WidreMann Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 All of them did, really. Ug. Can't we get one consolidated system?7 days out. This is not the time to get concerned or excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 7 days out. This is not the time to get concerned or excited. Ha! We live in the SE. Being concerned is the default position. I do not want the Euro to start wavering on the Miller A idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro ENS mean is colder, SLP more SE than 0z, see what tomorrow has. Also, the March 4-5 deal is trying to get south. No longer the big cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 FWIW, this just popped up on Facebook... U.S. National Weather Service shared NOAA NWS Weather Prediction Center's photo. Another potential for snow for the East Coast mid-week! Here's our medium range forecast for fronts/pressures. Check our more info on our medium range page: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 FWIW, this just popped up on Facebook... U.S. National Weather Service shared NOAA NWS Weather Prediction Center's photo. Another potential for snow for the East Coast mid-week! Here's our medium range forecast for fronts/pressures. Check our more info on our medium range page: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml Yeah this event has been showing up just looks rather weak and also has temp problems for the SE so definitely cannot evolve into a big dog type snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Models are all over the place from run to run, and one shows snow to ice for NC. Sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Sound familiar? That's what the last event had at this range. 18z gfs also has the same type look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 GSP afternoon discussion seems like alot of uncertainties abound! Both the midweek and late week systems could be nothing to wintry precip!? Alot of model watching lies ahead for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The track of the low looks pretty good on the 18z gfs. 850's on the other hand.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The track of the low looks pretty good on the 18z gfs. 850's on the other hand.... The HP to the north is much weaker on the 18z than the 12z GFS. And it's the Op GFS at day 7. 18z GFS 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I think the GFS struggled with the last storm as has been stated. The CMC and Euro are kind of on the same page so far with this threat. Give it three or four days and maybe the GFS will come around. Right now, keep your eyes on the Euro and it's ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 RAH keeping the door open for something wintery: **man first time I've posted in a while. Last storm was exhausting** ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY... AND POTENTIAL SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF UP THE SE COAST. MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE WITH DETAILS CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM...WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE. THE LATEST GFS...WHICH AT THIS TIME LACKS CONTINUITY...WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS...WHILE THE EC WOULD NOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 BTW, the 12z Euro Control Run is decent for NC. RDU, GSO, and CLT get fringed with some light snow with 850s cold enough and surface temperatures well below freezing. Looks to be a decent hit for NE NC. It's too warm for SC/GA. TN is cold enough, but there's no precip. The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is similar. It's cold enough for portions of NC, but there's just not a lot of precip at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 BTW, the 12z Euro Control Run is decent for NC. RDU, GSO, and CLT get fringed with some light snow with 850s cold enough and surface temperatures well below freezing. Looks to be a decent hit for NE NC. It's too warm for SC/GA. TN is cold enough, but there's no precip. The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is similar. It's cold enough for portions of NC, but there's just not a lot of precip at the moment. For the midweek or endweek threat? Our local guy 7 day outlook showed 54 as the coldest high through Saturday ! He must be going with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 For the midweek or endweek threat? Our local guy 7 day outlook showed 54 as the coldest high through Saturday ! He must be going with the GFS I'm talking about the end-week threat. I guess the mid-week threat is still possible, but it's hard to get excited about it with its bountiful BL issues in addition to 850 mb temperature issues. The 12z Canadian is a shame. In many ways it looks good, but it's a downright torch. Not sure I buy that, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro ENS mean is colder, SLP more SE than 0z, see what tomorrow has. The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is similar. It's cold enough for portions of NC, but there's just not a lot of precip at the moment. The wave was a bit weaker on this run of the Euro Ensemble for 3/1...it didn't amplify as much as it moved into the SE...thus, the sfc low was not as close to the SE coast as previous run. On the flip side, it was a little colder with a bit more sfc high pressure over the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 yay! Euro is rainy around here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 If I remember correctly the gfs didn't start getting a grasp on temperatures until 3-4 days before the last event. The one thing we have going for us is there isn't a low around the lakes. Right now I'm pleased at where we are in this stage of the game. Hopefully the high will trend stronger and be positioned more favorably to lock in cad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 GSP afternoon discussion seems like alot of uncertainties abound! Both the midweek and late week systems could be nothing to wintry precip!? Alot of model watching lies ahead for everyone! Last Gasp... almost. How long was that Mac breathing in your arms before it gave up. Never say never. Early 80s' in Charlotte mid-March - I was mowing the lawn (my athletic body tanned - fems honking)... Spring had sprung! A week later ...Bammm!!!! My tan looked most excellent against 10" of snow! Glory days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 18z GFS Ensemble members on ewall for the southeast as a whole... 2 of 12 - good snow hit 5 of 12 - wintry mix hit KInd of represents the probabilities we are looking at right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Last Gasp... almost. How long was that Mac breathing in your arms before it gave up. Never say never. Early 80s' in Charlotte mid-March - I was mowing the lawn (my athletic body tanned - fems honking)... Spring had sprung! A week later ...Bammm!!!! My tan looked most excellent against 10" of snow! Glory days. I'm not giving up , it's just frustrating that the models can't even get the cold air right, 7 days out. The euro looks cold and suppressed , now the GFS is warmer, I think the CMC is warmer? You can't line and die by every model run. If all that amazing cold air showing up gets locked up in the Great Lakes and NE, and can't make it down South, I think winter is over! If you were talking about the fish in my avatar, unfortunately , it was just a carp, and he is happily still swimming in the pond where he was caught, after a quick photo! He also weighed 27.4 lbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Im starting to think our climo is going to win out here...just like last year. Last year we had blocking out the ying yang in march but could only get "cool". Not cold enough to snow. Im thinking we get a good storm as the pattern lends itself to but its just not cold enough. Well see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Im starting to think our climo is going to win out here...just like last year. Last year we had blocking out the ying yang in march but could only get "cool". Not cold enough to snow. Im thinking we get a good storm as the pattern lends itself to but its just not cold enough. Well see. I don't know... I know what you mean, but climo suggests that the last part of February and first week of March is a pretty good time to get winter storms, especially in the foothills and mountains (and even here). It's interesting, though. I'm only using Wikipedia so I am not 100% sure how accurate these monthly averages are (I'm not aware of another free source that has monthly averages, but I may be missing one), but I notice a distinct difference between the snowfall averages in March for GSO, CLT, and RDU, which is kind of surprising given how close they are to one another. For CLT and RDU, the snowfall average decreases from 1.3" to 0.6" and 2.0" to 0.5" from February to March, respectively, but for GSO the decline is much less noticeable with the average declining only from 2.5" to 1.7" from February to March. I don't know whether this result is particularly statistically significant and it might be that this largely results from a few isolated events (GSO did fairly well in March '93 with 5.7" while RDU and CLT got less, for example). Interesting. In any case, this time period delivered in March 2009 and March 2010, so I'm not too down based on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 For the midweek or endweek threat? Our local guy 7 day outlook showed 54 as the coldest high through Saturday ! He must be going with the GFS The GFS is a joke currently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Last year, there was no cold on our side of the globe. The. Whole. Winter. That's why the blocking didn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Im starting to think our climo is going to win out here...just like last year. Last year we had blocking out the ying yang in march but could only get "cool". Not cold enough to snow. Im thinking we get a good storm as the pattern lends itself to but its just not cold enough. Well see. NWS has put snow and freezing rain in my forecast for Friday night with a low of 30 degrees. They are seeing this potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Last Gasp... almost. How long was that Mac breathing in your arms before it gave up. Never say never. Early 80s' in Charlotte mid-March - I was mowing the lawn (my athletic body tanned - fems honking)... Spring had sprung! A week later ...Bammm!!!! My tan looked most excellent against 10" of snow! Glory days. You must mean this one...it was a good one we had 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 soooo IIRC the 0z euro is out now. no one is saying anything. that cant be a good sign. even if it is 5+ days out. hows the 0z euro looking, guys?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 soooo IIRC the 0z euro is out now. no one is saying anything. that cant be a good sign. even if it is 5+ days out. hows the 0z euro looking, guys?! The Euro actually brings back hope for the Brick Tamland Storm on 2/26 and puts down a stripe of 1"+ across portions of NC. The clown actually puts down 2-3" from INT and GSO over towards Roxboro, though I'm not sure about that. Hug it. The 2/28-3/1 storm won't be out for awhile yet. EDIT: The 2/28-3/1 storm is a nice snow event for most of TN and maybe some light snow over portions of NC. Temperatures are marginal, but cold enough at 850 mb for the northern half of NC (surface temps probably suck with the lack of precip, though). It kind of falls apart as it heads eastward as precip is minimal over NC. EDIT #2: The Euro control run is a nice snowstorm from NE GA/SW NC towards CLT to GSO and RDU northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 not sure how much I like this anymore. I know we have time for sure, just IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.