calculus1 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 On 3/1, for roughly I-40 north (I know, I know, the weather can't read interstate signs...), the GFS seems to indicate snow changing over to sleet/freezing rain at the end. South of that line there appears to be significant amounts of sleet/freezing rain. I have not looked at any sounding data. This is just preliminary analysis based off of rough maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yeah, this looks like the gfs gradually seeing the light. Big step here. remember for the last storm how it lost the storm til just couple of days before it? Also NC gets a nice hit with variety. I think your right...GFS is trying to see the storm now. I would imagine we have a legit player on the field. I am worried about the 850's thought. PLENTY of time to watch, of course, but I would 2m should be much colder for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yeah the GFS is a step in the right direction. 850 temps would be supportive of snow to ip/zr for N GA Western SC then gradually warming for mixing issues in Southern NC. But generally looking roughly from Asheville to Fayettville north could be all snow with mixing at the end possibly but basing the look at the h7 level. There is a weak 850 low that tracks through Northern MS,AL,GA. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 CMC is bigger storm but rain for most. Ready to stick the fork in this one, the cold air just isn't around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECUPiratewx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Nice that a couple of other models show something very similar (CMC and JMA). Would like to see GFS and UK show something come Sunday 12z runs. NAVGEM does have a nice vort, fairly suppressed but it's nice it showing a strong vort 7-8 days out. One thing we won't have to worry about with this "potential" event is cold air, just need the precip. CMC is bigger storm but rain for most. Ready to stick the fork in this one, the cold air just isn't around. lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I think 7 days out is too early to get the forks out! The "one" we just had looked off a week out with wired Great Lakes lows that were not there when storm time got here! We know the cold air is around , but whether or not it makes it down far enough for most, is the question. Model agreement on a storm is good for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I think 7 days out is too early to get the forks out! The "one" we just had looked off a week out with wired Great Lakes lows that were not there when storm time got here! We know the cold air is around , but whether or not it makes it down far enough for most, is the question. Model agreement on a storm is good for now! LOL, I was joking, evidently it didn't go over very well. Yesterday it did look like the cold was going to be pressing much further south, but now that it's not its allowing the storm to stay stronger. When looking at day 7 setup on the GFS, I am surprised it's not colder though, 1040+ over the lakes should be able to get it done. Edit: Compare to the 0z run, HP on 12z much stronger and further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 CMC is bigger storm but rain for most. Ready to stick the fork in this one, the cold air just isn't around.I actually like the Canadian better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I actually like the Canadian better. You want a cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The GFS run wasn't bad for NC... snow to ice. Not perfect, but it's a huge change from the previous disastrous runs. Interesting, if nothing else. Yeah, the EPS mean is a little too warm for NC for much of the storm, but it's not too far off. The 850 mb 0C isotherm runs along a line from Richmond to Boone and then Mt. Airy later on. 850s on the Canadian look similar to the EPS mean, maybe a tick colder. It would probably be all-snow in the NC mountains, TN, and maybe into the western foothills (going off 850s, anyways), but there's not a lot of precipitation that makes it that far west. The 3C isotherm hangs out around Raleigh for much of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 You want a cold rain?the Canadian was not a cold rain for the mtns. Thats not what I was talking about anyway. I like the 500mb setup better than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 LOL, I was joking, evidently it didn't go over very well. Yesterday it did look like the cold was going to be pressing much further south, but now that it's not its allowing the storm to stay stronger. When looking at day 7 setup on the GFS, I am surprised it's not colder though, 1040+ over the lakes should be able to get it done. Edit: Compare to the 0z run, HP on 12z much stronger and further south Yeah thats true espeically with the damming signature. There is a good amount of dry air too ahead of the storm... with - single digits and single digit dps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 You give me a 1040 high over the Lakes with the kind of cold that's up in Canada and a Miller A running through the south, coming off the coast if GA/SC, and I'm making snowmen all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 the Canadian was not a cold rain for the mtns. Thats not what I was talking about anyway. I like the 500mb setup better than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 You give me a 1040 high over the Lakes with the kind of cold that's up in Canada and a Miller A running through the south, coming off the coast if GA/SC, and I'm making snowmen all day. The GEFS mean is much colder but the SLP is much more suppressed, but at this range, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epps88 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Cant wait to see what euro shows!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Cant wait to see what euro shows!! My favorite the NAVGEM is close to a nice hit, actually not to warm either, has the 850 line running down I-40 give or take, and it's always warm, it was very warm with the mid-Feb event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I'll take it, Pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 You give me a 1040 high over the Lakes with the kind of cold that's up in Canada and a Miller A running through the south, coming off the coast if GA/SC, and I'm making snowmen all day. True that. Its one thing about it nam,gfs, euro, cmc have been showing a large sprawling banana HP most of next week. So the cold is there. With such a cold dense air mass the cold should be able to push pretty far south starting with the frontal passage monday afternoon/night. Then that kicks off the over running snow for N/W NC Wednesday leading up to next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 your map shows snow at the border and dry for the rest of the mtns. The 850 freezing line stays southeast of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 your map shows snow at the border and dry for the rest of the mtns. The 850 freezing line stays southeast of the mtns. Your right, I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Your right, I was wrong.its really not worth discussing as it will change next run.Euro should look better as its higher resolution should show a stronger southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 You give me a 1040 high over the Lakes with the kind of cold that's up in Canada and a Miller A running through the south, coming off the coast if GA/SC, and I'm making snowmen all day. GFS raw output data for our area would have surface temps below freezing (27-30 degrees) throughout the entire event. 850's at 0C to +1C and 925's at -3C to start, dropping to -5C. This sounding is a sleet-fest mixed with snow at times. Also, the GFS gives us 0.50" of liquid. That's not a bad set-up this far out. However, as CR mentioned, I think the track of the low and the frigid source region argues for a colder solution. I am still concerned about suppression. In late February and early March it takes a strong high pressure to provide air that is cold enough for us to get a good winter storm. This one is strong enough as modeled but if the low pressure system does not amplify at the right time, it will slide harmlessly out to sea, leaving most of the SE with cold and dry weather. It's a delicate dance this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The 12z Euro is coming in quite a bit colder so far. This might be a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The 12z Euro is coming in quite a bit colder so far. This might be a good run. It is, but has this dual low thing going on day 7 or so off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 It is, but has this dual low thing going on day 7 or so off the SE coast. Sound familiar? That's what the last event had at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Sound familiar? That's what the last event had at this range. Euro did or the GFS? Can't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 All of them did, really. Ug. Can't we get one consolidated system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 It is, but has this dual low thing going on day 7 or so off the SE coast. Yeah, that's a bit odd. Looks like N AL and N GA and perhaps C SC might get some snow. We're cold enough, but there's no precip that really makes it to NC. Not sure whether to buy that dual low look, though. On to the next run... at least the cold is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 All of them did, really. Ug. Can't we get one consolidated system? Yeah, that's a bit odd. Looks like N AL and N GA and perhaps C SC might get some snow. We're cold enough, but there's no precip that really makes it to NC. Not sure whether to buy that dual low look, though. On to the next run... at least the cold is back. Still 7 days out, hopefully tomorrow's 12z run shows something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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