superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Good to hear last night's disastrous torching GGEM run was a blip. Last night's run was delayed until 3/7 and we had no cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That image looks really good, Pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Also, the GFS is folding to the Euro with respect to the 3/3 storm, at this point at least, the Euro got dialed into this storm right at day 6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Good to hear last night's disastrous torching GGEM run was a blip. Last night's run was delayed until 3/7 and we had no cold air. The HP is retreating north on the CMC which isn't good, so not sure if it's rain/ice/snow yet, but the look is better, we need this start 3/6 or else. Be funny if this started later and we had a nice tracking coastal that gave us rain only to give MA/NE another 6-10" snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 WxSouth Keeping close eye on Southeast next Thurs/Fri for possible cutoff low. EURO has it, GFS leaning that way. Speed,split of 2 streams crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Good to hear last night's disastrous torching GGEM run was a blip. Last night's run was delayed until 3/7 and we had no cold air. Also the CMC ENS are really perfect, but being that it's day 8 sucks, be nice if this was within day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not sure why this is not colder, 540 line on the NC/VA border, it does drop south after this though, but this a perfect setup day 7. Edit: HP is a little north of what we want, and it does retreat north, better than sliding east I guess like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yeah, if you take the 850 mb line verbatim, it's mostly snow from around maybe Burlington on to the west (maybe a little rain at the start). The precip field is lacking west of GSO, though. It sure beats last night's run where the 850 line never got south of Charlottesville, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not sure why this is not colder, 540 line on the NC/VA border, it does drop south after this though, but this a perfect setup day 7. Edit: HP is a little north of what we want, and it does retreat north, better than sliding east I guess like the GFS. I was just looking at the cmc maps on sv trying to figure out why it's not colder. Like you mentioned the hp is retreating north but it's not a weak hp. A 1040 hp at hr 174 should be colder imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yeah, if you take the 850 mb line verbatim, it's mostly snow from around maybe Burlington on to the west (maybe a little rain at the start). The precip field is lacking west of GSO, though. It sure beats last night's run where the 850 line never got south of Charlottesville, though. The GEFS is nice, holds the HP in place longer, still 12+ hours slower than the CMC/Euro but has the SLP signal day 7-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I was just looking at the cmc maps on sv trying to figure out why it's not colder. Like you mentioned the hp is retreating north but it's not a weak hp. A 1040 hp at hr 174 should be colder imo. Now I see why it's not as cold, it has a low to our north, which does get out of the way eventually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's hard to imagine us getting a winter storm with this setup, this is day 6, this doesn't scream winter storm for me at all for day 7-8.... I think that map shows well another baffin island block modeled, which Robert shows correlates very well to coastal SE lows. The ridging there is what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think that map shows well another baffin island block modeled, which Robert shows correlates very well to coastal SE lows. The ridging there is what we want to see. Good point, the higher heights everywhere else wasn't good, but that is one plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I was just looking at the cmc maps on sv trying to figure out why it's not colder. Like you mentioned the hp is retreating north but it's not a weak hp. A 1040 hp at hr 174 should be colder imo. I think the key is that the high isn't damming and, therefore, the low level cold air from the high doesn't really get down into the SE. Note the lack of a wedge signature. The positioning of everything in relation to each other won't allow the damming. Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think the key is that the high isn't damming and, therefore, the low level cold air from the high doesn't really get down into the SE. Note the lack of a wedge signature. The positioning of everything in relation to each other won't allow the damming. Opinions? Well the CMC is all rain for everyone east of 85, let's see what the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well the CMC is all rain for everyone east of 85, let's see what the Euro shows. I-85 is about 1/4 mile south of me, will that affect my chances of seeing rain?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I-85 is about 1/4 mile south of me, will that affect my chances of seeing rain?? LOL, every mile counts in March :-) I think GSO west usually does better in March, will see. The 12z GEFS members have 4 or 5 nice hits for NC, not bad out of 11 members. Have a feeling Euro is going to come up with a miss at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 WPC Disco from 11:30AM LATER...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WRN US SEEMS A COMMON GUIDANCETREND INTO DAYS 6/7 NEXT WED/THU AND DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES ITAGAIN SEEMS THAT THE BULK OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY ISEVIDENT ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL US. IN THIS SCENARIO...PREFER ASOLUTION UPWARDS TO A 50-50 BLEND OF THE MORE SUPRESSED 00 UTCNAEFS MEAN AND LESS SUPPRESSED ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHOSE SOLUTIONMAY HAVE MORE CREDANCE THAN AT EARLIER TIME SCALES GIVEN EXPECTEDFLOW AMPLIFICATION BY THEN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN US. THE NETSOLUTION ALLOWS DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER POTENTIALLY IMPORTANTWINTER LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WHOSE SUBSEQUENT NEWD TRACKPUTS THE SRN/SERN THEN ERN US AGAIN UNDER A WIDESPREADOVERRUNNING WINTER STORM THREAT IN ABOUT A WEEK. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SURFACE SYSTEM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY AND MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS POINT INTO DAY 7/NEXT THU IS MORE SUPPRESSED IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SYSTEM DESPITE SOME FLOW AMPLIFICATION ALOFT. EVEN SO... OVERRUNNING PCPN CONSIDERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD PRETTY FAR NORTH OVER/INTO THE AMBIENT SRN/ERN US COLD LEAD AIRMASS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 2 of the GEFS members give GSP to CAE 20"+…. Probably should have posted this in the banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think the key is that the high isn't damming and, therefore, the low level cold air from the high doesn't really get down into the SE. Note the lack of a wedge signature. The positioning of everything in relation to each other won't allow the damming. Opinions? I believe the issue on this model is the energy between the high over the Lakes and the SE, which is disrupting the transport of cold air toward our area. Still, not a bad solution at all at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Looks like Euro and CMC have come south for the Monday event. It wouldn't take much more of a south trend to put some of us in the game. Edit- it puts some of NC in the game. This is the Monday system. Looks like what the GFS was showing on the 12z run yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Looks like Euro and CMC have come south for the Monday event. It wouldn't take much more of a south trend to put some of us in the game. Gives some wraparound snow/sleet for NC I-40 north, NE coastal NC does well. That was a big shift from the Euro, might be a burp run. I am sure the NE weenies are starting to panic, LGA/PHL do very well with that run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 12Z Euro isn't going to work for 3/6-7 as there's no damming high in position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 As expected you can tell the Euro is going to be a big miss day 7 for the 3/6 event. It's still an event, probably a warm rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 12Z Euro isn't going to work for 3/6-7 as there's no damming high in position. Yep, CMC had the same thing, good this will be a quick death to this storm. Now bring on spring after this hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Too bad there isn't any cold. Nice system in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yep, CMC had the same thing, good this will be a quick death to this storm. Now bring on spring after this hopefully. Hopefully, the Euro is going to turn out to be an outlier of its EPS members like the two runs of yesterday! No damming high, no winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Too bad there isn't any cold. Nice system in the gulf. The whole US is warm, the 850 line is almost in Canada in day 7, just crazy quick end to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hopefully, the Euro is going to turn out to be an outlier of its EPS members like the two runs of yesterday! No damming high, no winter storm. Its a nice looking SLP but it's amazing how quickly the cold/PV retreated north, it's raining almost to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Also not buying the 3/3 event being that far south, almost skunks Boston, you know that's happening, give the MA another 12" winter event, so maybe it will happen, they just stumble into snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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