GaWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If we think about it.. I see on the EPS members for KCAE.. it shows the heavy precip came down around 3/7-3/8... maybe over night? No real time stamps. Anyway, we are 7 days away if that's right.. and it's definitely a good thing to see the Euro EPS start to get stronger with it. We both know just what the EPS was capable of back in Early Feb. The 12Z GFS has early afternoon temperatures on Wed. 3/6 over 10 degrees colder in much of N GA with cold rain (30's) vs. no rain and high 40's last three runs. Trend is great! Finally the GFS is catching on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12Z GFS has early afternoon temperatures on Wed. 3/6 over 10 degrees colder in much of N GA with cold rain (30's) vs. no rain and high 40's last three runs. Trend is great! Finally the GFS is catching on? I saw it weakened/moved the HP out a little fast.. to get ice outside of NC.. but yes.. quite interesting to see the 1040 just parked up there.. At 7 days out.. I like the look. Edit: I'm looking forward to tonight's EPS members and the GGEM even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The SLP never gets going, the main SS energy gets left behind in southern TX day 5-6, looking at the vorticity maps it looks like the SE ridge is holding it up from moving along and getting to a neutral/negative trough. Probably why the Euro is so slow with it, although I haven't looked at the 0z Euro's yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Verbatim it looks to be some sleet to frzn for I-40 north in NC, probably RDU and points west, give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The SLP never gets going, the main SS energy gets left behind in southern TX day 5-6, looking at the vorticity maps it looks like the SE ridge is holding it up from moving along and getting to a neutral/negative trough. Probably why the Euro is so slow with it, although I haven't looked at the 0z Euro's yet. It's there.. just a lot slower and less strong I would think. The idea of a storm being around and that stronger High is encouraging. I see the low really try and mature off the coast of NC by 150.. but it is quite messy and then when it really tries to go stronger.. its pulling away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well, if it sits there long enough, maybe it will give another high pressure a chance to build in and then come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's there.. just a lot slower and less strong I would think. The idea of a storm being around and that stronger High is encouraging. I see the low really try and mature off the coast of NC by 150.. but it is quite messy and then flops. I'm very encouraged and am getting closer to the point that I think there will be a CAD based SE winter storm ~3/6-7 with lots of IP and ZR at a minimum. I'm not calling for it yet. but the chances in my mind are increasing. There have been too many model runs from various models to ignore this. And now the GFS looks like it is starting to see the light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well, if it sits there long enough, maybe it will give another high pressure a chance to build in and then come out. This is slowly looking like an ensemble type storm. What I mean by that is.. the ensembles may handle this a bit better than the OPS so far. I do remember how Larry was speaking of even the Euro mean being way South and colder than the OP was. Have the GFS ensembles (individuals) been looking nutty on some too? One thing to take away is if this storm materializes.. the GGEM was the first to pick up on it. For the Feb 12th event.. the GFS grabbed it way out in lala land first.. before dropping it to have the Euro EPS then the OP grab it.. and the rest is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Kind of reminds me of the 2/12 event, the HP in place but a low comes along to the north and kicks it out, will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The progressive UK ain't bad either day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 CMC sucks, big rain event, light icing for western NC. Still a big coastal though, looks like it tracks the coastal up I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 2 things that aren't good with this setup for wintry weather, IMO: 1. The trough that digs into the southern plains is positive tilt. It would be better if it were more neutral tilt, allowing the precip to expand farther north into the cold air, quicker, as PB has alluded to. That's something to watch going forward because the cold air is on the retreat, which brings me to point #2... 2. The PV lobe that rotates from Hudson Bay to south of Greenland delivers the cold, surface high pressure in its wake...but there's no North Atlantic / Greenland ridging (+NAO), so the PV lobe is allowed to move on out to the northeast, with the sfc high doing the same, and the cold air is on the retreat. I don't think #2 is going to change...getting precip in quicker with adjustments to #1 would be the improvement to watch for, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 To the GFS image posted.. I believe that low around the lakes was overdone and kicked the High out too fast about this far out and even as we got closer on that model for 02/12. Something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The CMC last night would be one of the biggest snow storms ever for many in the Piedmont. I counted over one inch of QPF all snow for CLT and surrounding areas. Even more for Greensboro. Still not guying it but dayuuuum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 CMC sucks, big rain event, light icing for western NC. Still a big coastal though, looks like it tracks the coastal up I-95. Sounds like the perfect track for mountains and foothills if there is any type of high to our north/northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is slowly looking like an ensemble type storm. What I mean by that is.. the ensembles may handle this a bit better than the OPS so far. I do remember how Larry was speaking of even the Euro mean being way South and colder than the OP was. Have the GFS ensembles (individuals) been looking nutty on some too? One thing to take away is if this storm materializes.. the GGEM was the first to pick up on it. For the Feb 12th event.. the GFS grabbed it way out in lala land first.. before dropping it to have the Euro EPS then the OP grab it.. and the rest is history. I haven't seen the individual GFS ENS other than what's on eWall...and the solutions vary, as you would espect. With so much energy flying around, I'm really not sure the ENS will help all that much with the details...other than to say there will likely be a storm somewhere over a 48 hour period, and there will likely be a high pressure that sits for a while before sliding out. But yeah, they're still a better way to go than the ops. Either way, the disconcerting thing is that even the best solutions at this point BARELY get the low in place before the high slides out. We need a solid trend in slowing down the high/anchoring it in place or speeding up the low. Otherwise, it'll be mostly rain for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 2 things that aren't good with this setup for wintry weather, IMO: 1. The trough that digs into the southern plains is positive tilt. It would be better if it were more neutral tilt, allowing the precip to expand farther north into the cold air, quicker, as PB has alluded to. That's something to watch going forward because the cold air is on the retreat, which brings me to point #2... 2. The PV lobe that rotates from Hudson Bay to south of Greenland delivers the cold, surface high pressure in its wake...but there's no North Atlantic / Greenland ridging (+NAO), so the PV lobe is allowed to move on out to the northeast, with the sfc high doing the same, and the cold air is on the retreat. I don't think #2 is going to change...getting precip in quicker with adjustments to #1 would be the improvement to watch for, IMO Yep, and your Point 2 is what I have been watching for several days. I doubt much will change there. Surprise, last minute blocking aint gonna save us. We must have the southern system evolve differently or it's little lambsy divey for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yep, and your Point 2 is what I have been watching for several days. I doubt much will change there. Surprise, last minute blocking aint gonna save us. We must have the southern system evolve differently or it's little lambsy divey for everybody. Yep, we never get lucky with cold, we either have it or we don't and with this storm a retreating HP means we don't, but another day of two of model watching can't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The CMC is a train wreck for everyone for the 3/3 event, probably a burp run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The CMC is a train wreck for everyone for the 3/3 event, probably a burp run for sure. I was wondering why nobody had mentioned it in the MA thread. Are you going to break the news to them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I was wondering why nobody had mentioned it in the MA thread. Are you going to break the news to them? LOL, no, but the JMA is way south, all models have trended south, hard to tell with the crappy UK maps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I was wondering why nobody had mentioned it in the MA thread. Are you going to break the news to them? They might ban you if you bring any bad news over there. You only got one response to your DGEX post. I thought it was a good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thru 144 Canadian still looks promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 They might ban you if you bring any bad news over there. You only got one response to your DGEX post. I thought it was a good post. Funny thing is the DGEX looked an awful lot like the 12z gfs. I really only post in that forum if I have good news or relevant experience to offer. I have been told to stop trolling by some over there before. I don't think they know what trolling really is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well, that's a fairly awesome map, Allan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Funny thing is the DGEX looked an awful lot like the 12z gfs. I really only post in that forum if I have good news or relevant experience to offer. I have been told to stop trolling by some over there before. I don't think they know what trolling really is! Yeah, half of their posts are tolling. It's rare than an outsider gets any response at all, even if it's filled with great info and valuable insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm going to ask what might be a dumb question. If it is, please forgive me and mods, please feel free to move this. What is the difference between the GGEM and the CMC? Are they just different terms for the same model or are they two different models? I've noticed that people post initally about the GGEM and then later posts come out, talking about the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm going to ask what might be a dumb question. If it is, please forgive me and mods, please feel free to move this. What is the difference between the GGEM and the CMC? Are they just different terms for the same model or are they two different models? I've noticed that people post initally about the GGEM and then later posts come out, talking about the Canadian. They are the same model. Taken literarlly out through 156, the canadian crushes the mountias with heavy snow, ice storm for foothills/western piedmont, RDU is brief ice to rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 They are the same model. Taken literarlly out through 156, the canadian crushes the mountias with heavy snow, ice storm for foothills/western piedmont, RDU is brief ice to rain so far. Ok, thanks. Regarding this run, I have to think that with that strong of a high in that location, we would end up with a more wintry solution...unless it rapidly retreats, much faster than the low moving in. I can't see the model yet, so it may be doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It brings in a lot of warm air from the coastal front near the coast. This is literally an Apps crusher with snow, it brings enough warm air to turn even the foothills to rain. I agree that it is probably underestimating the low level cold. It is also the Canadian at day 6-7 so it will change. For instance the 00z showed this! Again this is not the 12z but was last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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