Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 How do the ensembles look through the end? Does the cold hint at returning or is it Spring torch from after the event on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 How do the ensembles look through the end? Does the cold hint at returning or is it Spring torch from after the event on? It goes from slightly below normal temps at day 10, to near normal at day 13, to slightly above at day 15 (going by 850 anomalies). Not as much of a +PNA look this run. After day 10, it looks more like an Aleutian Low / Alaska Low combined, with below normal heights maintaining in Davis Strait. Slightly below normal heights in the east transitioning to near normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It goes from slightly below normal temps at day 10, to near normal at day 13, to slightly above at day 15 (going by 850 anomalies). Not as much of a +PNA look this run. After day 10, it looks more like an Aleutian Low / Alaska Low combined, with below normal heights maintaining in Davis Strait. Slightly below normal heights in the east transitioning to near normal Good deal, thanks. Based on that, it doesn't raise my confidence of any more winter weather after next week. I'm sure the LR progs will change. But at this time, it appears to be in stark contrast with what the CFS is seeing for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Climo starts to really work against most of us after the first week of March, too. IMO, the first week of March is a climo-favored period for wintry weather (maybe more so in MBY than in areas further south and east, but still), but after that you have to start living on a prayer if you want anything. It is certainly possible, but unlikely. Im looking at 3/6 like it's our last chance and that's why I'm all-in. I can only think of five major storms to impact NC (outside the mountains) after the first week of March: March 1974 (?), March 1981, March 1983, March 1984, and March 1993. Of course, 1960 delivered until late in the month, too, IIRC. 1981 was mostly confined to the western Piedmont more so in the mountains, as was March 1983. 1974 (I might have the year wrong) and 1984 were widespread into SC and GA. Apparently, areas of the northern NC Piedmont got an inch or so in mid-March 2005, but I didn't live here from 2004-2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 18Z GFS has nothing in regards to precip for Saturday morning but has an impressive CAD signature nonetheless.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Climo starts to really work against most of us after the first week of March, too. IMO, the first week of March is a climo-favored period for wintry weather (maybe more so in MBY than in areas further south and east, but still), but after that you have to start living on a prayer if you want anything. It is certainly possible, but unlikely. Im looking at 3/6 like it's our last chance and that's why I'm all-in. I can only think of four major storms to impact NC (outside the mountains): March 1974 (?), March 1981, March 1983, and March 1993. Of course, 1960 delivered until late in the month, too, IIRC. 1981 was mostly confined to the western Piedmont more so in the mountains, as was March 1983. 1974 (I might have the year wrong) and 1983 were widespread into SC and GA. Apparently, areas of the northern NC Piedmont got an inch or so in mid-March 2005, but I didn't live here from 2004-2007. The WB members are really good…I don't believe them for a second though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Who needs precip when you got a good cad? Just kidding. I'm all in for the storm later next week! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 For GSO on the Euro ENS members, I am counting at least half with 3"+ and there are several big dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Climo starts to really work against most of us after the first week of March, too. IMO, the first week of March is a climo-favored period for wintry weather (maybe more so in MBY than in areas further south and east, but still), but after that you have to start living on a prayer if you want anything. It is certainly possible, but unlikely. Im looking at 3/6 like it's our last chance and that's why I'm all-in. I can only think of four major storms to impact NC (outside the mountains): March 1974 (?), March 1981, March 1983, and March 1993. Of course, 1960 delivered until late in the month, too, IIRC. 1981 was mostly confined to the western Piedmont more so in the mountains, as was March 1983. 1974 (I might have the year wrong) and 1983 were widespread into SC and GA. Apparently, areas of the northern NC Piedmont got an inch or so in mid-March 2005, but I didn't live here from 2004-2007. March 25, 1971 was major ZR ATL and major SN NE GA 12Z EPS: similar to 0Z EPS but about a degree colder at 850 at ATL (+3 C, indicative of ZR/IP threat) and much colder than Euro, which is again a warm outlier; Per clown, wintry qpf similar to 0Z EPS: 0.25" ATL, 0.28" AHN, 0.18" MCN, 0.23" CAE, 0.30" CLT and GSO, 0.25" RDU. Total qpf in CAD regions heavier with 1" vs 0.75" 0Z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Just looked at the Euro and CMC ENS. Euro ENS looks much better to me than the CMC ENS. That being said I still have a nagging suspicion models showing a winter storm are out to lunch and the Euro OP is probably correct with it's warmer solution. Just a hunch and nothing really scientific to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Just looked at the Euro and CMC ENS. Euro ENS looks much better to me than the CMC ENS. That being said I still have a nagging suspicion models showing a winter storm are out to lunch and the Euro OP is probably correct with it's warmer solution. Just a hunch and nothing really scientific to back it up. Agreed, ENS are nice but to not have a single Op run showing this should be a huge cause for concern. The Euro Op isn't even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NavGEM is an interesting solution for the 3/3-4 event, the SS energy gets detached and comes in a day later after the cold front swings through, that's snow for everyone CLT to FAY and north (95 and points west). Edit: Probably should have posted this in the banter as this won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 lol...we are up to 21 members showing some snow for KMCN the ens mean is about 1.5" I honestly feel like this is all rain for just about everyone..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 5" on the mean for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro ensemble mean of 6" for KAVL Boone- 7" Charlotte- 5" GSO- 6" RDU- 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 lol...we are up to 21 members showing some snow for KMCN the ens mean is about 1.5" I honestly feel like this is all rain for just about everyone..... Delta, I'm confident that is mainly 0.15" of .ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Delta, I'm confident that is mainly 0.15" of .ZR. oh, I fully agree! There is NO way thats snow. Some members are pretty stout tho...(again should be ZR, as you said) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 30+ members for Wintry weather in KCAE now. I believe this is the highest it's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like the GFS will have a storm but, looks WARM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 00z Canadian is a historic crush job from roughly I-85 and on to the west. There's some taint, but there's so much precipitation that it's an absolutely hammerage. The clown map (which tends to be fairly accurate with the GGEM, IIRC) has an area of 20"+ over Winston-Salem and to the south. GSO gets around 16". The deformation band is absolutely ridiculous. Even Raleigh gets a decent front-end thump before changing over to IP/ZR and probably RN at the end. I wouldn't make much of it with this being 6-7 days out, but it's nice model porn! It was a lot difference than the torching 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 00z is a historic crush job from roughly I-85 and on to the west. There's some taint, but there's so much precipitation that it's an absolutely hammerage. The clown map (which tends to be fairly accurate with the GGEM, IIRC) has an area of 20"+ over Winston-Salem and to the south. GSO gets around 16". The deformation band is absolutely ridiculous. Even Raleigh gets a decent front-end thump before changing over to IP/ZR and probably RN at the end. I wouldn't make much of it with this being 6-7 days out, but it's nice model porn! It was a lot difference than the torching 00z GFS. Which, or should I say witch, model, Hogwart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GSO/CLT and foothills get crushed. 4"+ QPF for CLT to GSO RDU gets dry slotted with the heavy stuff, little bit of snow little bit of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 any early maps James? from the GMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 edit...That deform band starts in Mid GA and works its way up to mid SC and upstate and into w and C NC.....Thats one helluva deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Which, or should I say witch, model, Hogwart? Oops, that was the 00z Canadian. edit...That deform band starts in Mid GA and works its way up to mid SC and upstate and into w and C NC.....Thats one helluva deform band. Yeah, it's nuts. Absolutely crazy. It's probably way off the mark, but still. Looks like CLT is right on the line, verbatim. The western suburbs get crushed while the eastern suburbs get little. We'll see what the Doctor has to say in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Oops, that was the 00z Canadian. Yeah, it's nuts. Absolutely crazy. It's probably way off the mark, but still. Looks like CLT is right on the line, verbatim. The western suburbs get crushed while the eastern suburbs get little. We'll see what the Doctor has to say in a little bit. Gastonia special, FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 King Alarm went off: 0Z Euro: looks much better! Big baby steps at least with much colder NE US/much more CAD and colder, stronger high NE as of hour 156 vs. 12Z Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Tonight's Euro is definitely going to be colder. We'll see if it's enough. Nice 1042 mb HP in southern Ontario at hr 132 that wasn't there on the 12z run. EDIT: Actually, the 12z Euro had a 1037 HP at the same time way up in northern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Doc has it, and I feel like the storm is legit....but again, NADA on the cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 00z Euro has a big 'ole fish storm in the Atlantic (it actually scrapes Cape Cod) as our storm is taking shape in the Gulf at hr 156. This feature was displaced about 500+ miles SE and was much weaker at 12z. Quite a change. Looks like this run probably isn't going to cut it, but it's a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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