GaWx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The 18Z GFS has a winter storm 3/7-8, mainly for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 BTW, the 12z EPS mean is pretty bullish, especially for those of us in the northern SE. 10-day totals: GSO: 4.25"CLT: 3.5" RDU: 4.0" HKY: 3.75" AVL: 3.75" GSP: 2.75" PGV: 3.0" CAE: 2.0" ATL: 1.5" Not bad for the LR, IMO... EDIT: Yes, read Larry's post below as not all of this is likely snow, especially in more southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 BTW, the 12z EPS mean is pretty bullish, especially for those of us in the northern SE. 4.25"+ is the mean for GSO for the next 10 days. GSO: 4.25" CLT: 3.5" RDU: 4.0" HKY: 3.75" GSP: 2.75" PGV: 3.0" CAE: 2.0" ATL: 1.5" Not bad for the LR, IMO... James, Thanks. Reminder to all readers: that's a 10:1 ratio for any precip. falling with temp.'s 32 or lower. It isn't snowfall per se. So, ATL, for example, has 0.15" of qpf with two meter temp.'s 32 or colder on the 12Z Euro ens. mean. I suspect that is mostly from IP/ZR at ATL. Edit: That is rather bullish for so far out as suggested by James. 0.425" of qpf at GSO is a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 BTW, the 12z EPS mean is pretty bullish, especially for those of us in the northern SE. 10-day totals: GSO: 4.25" CLT: 3.5" RDU: 4.0" HKY: 3.75" AVL: 3.75" GSP: 2.75" PGV: 3.0" CAE: 2.0" ATL: 1.5" Not bad for the LR, IMO... EDIT: Yes, read Larry's post below as not all of this is likely snow, especially in more southern areas. The SuperJames storm lives! Going to be interesting to see how the models handle all this SS energy the next several days, you know it's going to change, I feel a lot of heartbreak coming for someone. Kind of bummer, my trip to IAD next week was pushed back, was looking forward to seeing a winter storm next week, it's almost certain to happen for them now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Finally looking at Euro vorticity maps, just nuts, there is so much energy flying around, rounding the base of the PV, diving over PAC ridge, cutting underneath the ridge, which happens continuously the next 10 days, you have to think something big may happen, which is essentially what the models are showing, but hopefully bigger for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Radar is lighting up down in TX and LA. It's now-casting time. Will be interesting to see where all that precip goes. My guess is that it will slide harmlessly out to sea across GA, and SC just catching SE NC. Still looks interesting at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It's really hard to get excited about tonight's "event" precip or not! It's currently sitting at a frigid 58.6 degrees!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Finally looking at Euro vorticity maps, just nuts, there is so much energy flying around, rounding the base of the PV, diving over PAC ridge, cutting underneath the ridge, which happens continuously the next 10 days, you have to think something big may happen, which is essentially what the models are showing, but hopefully bigger for someone.Exactly, most should understand by now that with all this energy coming down the pipe the models are going to have some trouble with the individual systems both in evolution and result. Interesting period coming up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It's really hard to get excited about tonight's "event" precip or not! It's currently sitting at a frigid 58.6 degrees!! Temps have fallen off quickly here clear skies versus the forecast for clouds for the win.....down to 39, be nice to see temps down around 32 by morning might give me a chance at a dusting on elevated surfaces. I just need the timing to speed up a little would like to see it start before sunup. MHX has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 3 long shots over the next 8 days. First up tonight, dp's have fallen into the mid teens this evening which will result in some Virga at sunrise tomorrow morning in the triad. Next late Friday into early Sat morning many locations in the Triad should see some novelty sleet/ grapple mess before Climo switches to light rain. The 3rd long shot is day 8 and only potential at big dog. First question that needs to be answered is if indeed there is going to be a storm. At the moment all globals with ensemble support say yes. That's the trend to watch . If it's still there by Friday, especially euro op/ ens and Canadian, then the issue will become track, 850,s, BL e.t.c Just need to make sure there is in fact a storm and not have the fantasy genii pull the rug out like it is tonight and Saturday. I have a feeling next week could be a big daddy for someone. Not sure if it's just MA, mountains, NC or SE specific, but a big late winter / early spring big daddy is overdue IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 3 long shots over the next 8 days. First up tonight, dp's have fallen into the mid teens this evening which will result in some Virga at sunrise tomorrow morning in the triad. Next late Friday into early Sat morning many locations in the Triad should see some novelty sleet/ grapple mess before Climo switches to light rain. The 3rd long shot is day 8 and only potential at big dog. First question that needs to be answered is if indeed there is going to be a storm. At the moment all globals with ensemble support say yes. That's the trend to watch . If it's still there by Friday, especially euro op/ ens and Canadian, then the issue will become track, 850,s, BL e.t.c Just need to make sure there is in fact a storm and not have the fantasy genii pull the rug out like it is tonight and Saturday. I have a feeling next week could be a big daddy for someone. Not sure if it's just MA, mountains, NC or SE specific, but a big late winter / early spring big daddy is overdue IMO. GFS just went nuts with snow tomorrow morning over northern AL/GA/SC, narrow band of 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 All nice and dandy with the Euro showing frozen precip around the Midlands of SC.. too bad only about 20 eps members have anything frozen for KCAE proper and most of those are light. The track sure is nice, but once again... I can do without ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 0Z GFS looks like it will have dry 500 mb flow and, therefore, probably no storm for most 3/6-8. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It's ten days out, time for the GFS to lose the storm! Cold and dry will be good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The 00z GGEM still has the 3/6 storm. Looks like it's a little more offshore this round and probably pounds eastern and central NC (and SC?). It's still a decent event all the way into the foothills, though. It is a late-bloomer and is around half a day faster than last run. It looks easily cold enough based on the 540 and 534 thickness lines close to the beaches. The central and western areas are probably looking at fluff bomb type stuff. It's a nice slider that goes OTS and doesn't really effect much of anyone north of Richmond and then coastal Delaware. Probably a PGV or RWI jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Folks, The 0Z GGEM loses the Miller A and just has an offshore Atlantic low form 3/5. Not much for places like N GA and W Carolinas but nice for E Carolinas 3/5-early 3/6. I don't know if SE GA cold enough will need to check 850's/2 meter later. Edit: just saw James' post lol. Anyone staying up for the King to tell us what's really going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 But the 00z GFS has dry for the 6 th timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 But the 00z GFS has dry for the 6 th timeframe? Yes. Cold and dry with -10C 850s dipping into NC. A westerly flow at 500 mb doesn't do us any favors as far as storms are concerned. EDIT: Just for Canadian entertainment purposes... Looks like a major ice storm for coastal SC with a huge snowstorm further north near Wilmington with easily 12"+. Further west, it's a high-ratio fluffy snow with surface temperatures near 20 and 850s around -10C. It jackpots the area from FAY towards PGV with over a foot and gives areas as far west as Gastonia and west of Winston-Salem a few inches of high-ratio fluff. RDU is probably around 6-9", depending on ratios... GSO maybe 4-5"... CLT 2-4"... CAE 3-5"... I'm just glad it's showing a storm. Details are irrelevant except for entertainment purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Folks, The 0Z GGEM loses the Miller A and just has an offshore Atlantic low form 3/5. Not much for places like N GA and W Carolinas but nice for E Carolinas 3/5-early 3/6. I don't know if SE GA cold enough will need to check 850's/2 meter later. Edit: just saw James' post lol. Anyone staying up for the King to tell us what's really going to happen? Well, well, well, what do you know. Per 0Z 2/26 GGEM precip. types, SE GA just inland from Savannah gets ZR verbatim 3/5! CHS gets a third ZR of the season 3/5 into early 3/6!! I already thought two was ridiculous, but three would be unbelievable? Is CHS the new SC capital for ZR? Ravenel bridge closing again?? Only thing comparable may be 3/2-3/1962! The mix goes inland to near CAE, which late changes to snow before ending early 3/6. N GA/W Carolinas get mainly light snow while E NC gets a major snow late 3/5 to 3/6. Edit: Deltadog, did you see my post about the March 2-3, 1962 major ZR not far from Savannah and CHS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I did. Ty Larry! Will be interested in seeing if the euro has the storm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I saw where someone earlier stated something about the 0Z GFS showing some accumulating snow over North Alabama tonight and in to tomorrow morning. Someone mind expanding on that? Is that information correct? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Over 2 freakin' feet in a spot of Eastern NC per 00z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I saw where someone earlier stated something about the 0Z GFS showing some accumulating snow over North Alabama tonight and in to tomorrow morning. Someone mind expanding on that? Is that information correct? Thanks. As crazy as it sounds, the 0Z GFS clown shows up to 3" of snow on the far N GA/AL border late tonight! Also, there's 1-3" west of there in far N AL fwiw. I'm not sure I believe it but it is on the map fwiw. Edit: 0Z Euro has nothing of 1"+/pretty much nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I saw where someone earlier stated something about the 0Z GFS showing some accumulating snow over North Alabama tonight and in to tomorrow morning. Someone mind expanding on that? Is that information correct? Thanks. LOL I dont know about correct but the last GFS run clown maps showed a narrow band of 1-2" totals but I would take it with a grain of salt..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Per radar, Bricks flurry fest precip is not going to make it to NC. It's heading ESE. Unless its coming from that band from the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 King demoted to prince as 0Z Euro is way different vs. 12Z Euro with pattern. Not even worth analyzing. Needless to say, not winter storm lol. Next run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I saw where someone earlier stated something about the 0Z GFS showing some accumulating snow over North Alabama tonight and in to tomorrow morning. Someone mind expanding on that? Is that information correct? Thanks. Cold chasing the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 This really looks a lot like the December pattern where everything stayed seasonal but the models kept getting winter storm signals only for it not to verify once we got within 72 hours or so. I don't trust the CMC at all. Wasn't this morning like a week ago supposed to be in the teens? I could be wrong about that but didn't models have the PV dropping down pretty far? I hope I'm wrong but I just don't have a good feeling about this pattern....and since it's pretty much almost March I hope it turns into a 70 and sunny pattern soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So the Canadien looks good, the GFS is dry, and the Euro was completely different from the previous run to the last. Unless the models start showing the same thing consistently, I think more likely than not there isn't going to be a winter storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So the Canadien looks good, the GFS is dry, and the Euro was completely different from the previous run to the last. Unless the models start showing the same thing consistently, I think more likely than not there isn't going to be a winter storm next week. well it sure doesn't look good when no one is posting on here much. I hope you guys in the central and eastern parts of nc get hit but I in the western part would like a good old fashion miller A gulf low that spreads moisture northeast so we to could be in on the heavy snow. boy these 10 day storms keep on fizzling every time we get within 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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