NGA WINTER Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 This place is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The 00z Euro takes a substantial jog south with the 3/3 storm and delivers a substantial snow-to-ice storm for much of NC. It's close to staying all-snow for N NC, but it's a hair too warm (not that it matters much 8+ days out). It's actually a big ice storm, verbatim. The surface low tracks from the FL panhandle up to around Myrtle Beach. It was another 100 miles further inland at 12z, so the trend is our friend here. It actually might stay all-snow for places like Mt. Airy and Boone. Even the icy areas might change back over to snow again as it moves out. The clown nicely puts down 7-8" here, but a lot of that is likely IP and/or ZR. It is a decent 6-10" hit for DC and most of VA. Shift the track another 50-100 miles east and a lot of us are making snow angels and snowmen in a winter wonderland, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 not looking good when its this quite on here. when I get up and see we're still on the same page as last night I know we're in trouble as far as snow. OH WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 GGEM with another ice storm here in the Midlands per 00z. Yeah, not again. I'll pass on any Winter weather to not deal with it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 12z NAM still looks interesting at hour 75. Not a lot of precip but it looks like snow fro at least northern and western NC/SC: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif RAH also keeping the door open for something wintery in this time period and also for Friday. THERE CONTINUES TO BE AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF WINTERY PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NW)... AND THEN AGAIN IN THE CLIMO PREFERRED AREAS OF THE NW ZONES LATE FRI-SAT. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE BEST MOISTURE (OR PRECIPIATION SHIELD) WITH BOTH POTENTIAL SYSTEMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Euro ensembles actually support the OP this time. More snow members for the 2/26 event. Euro is trying to figure it out. For March 1st at RDU, mean is 2.4" OP is 3.5" or so. 6 events over 6" and 1 big dog. Contrast that with the last run, 3 events over 6" and 1 big dog. And the 00z run before that, 3 events over 6" no big dog. Euro still having trouble with how cold it's going to get after 144 hours, which obviously is an important time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Well, I think its time to punt this one....I hope it changes, but I just don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Well, I think its time to punt this one....I hope it changes, but I just don't see it. Looks bleak, every run of the GFS the HP coming down from Canada is slower and further NW, 12z run is a coastal for NE. It's been a solid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Looks bleak, every run of the GFS the HP coming down from Canada is slower and further NW, 12z run is a coastal for NE. It's been a solid winter.Maybe the cold is slowing down to make 3/3 the "one" part duh! If the cold keeps getting pushed back and less impressive, we are in big trouble if we want wintry weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 FWIW Euro ensemble mean showing pretty impressive sig for east coast trough, west coast ridge building valid March 10th. I know it's an infinite days out, but it's been showing up for several runs now and it's an ensemble mean. So, pattern repeat? It's been the the trend all winter. Maybe one of these perfect timing systems will work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 These models seem to match up with the long range ensemble you were talking about a week or so ago. We may be in for long term wintry cold and stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'll take my chances with a split flow. It's winter still, and it gets cold in winter. With water running underneath...well, it's winter still. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Surprised not to see 12z Euro talk on here -- Day 6 map looked great for I-40 folks and just 2C away from I85 -- upper features improved. The surface high that had been stuck in Canada was down in northern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Surprised not to see 12z Euro talk on here -- Day 6 map looked great for I-40 folks and just 2C away from I85 -- upper features improved. The surface high that had been stuck in Canada was down in northern U.S. It's not bad for folks west of say GSO/INT, to warm for everyone east of that. Hopefully this can trend into a stronger coastal and at least give the foothills/mtns a nice event. The 3/3 potential looks the same as the 3/1 event, nice MA to NE coastal snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 If you're looking for trends, the 12z Euro was a step in the right direction for 3/1. Probably a hair too warm for many of us, but it's not too far away and there was more precip, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 00z Euro - Major snow to ice storm on 3/3 for NC. Great snowstorm for S VA-northwards... fairly close to the 00z run. Nice CAD. There might be an inch or two of snow for some on the front end before a changeover to ~0.50" liquid equivalent of ZR/IP. Surface temperatures are in the 20s for GSO verbatim and stay below freezing for RDU. CLT looks a little too warm. A 1044 mb HP is working its way into southern Iowa at the end of the run... Winter isn't done yet, per the Euro. Three chances for snow over the next 10 days. Surely, we can get lucky and connect with one of those for at least a few flakes. EDIT: Actually, it looks like the Euro might be about to destroy NC/TN at around D11 and D12 if you could extrapolate it. Wow. K/U storm. I'm all-in for the 3/3 storm and the 3/6 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 00z Euro - Major snow to ice storm on 3/3 for NC. Great snowstorm for S VA-northwards... fairly close to the 00z run. Nice CAD. There might be an inch or two of snow for some on the front end before a changeover to ~0.50" liquid equivalent of ZR/IP. Surface temperatures are in the 20s for GSO verbatim and stay below freezing for RDU. CLT looks a little too warm. A 1044 mb HP is working its way into southern Iowa at the end of the run... Winter isn't done yet, per the Euro. Three chances for snow over the next 10 days. Surely, we can get lucky and connect with one of those for at least a few flakes. EDIT: Actually, it looks like the Euro might be about to destroy NC/TN at around D11 and D12 if you could extrapolate it. Wow. K/U storm. I'm all-in for the 3/3 storm and the 3/6 storm. these storms keep sucking us in 9 and 10 days out like 2-28 and 3-1 storms and then nothing. then we start over again with another 9-10 days, don't get me wrong its fun tracking these storms but I'm hoping we can cash in before our chances are gone due to the sun angle and the modifying cold air from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 these storms keep sucking us in 9 and 10 days out like 2-28 and 3-1 storms and then nothing. then we start over again with another 9-10 days, don't get me wrong its fun tracking these storms but I'm hoping we can cash in before our chances are gone due to the sun angle and the modifying cold air from the north. Don't worry about the day 10. Even though the models are not picture perfect as far as the details right now the grand scheme of things is supportive of snowfall this week into next weekend. Not going to say for the whole SE but most of NC espcially the mountains. What does look certain Cold suppressed flow Over running begins Monday night/Tues 2 waves of LP one Tues night/Wednesday and one again around the 3/1 timeframe. GFS,Euro,CMC,Nam all point to snow imo Tues night judging by the temps aloft and RH fields suggesting larger precip shields and heavier qpf potential then what is being shown. The 0c 850 line is making slow progress SE. The front tomorrow night should push the line south along the NC/SC border then should see a slight rebound in warmer temps aloft into NE NC as the wave Tuesday night pushes through and eventually clears the coast. Once the storm clears the coast colder air will push back south before the next one... which its still too far out to pay much attention too. But its coming together slowly but surely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Don't worry about the day 10. Even though the models are not picture perfect as far as the details right now the grand scheme of things is supportive of snowfall this week into next weekend. Not going to say for the whole SE but most of NC espcially the mountains. What does look certain Cold suppressed flow Over running begins Monday night/Tues 2 waves of LP one Tues night/Wednesday and one again around the 3/1 timeframe. GFS,Euro,CMC,Nam all point to snow imo Tues night judging by the temps aloft and RH fields suggesting larger precip shields and heavier qpf potential then what is being shown. The 0c 850 line is making slow progress SE. The front tomorrow night should push the line south along the NC/SC border then should see a slight rebound in warmer temps aloft into NE NC as the wave Tuesday night pushes through and eventually clears the coast. Once the storm clears the coast colder air will push back south before the next one... which its still too far out to pay much attention too. But its coming together slowly but surely. hope your right ncweather. I read GSP before I wrote that and it didn't sound promising unless GSP is staying on the light end of the precip. and doesn't want to go to the high end possibilities. I know GSP was saying could be a winter weather advisory event tuesday night for the nc mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 It's the same kind of over running trend that parleyed into two frozen events for me already, regardless of how light. Winter isn't over yet, and won't be until April T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Don't dismiss April for snow. I found this in the notes on Van Denton's Facebook page: April 2-3, 1915 (2 days before Easter) 6-8 inches of snow in the Triad Raleigh had 10 inches (this still stands as the 8th heaviest snowfall on record for Raleigh) April 18, 1983 (my 18th birthday :-) ) Dusting of snow over much of the Piedmont. RDU had more than 1 inch April 11, 1989....no snow over the Triad....but in Eastern NC, there was a good 2-4 inch snow from near Little Washington up into Martin and Bertie counties (just east of Greenville where 1-2 inches fell). April 6, 2007.....Dusting of snow over the Piedmont on a Friday night...similar to 1915, this was only days before Easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 these storms keep sucking us in 9 and 10 days out like 2-28 and 3-1 storms and then nothing. then we start over again with another 9-10 days, don't get me wrong its fun tracking these storms but I'm hoping we can cash in before our chances are gone due to the sun angle and the modifying cold air from the north. I guess we will find out if winter is hanging on or if the models are crying wolf. One thing is it seems they have not cried wolf as often this winter as in other recent winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The Euro Ensembles look pretty decent for the 3/3 threat, FWIW. The mean doesn't show huge totals, but it's pretty solid for D8. The 3/1 threat is pretty meh. There's some snow on the means, but it's mostly less than an inch for most cities. The 2/26 event shows up as 0.5" SN on the means for GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Personally after these model runs lately.. I'm not really feeling any Winter storms of any signifigance anymore. There's a couple runs that are hit and miss, but down in the deep South; we are probably going to remain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Personally after these model runs lately.. I'm not really feeling any Winter storms of any signifigance anymore. There's a couple runs that are hit and miss, but down in the deep South; we are probably going to remain rain. This is usually the case here The end of Feb, first of Mar, is when I start looking for signs that will point to an extended spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Don't dismiss April for snow. I found this in the notes on Van Denton's Facebook page: April 2-3, 1915 (2 days before Easter) 6-8 inches of snow in the Triad Raleigh had 10 inches (this still stands as the 8th heaviest snowfall on record for Raleigh) April 18, 1983 (my 18th birthday :-) ) Dusting of snow over much of the Piedmont. RDU had more than 1 inch April 11, 1989....no snow over the Triad....but in Eastern NC, there was a good 2-4 inch snow from near Little Washington up into Martin and Bertie counties (just east of Greenville where 1-2 inches fell). April 6, 2007.....Dusting of snow over the Piedmont on a Friday night...similar to 1915, this was only days before Easter Lets look at that. For us in the Triad that describes 2 dustings, one nothing, and one good snow 99 years ago. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say it will not snow in the Triad in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Lets look at that. For us in the Triad that describes 2 dustings, one nothing, and one good snow 99 years ago. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say it will not snow in the Triad in April.It's ok, you witnessed the biggest one in 1915, so you are lucky! Friday looks wet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 It's ok, you witnessed the biggest one in 1915, so you are lucky! Friday looks wet! I missed it. I was at the Panama-California Exposition in San Diego, CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The 00z Euro is a whiff on 2/26 with no interaction between the southern and northern streams (but it appears to be cold enough for N NC). The 00z Euro drops ~1" of snow across a good portion of NC on the morning of 3/1. Temperatures look alright for the northern half of the state, but precip is on the light side. The storm kind of falls apart as it heads eastward. 3/3 is a massive ice storm for NC's CAD regions (too warm for GA/SC). 1"+ of ZR/IP... nasty. The low tracks from C AL to C GA to around Elizabeth City, NC. It is a 12"+ K/U snow event for the Mid-Atlantic. The kind Euro clown shows 10.4" here... too bad it's really ZR and IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The 00z Euro is a whiff on 2/26 with no interaction between the southern and northern streams (but it appears to be cold enough for N NC). The 00z Euro drops ~1" of snow across a good portion of NC on the morning of 3/1. Temperatures look alright for the northern half of the state, but precip is on the light side. The storm kind of falls apart as it heads eastward. 3/3 is a massive ice storm for NC's CAD regions (too warm for GA/SC). 1"+ of ZR/IP... nasty. The low tracks from C AL to C GA to around Elizabeth City, NC. It is a 12"+ K/U snow event for the Mid-Atlantic. The kind Euro clown shows 10.4" here... too bad it's really ZR and IP. Is that not another ice setup at 240 as well. Cheap maps show a prominent cad signature. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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