franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 0z euro ensembles keep a deep trough in the east same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 0z euro ensembles keep a deep trough in the east same time period. Euro weekies showed this first FWIW before the ensembles got in range, deep trough not only that but a pretty decent ridge out west at 225gpm goes well into Canada. I'd post the map but it's weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I was about to toss the rest of the winter, but the 12z GEFS looks pretty interesting D10-15. Fab February won't give up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yep, time to start tracking the next one. The GFS has it at 336. Set the countdown. If we get one more decent event, I'll say this is the best winter in a long, long time. It's certainly the best one in the last couple of years, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I was about to toss the rest of the winter, but the 12z GEFS looks pretty interesting D10-15. Fab February won't give up?We better hurry up, it can't snow in March? Is there any blocking showing up? I'm ready for the next threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We better hurry up, it can't snow in March? Is there any blocking showing up? I'm ready for the next threat! March 93 and 09 says hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The first week or two of March are actually one of the snowiest periods of winter here statistically, judging by averages. Of course, by then you're fighting the torching sun angle and BL temperatures are almost certainly going to be an issue. It's hard to get hopeful, but it might happen. March 2010 was also decent for some, though that was somewhat ruined for many due to spotty rates, the sun angle, warm soil temperatures, and above freezing BL temperatures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM shows little snow tomorrow night, and NWS-.FRIDAY...SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCEOF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDSAROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT..FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOWLIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE.LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WESTAROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Robert nailed the pattern. I have to admit when he was saying lookout a month ago part of me was laughing. Big props to him in recognizing what was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Robert sees stuff no normal human can, lol. He is the man. If I can have him, and Larry, I don't need me no G Burns, biblical or not!! Climo likes Feb after the 20th, and after a bit of a warm up for a few days, we'll get back to the highs coming down, with the water underneath. I expect fun well into March. I saw my first lightening during a sleet fall last night, so maybe an April snow again. It's been a long time. It's Ull magic time. The pattern hasn't changed since last March, so why stop now. Blocking? What blocking? We don't need no stinkin' blocking. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 March 93 and 09 says hi. '10 is waving wildly - "Don't forget me!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Also March 24 1983 when nearly 1 foot of snow fell here so it can certainly snow in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 '10 is waving wildly - "Don't forget me!"I don't remember '10? March of 09' was on the 1st, if I recall, but was nice ! I had like 8" and some of the best snow in awhile! So 93 and 09 are the only ones I remember. I was in grade school through the early/mid 80s, so don't remember them. I know it can happen, just not as likely as Jan or Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I don't remember '10? March of 09' was on the 1st, if I recall, but was nice ! I had like 8" and some of the best snow in awhile! So 93 and 09 are the only ones I remember. I was in grade school through the early/mid 80s, so don't remember them. I know it can happen, just not as likely as Jan or Feb That was the all day event that never stuck. We did have a decent snow in February that year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The first week or two of March are actually one of the snowiest periods of winter here statistically, judging by averages. Of course, by then you're fighting the torching sun angle and BL temperatures are almost certainly going to be an issue. It's hard to get hopeful, but it might happen. March 2010 was also decent for some, though that was somewhat ruined for many due to spotty rates, the sun angle, warm soil temperatures, and above freezing BL temperatures... Hell, we have that problem over here in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAdawg Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 March 93 and 09 says hi. Yea, 93 was one I remember since I was expecting my daughter two weeks later. It was an amazing storm for ATL as memory serves me. March is the surprise storm month around here. I am interested in seeing if we can pull another storm off in 10 days. Why stop the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I don't even remember the 2010 ull. Most likely because it didn't work out for my area. 2009 was awesome and would love having a surprise repeat of it this year to make up for this past storm. I believe my area got 9-10 in 2009 from that storm including thundersnow. The 12z cmc does show a clipper like system this sunday (correct me if I'm wrong) that gives the upstate some light snow. We all know how these systems work out though for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Fwiw: Euro weeklies this evening have much of the E US colder than normal for weeks 2-4 covering 2/24-3/16 along with near to above normal precip. Maybe Tony will still get his dream sleet after all! GA and much of the SE has already had a dream of a winter. Might they get more lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Just read D/T forecast .Of course we've got a warm up coming later next week but he believes winter temps will return end of Feb into March. Which is the same thing J/B said last sat on his saturday summary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Just read D/T forecast .Of course we've got a warm up coming later next week but he believes winter temps will return end of Feb into March. Which is the same thing J/B said last sat on his saturday summary. That's what Jb saying tonight also, warm up next week but you can see the cold coming as it's warming up. #winter not over, we very well could get another snow or two before mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 HR 360-372 GFS looks interesting at first glance from a novice perspective. What would the next step be in trying to decipher these? I've spent about 5-6 years reading these forums in the winter because I love winter weather, but now I have decided that I would like to learn more about reading these things myself instead of just reading everyone else's interpretations. Perhaps there is a weather 100 course somewhere that ya'll could point me towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 HR 360-372 GFS looks interesting at first glance from a novice perspective. What would the next step be in trying to decipher these? I've spent about 5-6 years reading these forums in the winter because I love winter weather, but now I have decided that I would like to learn more about reading these things myself instead of just reading everyone else's interpretations. Perhaps there is a weather 100 course somewhere that ya'll could point me towards. I'm not sure about how much you know about reading these maps (I myself don't know much yet), but that event does look interesting. Unfortunately it's so far out at this range that we may as well make a forecast for 70 degrees and sunny at this point and it would be about as accurate. One thing to look out for is the 850 mb temperature plot. At this height it's a general rule of thumb that if you're above the 0 degree line then you'll get snow, and below it will be rain. Obviously that's somewhat of a coarse description, but it does help. I'm sure you probably knew all of this already, but that's about the extent of my knowledge so I thought I'd help where I could! I've learned more following the posts on this site this year than I have just about the rest of my life tracking the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I like 2/28 period for the next chance at winter weather...seeing many mslp anomaly maps indicating a system somewhere off the east coast during this time frame, including the euro weeklies & control and various ensembles. Obviously it's insanely far away, but it appears to be our next (and possibly last) chance as a east coast trough/west coast ridge combo is also seen during this time period on various LR models. No telling what March will hold though. We might get some severe before our next wintry event. 18z GFS KTRI text actually has -TSSN during this time. If so, fab feb indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I like 2/28 period for the next chance at winter weather...seeing many mslp anomaly maps indicating a system somewhere off the east coast during this time frame, including the euro weeklies & control and various ensembles. Obviously it's insanely far away, but it appears to be our next (and possibly last) chance as a east coast trough/west coast ridge combo is also seen during this time period on various LR models. No telling what March will hold though. We might get some severe before our next wintry event. 18z GFS KTRI text actually has -TSSN during this time. If so, fab feb indeed. That would be a perfect birthday present if it happened the 28th! It happened back in 2010, maybe it can happen again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm not sure about how much you know about reading these maps (I myself don't know much yet), but that event does look interesting. Unfortunately it's so far out at this range that we may as well make a forecast for 70 degrees and sunny at this point and it would be about as accurate. One thing to look out for is the 850 mb temperature plot. At this height it's a general rule of thumb that if you're above the 0 degree line then you'll get snow, and below it will be rain. Obviously that's somewhat of a coarse description, but it does help. I'm sure you probably knew all of this already, but that's about the extent of my knowledge so I thought I'd help where I could! I've learned more following the posts on this site this year than I have just about the rest of my life tracking the weather. I sort of understand what you are talking about, but I do not know where to find that 850 info. I'm spoiled from just watching and listening to everyone else on here. I know about the jetstream, 540 line and how the lows and highs work, that's about the extent of my knowledge. All of this tilting stuff and ocean patterns are way over my head. I really need to learn more, just because it intrigues me so. Finding all of the models and trying to figure out how to run them is proving to be a real challenge as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 HR 360-372 GFS looks interesting at first glance from a novice perspective. What would the next step be in trying to decipher these? I've spent about 5-6 years reading these forums in the winter because I love winter weather, but now I have decided that I would like to learn more about reading these things myself instead of just reading everyone else's interpretations. Perhaps there is a weather 100 course somewhere that ya'll could point me towards. Here ya go. This thread has a wealth of info for newbies. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29651-weather-references-and-newbie-information/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I sort of understand what you are talking about, but I do not know where to find that 850 info. I'm spoiled from just watching and listening to everyone else on here. I know about the jetstream, 540 line and how the lows and highs work, that's about the extent of my knowledge. All of this tilting stuff and ocean patterns are way over my head. I really need to learn more, just because it intrigues me so. Finding all of the models and trying to figure out how to run them is proving to be a real challenge as well. If you're really interested in following the models, I would suggest a subscription to americanwx.com. It's $10 per month and if you go to models.americanwx.com then you have easy access to all of the models except the Euro. I got it for the first time in January and it's been tremendously helpful. Plus it supports this site! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like a huge rainstorm at hour 222 per the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Fwiw: Euro weeklies this evening have much of the E US colder than normal for weeks 2-4 covering 2/24-3/16 along with near to above normal precip. Maybe Tony will still get his dream sleet after all! GA amd much of the SE has already had a dream of a winter. Might they get more lol? You know, I have a hunch some blocking will show up late for the party, but very welcome, along with a split flow. Make it a winter to remember. I just can't take any more of these lows coming too far north to do me any good, so I need some good suppression from a strong high, that isn't a cad, lol. I hate freakin' z rain!!! Hell, I'll even take snow if I have to, but no more z rain, ever. Is there anywhere that doesn't get zr? I may need to move there. The beast stalks me.... T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0624Z FRI FEB 14 2014THIS MESSAGE IS BEING TRANSMITTED ON BEHALF OF THE NWSTELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY...FROM - NWSTGTO - ALLSUBJECT - NWSTG COMMS OUTAGE.THE NWSTG HAS EXPERIENCED A SEVERE COMMS OUTAGEAT THIS TIME - NETWORK ENGINEERS HAVE BEEN MADEAWARE AND ARE TROUBLESHOOTING - INITIAL CHECKSWITH NOAA NOC SHOWS WE MAY HAVE A MAJOR FIBERCUT CAUSING CONNECTIVITY ISSUES - WILL KEEPYOU POSTED AS MORE INFO BECOMES AVAILABLE..NWSTGHANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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