing that crazy warmth above crazy cold. NAM Text Sounding | 00 UTC Mon 03 Mar 2014 | Latitude: 35.4661 | Longitude: -90.0585 PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 1009.7 75 -2.5 -3.9 90 2.9 8 16 -2.9 -2.0 269.9 277.8 270.4 1000.0 151 -3.6 -4.6 93 2.7 9 19 -3.9 -3.2 269.6 277.1 270.0 975.0 350 -5.7 -5.8 99 2.5 13 22 -5.7 -5.3 269.4 276.4 269.8 950.0 553 -7.9 -7.9 100 2.2 22 26 -7.9 -7.5 269.2 275.4 269.6 925.0 761 -4.3 -4.3 100 3.0 42 19 -4.3 -3.8 274.9 283.4 275.4 900.0 982 7.0 7.0 100 7.1 178 14 7.1 8.2 288.7 308.9 290.0 875.0 1216 10.7 10.7 100 9.3 200 31 10.7 12.3 294.9 321.9 296.5 850.0 1458 10.0 10.0 100 9.2 211 36 10.0 11.6 296.6 323.4 298.2 825.0 1706 9.1 9.1 100 8.8 221 35 9.1 10.6 298.1 324.2 299.7 800.0 1961 7.6 7.6 100 8.3 240 33 7.6 9.0 299.2 323.7 300.7 775.0 2223 6.5 6.4 100 7.9 252 34 6.5 7.8 300.7 324.2 302.1 750.0 2491 4.7 4.7 100 7.2 249 28 4.7 5.9 301.7 323.4 303.0 725.0 2767 3.2 3.2 100 6.7 244 25 3.2 4.3 302.9 323.1 304.1 700.0 3051 0.9 0.9 100 5.9 242 27 0.9 1.8 303.4 321.3 304.5 gfs surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 burrel, the our usrv screwzone is in full effect. We are dead last to cool off. Thankfully there isn't any precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 burrel, the our usrv screwzone is in full effect. We are dead last to cool off. Thankfully there isn't any precip lol, yea, hopefully we can avoid a situation like that next week. I have to say I am pretty excited about the potential for the Thursday event. Especially when the Ukmet,CMC, and Euro are all in fairly decent agreement that we will have substantial storm on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'll be watching the qpf as time approaches. The only time I see that much precip go frozen any time in winter is when it's ip or zr. Two inches liquid being snow across Ga. would be very unusual, lol. I ain't saying it won't happen, it'll just "unusual" down to Macon And I don't think I'll see an inch, or an inch and a half freeze on trees too many more times either. That takes some special circumstances any time of winter, but "unusual" for March, lol. If it's 1 1/2 liquid or more, it'll most like likely be rain in Ga, or rain with a mix, except that one time in my life when I'm going to hit the 500 year jackpot....., when it's not the zrain from hell. Is this that one? I'm watching the qpf...... and I'm leery of heavy snow warnings too, lol, because I've never seen one perform. They will stab you deep then twist the knife just to see you squeal, lol. Oh, sure the guy up the road will see a foot, but not everywhere...not in Ga. unless it's a 100, 200, 500 year storm. We don't get that lucky .4 to .7 I can believe. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For the record for ATL: The 12Z 2/28 Euro has a major IP/ZR from a Miller A GOM low that crosses far N FL combined with a powerful 1042 mb NE wedging high followed by major snows from the lagging very strong upper low!! IF this were to verify, it would be like two major storms in one and would perhaps be a top 10 storm on record! Verbatim, it gives ATL a whopping ~1.25" of wintry qpf and this is based on the warm biased (at two meters) Euro! So, if I were to adjust for the warm bias, it could easily be more like 1.75" of wintry qpf considering that the total qpf is a whopping 2"! Using this adjustment, the 12Z Euro gives ATL ~1" of qpf in the form of ZR/IP (starting as ZR with 850's near +4 and changing to IP since 850's fall to +2 and then near 0 late day) on Thursday 3/6 starting a little before sunrise followed by ~~6" of snow lasting all night from ~0.75 of qpf (being a little conservative) with 850's just colder than 0C Thursday night (3/6-7) (~24 hours of precip)! Several other Euro runs flirted with major ZR in ATL. Several Canadian runs have shown major ZR/IP in ATL. Euro/GFS ensemble means have been mainly supportive of a winter storm 3/6-7. There were a couple of Euro ensemble means in a row that suggested a major ZR threat for ATL while the Euro op.'s were warm outliers showing just a rain storm. Even if it were to happen to play out similarly to the 12Z Euro, I'd be wary of the Euro qpf quite possibly being too heavy based on 2/12-13, which verified at about 1" vs. ~1.5" on the Euro right before the storm. Actually, many runs at around this point in time were at ~1" qpf, which verified. So, perhaps the total 2" qpf would have a shot at verifying, too. However, if runs right before the storm were to rise dramatically, I'd take then with a grain. The first Euro run to show a winter storm for GA and SC 2/12-13 (2nd wave) was the 12Z run of 2/6 or six days prior to the start of the 2nd wave. From that run on, every run til the storm showed it verbatim except one run had ATL a few degrees above 32 despite 850's cold enough for ZR considering the strong wedge. Coincidence or not, the first Euro to show it for GA verbatim this time is also six days before its forecasted start!! (The 0Z 2/28 run was cold enough at 850 with a strong wedge originating from an impressive 1039 mb NE high to give N GA ZR but its two meters were shown to stay in the 30's above 32, which I wasn't buying.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Great work Chris and Larry, as always! My question to you all/and everyone is, when is the last time we have seen a high move into position, not only a day before qpf starts, but coming into NE from the NW right out of southern Canada...NOT coming into like MT and spreading E and trying to get into postion that way. Will coming onlydown into postion from SE Canada vs central canada and MT/MN be better for us overall? When is the last time we have seen a 1042mb high, or any strength high do that lately? Also it appears that Td should be lower this time as well. To me, which is weird saying this because its March, its SCREAMING ZR/IP all the way down to MCN. Then the closed ULL and dymaically driven comma head snows would be a bonus. Not to mention the High really doesn't look like its getting kicked out until the storm is over. When is the last time we have seen that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 WPC's updated sfc maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 well......Grit....kind of telling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm not excited about the 12Z, temps are extremely warm... 850-700mb thickness maps are even worse.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm not excited about the 12Z, temps are extremely warm... 850-700mb thickness maps are even worse.... That looks wonky to me... no way it sets up like that, plus with the euros warm bias it'll be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That looks wonky to me... no way it sets up like that, plus with the euros warm bias it'll be good hope the models wrong. would be nice to get another snow before spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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