SnowNiner Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Sooo.....we went from suppression to too warm in one run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY WED AFTERNOON AS DRY AND COLD CANADIANHIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SPINS UP A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND PUSHES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE THE GFS HAS DISORGANIZED FEATURE. ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH TO OUR SOUTH BEYOND DAY 7. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED DRY FORECAST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE AND FALL BELOW NORMAL BY WED AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. GSP also "hints" at something beyond their 7 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Sooo.....we went from suppression to too warm in one run? Haha, yep! That's winter in the SE for ya. For the last few days, it hasn't looked like cold would be a problem at all. Could be a blip...hopefully? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Good run of the Euro Ensemble with the wave for 3/1...wave is allowed to amplify a bit as it tracks into the SE...sfc low tracks across the northern gulf to right off the GA coast. Temps not as cold as mentioned. WPC liked a Carolina coastal in their disco last night BY DAY 7...DOWNSTREAM...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGRATING THROUGH THESOUTHEAST...BEGINS TO SHAPE UP INTO A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONEOFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Haha, yep! That's winter in the SE for ya. For the last few days, it hasn't looked like cold would be a problem at all. Could be a blip...hopefully? I think Packbacker mentioned yesterday that we wouldn't have to worry about temps, just precip with this one...I was thinking, man, I'll go to my grave worrying about temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Good run of the Euro Ensemble with the wave for 3/1...wave is allowed to amplify a bit as it tracks into the SE...sfc low tracks across the northern gulf to right off the GA coast. Temps not as cold as mentioned. WPC liked a Carolina coastal in their disco last night BY DAY 7...DOWNSTREAM...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGRATING THROUGH THESOUTHEAST...BEGINS TO SHAPE UP INTO A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONEOFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. this would be a perfect track for wnc to cash in also, plus looks like the cold is in the wnc area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I think Packbacker mentioned yesterday that we wouldn't have to worry about temps, just precip with this one...I was thinking, man, I'll go to my grave worrying about temperatures Yeah, that is true. That's why I'd always rather see a suppressed look over a tight track at longer leads. Temps are always the first concern for me. It has looked like the cold would be firmly in place by Friday, though. Not sure why that decided to change last night. Hopefully, we'll see it come back. I like the placement of the high on the CMC....and the strength. That will just about get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Sooo.....we went from suppression to too warm in one run? I was never really concerned about supression or temps for that matter, but looks like I was wrong on the temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I think Packbacker mentioned yesterday that we wouldn't have to worry about temps, just precip with this one...I was thinking, man, I'll go to my grave worrying about temperatures LOL, with 1040+ HP stretch from the lakes to pole it seemed very reasonable that the cold would be there, but I guess I was wrong. I forgot we lived in central NC and it will be March :-(. It would be funny if we got a drenching 34F rain and the MA added onto there fabulous winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Delta, Per the 0Z GGEM, you're getting a mix verbatim although snow is very close and that track suggests snow to me fwiw. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=192&fixhh=1&hh=180 The prior frame suggests snow at Jackson: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=180&fixhh=1&hh=168 Edit: 0z King warmer with cold rain for 2/28-3/1 for Columbus to NCN to AGS to CAE to FVL but at least Miller still there. TY Larry ya cmc rn/sn but king is a cold rain as you said I am just glad the low is still showing up as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yeah, that is true. That's why I'd always rather see a suppressed look over a tight track at longer leads. Temps are always the first concern for me. It has looked like the cold would be firmly in place by Friday, though. Not sure why that decided to change last night. Hopefully, we'll see it come back. I like the placement of the high on the CMC....and the strength. That will just about get it done. With the 0z run, the Euro suite keeps the PV stretched out to the west, elongated across the bulk of southern Canada except for the western part. This keeps the parent high farther northwest up in Canada...but the flow relaxes to our north and our wave is allowed to amplify a bit into the SE. Always a delicate dance of storm + cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The 00z Euro seems like a combination of problems with the evolving PV and track combined, which would translate to terrible 850's. The 00z Euro is colder at 850 (up north) and PV actually sticks around longer which is what we would want normally, but what I noticed on the 12z yesterday is the PV ejects NE and that translates into an influx of below 0C 850s into NC and the timing of the storm seems to just set up decently (if we had a good track it would be a big dog). The fact that the PV is colder on the 00z is a good sign, but it's a little too wound up, so all the cold is staying north of us and since it's not exciting at time of precip, we don't have any cold to work with, so we'll see what happens on the new 12z. Also the fact that the storm is trending later makes it even worse as far as getting consistent runs. Timing will be as important with this storm as any storm we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 With the 0z run, the Euro suite keeps the PV stretched out to the west, elongated across the bulk of southern Canada except for the western part. This keeps the parent high farther northwest up in Canada...but the flow relaxes to our north and our wave is allowed to amplify a bit into the SE. Always a delicate dance of storm + cold. Yeah. We'll probably see more looks yet. I think SE winter weather fans invented the phrase, "Thread the needle." And Pack, you're not wrong yet. Long way to go to see how this one evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 With the 0z run, the Euro suite keeps the PV stretched out to the west, elongated across the bulk of southern Canada except for the western part. This keeps the parent high farther northwest up in Canada...but the flow relaxes to our north and our wave is allowed to amplify a bit into the SE. Always a delicate dance of storm + cold. On a good note. the 00z UKmet at 144hrs doesn’t have a lobe of the PV migrating over western Canada like the Euro does; consequently, the area of high pressure is centered farther to the east and looks like it would provide much colder air for our area if the southern stream wave was to throw any precip up our way. Also... notice the nice block setting up over greenland at 144hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Sooo.....we went from suppression to too warm in one run? The thing is about the suppression its a wave in the SJ. Its going to take the low road no matter what. It breaks off from the trough over the Pacific ocean under cuts the ridging out west and slides along the south. It comes ashore in CA and would mostly likely go offshore around the GA/SC coast. The main problem it appears with the euro is not enough NS interaction with CAA solidly occured/occuring by the time the storm arrives. It could be something simply as a timing difference this run or an overall problem of no stream interaction. Even though there is a well defined PV but essentially the euro is too zonal with the flow until the last min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yeah. We'll probably see more looks yet. I think SE winter weather fans invented the phrase, "Thread the needle." And Pack, you're not wrong yet. Long way to go to see how this one evolves. I bet we see a beast on the Euro 12z run today. This thing can only climb so high before being shunted east with the kicker low coming onshore in the west. Have to hope the HA can bleed more SE than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The models are having a hard time with the position of the polar vortex. The day to day model run changes are crazy. The Thursday runs had backed off the really cold look, then yesterday they brought the really cold look, now they are backing off again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wow. How did the temps look? Based off thicknesses.. not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I bet we see a beast on the Euro 12z run today. This thing can only climb so high before being shunted east with the kicker low coming onshore in the west. Have to hope the HA can bleed more SE than 0z. Pretty much thinking the same from some modeling today. Not quite sure the 12z will grab on yet though. Although I would like to see more models agreeing with my thoughts.. I think there is a very high chance for a Winter storm or two into the Southeast over the next couple of weeks. My confidence in a true deep South storm is increasing.. along with another storm for those further into NC/MA areas. The comments about the Euro being too zonal weren't too far off.... WPC seems to think there will be a storm off the East coast of the Carolinas come day 7. KCAE forecast disucssion is just mentioning temps being below normal, which would be the best route for any forecast to go this far out. Having to get the GGEM to be correct with no support from the Euro or GFS is a bit worrying. Hopefully one of these models can become consistent with whatever solution and the rest follow within the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The pattern is ripe for a nice southern storm. The cold shouldn't be a question with that much of it North of us. However.....I can still see this event being a rainy one only with very little snow. I am not gonna lie, I would be kind of pissed if no snow came out of this...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 12Z gfs looking better than prior gfs runs with colder air closer and more robust system for 2/28-3/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Looks like the 12z GFS is going to come to the party as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Well, its trying.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Looks like the 12z GFS is going to come to the party as well. Snow parts of N GA 12Z gfs 2/28 (up to 3" small area and counting for max). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The 12Z GFS is looking quite interesting. Here is the 850mb analysis at 09Z on 3/1. The 2m 0C line is further south a good chunk of SC. Edit: I posted the wrong map, first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Larry, 850s are a torch..lol But as that map above shows, 2m temps are not far away. All things considering, how gfs loves to meat grind the southern stream, this is a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Larry, 850s are a torch..lol But as that map above shows, 2m temps are not far away. All things considering, how gfs loves to meat grind the southern stream, this is a step in the right direction. Yeah, this looks like the gfs gradually seeing the light. Big step here. remember for the last storm how it lost the storm til just couple of days before it? Also NC gets a nice hit with variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 As the hours progress after precip onset east of the Apps, the CAD seems to reinforce and send the colder ground-level further south with each frame. 850s hover below 0C from about I-40 northward, though, and don't seem to progress much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Ice!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 2m temps at 12Z on 3/1: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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