Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion III

[GaWx]

Make mine sleet, Larry.  No more zr for me..ever!  I've gotten some good rains this week, 2 inches, and some nice cold rain will nicely do in place of the zr.  Let others, that want it, like NeGa, have my portion   T

 

Tony,

 Don't forget that I'm just a friendly messenger. I can't make it do anything. However, if we can get a strong enough CAD from

that record breaking cold high in the NE, I suppose I can get you a nice helping of sleet to make it a great winter for you. Just think +1 to +3 850's, a strong wedge, a Miller low, and sig. precip. That's the recipe you need to avoid getting much, if any, ZR.

We need to keep the +3 to +6 850 nonsense away from you.

 

 By the way, I just did some research of the ESRL reanalysis because I was surprised you mainly got ZR and so little sleet on 2/12. Keep in mind that the Euro and general model consensus had you mainly in the +2 to +2.5 range for much of 2/12's 850's. So, I was expecting you to get a really nice sleet and was going to call this storm the Tony storm. Well, as it turns out, ESRL says you were largely +3 to +5.5 at 850 until late in the day!! That's prime ZR territory, not sleet. So, assuming ESRL is accurate, that would explain that mystery of so much more ZR than IP in especially south ATL on 2/12 vs. my expectations: the Euro and model consensus were too cold at 850 by 1-3 C! Keep in mind that even Dunwoody was getting ZR for a couple of hours to my surprise before changing to sleet. Well, it turns out that way up at Dunwoody it started out at +4 C at 850 (ZR territory) before cooling to the prime sleet range of +2 ~midday. So, the second good round of steady precip. was nearly pure sleet, which jibes with ESRL.

[DaculaWeather]

Same way it happened over here on the NE side in Gwinnett. 

[dsaur]

Tony,

 Don't forget that I'm just a friendly messenger. I can't make it do anything. However, if we can get a strong enough CAD from

that record breaking cold high in the NE, I suppose I can get you a nice helping of sleet to make it a great winter for you. Just think +1 to +3 850's, a strong wedge, a Miller low, and sig. precip. That's the recipe you need to avoid getting much, if any, ZR.

We need to keep the +3 to +6 850 nonsense away from you.

 

 By the way, I just did some research of the ESRL reanalysis because I was surprised you mainly got ZR and so little sleet on 2/12. Keep in mind that the Euro and general model consensus had you mainly in the +2 to +2.5 range for much of 2/12's 850's. So, I was expecting you to get a really nice sleet and was going to call this storm the Tony storm. Well, as it turns out, ESRL says you were largely +3 to +5.5 at 850 until late in the day!! That's prime ZR territory, not sleet. So, assuming ESRL is accurate, that would explain that mystery of so much more ZR than IP in especially south ATL on 2/12 vs. my expectations: the Euro and model consensus were too cold at 850 by 1-3 C! Keep in mind that even Dunwoody was getting ZR for a couple of hours to my surprise before changing to sleet. Well, it turns out that way up at Dunwoody it started out at +4 C at 850 (ZR territory) before cooling to the prime sleet range of +2 ~midday. So, the second good round of steady precip. was nearly pure sleet, which jibes with ESRL.

 

 

Thanks, Larry!   Well, the vast bulk of my slight zr came before 8am.  The rest of the day was dry, but for spotty patches of drizzle.  It was about 3:30 when the rain started back up and the first batch was very sticky zr, but what followed was sleet, small, but sleet, and that is what continued a while to make the ground white.  Before 5pm it was nothing on the ground, and zr in the trees.  I think the dry slot saved me from much worse zr, as the cold air was slow to move in from the cad.  The snow line was just to my north with the first wave the night before, maybe LoveJoy, or lower Jonesboro, and I never saw any snow, but some grains mixed in with the light sleet in wave two.

  The snow madness storm for Atl was a bit of sleet early, and bit of snow, an inch, before midday, then dry slot again until late in the day when the front passed through and dropped an inch at the very end.  So the first storm was cold enough but lacked juice, the second storm gave me tons of rain, but was late to get cold, and when it was cold enough I got dry slotted.  So I missed the bad zr, but also the fun stuff too.  Tony

[superjames1992]

The 00z GFS has the 3/6 storm, but the storm takes just long enough to come in (actually, the storm arrives on 3/7, as a result) that the HP slides off the coast and we get screwed with a rainstorm as GL low tracks to our north.  The precipitation field looked a bit funky, too.  It's a solid SLP track, though.  The fact that it had a storm is encouraging, I suppose, as there was no storm to speak of at 18z.

 

We actually do well with moisture chasing the cold (but NOT cold chasing the moisture!), so that should work out, in reality.

 

The 00z NAM had a pretty significant ice storm for portions of NC on 3/1, as well, FWIW.  The GFS was much drier with just a glaze.

 

EDIT: The 00z Canadian also slides the HP out to sea and we get flooded with torching air temperatures as the coastal gets cranking.  Lovely.  A disastrous zonal pattern takes over the country.  It's kind of an odd solution as the surface low gets sheared out before it really gets going and never really develops except for the immediate coastal regions... not that it really matters since it's rain, anyways.  I'm going to toss it for now because I'm a weenie and wait for the Euro to kick me in the rear end in an hour.

 

Actually, the Canadian is cold enough at the surface for freezing rain on 3/7.

[GaWx]

Folks,

 Before I tell you the news, remember that I'm just a friendly messenger. I'm not in control of the weather. So, I hope you aren't armed. With that out of the way, I must tell you that it is too warm for a winter storm on 3/6-7. The good news is that we still have the Crazy Uncle as well as the Doctor to have their say. Please stay tuned to this subforum for further updates as they become available.

[mackerel_sky]

Folks,

Before I tell you the news, remember that I'm just a friendly messenger. I'm not in control of the weather. So, I hope you aren't armed. With that out of the way, I must tell you that it is too warm for a winter storm on 3/6-7. The good news is that we still have the Crazy Uncle as well as the Doctor to have their say. Please stay tuned to this subforum for further updates as they become available.

It's ok , we appreciate the info, and Euro will probably be back to a super cold solution with a winter storm! The flip flop and changes between all the models this go around is the worst of the season so far! Maybe all that cold in Canada has them confused?

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I'm aware of that. But I was not looking at the typical 850 temp mslp precip map.

If the hires is right then the mountains maybe good but the foothills into the piedmont are no bueno. A complete 360 from the operational nam.

 

 Temps alot warmer than the nam.

 

Now Hour 60 Snow for mountains liquid outside of the mountains. 

 

If I'm looking at that first map correct, those in the light blue shaded areas would be supportive of snow.  If that's the case, then that encompasses alot of the Western Foothills (Marion, Morganton, Lenoir, Rutherfordton) as well as the mountains.

[GaWx]

It's ok , we appreciate the info, and Euro will probably be back to a super cold solution with a winter storm! The flip flop and changes between all the models this go around is the worst of the season so far! Maybe all that cold in Canada has them confused?

 

Thanks, Mack. I do have some better news:

 

1) The 0Z GEFS has it quite a bit colder than the GFS (similar to how much colder is the 12Z Euro vs. the 12Z EPS) while still suggesting a Gulf storm and good CAD. This still suggests a ZR threat since the GFS is a warm outlier.

 

2) The 0Z GGEM isn't bad for all of the SE. It actually has a decent ZR for part of NC late on 3/6 with a very nice 1038 CAD high in the NE.

 

 Next up is the Good Doctor. Brick is hopefully in bed.

[superjames1992]

The Euro is coming in colder with the 3/6 storm so far.  Let's see what happens!  A 1040 mb HP in southern Ontario that wasn't there at 12z is doing some dirty work while the surface low is running along the Gulf Coast rather than up through central Alabama.

 

EDIT: Benchmark surface low track just south of Pensacola at 180 hr.  It's about to go down.  Definite CAD signature.

 

EDIT #2: CLT-GSO and on west are getting crushed with snow.  Probably some ZR/IP on the fringes of the snow line.

 

EDIT #3: "Crushed" may have been an overstatement, but the area right near the snow/mix line gets ~6" (I-85 corridor, basically) while areas further west get ~4".  The precip doesn't expand as far west as I was expecting.  The surface low track is hugging the immediate coast, which isn't particularly ideal, but given that the Euro had the surface low tracking right into central GA/SC/NC at 12z, it's a big change.

 

Looks like Richmond gets crushed with 12-18".  DT rejoices.

[GaWx]

Ladies and germs,

0Z King update: As suspected might happen based on the 12Z Euro being a warm outlier vs. its ensemble members, a very nice ZR/winter storm reintroduced for part of the SE 3/6!!!!

 

Signed,

Your friendly messenger.

 

Yes, I'll take both credit and cash for the good news.

[jacobr57]

Ladies and germs,

0Z King update: As suspected might happen based on the 12Z Euro being a warm outlier vs. its ensemble members, a very nice ZR/winter storm reintroduced for part of the SE 3/6!!!!

 

Signed,

Your friendly messenger.

 

Yes, I'll take both credit for cash for the good news.

Sorry, superjames beat you to it by 5 minutes, so he gets all of my cash.

[mackerel_sky]

Ladies and germs,

0Z King update: As suspected might happen based on the 12Z Euro being a warm outlier vs. its ensemble members, a very nice ZR/winter storm reintroduced for part of the SE 3/6!!!!

Signed,

Your friendly messenger.

Yes, I'll take both credit for cash for the good news.

Amazing flip on this run! You called it! You said today the 12z was wrong and an outlier and would be different at 00z ! I'm glad to see it coming around! I would hate to see all that super cold air in Canada go to waste!

[superjames1992]

Sorry, superjames beat you to it by 5 minutes, so he gets all of my cash.

 

LOL.  I'm not trying to compete, ha.  We all win per the Euro, especially if it signifies a further trend.  I'm always up at this time of night, so I'm always looking at the Euro.

 

One thing to note is that the Euro pretty much goes into torch mode right after the storm, so the snow won't be sticking around too long.  I guess the snowpack probably keeps it cold for a few days, though.

 

It's a nice cold storm for the areas with snow, as well, with cold air damming keeping surface temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

 

It appears to do nothing for anyone outside of NC, though.  Even upstate SC is marginally too warm.  But, the trends might tell the tale, so IF this is the start of a trend, it might get colder.

[mackerel_sky]

LOL. I'm not trying to compete, ha. We all win per the Euro, especially if it signifies a further trend.

One thing to note is that the Euro pretty much goes into torch mode right after the storm, so the snow won't be sticking around too long. I guess the snowpack probably keeps it cold for a few days, though.

It's a nice cold storm for the areas with snow, as well, with cold air damming keeping surface temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

As long as its not torch during the storm, we will be happy!

[GaWx]

Sorry, superjames beat you to it by 5 minutes, so he gets all of my cash.

 

 James and I are also called the "King Team". We don't compete. We actually work in tandem nightly to inform you, the reader, about the latest developments regarding the best model this world has ever known, The King. So, he'd give me half the cash, regardless.

 

 Speaking of The King, get a load of this clown: it suggests a whopping 1.2" wintry qpf for RDU and GSO! It has 0.4" at CLT and it even has 0.2" for Mack (GSP)! It is close to a sig. ZR for the ATL-AHN corridor based on 850's of +3 to +4 but is a little too warm verbatim per its two meters. However, its two meter temp.'s are likely too warm by several degrees due to a warm bias in these situations.

 

Edit:

 

 Folks, the 0Z EPS most definitely still has the classic Miller A (crosses over Daytona like the 12Z)/CAD/SE winter storm for 3/6-7 and it is actually a bit colder (0C 850 NC/SC border vs. far N NC on the 12Z)! The qpf is a healthy (for an EPS a week out) 0.75", which is a tad wetter than the 12Z EPS mean overall. The high is 1031, which is pretty strong for an EPS mean out 7 days. This looks like it is giving snow as a major portion of the wintry precip. to the GSO-RDU corridor. It looks like a ZR/IP mix for the main CAD areas of NC/SC/GA.

 

 Per the 0Z EPS clown: heavier wintry qpf vs. the 12Z EPS with 0.25" vs. 0.13" for ATL-AHN with 850's in the wintry +3 to +1 range, 0.15" vs. 0.1" at MCN, 0.35" vs. 0.20" for GSP, 0.2" vs. 0.1" at CAE, 0.3" vs. 0.2" at CLT, 0.25" vs. 0.2" at RDU, and 0.30" vs. 0.23" at GSO.

 These are sig. amounts for an EPS mean 7-8 days out

[Brick Tamland]

Well, the Euro led the way with the last winter storm we got after a big of flip flopping with all the models. And that one looked like it might be too warm at once, and it started trending colder. Then the other models started following in line. Could we be seeing a repeat?

[Tacoma]

 James and I are also called the "King Team". We don't compete. We actually work in tandem nightly to inform you, the reader, about the latest developments regarding the best model this world has ever known, The King. So, he'd give me half the cash, regardless.

 

 Speaking of The King, get a load of this clown: it suggests a whopping 1.2" wintry qpf for RDU and GSO! It has 0.4" at CLT and it even has 0.2" for Mack (GSP)! It is close to a sig. ZR for the ATL-AHN corridor based on 850's of +3 to +4 but is a little too warm verbatim per its two meters. However, its two meter temp.'s are likely too warm by several degrees due to a warm bias in these situations.

 

Edit:

 

 Folks, the 0Z EPS most definitely still has the classic Miller A (crosses over Daytona like the 12Z)/CAD/SE winter storm for 3/6-7 and it is actually a bit colder (0C 850 NC/SC border vs. far N NC on the 12Z)! The qpf is a healthy (for an EPS a week out) 0.75", which is a tad wetter than the 12Z EPS mean overall. The high is 1031, which is pretty strong for an EPS mean out 7 days. This looks like it is giving snow as a major portion of the wintry precip. to the GSO-RDU corridor. It looks like a ZR/IP mix for the main CAD areas of NC/SC/GA.

 

 Per the 0Z EPS clown: heavier wintry qpf vs. the 12Z EPS with 0.25" vs. 0.13" for ATL-AHN with 850's in the wintry +3 to +1 range, 0.15" vs. 0.1" at MCN, 0.35" vs. 0.20" for GSP, 0.2" vs. 0.1" at CAE, 0.3" vs. 0.2" at CLT, 0.25" vs. 0.2" at RDU, and 0.30" vs. 0.23" at GSO.

 These are sig. amounts for an EPS mean 7-8 days out

where is all the chatter since the models are looking colder and snow stormier?

[Brick Tamland]

From RAH:

 

The approach of an upper level disturbance from offshore the California coast this morning will result in a chance of light wintry precipitation over Central North Carolina late Friday night into Saturday morning. A light glaze of freezing rain, and associated thin layer of black ice mainly on bridges and overpasses, would be the primary impact.

 

[Cold Rain]

Nice to see the Euro come back around to the winter storm idea for 3/6-7-8 or whatever the exact dates are now.  Cold air still looks marginal.  But whatever.

 

The CFS continues to trend toward greater probabilities of cold for March.  I'm not sure where it's getting this idea.  The LR models, as far as I can see, don't look to support cold of this magnitude.  Maybe some of you with access to the longer range ensembles or Euro Weeklies or whatever can weigh in as to whether or not the CFS is on its own.  Anyway, for entertainment purposes only, here it is:

 

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

12Z NAM looks pretty sweet for MBY anyway....yellow DBZ appears directly overhead.

 

[griteater]

Cold Rain, day 10-15 on Euro Ensemble is +PNA / +NAO pattern...troughing in the eastern U.S...slightly below normal temperatures here.  3/6 has a good looking setup on Euro Ens with 50/50 type low, bananna high with damming, gulf low running off SE coast...but is it right?...and temps are marginal

[SnowNiner]

Cold Rain, day 10-15 on Euro Ensemble is +PNA / +NAO pattern...troughing in the eastern U.S...slightly below normal temperatures here.  3/6 has a good looking setup on Euro Ens with 50/50 type low, bananna high with damming, gulf low running off SE coast...but is it right?...and temps are marginal

 

I'm really starting to get confident that we get a big storm of some kind in this time period.  It seems like the models are more and more consistent of that.  However the temps are still suspect.   If it's like the last storm it could trend colder and colder.....or climo catches up to us (which I think is more likely) and it trends warmer.  We'll see.  Hoping for a coup here. 

[Cold Rain]

Cold Rain, day 10-15 on Euro Ensemble is +PNA / +NAO pattern...troughing in the eastern U.S...slightly below normal temperatures here.  3/6 has a good looking setup on Euro Ens with 50/50 type low, bananna high with damming, gulf low running off SE coast...but is it right?...and temps are marginal

 

Thanks Grit!  I agree that temps look marginal verbatim.  I believe they are modeled too warm.  I just posted in the banter thread, but if we get that look at game time, it will be colder than currently shown.  Thanks for the info!

[BullCityWx]

I'm starting to get interested in this shot of freezing rain on Saturday

[GaffneyPeach]

I'm starting to get interested in this shot of freezing rain on Saturday

Freezing rain on a Saturday is like having a hole in your sock. IJS

[Shawn]

I'm really starting to get confident that we get a big storm of some kind in this time period.  It seems like the models are more and more consistent of that.  However the temps are still suspect.   If it's like the last storm it could trend colder and colder.....or climo catches up to us (which I think is more likely) and it trends warmer.  We'll see.  Hoping for a coup here. 

 

In my opinion.. the Euro and the EPS are both having issues with this event.  Here in KCAE, it has bounced from 25, to 0, to 20, to 15 now to 18 members.  The operational has bounced around with a major ice down this way too.

 

Unlike the last storm where the EPS grabbed on to it and wouldn't let go.. this is quite different and hard to figure out.  The confusion is just as bad the closer we get..

 

Does anyone know what is going on to cause the models to be having such a wishy washy approach with the 3/6-8th timeframe?  The only thing I could think of is the strength and placement of the high pressure.. and timing issues of the system... which if anything.. the Euro should be over amplifying the high a bit.. and supressing a storm.... not cutting it up through GA one run and then across FL the next.. with the ens mean looking way different.

[packbacker]

It's hard to imagine us getting a winter storm with this setup, this is day 6, this doesn't scream winter storm for me at all for day 7-8....

 

[FLweather]

I'm starting to get interested in this shot of freezing rain on Saturday

 

Lol Im glad you are...I know it will probably happen but just not excited for the fact of liquid. 

 

Nam would be best case scenario really. Last few runs of GFS keep getting dryer and dryer verus the nam which shows widespread .10-.5" qpf with best chances of snow along the 85 corridor and north. 

 

The way the nam is showing things reminds me of a couple bands in the past. Along the upper level warmfront or waa snow. Where is snows huge flakes and moderate to heavy rates before being blasted by sleet. Not sure why gfs goes poof with the moisture but I'm sure if things start trending wetter it will probably bring back the front end snow threat. Right now gfs is too shallow with the moisture at 850 and 700 .

[packbacker]

You see three pieces of energy trying to phase, but the HP is sliding out to see...

 

 

[packbacker]

GFS actually wasn't bad with the coastal itself, a little to far SE and get's going a little later but was towards the Euro with that regards, just much slower.  The GGEM has a costal day 7 off the SE coast which is much better timing, if this comes in early March 6th might get lucky, if its delayed the warm air will win….