mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It looks colder to my untrained eye on the free maps and storm looks stout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 King Alarm went off: 0Z Euro: looks much better! Big baby steps at least with much colder NE US/much more CAD and colder, stronger high NE as of hour 156 vs. 12Z Euro! After further review...LMBO...The EURO is DRAMATICALLY colder. This run is over 10 degrees colder at 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 00z Euro has a big 'ole fish storm in the Atlantic as our storm is taking shape in the Gulf at hr 156. This feature was displaced about 500+ miles SE and was much weaker at 12z. Quite a change.Will this help us or hurt us for wintry weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 00z Euro has a big 'ole fish storm in the Atlantic (it actually scrapes Cape Cod) as our storm is taking shape in the Gulf at hr 156. This feature was displaced about 500+ miles SE and was much weaker at 12z. Quite a change.This should pull down that real cold air from Canada , right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Will this help us or hurt us for wintry weather? It should help us. Some areas probably start out as ice on the 00z Euro. It's pretty close in the mid-levels. 850s are at 1C for a good portion of the storm in places like GSO, INT, and much of WNC whereas we were torching at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 the euro is like 10-20 degrees colder at 2m vs the 12z run....850's are also much colder....I dare say we could be trending in the right directions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Exciting news for CAD areas of NC/SC/GA: this run of the Euro is very close to major ZR/IP! Verbatim it even gives some ZR/IP to NC/SC CAD areas! But even outside of there, it has a warm bias of a few degrees. By the way, how often will you see a slower moving CAD high? This run shows the importance of having a CAD high in the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Euro is laying down some really heavy preicp in N GA with the deformation band. 850s seem to indicate that there might enough dynamic cooling for some of this to fall as heavy, wet snow (Is that believable?). EDIT: Surface temperatures are like 40 there, though, so maybe not. Looks like the mountains might do alright on this run. The surface low track is a little more inland than I'd like for the Piedmont. Looks like the HP slides off the coast and 850s skyrocket closer to 5C as the storm moves to the north. I'll still say this is a positive shift (and hopefully a trend), although the verbatim solution sucks. The Euro ENS were awesome at 12z, so they will be interesting in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Euro is laying down some really heavy preicp in N GA with the deformation band. 850s seem to indicate that there might enough dynamic cooling for some of this to fall as heavy, wet snow. Looks like the mountains might do alright on this run. The surface low track is a little more inland than I'd like for the Piedmont. Man, trends towards the CMC ? That is a huge change from 12z to 00z for the Euro, just like last night! We may have something here. The big storm off the E coast maybe slows everything down and let the cold air dig!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Man, trends towards the CMC ? That is a huge change from 12z to 00z for the Euro, just like last night! We may have something here. The big storm off the E coast maybe slows everything down and let the cold air dig!? Mack, The 0Z Euro clown actually gives you 0.20" of wintry QPF, which looks like ZR/IP verbatim! Up to 1/2" of wintry qpf W NC verbatim! And that's with warm bias! GA shut out by .10"+ clown but that's partially due to warm bias at two meters. I think N GA gets some decent IP/ZR, too, on this run (again not verbatim) and what could be the first sig. March ZR/IP for many areas of N GA since 1971! Edit: The 2/12/14 CAD event was 4-5 degrees too warm for a number of Euro runs at ATL a number of days in advance per saved maps/analysis I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I guess the euro ensembles will be interesting , but will have to check on that in the morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hm. On hi-res maps.. I don't even see the 32F line into GA/SC for ice.... but the "snowfall" maps have a bit in the Upstate.... not sure if that'd be sleet or snow.. but it's definitely not ice per surface. edit... on the lower res GGEM maps..matches up a bit with the sleet look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GSP has a mention of (30%)snow for the mtns. next wednesday nite and thursday with us getting to around the 5 day period maybe this will turn into a nice winter storm for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looking at the pacific water vapor loop it appears overnight that "winter storm Titan" has really gotten its act together and shed a piece of energy to the north. Is that what could potentially be our cold air killer? Any piece of energy that is to our north when our gulf low comes in should steal our cold air and not allow the high pressure to funnel it in. This could be what the models are struggling with. Does that piece of energy shear out? Does it develop into another decent low pressure? Or does it continue north way up into Canada? I think we will continue to see a variety of solutions until there is consensus on what that piece of energy to the north does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro and it's ensembles are to slow with the 3/6-7 event, we need it to be quicker. Hopefully it speeds up. The CMC ENS mean look great, but it's 12 hours quicker than the Euro, atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well tomorrow ZR event in the CAD favored areas of NC/VA certainly looks like it will produce. If we could get a snowstorm to produce before the second week of March would be a good way to wrap up this year. Imo looks wetter and better organized than recent model runs. If the trends of the recent runs are to be believed it should strengthen some more by the time it gets to and starts falling apart over the SE. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southplains_loop.php Now the question remains. Nam type solution or gfs type solution? Nam over the last couple days certainly colder for snow to start and more snow. GFS on the other hand warms the mid levels too quick leading to solely zr. I'd say blend is most logical... snow to zr. Either way... tomorrow is going bust temp wise with insitu cad dominating the day tomorrow with clouds and mist following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro and it's ensembles are to slow with the 3/6-7 event, we need it to be quicker. Hopefully it speeds up. The CMC ENS mean look great, but it's 12 hours quicker than the Euro, atleast. One would think that the Euro bias of holding back energy too much would be in play here, and that the reality might have the system coming in faster. Great track. Let's get the cold air to lock in with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 One would think that the Euro bias of holding back energy too much would be in play here, and that the reality might have the system coming in faster. Great track. Let's get the cold air to lock in with it! The 12z run of the CMC will also have this "potential" event starting within 6 days which we are starting to get into the skill zone, have a feeling the models will be a train wreck today though. Good news is Spring finally starts here next Friday/Saturday. The Euro ENS wasn't bad, just so slow with the storm that it's still off the NC coast on 3/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well, the system late week next week certainly is interesting. If you believe the high pressure showing up on the Canadian and the Euro, we certainly have a chance at a winter storm, but it sure is hard to have a lot of faith in it at this point. There have been many more runs (if you count all of the models that we look at) than not giving rain instead of snow/ice, due to the lack of cold air. My confidence in a storm, even a storm taking a favorable track, is good. However, my confidence in the cold being there is very low. This is a very low probability event at this point. I'd like to see the GFS come onboard or at least show a cold solution at some point. Below is the disasterous 0Z GFS. In the upper left, at 500mb, you see absolutely zero confluence over the NE, and thus HP is too far north and out to sea. Warm. In the upper right, you see the surface map, showing HP out to sea, giving no cold air transport into the region, even though the system takes a fairly favorable track along/off the coast. In the lower left, you can see a decent 700 RH prog, indicating plenty of moisture for precipitation. There might be a dry slot somewhere over eastern/southeastern NC. In the lower right, you see a decent amount of warm precipitation falling with the 850 freezing line way up over New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On another note, the CFS is even more adamant today than yesterday (and yesterday was pretty impressive) that March is going to be below normal! I don't give the map much worth, but I do think there is at least some value in the trends, and in this case, the trends have been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 starting to look pretty good for next wednesday night and thursday plus we're around the five day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well, the system late week next week certainly is interesting. If you believe the high pressure showing up on the Canadian and the Euro, we certainly have a chance at a winter storm, but it sure is hard to have a lot of faith in it at this point. There have been many more runs (if you count all of the models that we look at) than not giving rain instead of snow/ice, due to the lack of cold air. My confidence in a storm, even a storm taking a favorable track, is good. However, my confidence in the cold being there is very low. This is a very low probability event at this point. I'd like to see the GFS come onboard or at least show a cold solution at some point. Below is the disasterous 0Z GFS. In the upper left, at 500mb, you see absolutely zero confluence over the NE, and thus HP is too far north and out to sea. Warm. In the upper right, you see the surface map, showing HP out to sea, giving no cold air transport into the region, even though the system takes a fairly favorable track along/off the coast. In the lower left, you can see a decent 700 RH prog, indicating plenty of moisture for precipitation. There might be a dry slot somewhere over eastern/southeastern NC. In the lower right, you see a decent amount of warm precipitation falling with the 850 freezing line way up over New York. LOL, that will be today's model runs! Maybe today will be the dagger to winter, finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 On another note, the CFS is even more adamant today than yesterday (and yesterday was pretty impressive) that March is going to be below normal! I don't give the map much worth, but I do think there is at least some value in the trends, and in this case, the trends have been good. 3 out of 4 CFSv2 ensemble packages have big snowstorms (10-12") in Central to Western NC, Upstate/SW SC, top half of GA for March 02-07 obviously it's sniffing out the later end of that range. Strong signal on the CFSv2 though, last time it did this, it verified (with a big system not widespread 12" amounts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Early 12Z GFS maps suggest to me it will be a good bit colder with maybe a good CAD high as we head toward the crucial 3/6-7 period. Liking the changes right now at hour 96 regardless. More western ridging!! Bigger CAD high already setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 27 eps members showing winter for kcae from 00z run. slowly ticking up... what i notice most is instead of all being pretty light.. there are some big ones showing up now instead of the majority being trace amounts... probably 14 or so 2 inches+ (if it were snow of course... wont be) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 27 eps members showing winter for kcae from 00z run. slowly ticking up... 12Z GFS high now 1040+ hour 120!!!!! I'm liking this a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Early 12Z GFS maps suggest to me it will be a good bit colder with maybe a good CAD high as we head toward the crucial 3/6-7 period. Liking the changes right now at hour 96 regardless. More western ridging!! Bigger CAD high already setting up. Agreed, gulf low going at 114, 1040+HP starting to retreat though, but much better than 0z run. Didn't look at 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Agreed, gulf low going at 114, 1040+HP starting to retreat though, but much better than 0z run. Didn't look at 6z GFS. It is all about trends. And a 1040+ mb high is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not a bad look at day 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It is all about trends. And a 1040+ mb high is awesome! If we think about it.. I see on the EPS members for KCAE.. it shows the heavy precip came down around 3/7-3/8... maybe over night? No real time stamps. Anyway, we are 7 days away if that's right.. and it's definitely a good thing to see the Euro EPS start to get stronger with it. We both know just what the EPS was capable of back in Early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.