packbacker Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 For the 3/3 event, even SE MA and southern CT are rain, as is NYC. Sweeeetttt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I'm talking about GA/SC, not NC. The 0Z Euro op. has essentially nothing wintry for nearly all of GA/SC days 7-10 vs. the Crazy Uncle's major ZR/mix and keeping in mind the inferiority of the Crazy Uncle (thus the nickname).With the crazy uncle the only model really on board, it's hard to get excited about. The threats keep getting less and less wintry with each run and each storm! Record breaking cold March? Not looking likely. Above normal rainfall, very likely! Winter is finished outside the mtns, except for Bricks flurry fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 12z euro has a nice rainstorm for 3/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I don't remember that many ice events in ga in March. It is usually rain or snow (not that it can't happen). So any model showing an ice event the closer we get to march and further in March we get doesn't really get my attention. Yes there have been snows in April but once we get (at least n ga) to mid march chances really start dwindling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I don't remember that many ice events in ga in March. It is usually rain or snow (not that it can't happen). So any model showing an ice event the closer we get to march and further in March we get doesn't really get my attention. Yes there have been snows in April but once we get (at least n ga) to mid march chances really start dwindling In ATL, the last major ZR in March was all of the way back in 1971 (incredibly enough March 25th, which produced a big snow up your way I believe). However, there were also 2 in 1960 and one in the 1940's at ATL. Edit: Folks, don't give up on winter if it doesn't do much through 3/5 as indications are hinting at +PNA beyond that fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Well, the 18z NAM is back onboard for the 2/26 flizzard. And the 12z EPS mean indicates a Miller B, FWIW... Yeah def one its better runs which I don't think it was off board anyway. lol. nam is similar to gfs in respect of the h7 level as far as more moisture and expansive precip shield. Also the best omega values along the VA border and NE NC. Could almost say that will be the jackpot areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I don't remember that many ice events in ga in March. It is usually rain or snow (not that it can't happen). So any model showing an ice event the closer we get to march and further in March we get doesn't really get my attention. Yes there have been snows in April but once we get (at least n ga) to mid march chances really start dwindling Lived in NC (Central, Western) all my life (50+ years). Don't remember any significant icing from late Feb through Spring. Generally, after January... I discount that threat. Curious. Historical references to major icing in this area during this time frame? SE, in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Lived in NC (Central, Western) all my life (50+ years). Don't remember any significant icing from late Feb through Spring. Generally, after January... I discount that threat. Curious. Historical references to major icing in this area during this time frame? SE, in general? - There was major ZR 3/13/1993 before it snowed in northern Piedmont of NC. - 0.5" of ice 2/27-28/1982 portions of eastern Piedmont of NC - Three major ZR's in March, 1960: 3/2-3, 3/9, and 3/16-7. The first two included ATL and much of N GA. Overdo for a late season major ZR? Neutral negative is the most favored ENSO phase for major ZR/IP in N GA at least. Of course, N GA, part of C GA, and part of SC already had a major ZR/IP this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Lived in NC (Central, Western) all my life (50+ years). Don't remember any significant icing from late Feb through Spring. Generally, after January... I discount that threat. Curious. Historical references to major icing in this area during this time frame? SE, in general? Here is another from just a decade ago. That was a pretty long-winded event, too, IIRC. It seemed like it lasted two days, though I think temperatures were kind of marginal (30-32, I'd guess), so it probably wasn't as bad as it could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Take it or leave it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Wouldn't it be nice if one of these systems coming up actually went in our favor, I mean where as right now the models don't show much, if all of a sudden they went in the opposite direction in our favor showing a snowstorm. Its been a while since we've had one of these outcomes. It seems its always the opposite, models show snow then they don't and never seem to turn it around in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 KGSP Briefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Fwiw, mainly entertainment, absolutely idiotic cold 3/11-12 per 18Z GFS. Winter is nowhere close to ending per this and other indicators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This is from WPC for Wednesdays event. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Models don't sound consistent at all with any real winter threat. And anything they do show keep getting pushed back. I think it's going to be cool annd wet the next week, but folks are grasping at straws finding a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Fwiw, mainly entertainment, absolutely idiotic cold 3/11-12 per 18Z GFS. Winter is nowhere close to ending per this and other indicators. Euro EPS mean, GFS EPS mean, CFSv2, Euro Weeklies, etc etc list goes on and on. 3/10-3/12 period seems to be locked in for return of more cold. How deep that cold gets is the only mystery here. Will it be 18z GFS cold? Single digit lows in TN/NC? Probably not, but this is exactly the reason why some shouldn't be giving up on winter threats. As long as there is cold around and until the pattern in the LR looks to flip for spring and summer, we're game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Fwiw, mainly entertainment, absolutely idiotic cold 3/11-12 per 18Z GFS. Winter is nowhere close to ending per this and other indicators. I'm tired of all this danged heat. I'm ready for winter!! Can't sleet, or sleep, at night, fleas already bothering the pup. Next it'll be mozzies, and months of despair, lol. At least I'm getting rain. Got 1.6 the other day. I like a split flow, with cold over the top. Always chances for a surprise the models don't recognize....and if nothing else...good rain. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Models don't sound consistent at all with any real winter threat. And anything they do show keep getting pushed back. I think it's going to be cool annd wet the next week, but folks are grasping at straws finding a winter storm. Ok, Mr. 7 Day Out Winter Storm thread starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 What happened to the ridiculous cold that was supposed to invade this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Fwiw, mainly entertainment, absolutely idiotic cold 3/11-12 per 18Z GFS. Winter is nowhere close to ending per this and other indicators. I saw that...... It will never happen but it's nice to look at. Don't worry, it will be gone by the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 What happened to the ridiculous cold that was supposed to invade this week? It wasn't nearly as ridiculous on any runs going back to 2/18 for KATL at least (coldest 17 and that in late Feb. vs. the idiotic 10 low and -16C 850 for 3/12 on this 18Z GFS). Of course, this extreme solution is in fantasyland and is undoubtedly way too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin1110GA Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I AM NEW AND HAVE BEEN READING THESE FORUMS LATELY. IS THIS CONSIDERED "FANTASY"? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I AM NEW AND HAVE BEEN READING THESE FORUMS LATELY. IS THIS CONSIDERED "FANTASY"? Sent from my iPhone Simply put...... yep. It could happen, but there is very little chance of the verification map looking like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It wasn't nearly as ridiculous on any runs going back to 2/18 for KATL at least (coldest 17 and that in late Feb. vs. the idiotic 10 low and -16C 850 for 3/12 on this 18Z GFS). Of course, this extreme solution is in fantasyland and is undoubtedly way too cold. Yeah, this is the problem. Lucy is back at it again. Was supposed to get colder this week and i will have probs just getting back down to normal. She jerks it away anymore for us non mtn folks and it will be too late anyway. This has been the most frustrating week in Feb in a long time. 60s and 70s for a solid week stinks this time of year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yep I expect these kind of temps in April but not February. You hate to waste a February week with temps like that. Mother nature owes us a week so maybe in March we can cash in on a big dog and then I'd be ready for spring. Just one more big one would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Bernie Rayno's thoughts http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/plenty-of-cold-but-no-big-sno/2430839568001?channel=top_story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 What happened to the ridiculous cold that was supposed to invade this week?Yeah, someone needs to answer this question. We're looking at slightly below normal temps and all rain right now. Hardly Polar Vortex II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 In ATL, the last major ZR in March was all of the way back in 1971 (incredibly enough March 25th, which produced a big snow up your way I believe). However, there were also 2 in 1960 and one in the 1940's at ATL. Edit: Folks, don't give up on winter if it doesn't do much through 3/5 as indications are hinting at +PNA beyond that fwiw. that was a great surprise monster snowfall in march lol. the one in 71 was a little before my time. guess thats why i can remember the few march snows but not ice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yeah, someone needs to answer this question. We're looking at slightly below normal temps and all rain right now. Hardly Polar Vortex II. That's an easy answer. It's very common for models to overestimate the magnitude of cold air outbreaks. We see it every year. This time is hardly surprising. I know you're not suggesting otherwise. In all honesty, I'd be more surprised to see severe cold this time of year actually verify than back off as we get closer. I'm more surprised about the anaemic southern stream that was supposed to be active, producing copious amounts of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 That's an easy answer. It's very common for models to overestimate the magnitude of cold air outbreaks. We see it every year. This time is hardly surprising. I know you're not suggesting otherwise. In all honesty, I'd be more surprised to see severe cold this time of year actually verify than back off as we get closer. I'm more surprised about the anaemic southern stream that was supposed to be active, producing copious amounts of precipitation.I think it will, but it'll be in the form of rain showers mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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