Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion III

[Tacoma]

isn't it showing snow for wnc mtns.?  I believe 850's are good for wnc if the storm does take the right track.  might need it to tick a little further south to be on that heavy snow line on the northwest edge of the storm.  surprised there isn't more chatter about this.  Frank Strait on his blog thinks I40 and north of that line especially in the mtns. may see a good thumping of snow  on 3-3.  he said the cold should be in place for that storm on 3-3.  

[packfan98]

Well, we have three chances.  The problem is that close to zero + close to zero + close to zero = close to zero.

[Cold Rain]

This might be one of the driest active southern stream/split flows I have ever seen.  What a crock.  I think we've been had.

 

The cool pattern looks to remain generally in place in the LR.  As long as highs dropping continue to drop down out of Canada, with the cold that's present up there, at least parts of the SE are in the game.  The AO mostly looks negative in the LR.  The NAO continues to flatline at +1, and the PNA, now positive, looks to take a dip, before returning positive.  The CFS shows at or below normal for the SE with at or above normal precip.  And the MJO looks to go into Phase 8.

 

There is no real threat showing up on the models at this point.  Everything seems to dimish as we move in.  So barring any last minute surprise, this wet period will seem surprisingly dry.

[mackerel_sky]

This might be one of the driest active southern stream/split flows I have ever seen. What a crock. I think we've been had.

The cool pattern looks to remain generally in place in the LR. As long as highs dropping continue to drop down out of Canada, with the cold that's present up there, at least parts of the SE are in the game. The AO mostly looks negative in the LR. The NAO continues to flatline at +1, and the PNA, now positive, looks to take a dip, before returning positive. The CFS shows at or below normal for the SE with at or above normal precip. And the MJO looks to go into Phase 8.

There is no real threat showing up on the models at this point. Everything seems to dimish as we move in. So barring any last minute surprise, this wet period will seem surprisingly dry.

The dry split flow might just be a precursor to the start of a dry spring and summer?! We were truly blessed with rainfall last year and most every storm trended wetter or overperformed as we got closer. Having everything look good and juicy, then dry up as it gets here is a bad sign, IMO

[packfan98]

Anyone care to comment on the Euro ensembles?

[superjames1992]

Anyone care to comment on the Euro ensembles?

Honestly, they look great to me. There's lots of storms and a favorable pattern for the upper SE.

In fact, the mean snowfall for GSO is over 4" over the next 10 days. That's the highest total on the EPS mean since before the 2/12-2/13 storm. It is a fairly strong signal. Looks like strong signals for a coastal on 3/3 and 3/6 (the 4" potential didn't include this period). 3/1 looks okay if you're alright with seeing flakes fall with little, if any, accumulation.

Almost every member is onboard with something.

The means for RDU and CLT are at about 3.5".

[tarheelwx]

Too bad we can't get the good stuff on the weekend. TW

Edit: better during the week than not at all.

[Shawn]

To add to what James said about the 00z EPS... there are like 29 or 30 members with Winter weather even down in KCAE.  Most are extremely light though.. like "flurry" or trace of ice light.

 

Meh, not really a fan for us down here still... KGSP looks a bit better for a chance.

[superjames1992]

To add to what James said about the 00z EPS... there are like 29 or 30 members with Winter weather even down in KCAE. Most are extremely light though.. like "flurry" or trace of ice light.

Meh, not really a fan for us down here still.

Interesting. I didn't look at too many cities since it takes forever to load up on my phone, LOL. I will definitely be paying more attention to the 3/3 storm now. Perhaps it isn't a phantom storm.

[Shawn]

Interesting. I didn't look at too many cities since it takes forever to load up on my phone, LOL. I will definitely be paying more attention to the 3/3 storm now. Perhaps it isn't a phantom storm.

 

Well, it does look better EPS member wise than the earlier storm that had a slight chance.  If you're seeing almost every member on board and KCAE has 30 or so.. and ATL, GSP have many members on board.. then I feel NC definitely has a real shot around that time-frame.  I haven't looked at 850 temps or anything though... so not sure what form around the cities...even in NC.

[deltadog03]

Well guys and gals, this looks like its DOA!!  The pattern actually looks crappy!  Its a crying shame we cant get a better pattern around here after seeing whats just to our north.  Oh well, I will certainly take the rain.  

[superjames1992]

The 12z Canadian looks like a big-hitter for some on 3/3, pending temperatures.  The MSLP maps look good with a benchmark track with the SLP passing east of Cape Hatteras and then out to sea. EDIT: Looks icy, though.

 

The 3/6 storm looks decent, too.  Maybe snow to ice?  Unfortunately, the 1035 mb HP centered over PA at hr 216 with the SLP just south of Pensacola slides OTS by hr 228, but the low track is decent.

 

The 12z GFS took a positive step with the 3/3 storm, moving from a cutter towards a Miller B.  It's still a terrible solution for us, but baby steps...  It's kind of hard to see it cutting, IMO, but a Miller B is certainly on the table.  I'll lean towards a nice coastal the moment based on the EPS and because I'm a weenie that wants to side with the wintry scenario, though we could easily get screwed even there if the track is inland.

 

EDIT: The 3/3 storm's precip field isn't that expansive on the GGEM (precip maps just came out).  I'd like to lock this panel up for the 3/6 storm, though.  I'm not 100% sure on P-type for it, but it's juicy!  The 540 line is just south of the NC/VA border and it seems like we get snow with thicknesses in the 540-546 range quite a bit.  The setup looks icy just south of wherever the snow line is.

 

[SN_Lover]

euro ens if it were all snow..

 

[packfan98]

Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad  1m

There will be a few close calls for winter weather over the next 7days, main concerns will be for ice. #cltwx

[rduwx]

The 12 cmc looks icy for the NC cad areas for the 3/3 storm...850 line runs along the Va./NC border.  It doesn't look like 2m temps are cold enough for those south of NC.

 

On 3/5 the cmc is showing a major storm for our folks in Ga. and SC.  Verbatim it looks like ice but a lot of precip involved.  Of course still a long ways to go.  It could all be a mirage.

 

EDIT:  NC gets in on the storm on 3/5.  Also looks icy. 

[superjames1992]

The 12 cmc looks icy for the NC cad areas for the 3/3 storm...850 line runs along the Va./NC border.  It doesn't look like 2m temps are cold enough for those south of NC.

 

On 3/5 the cmc is showing a major storm for our folks in Ga. and SC.  Verbatim it looks like ice but a lot of precip involved.  Of course still a long ways to go.  It could all be a mirage.

 

EDIT:  NC gets in on the storm on 3/5.  Also looks icy. 

 

I just looked on WeatherBell now.  The 3/5 setup almost reminds me of the 2/13 storm.  The HP slides off the coast and we lose our cold air feed as the storm rides up the coast, changing us over from snow to ice.  Looks like a decent shot at significant snow before the changeover to me, though, as the 850 line moves northward.  At hr 216, the 850 mb line is at the NC/SC border and by hr 222, it's at the NC/VA border with a crap ton of precipitation having fallen in the interim.  Surface temperatures are well into the 20s in NC/upstate SC/NE GA and easily stay in the mid-20s in the hearty CAD regions of NC (GSO, INT, Statesville, etc.) from hr 204-240 (the end of the run).  That would be crazy for early March.

 

The Canadian gives us a repeat a day later with 850s cooling, too.

 

Why I am parsing a D9 model run?  I need help.

 

Like you said, the 3/3 event looks like some decent icing, as well.

[rduwx]

I just looked on WeatherBell now.  The 3/5 setup almost reminds me of the 2/13 storm.  The HP slides off the coast and we lose our cold air feed as the storm rides up the coast, changing us over from snow to ice.  Looks like a decent shot at significant snow before the changeover to me, though, as the 850 line moves northward.

 

The Canadian gives us a repeat a day later with 850s cooling, too.

 

I agree James, it does look a lot like the 2/13 storm.  Unfortunately it's back at the 9 days away point.  I just have a hard time believing that we won't get a storm out of one of these systems.  HP's constantly sliding east and split flow...One of these has to work out.

[superjames1992]

I agree James, it does look a lot like the 2/13 storm.  Unfortunately it's back at the 9 days away point.  I just have a hard time believing that we won't get a storm out of one of these systems.  HP's constantly sliding east and split flow...One of these has to work out.

 

We suck at snow, but we've got a ton of chances coming up.  If we don't connect on one of them for a little something, that willl be disappointing.  It looks like storm after storm in the first week of March (if the modeling can believed).  We shall see if the Euro stays consistent in a bit.

[Tacoma]

The 12z Canadian looks like a big-hitter for some on 3/3, pending temperatures.  The MSLP maps look good with a benchmark track with the SLP passing east of Cape Hatteras and then out to sea.

 

The 3/6 storm looks decent, too.  Maybe snow to ice?  Unfortunately, the 1035 mb HP centered over PA at hr 216 with the SLP just south of Pensacola slides OTS by hr 228, but the low track is decent.

 

The 12z GFS took a positive step with the 3/3 storm, moving from a cutter towards a Miller B.  It's still a terrible solution for us, but baby steps...  It's kind of hard to see it cutting, IMO, but a Miller B is certainly on the table.  I'll lean towards a nice coastal the moment based on the EPS and because I'm a weenie that wants to side with the wintry scenario, though we could easily get screwed even there if the track is inland.

 

EDIT: The 3/3 storm's precip field isn't that expansive on the GGEM (precip maps just came out).  I'd like to lock this panel up for the 3/6 storm, though.  I'm not 100% sure on P-type for it, but it's juicy!  The 540 line is just south of the NC/VA border and it seems like we get snow with thicknesses in the 540-546 range quite a bit.  The setup looks icy just south of wherever the snow line is.

 

now this looks like a great storm track for folks in nc to me, puts us just on that northwest side of the storm.  wouldn't take much to drag colder air down from the northeast with that track.   Big wet heavy snowfall.

[Shawn]

Yep.  GGEM nails almost all of SC with a nasty mix/ice deal.  EW.

 

Edit by 240, another ice for the Northern half of SC through the Midlands upward.

[GaWx]

Reminder: This is merely the very unreliable and constantly changing Crazy Uncle (GGEM) days 9-10 without other models having big storm.

[Cold Rain]

That little wave on the Euro at 96 looks fairly robust....

 

Edit:  Looks like it Mehs out at 120.

[rduwx]

12z euro showing some light sprinkles for the SE on on 3/1. Sprinkles, not flurries...LOL!

[Shawn]

12z euro showing some light sprinkles for the SE on on 3/1. Sprinkles, not flurries...LOL!

 

1044 HP could cause some havoc in future frames though.  We'll see.

 

Edit.. well  maybe not.

[superjames1992]

Reminder: This is merely the very unreliable and constantly changing Crazy Uncle (GGEM) days 9-10 without other models having big storm.

 

The Euro has big storm(s) in the D7-D10 period (pending the 12z run, of course), as well, with good ensemble support.

 

--------------

 

LOL, 3/1 is really turning into a disaster.  What a sheared out POS.

[packbacker]

The Euro has big storm(s) in the D7-D10 period (pending the 12z run, of course), as well, with good ensemble support.

 

--------------

 

LOL, 3/1 is really turning into a disaster.  What a sheared out POS.

 

And the 3/3 event is a big cutter, hopefully it cuts to Ohio and at least gives us a warm rain.

[GaWx]

The Euro has big storm(s) in the D7-D10 period (pending the 12z run, of course), as well, with good ensemble support.

 

 I'm talking about GA/SC, not NC. The 0Z Euro op. has essentially nothing wintry for nearly all of GA/SC days 7-10 vs. the Crazy Uncle's major ZR/mix and keeping in mind the inferiority of the Crazy Uncle (thus the nickname).

[Cold Rain]

Unless we get some sort of last minute resurrection of one of these little guys, I honestly think we're done until the dates of my deleted thread, 3/11 - 3/13.

[packbacker]

 I'm talking about GA/SC, not NC. The 0Z Euro op. has essentially nothing wintry for nearly all of GA/SC days 7-10 vs. the Crazy Uncle's major ZR/mix and keeping in mind the inferiority of the Crazy Uncle (thus the nickname).

 

The 12z Euro has nothing wintery through the next 8 days for anyone south of Philly, big OV cutter, we are in the mid 50's on Sunday and mid 60's on Monday…woohoo, Spring won't be denied.  It has close to 70F in all of GA/SC, almost 80F in south GA.

[superjames1992]

And the 3/3 event is a big cutter, hopefully it cuts to Ohio and at least gives us a warm rain.

 

Ugh, yeah.  Big change from prior runs.  Is it right?  I don't know.  Time to step away from the models for a few days.  3/1 looks like a failure and 2/26 is probably just going to be cold/dry.  I'm still interested in the 3/3-3/6 period, but that's so far out that it's almost pointless to look.  I guess the EPS might shed some light on this later on.

 

Looks like the follow-up storm is going to cut, too, as the pattern goes into train-wreck mode.  Oh, well.  Got to love how one run gives you a massive snow/ice storm and 12 hours later, we're getting warm rain and even portions of the NE are getting rain.  I guess that's just an example of why to not pay much attention to deterministic models at this range.

 

 I'm talking about GA/SC, not NC. The 0Z Euro op. has essentially nothing wintry for nearly all of GA/SC days 7-10 vs. the Crazy Uncle's major ZR/mix and keeping in mind the inferiority of the Crazy Uncle (thus the nickname).

 

Ah, okay, I understand.

 

EDIT: Well, the 18z NAM is back onboard for the 2/26 flizzard.

 

And the 12z EPS mean indicates a Miller B, FWIW...

 

All members must not be in agreement, though, as GSO still shows ~2.25", though that's a decent deal less than last night's run.  CLT and RDU are ~1.75".  Most members still show something.