DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0640Z FRI FEB 14 2014AN UPDATE FROM THE NWS TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY...FROM - NWSTGTO - ALLSUBJECT - NWSTG COMMS OUTAGE.UPDATE 001.THE NWSTG CONFIRMED A MAJOR FIBER CUT HAS TAKENPLACE - MOST SEVERE IMPACT AT THIS TIME IS NOCONNECTIVITY FROM NCEP TO THE NWSTG - NETWORKENGINEERS ARE CONTINUING TO WORK THE PROBLEM -YOUR PATIENCE DURING THIS TIME IS APPRECIATED..NWSTGHANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Here ya go. This thread has a wealth of info for newbies. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29651-weather-references-and-newbie-information/ Thanks, there is a lot of good info there to digest. I'll be going through those links for days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Jon, I agree with you. I glanced over the EPS 00z stuff at 500mb & 850 anomaly.. and anywhere between Feb 28- First week 1/2 of March looks highly possible to suprise someone. Not quite sure I see a "big dog" type setup.. but the signals are there this far out to definitely let go of this period we are about to enter.. and actually have something to talk about in this pattern discussion for a while. You guys do notice the severe popping up on GFS for the Tornado Alley? Around hr 204 on GFS at least? 980MB Lakes low.. whew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I agree, guys. We look to warm up for a bit but then it looks like winter returns for a while. The CFS looks neutral/slightly below for March re: temps. I haven't been monitoring the trends there, but now that we got winter storm 2 out of the way, I will. The indexes look marginal, according to the CPC site, but that hasn't been a huge deal so far. I still don't see an ideal pattern shaping up yet, but the MJO looks like it might pay a visit to phases 1 and 8. It hasn't really played a big role this winter, so that may be irrelevant also. We'll see. Anyway, toward the end of the month looks like a good period to start getting interested in. Winter aint over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 There's near 100% agreement on the models that it will turn quite a bit colder in about 10 days and continue at least into early March. Euro weeklies in total agreement and they also suggest it won't be dry. This winter has been something else lol. I'm loving it. Spring can wait til spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 JMA says cold comes back after this week and well into March, JB said he may be wrong on the flip he was forecasting in March/, JMA suggest March cold and stormy!!! with trough in the east... It's did well this winter in long range. we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Fwiw, the 12Z GFS has -12 C 850's at ATL near end of month with highs on 2/28 barely above freezing. Freeze into north FL 3/1. Those who want an early spring? Ain't happening, which is perfectly fine with me. Euro weeklies agree. Long live winter! Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Fwiw, the 12Z GFS has -12 C 850's at ATL near end of month with highs on 2/28 barely above freezing. Freeze into north FL 3/1. Those who want an early spring? Ain't happening, which is perfectly fine with me. Euro weeklies agree. Long live winter! Bring it on! Is this what you are talking about? I'm also trying to find cold at the end of the month as I am not ready to say goodbye to winter just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Is this what you are talking about? I'm also trying to find cold at the end of the month as I am not ready to say goodbye to winter just yet. Yes, that's the one! -12 C 850's north ATL burbs (with highs that day only in the 30's) is to what I was referring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I never count late Feb- early March out for a surprise, although that is time to start working on the Tall Fescue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Is this what you are talking about? I'm also trying to find cold at the end of the month as I am not ready to say goodbye to winter just yet.Don't see the SE ridge around anywhere, and looks like another shot of cold waiting to head this way right behind the one on this panel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If I remember correctly March 93 had +NAO, -PNA, +AO with cross polar flow. Haven't we had that setup a couple times already this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If I remember correctly March 93 had +NAO, -PNA, +AO with cross polar flow. Haven't we had that setup a couple times already this winter? March 93 had a major west coast ridge and blocking. The season as a whole was a dumpster fire but saved by te big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I try to temper my excitement given how this is so far out, but I remember the models all picking up on our most recent storm at least 10 days out so who's to say. The Euro seems to show the cold air pushing South on the 22nd to the 24th as well. Getting the cold here is half the battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 There's near 100% agreement on the models that it will turn quite a bit colder in about 10 days and continue at least into early March. Euro weeklies in total agreement and they also suggest it won't be dry. This winter has been something else lol. I'm loving it. Spring can wait til spring! This has been quite a winter for many. I also wouldn't mind seeing more winter storm chances. Remember when I sent you a PM back in September asking if the intensity of winter storms picks up after back to back dud winters? Apparently that has worked out well so far this year. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The Jetstream looks interesting beginning on 2-24 when the cold is also starting to head our way. To what extent does this help "steer" or influence any moisture that could form as a result of Gulf low pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The last week of Feb and 1st week of March look generally below normal to avg temp wise. On the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The long range Euro looks interesting with what looks like a piece of the PV trying to work back into the northern tier of the US. From what I am reading up in the New England thread the GEFS shows a big trough coming back in the long range with a nice +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Frank Strait on Accu weather says on his blog, "Oh by the way winter is not over" looking at the long range something must be up on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1303Z SAT FEB 15 201412Z MODEL PRODUCTION CYCLE WILL DEFINITELY BE DELAYED.. DUE TOTHE MAJOR CIRCUIT AND INTERNET SERVICE ISSUE AT THE TOC/GATEWAY..WE ARE DELAYING THE START OF THE 12Z CYCLE RUNS.. INCLUDING THENAM AND RAP UPDATES.. DUE TO THE ON-GOING ISSUES AT THEGATEWAY/TOC. THEIR VENDOR/CONTRACTOR SAYS THEIR WORK COULD TAKEUP TO 2-3 HRS.. BUT THEY ARE ON-SITE AND WORKING ON THE ISSUE.WE WILL UPDATE YOU AS SOON AS WE KNOW HOW LONG THE DELAY OF THE12Z MODELS WILL BE... MOST OF THE DATA NEEDED TO RUN THE MODELSIS NOT REACHING THE NEW WCOSS SUPER COMPUTER TO RUN THE MODELSAND WE ARE ALSO UNABLE TO SEND PRODUCTS OUT AS WELL TOAWIPS...VIA THE TOC/GATEWAY.MORE INFORMATION ONCE THIS BECOMES AVAILABLE..NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This alert was generated by the National Weather ServiceEMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.NOUS42 KWNO 151437ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1433Z SAT FEB 15 201412Z MODEL PRODUCTION CYCLE DELAYED.. DUE TO THE MAJOR CIRCUIT ANDINTERNET SERVICE ISSUE AT THE TOC/GATEWAY.. FURTHER DELAY OF 2HRSWE ARE STILL DELAYING THE START OF THE 12Z CYCLE RUNS.. . DUE TOTHE ON-GOING ISSUES AT THE GATEWAY/TOC. THEIR VENDOR/CONTRACTORSAYSTHEIR WORK COULD TAKE UP TO 2-3 HRS ADDITIONALLY... CURRENTVENDOR ESTIMATES SHOW WORK MAY NOT BE COMPLETED FOR 2 MORE HRS..SO AFTER 16Z..WE WILL UPDATE YOU AS SOON AS WE KNOW HOW LONG THE DELAY OF THE12Z MODELS WILL BE... MOST OF THE DATA NEEDED TO RUN THE MODELSIS NOT REACHING THE NEW WCOSS SUPER COMPUTER TO RUN THE MODELSAND WE ARE ALSO UNABLE TO SEND PRODUCTS OUT AS WELL TOAWIPS...VIA THE TOC/GATEWAY.MORE INFORMATION ONCE THIS BECOMES AVAILABLE..NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This alert was generated by the National Weather Service EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network) from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server. NOUS42 KWNO 151437 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1433Z SAT FEB 15 2014 12Z MODEL PRODUCTION CYCLE DELAYED.. DUE TO THE MAJOR CIRCUIT AND INTERNET SERVICE ISSUE AT THE TOC/GATEWAY.. FURTHER DELAY OF 2HRS WE ARE STILL DELAYING THE START OF THE 12Z CYCLE RUNS.. . DUE TO THE ON-GOING ISSUES AT THE GATEWAY/TOC. THEIR VENDOR/CONTRACTOR SAYS THEIR WORK COULD TAKE UP TO 2-3 HRS ADDITIONALLY... CURRENT VENDOR ESTIMATES SHOW WORK MAY NOT BE COMPLETED FOR 2 MORE HRS.. SO AFTER 16Z.. WE WILL UPDATE YOU AS SOON AS WE KNOW HOW LONG THE DELAY OF THE 12Z MODELS WILL BE... MOST OF THE DATA NEEDED TO RUN THE MODELS IS NOT REACHING THE NEW WCOSS SUPER COMPUTER TO RUN THE MODELS AND WE ARE ALSO UNABLE TO SEND PRODUCTS OUT AS WELL TO AWIPS...VIA THE TOC/GATEWAY. MORE INFORMATION ONCE THIS BECOMES AVAILABLE.. NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Cool! If we can go a day or two without model runs, when they start back up , the fantasy storms will be closer. Whatever GFS 00z I looked at last night looked cold after next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NOUS42 KWNO 151537ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1526Z SAT FEB 15 2014VERY GOOD NEWS TO REPORT.. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS WILL BEGINSHORTLY AFTER THE DELAY DUE TO THE TOC/GATEWAY CIRCUIT ISSUESTHIS MORNING.WE ARE SEEING DELAYED DATA INPUT INTO THE NEW SUPER COMPUTERWCOSS SYSTEM... WE WILL KEEP YOU POSTED ON THE PROGRESS ONTHE NAM AND GFS MODELS SHORTLY. WE WILL ALSO TRY TO RE-RUN THERAP HOURLY RUNS. MORE TO COME..NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Is there looking to be a wintry threat around the 24 or 25th? I think it looks interesting, but may be looking at something wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NOUS42 KWNO 151537 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1526Z SAT FEB 15 2014 VERY GOOD NEWS TO REPORT.. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER THE DELAY DUE TO THE TOC/GATEWAY CIRCUIT ISSUES THIS MORNING. WE ARE SEEING DELAYED DATA INPUT INTO THE NEW SUPER COMPUTER WCOSS SYSTEM... WE WILL KEEP YOU POSTED ON THE PROGRESS ON THE NAM AND GFS MODELS SHORTLY. WE WILL ALSO TRY TO RE-RUN THE RAP HOURLY RUNS. MORE TO COME.. NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP A great day. Thanks to the new super computers, the models will be able to spit out crapola at a much faster rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think that cut off Ull is the thing to watch. Sometime after the 23 Goofy wants to build something. It was looking good around the 27, or so, until it wasn't, lol. Had a low crossing Fla. with some highs pressing down. The time frame after the 20th is good for climo, so we'll see what Goofy has to say when it's 4 days out instead of 12 or more. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Is there looking to be a wintry threat around the 24 or 25th? I think it looks interesting, but may be looking at something wrong. You noticing this too? The whole Feb 22-25th period has looked real interesting for several runs the past 3 days, at least to my amateur eyes. It looks like the upper atmosphere is very cold in this time frame but the temps down here aren't cooperating when all of that moisture comes through. The 27th is curious also. Hell, I just figured out how to get most of these models over the past couple of days so I certainly do not have the knowledge to truly analyze them other than what they imply at face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The 00z Euro control run is pretty interesting for our next influx of cold after this brief warm up....it sends the PV way south and gives NC and others in the SE -20C+ anomaly 850s, due to an extreme ridge building in eastern Canada trapping PV south. You can see this starting to happen at 240hrs on the Euro, extreme riding in eastern Canada.This is also seen on the GFS op and GFS ensemble means/controls. Very good sign for a cold and possibly stormy end to Feb, although I don't think it starts before the 27th-28th, as track likely inland during that time frame I'd imagine and temps will be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The 00z Euro control run is pretty interesting for our next influx of cold after this brief warm up....it sends the PV way south and gives NC and others in the SE -20C+ anomaly 850s, due to an extreme ridge building in eastern Canada trapping PV south. You can see this starting to happen at 240hrs on the Euro, extreme riding in eastern Canada.This is also seen on the GFS op and GFS ensemble means/controls. Very good sign for a cold and possibly stormy end to Feb, although I don't think it starts before the 27th-28th, as track likely inland during that time frame I'd imagine and temps will be too warm. It looks as cold as we had in January, just crazy, GEFS/EuroENS have it on our door step day 9, so this warm up may be short lived considering we have a few days to go until we hit 60. Edit: The Euro by day 15 does look to end winter again :-), hopefully this time for good. The troughing in the east slides east from day 10-15 and by day 15 we are back to east coast ridge. Which I guess would argue for a big storm of some sorts for someone around Feb 27-March 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It looks as cold as we had in January, just crazy, GEFS/EuroENS have it on our door step day 9, so this warm up may be short lived considering we have a few days to go until we hit 60. Edit: The Euro by day 15 does look to end winter again :-), hopefully this time for good. The troughing in the east slides east from day 10-15 and by day 15 we are back to east coast ridge. That's some intense cold for late February. Maybe we'll have one more shot at a solid storm before winter ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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