Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 you should probably start a thread Has to be in 7 days first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The 12Z 4-K NAM gives KHKY a little over 1 inch of snowfall from the overnight system... Here is the link to the Meteogram generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The 12Z 4-K NAM gives KHKY a little over 1 inch of snowfall from the overnight system... Here is the link to the Meteogram generator. About the same here. I have a hard time seeing that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z Euro MAY have SE winter storm around 3/6-7 from Miller A per 192 hour maps! We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z Euro MAY have SE winter storm around 3/6-7 from Miller A per 192 hour maps! We'll see. I was noticing that, nice shortwave coming east, low pressure initiating way down in the gulf, and a BIG cold high overhead. Let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I was noticing that, nice shortwave coming east, low pressure initiating way down in the gulf, and a BIG cold high overhead. Let's see where it goes. Huge winter storm fro some!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Cmc says to euro..."Welcome to the party." 12z euro very similar to the cmc. Strong cad signal w/ good qpf for the SE. Now if we can get this within 5 days...LOL. Edit: Sorry, this is for the 3/6 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 About the same here. I have a hard time seeing that happening. Agreed, but I found it interesting, nonetheless. I believe the BL temps and the actual amounts of QPF that verify are still huge question marks, even though this system is less than 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 So the Euro, CMC, and GFS now see the big dog. Ok. Now, can we keep it for the next 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Can we talk specifics as to what the Euro showed just for fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Can we talk specifics as to what the Euro showed just for fun? I think your question is better phrased, "Will someone who has paid for a subscription weather service please share with those of us who have not?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 So the Euro, CMC, and GFS now see the big dog. Ok. Now, can we keep it for the next 10 days? Models are so bad after day 5 right now, especially the Euro. The 0z Euro run had the 3/3 event tracking the SLP through central TN then over Philly, today it has up the NC Apps then down I-40 through NC, that was a 400 mile shift at day 6. We are going to have to wait until this atleast gets within 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Notice how the energy in the northern stream on the Euro slides due east off the NE coast at 216 and becomes a perfect 50/50, locking in confluence in the NE and High Pressure. Perfect winter storm setup. BUT, will it slide due east? That's a mistake I've seen the models make out in fantasy land several times so far this winter. What has happened in most cases is that instead of the energy/low/PV moving east out into the Atlantic, it moves NE up toward Greenland, taking the confluence zone NE with it. High Pressure retreats north and east and the cold moves out/is not as intense as it was initially progged. Maybe this time is different, but that is the biggest risk I see with this setup with no -NAO. We'll watch for that as we move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I think your question is better phrased, "Will someone who has paid for a subscription weather service please share with those of us who have not?" A lot of snow for GSP to CLT, 10"+. Has ice/snow for a lot of GA/SC and NC. This is day 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Also of interest on Wednesday March 5 per the ECMWF is an impressive line of demarcation in temperature with -12F showing up in Kentucky whereas NW North Carolina stays in the mid 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Here is the Canadian per JB on twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Just tweeted by Allan Huffman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Notice how the energy in the northern stream on the Euro slides due east off the NE coast at 216 and becomes a perfect 50/50, locking in confluence in the NE and High Pressure. Perfect winter storm setup. BUT, will it slide due east? That's a mistake I've seen the models make out in fantasy land several times so far this winter. What has happened in most cases is that instead of the energy/low/PV moving east out into the Atlantic, it moves NE up toward Greenland, taking the confluence zone NE with it. High Pressure retreats north and east and the cold moves out/is not as intense as it was initially progged. Maybe this time is different, but that is the biggest risk I see with this setup with no -NAO. We'll watch for that as we move in. Hmmm, All three global models picking up on a day 9 threat. Where have we seen that before? I think you're right though a big key ingredient to our last storm was that baffin island block that stuck it self right in to keep everything just right for us. In order for this to play out it would seem we need something similar. Didn't HM say over on the MA thread something about a potential system this week benefiting from a -NAO "blip"? Climo makes me think waaaarrrrrmmmm....but we'll see. With 3 models on board I'm listening for Larry, the storm whisper, to bark to see if this is for real or not.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Hmmm, All three global models picking up on a day 9 threat. Where have we seen that before? I think you're right though a big key ingredient to our last storm was that baffin island block that stuck it self right in to keep everything just right for us. In order for this to play out it would seem we need something similar. Didn't HM say over on the MA thread something about a potential system this week benefiting from a -NAO "blip"? Climo makes me think waaaarrrrrmmmm....but we'll see. With 3 models on board I'm listening for Larry, the storm whisper, to bark to see if this is for real or not.... Yeah, it'll be interesting to see if we get any help from a -NAO or -NAO-like feature this time. It was remarkable how we were able to track that last storm all the way in from like 8 days out. This time, it will be much harder to maintain a cold air source. The good news is, Canada remains plenty cold. The bad news is, models seem to see colder air farther south in the LR than what will actually be there. Then, you have to wonder about whether the energy in the southern stream will really get it done on the precip front. We've seen a lot of peetering out lately. We'll see, but it's good to have all 3 major models showing a threat. Better to show potential at D10 than a SE ridge at D10, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Well the 18z NAM is nailing the coffin shut for tomorrow's big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12Z 2/25 Euro has ~0.8-1.2" of qpf with temp.'s verbatim 32 or colder from ATL to Fayetteville, NC 3/6-7. N GA mainly gets IP/ZR due to 850's of +1 to +3 though far NE GA likely gets some SN. ZR down to ~25 miles below MCN verbatim! Looks sort of like the last one, incredibly enough, but is colder looking from this far out! Miller A crosses Cedar Key to Daytona while monster 1043 mb high over NE gives excellent CAD! The precip. lasts close to 24 hours due to a rather slow mover, similar to the last storm. This would cap an already amazing winter! The 12Z GFS and 12Z GGEM have something quite similar for 3/6-7 as has been already noted! Edit: the 12Z Euro ensemble mean definitely has the 3/6-7 storm and actually has it cross FL ~150 miles lower than the operational has...over south-central FL pen. vs. north-central for the op. Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12Z 2/25 Euro has ~0.8-1.2" of qpf with temp.'s verbatim 32 or colder from ATL to Fayetteville, NC 3/6-7. N GA mainly gets IP/ZR due to 850's of +1 to +3 though far NE GA likely gets some SN. ZR down to ~25 miles below MCN verbatim! Looks sort of like the last one, incredibly enough, but is colder looking from this far out! Miller A crosses Cedar Key to Daytona while monster 1043 mb high over NE gives excellent CAD! The precip. lasts close to 24 hours due to a rather slow mover, similar to the last storm. This would cap an already amazing winter! The 12Z GFS and 12Z GGEM have something quite similar for 3/6-7 as has been already noted! Edit: the 12Z Euro ensemble mean definitely has the 3/6-7 storm and actually has it cross FL lower than the operational has...over south-central FL pen. vs. north-central for the op. Euro! I was just about to say that I'll bet the Euro Ens will look pretty good wrt a storm being there. It'll be interesting to see if this maintains as a Miller A or becomes some A/B hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Larry, the clown maps hammer my area..hahahah I do think we have 1 more threat, and this may be it. The high is certainly modeled stronger on this run (and the other models have it as well) then the last storm. As you said above, that would be a helluva ZR storm down here, and verbatim its colder than 32 at 2m as shown on here. That would tell me we be looking at 20's from MCN northward at the SFC. WAAAAY long time to go with this one, but that would RUIN my family weekend trip up to ATL.....I WONT be happy about this... lets hope for strong WAA for everyone...hahahhaahahahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Larry, the clown maps hammer my area..hahahah I do think we have 1 more threat, and this may be it. The high is certainly modeled stronger on this run (and the other models have it as well) then the last storm. As you said above, that would be a helluva ZR storm down here, and verbatim its colder than 32 at 2m as shown on here. That would tell me we be looking at 20's from MCN northward at the SFC. WAAAAY long time to go with this one, but that would RUIN my family weekend trip up to ATL.....I WONT be happy about this... lets hope for strong WAA for everyone...hahahhaahahahah From my files regarding Euro two meter warm bias, it verified a warm bias on a run from three days out (12Z of 2/9 for 2/12): "The 12Z run of 2/9 was used (by at least Lookout and myself) to verify that two meter temp.'s, which only got down to 32-33 at ATL on that run during the height of the wedge, were about 4-5 degrees too warm during the height of the wedge (actually got down to 28). So, the warm bias on that run verified though not quite to the degree I thought it could be as I thought it could be as much as ~7 degrees. Also, later runs did get colder with upper 20's for the coldest on some and were, therefore, actually very close." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 From my files regarding Euro two meter warm bias, it verified a warm bias on a run from three days out: "The 12Z run of 2/9 was used (by at least Lookout and myself) to verify that two meter temp.'s, which only got down to 32-33 at ATL on that run during the height of the wedge, were about 4-5 degrees too warm during the height of the wedge (actually got down to 28). So, the warm bias on that run verified though not quite to the degree I thought it could be as I thought it could be as much as ~7 degrees. Also, later runs did get colder with upper 20's for the coldest on some and were, therefore, actually very close." Sounds great! Great work from the both of yall! This potential storm is miles away still, but ya, that would mean we all would be down in the mid to upper 20's then from MCN up yalls way. There is a little blip shown where our 850's dip to 0c or -0.5c for a few hours, but that would be ICE here for sure. With that said, its so far out that its laughable to get into details, but all 3 biggies shown something on there 12z runs and thats impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Sounds great! Great work from the both of yall! This potential storm is miles away still, but ya, that would mean we all would be down in the mid to upper 20's then from MCN up yalls way. There is a little blip shown where our 850's dip to 0c or -0.5c for a few hours, but that would be ICE here for sure. With that said, its so far out that its laughable to get into details, but all 3 biggies shown something on there 12z runs and thats impressive! Thanks, Chris. Also from my file on the 2/11-13/14 series of storms regarding the Euro: - Had major winter storm verbatim for much of NC starting with 12Z run of 2/4 and continuing with every run all of the way to the events!! - Had major winter storm verbatim for ATL-AHN corridor starting with 12Z run of 2/6 and continuing with every run all of the way to the events except it had two meter temp.'s of 34-36 on 12Z run of 2/7. However, with 850's then +3 to +5, solid wedging, and lots of precip., it was then implying to me major ZR regardless of what its two meter temp.'s showed. Also, there were like 14 of 15 GFS runs that had it before it lost it. It didn't come back until just a couple of days before! So, we're one day away from the point for when the amazing Euro started to have the storm for NC (8 days out) and it never looked back!! However, it didn't even have anything much for SC/GA until 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 WxSouth posted on facebook a little while ago and didn't sound too excited about next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 WxSouth posted on facebook a little while ago and didn't sound too excited about next week.Indeed he did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Thanks, Chris. Also from my file on the 2/11-13/14 series of storms regarding the Euro: - Had major winter storm verbatim for much of NC starting with 12Z run of 2/4 and continuing with every run all of the way to the events!! - Had major winter storm verbatim for ATL-AHN corridor starting with 12Z run of 2/6 and continuing with every run all of the way to the events except it had two meter temp.'s of 34-36 on 12Z run of 2/7. However, with 850's then +3 to +5, solid wedging, and lots of precip., it was then implying to me major ZR regardless of what its two meter temp.'s showed. Also, there were like 14 of 15 GFS runs that had it before it lost it. It didn't come back until just a couple of days before! So, we're one day away from the point for when the amazing Euro started to have the storm for NC (8 days out) and it never looked back!! However, it didn't even have anything much for SC/GA until 6 days out. Great work again sir! I will be interested to see how the models handle this going forward. Will they poof this one like they did with this saturday's non event? or will it continue to show this one and build on it. Pattern is good for one last storm....IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 WxSouth posted on facebook a little while ago and didn't sound too excited about next week. Yep. Since we're talking March it's not hard to think he's probably right. And I don't like that the last modeled cold didn't come about. With that said, he didn't exactly jump on board the last storm until it was closer in...IIRC. Edit: It looks like he started calling it a good set up about 7 days out. So give him a couple days!! Interestingly he called the baffin ridging setup about 7 days out too. I take it from his meh post that he doesn't see the blocking that the last storm had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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