Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion III


Marion_NC_WX

Recommended Posts

Yup, rain for everyone it appears.  Seems like the right solution *or the closest one as of now*

Why's that? I don't see it cutting with the highs to the north. I thought there used to be general rule that southern branch storms will exit the east coast at approximately the same latitude that they enter on thewest coast. That would put it near SC/NC I may be dreaming that, but I seem to recall it being discussed in the past. I still like the look of pattern with plenty of cold high pressure to the north and an active southern branch. We'll see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Yup, rain for everyone it appears.  Seems like the right solution *or the closest one as of now*

 

 For the 2nd run in a row, the Euro is vastly different from yesterday's runs and it is way different from today's very cold 12Z GFS. The Euro will very likely change drastically tonight imo. Therefore, analysis of the 12Z Euro, which has nothing even close to a winter storm for the SE, isn't worthwhile imo. Nevertheless, the chances for GA/SC getting much ~3/6-8 have dropped since yesterday, when all three 12Z's had a major winter storm for parts of GA/SC/NC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 For the 2nd run in a row, the Euro is vastly different from yesterday's runs and it is way different from today's very cold 12Z GFS. The Euro will very likely change drastically tonight imo. Therefore, analysis of the 12Z Euro, which has nothing even close to a winter storm for the SE, isn't worthwhile imo. Nevertheless, the chances for GA/SC getting much ~3/6-8 have dropped since yesterday, when all three 12Z's had a major winter storm for parts of GA/SC/NC.

agreed Larry...I think all the biggies will super struggle with so much energy flying around.  I do like the storm idea, just not sure its the total winter snow/ice event yet....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 18z NAM looks consistent with the 12z NAM as it shows a shot of T-2" across portions of NC this weekend.  The GFS had this, but it was freezing rain and/or sleet.  We'll see.  The setup seems more conducive to freezing rain and sleet, but I'll root for the NAM miracle and hope it has some skill outside 48 hours for once.

 

The 12z Euro just shows a little 33-degree rain for the same timeframe.

 

EDIT: Ninja'd by Blue Ridge, haha.

 

Marginal events always work out for us and we always overperform, so I'm sure we'll get hammered.  :whistle:  :yikes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 18z NAM looks consistent with the 12z NAM as it shows a shot of T-2" across portions of NC this weekend.  The GFS had this, but it was freezing rain and/or sleet.  We'll see.  The setup seems more conducive to freezing rain and sleet, but I'll root for the NAM miracle and hope it has some skill outside 48 hours for once.

 

The 12z Euro just shows a little 33-degree rain for the same timeframe.

 

EDIT: Ninja'd by Blue Ridge, haha.

 

Marginal events always work out for us and we always overperform, so I'm sure we'll get hammered.  :whistle:  :yikes:

Looks like dew points do not rise above 30 from RDU westward. As you stated looks like a lot of central NC is above .15 to near .2 liquid. Below is the snow cover map for hour 69(not much but something):

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=26&model_init_hh=18&fhour=69&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Link to comment
Share on other sites

agreed Larry...I think all the biggies will super struggle with so much energy flying around.  I do like the storm idea, just not sure its the total winter snow/ice event yet....

 

 Well, well, well, this is quite interesting! The 12Z EPS mean at hour 192 (3/6 AM) is much colder than the 12Z Euro and actually suggests a Miller A (vs. the 0Z EPS that suggested development mainly wait til off the SE coast). The low on the 12Z EPS mean is in the N GOM some 500 miles south of the 12Z Euro, which is way up in C AL!! There is very nice CAD on the 12Z EPS from a nice 1032ish high. The 0C 850 line is way up near Baltimore on the Euro vs. way down in far N NC on the EPS! Whereas KATL's 850 on the Euro is a mild ~+10 C, it is only ~+4 C on the much colder EPS. The qpf in the main CAD areas is a very respectable ~0.75". For a place like ATL with only a +4 C 850, that could very well mean a sig. to major ZR.

 

 Looking more closely at the Euro vs. the other 50 members of the EPS at the crucial hour of 192, the Euro is almost the furthest north with the 0C 850 line of the 51 members!! The bulk of the members are in either NC or far S VA. There are even a few as far south as S GA/far N FL! The 0Z Euro vs. the 0Z EPS is similar.

 

 Bottom line: the last two Euro runs are warm outliers among each respective EPS. Also, the 12Z Euro/0Z Euro were both MUCH warmer than the 12Z GFS/0Z GFS. Therefore, there is a very good chance that the 0Z Euro tonight will come in MUCH colder and quite possibly with the winter storm for 3/6-7 back on the model. I know I'll be up. Brick had better be in bed. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RAH is trending with the GFS for next week. Also added a chance of a wintery mix for this Friday for my area.

 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT AND RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS. WHILE A SFC WIND AT OR BELOW 8KTS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING...SFC WIND SHOULD DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A ABATING WIND...TEMPS SHOULD TUMBLE WELL INTO THE 20S. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FRIDAY SUGGEST MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY 40-44 NORTH AND 45-49 DEGREES SOUTH. FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL NC LATE FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE NEEDED LIFT AND MOISTURE AS WILL UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPLIED BY A 120+ KT JET CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHERN GA (THIS PLACES CENTRAL NC IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION). PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/SLEET) AT ONSET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN AFTER DAYBREAK. PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT (LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH) SO NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AT THIS TIME. MIN TEMPS UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. SATURDAY...PRECIP EARLY SHOULD DIMINISH/EXIT THE REGION BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNT OF SUN WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MAX TEMPS. IF CLEARING IS DELAYED...MAX TEMPS COULD END UP BEING 4-5 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 50 FAR NORTH TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTH.

-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND INTO THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY. THICKNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S...ABOUT 20M ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT 35-40. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY 65-70. MONDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS WILL INCH SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. BASED ON MODEL TIMING...AMY BE ENOUGH WARMING TO SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. MAY SEE COOLER AIR INVADE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. IF TIMING IS DELAYED...MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY END UP BEING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES MORE EVIDENT THIS PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THEN STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS A SFC WAVE FORMS OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT WINTRY-TYPE PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC. ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...PUSHING THE ARCTIC FRONT WELL EAST-SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND A CHILLY HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS YIELDS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. WENT WITH THE WETTER GFS FOR MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING WINTRY PRECIP DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEPTH/DEGREE OF COLD AIR. NEEDLESS TO SAY...GOOD BET THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO MENTION WINTRY PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, I'd really like another shot at a storm, but I am just so skeptical that it's going to be cold enough.  It's good to hear the ENS is on board, CMC is on board (the ones you want on your side IMO), but I just feel like the pattern's changed from Jan/Feb.  We just aren't getting that cold anymore since our last storm.  The coldest we're getting at night is mid/upper 30s. 

 

It's one of those things where I bet we do get a nice storm but we miss it by 2 degrees and it's a nice cold rain deluge. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

RAH is trending with the GFS for next week. Also added a chance of a wintery mix for this Friday for my area.

 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

 

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT AND RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS. WHILE A SFC WIND AT OR BELOW 8KTS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING...SFC WIND SHOULD DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A ABATING WIND...TEMPS SHOULD TUMBLE WELL INTO THE 20S. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FRIDAY SUGGEST MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY 40-44 NORTH AND 45-49 DEGREES SOUTH. FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL NC LATE FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE NEEDED LIFT AND MOISTURE AS WILL UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPLIED BY A 120+ KT JET CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHERN GA (THIS PLACES CENTRAL NC IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION). PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/SLEET) AT ONSET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN AFTER DAYBREAK. PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT (LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH) SO NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AT THIS TIME. MIN TEMPS UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. SATURDAY...PRECIP EARLY SHOULD DIMINISH/EXIT THE REGION BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNT OF SUN WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MAX TEMPS. IF CLEARING IS DELAYED...MAX TEMPS COULD END UP BEING 4-5 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 50 FAR NORTH TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTH.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

 

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND INTO THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY. THICKNESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S...ABOUT 20M ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT 35-40. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY 65-70. MONDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS WILL INCH SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. BASED ON MODEL TIMING...AMY BE ENOUGH WARMING TO SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. MAY SEE COOLER AIR INVADE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. IF TIMING IS DELAYED...MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY END UP BEING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES MORE EVIDENT THIS PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THEN STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS A SFC WAVE FORMS OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT WINTRY-TYPE PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC. ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...PUSHING THE ARCTIC FRONT WELL EAST-SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND A CHILLY HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS YIELDS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. WENT WITH THE WETTER GFS FOR MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING WINTRY PRECIP DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEPTH/DEGREE OF COLD AIR. NEEDLESS TO SAY...GOOD BET THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO MENTION WINTRY PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

good old GSP not bitting on next week yet like RAH is.   go figure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

good old GSP not bitting on next week yet like RAH is.   go figure.

 

I wouldn't say they're not biting. This actually sounds pretty good to me coming from GSP. They're always conservative with storms this far out (for good reason) and to highlight it as a definite possibility is a good sign.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wouldn't say they're not biting. This actually sounds pretty good to me coming from GSP. They're always conservative with storms this far out (for good reason) and to highlight it as a definite possibility is a good sign.

well read gsp and compare to what rah above is saying.  gsp doesn't really mention a lot about the potential or possibility of snow for next week yet rah changed they're discussion due to the fact it might snow.  gsp is WAY CONSERVATIVE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

well read gsp and compare to what rah above is saying.  gsp doesn't really mention a lot about the potential or possibility of snow for next week yet rah changed they're discussion due to the fact it might snow.  gsp is WAY CONSERVATIVE.

 

Oh, oops. I skimmed the discussion post and thought GSP said the bolded phrases, not RAH. My bad!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hires nam says nam is on crack with the snow idea for 3/1 in NC.

Looks very similar to Euro and gfs. No where supportive for snow at 850. Tickering between a cold rain and zr mainly north of the 85 corridor.

 

HI-Res NAM only goes out to 60, the snow wouldn't be falling until 63-69.  But even at hour 60 the 850 line would support snow from Rutherfordton-Hickory-Mt. Airy and west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ah, well I don't know about your location but they generally get mine right. You're right about Robert. He's about the best around.

I'm in the mtns. and I know its tough.  yes I do give gsp credit because they are right lots of times that we don't give them credit for.  I guess I would like to see both rah and gsp agree on a possible snowstorm next week, and they may in a couple of days.  :whistle:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, I'd really like another shot at a storm, but I am just so skeptical that it's going to be cold enough.  It's good to hear the ENS is on board, CMC is on board (the ones you want on your side IMO), but I just feel like the pattern's changed from Jan/Feb.  We just aren't getting that cold anymore since our last storm.  The coldest we're getting at night is mid/upper 30s. 

 

It's one of those things where I bet we do get a nice storm but we miss it by 2 degrees and it's a nice cold rain deluge. 

 

SnowNiner,

 Regarding what I highlighted above in your reply, the next two airmasses being modeled are much colder up north than what they were recently experiencing and are of record breaking intensity as well as similar to the coldness of the airmass that preceded the last big storm (2/12-13) up, say, in Chicago. If we can get that 2nd high to go strongly into the NE along with a good enough CAD to really tap into the cold (assuming there actually is a 3/5-6 Gulf low), it would certainly be more than cold enough in Charlotte for a mix of wintry precip.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EURO EPS control run just dropped over a foot of snow on central and western NC for 3/6. This is assuming all snow on clown maps.

 

It takes a similar track as the Euro operational (as you would expect) and none of it is snow.  It does show a catastrophic ice storm, though, before changing over to rain.  1.5-2" QPF worth of ZR for the northern CAD regions (and quite a bit south and east, as well).  :yikes:

 

It's the control run, though, so toss it.

 

BTW, the 18z GFS has no storm on 3/6 aside from a clipper coming down from Canada that doesn't make it over the Appalachians.  It is cold, though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm in the mtns. and I know its tough.  yes I do give gsp credit because they are right lots of times that we don't give them credit for.  I guess I would like to see both rah and gsp agree on a possible snowstorm next week, and they may in a couple of days.  :whistle:

 

RAH and GSP cover 2 very different regions. I would be more suspicious if the mirrored one another. And in the case of next week, I don't see any winter weather happening apart from places in elevation for the GSP FA.

 

The cold air situation is bleak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HI-Res NAM only goes out to 60, the snow wouldn't be falling until 63-69.  But even at hour 60 the 850 line would support snow from Rutherfordton-Hickory-Mt. Airy and west.

 

I'm aware of that. But I was not looking at the typical 850 temp mslp precip map.

If the hires is right then the mountains maybe good but the foothills into the piedmont are no bueno. A complete 360 from the operational nam.

 

 Temps alot warmer than the nam.

nam-hires_namer_060_850_temp_ht.gif

 

Now Hour 60 Snow for mountains liquid outside of the mountains. 

nam-hires_namer_060_sim_reflectivity.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...