superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Nice closed off ULL on the 12z Euro. Too bad it's about a million degrees. Let's hope some of the modelling is shifting the HP out to sea too quickly, but I'm not feeling too optimistic at the moment. I'm still all-in because it's March, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Nice closed off ULL on the 12z Euro. Too bad it's about a million degrees. Let's hope some of the modelling is shifting the HP out to sea too quickly, but I'm not feeling too optimistic at the moment. It's a text book SLP track for a winter storm for us, it's just in the 60's, it might be a little warm but not 30F degrees to warm, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 EURO is so warm because it misses the phase with the northern branch, so its basically just a STJ ULL....So far out, don't worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Also not buying the 3/3 event being that far south, almost skunks Boston, you know that's happening, give the MA another 12" winter event, so maybe it will happen, they just stumble into snow. It does agree with the south trend on the latest CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If I lived North and West of I-85 I would feel pretty good about getting some sort of Wintry Weather between now and March 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm hugging the 00z Euro and the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm hugging the 00z Euro and the 12z GGEM. LOL, I am chucking, no way we see a winter storm on March 6/7th, although Blue_Ridges comment above might be a good way to go. RDU isn't going to get snow next week, western NC maybe, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Also for the 3/3 event it has us dropping from 60F to 30F in 6 hours, I guess we can look forward to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Also for the 3/3 event it has us dropping from 60F to 30F in 6 hours, I guess we can look forward to that Thats like 5 degrees an hour? Some crazy CAA if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not sure I buy the evolution of the March 6/7 storm on the 12z Euro for parts of the Carolinas. The temps at 850 look suspect to me when going from hour 168 to 192. If you take a 1004 low near New Orleans with 0 to 2 surrounding it, and then strengthen it to 991 24 hours later over Myrtle Beach, I don't think the 850s would be +2 to +4 on its northwestern flank. Verbatim it shows rain, but if it takes that track and same level of deepening, I think you are looking at a snowstorm for the western Carolinas. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not sure I buy the evolution of the March 6/7 storm on the 12z Euro for parts of the Carolinas. The temps at 850 look suspect to me when going from hour 168 to 192. If you take a 1004 low near New Orleans with 0 to 2 surrounding it, and then strengthen it to 991 24 hours later over Myrtle Beach, I don't think the 850s would be +2 to +4 on its northwestern flank. Verbatim it shows rain, but if it takes that track and same level of deepening, I think you are looking at a snowstorm for the western Carolinas. JMOI agree, elevation ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 WPC Disco from 11:30AM LATER...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WRN US SEEMS A COMMON GUIDANCETREND INTO DAYS 6/7 NEXT WED/THU AND DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES ITAGAIN SEEMS THAT THE BULK OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY ISEVIDENT ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL US. IN THIS SCENARIO...PREFER ASOLUTION UPWARDS TO A 50-50 BLEND OF THE MORE SUPRESSED 00 UTCNAEFS MEAN AND LESS SUPPRESSED ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHOSE SOLUTIONMAY HAVE MORE CREDANCE THAN AT EARLIER TIME SCALES GIVEN EXPECTEDFLOW AMPLIFICATION BY THEN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN US. THE NETSOLUTION ALLOWS DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER POTENTIALLY IMPORTANTWINTER LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WHOSE SUBSEQUENT NEWD TRACKPUTS THE SRN/SERN THEN ERN US AGAIN UNDER A WIDESPREADOVERRUNNING WINTER STORM THREAT IN ABOUT A WEEK. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SURFACE SYSTEM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY AND MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS POINT INTO DAY 7/NEXT THU IS MORE SUPPRESSED IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SYSTEM DESPITE SOME FLOW AMPLIFICATION ALOFT. EVEN SO... OVERRUNNING PCPN CONSIDERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD PRETTY FAR NORTH OVER/INTO THE AMBIENT SRN/ERN US COLD LEAD AIRMASS. Well that right there sounds pretty good to me. Verbatim WPC just said "right now" it looks like the SE will be dealing with a widespread winter storm. I'll take that and run. I like the fact that they expect western amplification of the flow, rather than the more zonal looks we've seen. 12Z EURO just can't be right. I'm expecting a bit too warm, but not a spring hurricane. I bet the EURO ENS are still pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro ENS is actually nice setup day 7, nice SLP in gulf, over-running for all of NC from I-95 and points west, but then SLP just crawls up the coast and by 192 the 850/2m is setup right through RDU down to CLT, typical March climo. We need this thing to start day 6.5 and end by day 7.5, day 8 the cold is definitely retreating. The ENS mean has the SLP still giving precip to a lot of NC by hour 204, so 36+ hours, need it quicker. Which is interesting, the MJO is modeled to be very close to phase 1 by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 A perfect setup on the euro if there was some cold air. O U C H!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Also, Euro ENS mean has the SLP getting going in the gulf day 6, so starting to get in the window of believability, and plenty cold day 6-7.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So, the Euro ENS hammers I-85 and into the mountains with snow, then? I would check myself, but I'm not at home. I will hug that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro ENS is actually nice setup day 7, nice SLP in gulf, over-running for all of NC from I-95 and points west, but then SLP just crawls up the coast and by 192 the 850/2m is setup right through RDU down to CLT, typical March climo. We need this thing to start day 6.5 and end by day 7.5, day 8 the cold is definitely retreating. The ENS mean has the SLP still giving precip to a lot of NC by hour 204, so 36+ hours, need it quicker. Which is interesting, the MJO is modeled to be very close to phase 1 by then. Right on que!! Nice to hear ENS is still nice. That's the guidance to watch, IMO. Now it's time for Larry to come by and start honking on specifics and how different the OP is from the ENS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Right on que!! Nice to hear ENS is still nice. That's the guidance to watch, IMO. Now it's time for Larry to come by and start honking on specifics and how different the OP is from the ENS!! Well, we have seen it before this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So, the Euro ENS hammers I-85 and into the mountains with snow, then? I would check myself, but I'm not at home. I will hug that. Euro ENS mean has south of RDU 2-4", RDU in 4-6", with INT/GSO and NW in 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro ENS mean has south of RDU 2-4", RDU in 4-6", with INT/GSO and NW in 6-8" Is this an improvement over the 0z run? I'm wondering how many members will show the storm compared to last night also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Is this an improvement over the 0z run? Yes, much better, starts earlier. Also, it matches the CMC ENS, which are ridiculously good for an ensemble mean day 7-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Compared to 00z, Euro Ensemble is a bit more suppressed, but deeper with the wave. Sfc low takes pretty much the exact same track from NE gulf across Daytona Beach, then a bit off the SE coast. 850 low takes deep south track, just inland of the gulf and Carolina coasts. 850 temps look similar to last run with GSP-CLT-RDU corridor straddling the fence, and AVL, HKY, and GSO staying below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yes, much better, starts earlier. Also, it matches the CMC ENS, which are ridiculously good for an ensemble mean day 7-8. Compared to 00z, Euro Ensemble is a bit more suppressed, but deeper with the wave. Sfc low takes pretty much the exact same track from NE gulf across Daytona Beach, then a bit off the SE coast. 850 low takes deep south track, just inland of the gulf and Carolina coasts. 850 temps look similar to last run with GSP-CLT-RDU corridor straddling the fence, and AVL, HKY, and GSO staying below 0. Thanks fellas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Sfc low is deeper on this run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Compared to 00z, Euro Ensemble is a bit more suppressed, but deeper with the wave. Sfc low takes pretty much the exact same track from NE gulf across Daytona Beach, then a bit off the SE coast. 850 low takes deep south track, just inland of the gulf and Carolina coasts. 850 temps look similar to last run with GSP-CLT-RDU corridor straddling the fence, and AVL, HKY, and GSO staying below 0. Yep, it's riding 95 at 168-180, warms and straddles RDU/CLT/GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Sfc low is deeper on this run as well Be nice if this was day 5 ENS mean and day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Compared to 00z, Euro Ensemble is a bit more suppressed, but deeper with the wave. Sfc low takes pretty much the exact same track from NE gulf across Daytona Beach, then a bit off the SE coast. 850 low takes deep south track, just inland of the gulf and Carolina coasts. 850 temps look similar to last run with GSP-CLT-RDU corridor straddling the fence, and AVL, HKY, and GSO staying below 0. Thanks that's a great set up. EURO ENS and CMC ENS on board, I'm liking where we stand right now. Just need to see the operationals come on board tomorrow. Is the baffin ridge block/ridging evident on the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Thanks that's a great set up. EURO ENS and CMC ENS on board, I'm liking where we stand right now. Just need to see the operationals come on board tomorrow. Is the baffin ridge block/ridging evident on the ensembles? Yes, very nice day 6-7 but then weakens by day 8. Grit - correct me if I am wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Thank you, guys. Hopefully the operationals are out to lunch. The GGEM and Euro ENS being in agreement is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yes, very nice day 6-7 but then weakens by day 8. Thanks Pack....I think you're right, this is the SE's last stand. Day 8 and it's probably spring city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.