Jon Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yeah, someone needs to answer this question. We're looking at slightly below normal temps and all rain right now. Hardly Polar Vortex II. It's not even cold yet. lol. Wait a few days and you'll see at least 10-15 degrees below norm. Looking at long range 500mb anomaly mean and trying to pinpoint the severity of the cold that far out is a bit difficult. You know it's a deep trough over the east but where that PV sets up and how tightly wound up it is is still up for debate up until a couple days out. Models continue to have a hard time with it. I mentioned on Feb 14th that the cold wouldn't get here until around 2/27 and I also said I was hoping the models were overdoing the cold. I'm not surprised they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The 0z cmc holds onto the 3/5 - 3/6 storm. Impressive cad w/ a good amt. of moisture. Too early for details and need other models to show something similar. Edit: As James mentioned on the 12z run, it looks similar to the 2/12 storm on the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The 0z cmc holds onto the 3/5 - 3/6 storm. Impressive cad w/ a good amt. of moisture. Too early for details and need other models to show something similar. It's fun how it drops our areas about 35 degrees in 12 hours (from the low 60s to the mid 20s) on 3/3 and changes us over to snow for the tail end. The 3/6 setup still looks nice. Looks like a big dog here with 6"+ as the snow/sleet line straddles I-85, more or less. Looks like snow to ice further east. Good CAD penetration well into SC and GA with the NC CAD regions in the mid-20s. I need to lock that run up in a box and run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Anyone up with news on the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 In ATL, the last major ZR in March was all of the way back in 1971 (incredibly enough March 25th, which produced a big snow up your way I believe). However, there were also 2 in 1960 and one in the 1940's at ATL. Edit: Folks, don't give up on winter if it doesn't do much through 3/5 as indications are hinting at +PNA beyond that fwiw. Yeah March 25th 1971, one of the biggest snowstorms I've ever seen here in the Upstate of SC. Huge flakes fell from late morning till on up into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yep I expect these kind of temps in April but not February. You hate to waste a February week with temps like that. Mother nature owes us a week so maybe in March we can cash in on a big dog and then I'd be ready for spring. Just one more big one would be great. Sigh Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Optimism from RAH this morning: AFTER THIS SYSTEM... THE NEXT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY ASWELL BECAUSE OF THE VERY COLD HIGH AGAIN BUILDING SOUTH ANDSOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST... AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOUTHERN BRANCHSYSTEM TRACKING FROM TX TO THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED. THE FIRSTWEEK OF MARCH HAS DELIVERED WINTER STORMS BEFORE - AND THIS PATTERNSUGGESTS WATCHING NEXT WEEK AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Euro ENS graphs are really starting to perk up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yeah, someone needs to answer this question. We're looking at slightly below normal temps and all rain right now. Hardly Polar Vortex II.It's in the Midwest never making it this far south. 30 degrees below normal out there with our temps dropping a little below normal for us in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yeah, someone needs to answer this question. We're looking at slightly below normal temps and all rain right now. Hardly Polar Vortex II.It's in the Midwest never making it this far south. 30 degrees below normal out there with our temps dropping a little below normal for us in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It's fun how it drops our areas about 35 degrees in 12 hours (from the low 60s to the mid 20s) on 3/3 and changes us over to snow for the tail end. The 3/6 setup still looks nice. Looks like a big dog here with 6"+ as the snow/sleet line straddles I-85, more or less. Looks like snow to ice further east. Good CAD penetration well into SC and GA with the NC CAD regions in the mid-20s. I need to lock that run up in a box and run! This seems like a legit threat. I remember back in the early 90s, we had some good ice storms where it was in the 60s at 8 or 9 a m, and freezing rain and sleet covering the ground by 4 or 5 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It's in the Midwest never making it this far south. 30 degrees below normal out there with our temps dropping a little below normal for us in the next few days. doesn't take a lot of cold air to produce snow, just the right amount, I think a lot of our problem last month when it was so cold it was just to cold if you ask me. biggest snowfall I've seen was around 34. with that real cold air close by it won't take much to tap in to that pool of cold stuff to be just right for a big winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Optimism from RAH this morning: RAH saying we need to watch tuesday and wednesday with the cold air close by for a possible snowstorm and GSP playing it down as a probable rain event. go figure, you would think both offices would be seeing the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 RAH saying we need to watch tuesday and wednesday with the cold air close by for a possible snowstorm and GSP playing it down as a probable rain event. go figure, you would think both offices would be seeing the same thing. Verbatim it looks like rain, but as RAH mentions, there is cold nearby. And that far away, as we all know, things can and do change. Could go dry, could go warm, could go wintry. Looks like rain now? Correct, GSP. Worth watching? Correct, RAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 RAH saying we need to watch tuesday and wednesday with the cold air close by for a possible snowstorm and GSP playing it down as a probable rain event. go figure, you would think both offices would be seeing the same thing. 12z Nam had at least snow showers for most of the state so I bet we see some flakes. The models really seem to be correcting north quick without moving the cold, which leads me to believe that tomorrow might be a little bigger deal then anyone is expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I've never really bought into this storm and I'll give my unscientific reason why. Typically around late Feb and early March you need a really dynamic storm. In fact I think the last few snows we've had in March have all come from an ULL trekking across the Southeast. Climo starts to become more and more of a factor. In fact it already looks like the cold isn't quite as impressive as it looked just a week ago. I would not be surprised if now it becomes models chasing cold but when we get to the period of extreme cold it's milder than predicted. In essence the pattern has flipped in regards to how it is being modeled. Then again maybe I'm just ready for Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I think there is 1 more nice storm for us, but not in this pattern. IMO. Matter of fact I like what burger said. The pattern has flipped where the cold shots would overwhelm the pattern. They are not doing that anymore. Not in the SE that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 So, the 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS have seemingly switched roles compared to yesterday. Previously, the NAM was dry as a bone and the GFS was showing decent QPF response. That is no longer true. Consider the 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS, both around hour 24. The NAM is much further north into NC with the QPF than is the GFS, and it keeps the precip around for several frames. The GFS, on the other hand, never shows any precip in NC with this little impulse. 12Z NAM @ hour 26 12Z GFS @ hour 24 Oh, and I continue to enjoy the artwork and explanations, CR. Two thumbs up from me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 FWIW, the hi-res nam has moisture for the carolinas tomorrow as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I forgot to add above, the 2m-temps are really not that great; so, even with the QPF response of the NAM, it doesn't appear that much snowfall (if it materialized) would actually stick around once hitting the ground. Here are the minimum temperatures at hour 26 on the NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 All in for SuperJames 3/6-7 event and with RAH peeked interest what's not to like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 All in for SuperJames 3/6-7 event and with RAH peeked interest what's not to like... That it's 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 CMC day 9 is a big winter storm for the SE that develops into a big coastal that plasters the east coast…the "SuperJames" event is alive…WB weenie maps should be funny... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 CMC day 9 is a big winter storm for the SE that develops into a big coastal that plasters the east coast…the "SuperJames" event is alive…WB weenie maps should be funny... yep we've seen the old 9 and 10 day storms quite a few times. 3 or 4 days out would be better. still hope for march but running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GFS OP day 10-13 is crazy, it drops the PV over the NE….come on Spring where are you…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 yep we've seen the old 9 and 10 day storms quite a few times. 3 or 4 days out would be better. still hope for march but running out of time. Yep, I am being half sarcastic, it's probably the last fantasy event we have until next December. GFS OP says Spring can wait, which would suck, but it's the OP GFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GFS OP day 10-13 is crazy, it drops the PV over the NE….come on Spring where are you…. Not as crazy as the 18z GFS was yesterday haha. Yep, I am being half sarcastic, it's probably the last fantasy event we have until next December. GFS OP says Spring can wait, which would suck, but it's the OP GFS too. A lot more models than the GFS have this solution, so it has a bit more support than being a LR GFS...pick your poison: GFS ENS, Euro ENS, Euro Weeklies, CFSv2, MJO, etc. GEM also, but it's just bad so it's misplacing the trough too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Not as crazy as the 18z GFS was yesterday haha. A lot more models than the GFS have this solution, so it has a bit more support than being a LR GFS...pick your poison: GFS ENS, Euro ENS, Euro Weeklies, CFSv2, MJO, etc. GEM also, but it's just bad so it's misplacing the trough too far east. You literally can't draw a better winter storm map for the SE, to bad it's 9 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 That it's 10 days out. you should probably start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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