superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Well, now the 00z GFS looks fairly interesting for the Brick Tamland Storm on 2/26. Hmm...... Surface temperatures still look kind of warm, though. EDIT: Well, it looks like 33-35 on the GFS depending on how far east you are, so that might work out for some solid slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Well, now the 00z GFS looks fairly interesting for the Brick Tamland Storm on 2/26. Hmm...... Surface temperatures still look kind of warm, though. LOL, this potential event has been ticking south with every run, the PV is on a rampage. 1-3" for central NC to NE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 LOL, this potential event has been ticking south with every run, the PV is on a rampage. 1-3" for central NC to NE NC.Is this event a clipper? The Brick special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Is this event a clipper? The Brick special? Yep. I haven't even looked at model runs for this event prior to today, so not sure what's been going on with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 LOL, is that all, to easy! Maybe the 0z GFS brings hope, although I am hoping for more 60-70F degree weather, looks like I may have to wait until mid-March. See....tick south....tick south. Easy peasy. You'll get your 60-70+ for 3/4 of the year. I'm good with more winter. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 CMC day 7-8 has a nice event, looks like it ticked north a hair, looks to be central GA to most of SC to eastern half of NC would be a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 CMC day 7-8 has a nice event, looks like it ticked north a hair, looks to be central GA to most of SC to eastern half of NC would be a winter storm.Having the Euro and CMC on board for the 28-1 storm is good at this point. Trends are good, anxiously awaiting tonight's Euro. Let's see how the vortex sets up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yep. I haven't even looked at model runs for this event prior to today, so not sure what's been going on with it. It's looked like a marginal event for the Mid-Atlantic for awhile, at times maybe scraping S VA and N NC. The trends are definitely nice with it, so we'll see. One could argue the 00z GFS took some positive steps with the 2/28-3/1 storm, though it was still a disaster. I'm not sure if I'm willing to put much stock in the GFS handling southern stream systems at this point, though. It was awful with the 2/12 storm. EDIT: Yep, the GGEM looks nice for 2/28-3/1. Nice track over the FL peninsula. Ideally, I'd like it further north selfishly, but it's still a nice storm for some. Looks like snow from GSO and CLT to the east over towards the coast and also in upstate SC and N GA. WNC misses out with cold/dry... for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 It's looked like a marginal event for the Mid-Atlantic for awhile, at times maybe scraping S VA and N NC. The trends are definitely nice with it, so we'll see. One could argue the 00z GFS took some positive steps with the 2/28-3/1 storm, though it was still a disaster. I'm not sure if I'm willing to put much stock in the GFS handling southern stream systems at this point, though. It was awful with the 2/12 storm. EDIT: Yep, the GGEM looks nice for 2/28-3/1. Nice track over the FL peninsula. Ideally, I'd like it further north selfishly, but it's still a nice storm for some. Agreed, the 3/1 event looked much better through day 6 or so and then after that it was terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 It's looked like a marginal event for the Mid-Atlantic for awhile, at times maybe scraping S VA and N NC. The trends are definitely nice with it, so we'll see. One could argue the 00z GFS took some positive steps with the 2/28-3/1 storm, though it was still a disaster. I'm not sure if I'm willing to put much stock in the GFS handling southern stream systems at this point, though. It was awful with the 2/12 storm. EDIT: Yep, the GGEM looks nice for 2/28-3/1. Nice track over the FL peninsula. Ideally, I'd like it further north selfishly, but it's still a nice storm for some. Looks like snow from GSO and CLT to the east over towards the coast and also in upstate SC and N GA. WNC misses out with cold/dry... for now. It didn't get worse from its 12z run, wouldn't take much to turn it into a nice southern slider...although wouldn't take much to turn it into nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Honestly there is an interesting look overall so far on the 0z models given their differences so far. Wintry mix midweek then next weekend. Honestly it looks like mondays coldfront may start the overrunning process some leading into mid/late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 It didn't get worse from its 12z run, wouldn't take much to turn it into a nice southern slider...although wouldn't take much to turn it into nothing. Pretty much my sentiments as well regarding 3/1. We've seen a bit of improvement with today's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Sign me up...lol any GEM maps tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Sign me up...lol any GEM maps tonight? Here you go delta... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 TY very much!! Well, then....lol, yes, if that is cold enough, we have a massive snow event..hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Forgive the dumb question, but can a high pressure in central Canada get cold enough air down our way for a wintry event? Or are those just coarse maps? The set up just looks funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Forgive the dumb question, but can a high pressure in central Canada get cold enough air down our way for a wintry event? Or are those just coarse maps? The set up just looks funny. May not be the classic look, but notice how the surface high ridges from south central Canada, across the Great Lakes, and into NY/PA. Surface pressures are above 1032mb in NY/PA and there are NE surface winds extending down east of the Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Delta, Per the 0Z GGEM, you're getting a mix verbatim although snow is very close and that track suggests snow to me fwiw. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=192&fixhh=1&hh=180 The prior frame suggests snow at Jackson: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=180&fixhh=1&hh=168 Edit: 0z King warmer with cold rain for 2/28-3/1 for Columbus to NCN to AGS to CAE to FVL but at least Miller still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro pretty warm at Day 7 -- Low over new Orleans looks nice, but High is waaaaaaay back up over Canada -- too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro pretty warm at Day 7 -- Low over new Orleans looks nice, but High is waaaaaaay back up over Canada -- too far. Yeah, it ends up scraping C GA, E SC, and E NC, but it's too warm and they just get 30s/rain with the 0C 850 mb isotherm at the NC/VA border. Thickness values were about 6 dm higher than at 12z. 850s aren't too far off at around 1C-2C in most areas, though. The track might argue for colder temperatures, IMO, but I'm a weenie. Things will change, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 would like to see a little nw trend, thinking wnc will at least have the cold air in place so a little nw trend which is usually no problem would put a good thump of snow on wnc e tn and n ga and upstate possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yeah, it ends up scraping C GA, E SC, and E NC, but it's too warm and they just get 30s/rain with the 0C 850 mb isotherm at the NC/VA border. Thickness values were about 6 dm higher than at 12z. 850s aren't too far off at around 1C-2C in most areas, though. The track might argue for colder temperatures, IMO, but I'm a weenie. Things will change, so we'll see. The Euro ENS mean is perfect, but warm, guess climo is catching up with us. Oh well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Well, I agree that we got some decent solutions regarding the southern stream. Of course, now the north is devolving. We need high pressure to build in faster, like the CMC is showing. The Euro took a big step back here. Even the GFS isn't cold enough! and it's usually too cold, so that is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Well the track on the GGEM is almost classic climo for a snow storm into the deep south. Maybe a bit like Feb. 2010's track to an extent. For NC to see a lot, it'd have to tick North which I'd argue could happen as we get closer. The mix over snow really makes no sense to me based off the track, so we'll have to see how it all plays out on the GGEM. The Euro is just too warm basically though. Taking a peek at the 06z GFS doesn't really impress me too much. I do remember the GGEM model was the first to latch on with a following JMA model for the Feb snow down this way back in 2010... with that kind of track... so the solutions can't really just be thrown out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Well the track on the GGEM is almost classic climo for a snow storm into the deep south. Maybe a bit like Feb. 2010's track to an extent. For NC to see a lot, it'd have to tick North which I'd argue could happen as we get closer. The mix over snow really makes no sense to me based off the track, so we'll have to see how it all plays out on the GGEM. The Euro is just too warm basically though. Taking a peek at the 06z GFS doesn't really impress me too much. I do remember the GGEM model was the first to latch on with a following JMA model for the Feb snow down this way back in 2010... with that kind of track... so the solutions can't really just be thrown out yet. I actually feel pretty good about there being a storm for the SE, but I am concerned about the evolution of the northern stream and getting the cold in here on time. I'd feel better if we had a rapidly intensifying low like the Euro showed a couple days ago, but if the northern stream is late, I don't see that happening either. We need the PV to evolve correctly. I think the southern system will be there.Edit: And I agree with you about the mix. Without a damming High, this system is going to be pretty much rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I actually feel pretty good about there being a storm for the SE, but I am concerned about the evolution of the northern stream and getting the cold in here on time. I'd feel better if we had a rapidly intensifying low like the Euro showed a couple days ago, but if the northern stream is late, I don't see that happening either. We need the PV to evolve correctly. I think the southern system will be there. Edit: And I agree with you about the mix. Without a damming High, this system is going to be pretty much rain or snow. Member off the GGEM ENS has an absolute monster for a lot of SC and areas of GA. I saw a almost 5 inch precip maximum off the coast even. I'd still like more model support to begin feeling like this could happen for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Member off the GGEM ENS has an absolute monster for a lot of SC and areas of GA. I saw a almost 5 inch precip maximum off the coast even. I'd still like more model support to begin feeling like this could happen for us. Wow. How did the temps look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 RAH actually mentions the possibility if wintry precip in their AFD for Tuesday/Wednesday and Friday/Saturday, believe it or not. I would post it but I'm on iPad and for some reason, I can't copy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 RAH actually mentions the possibility if wintry precip in their AFD for Tuesday/Wednesday and Friday/Saturday, believe it or not. I would post it but I'm on iPad and for some reason, I can't copy it. Here ya go: "THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MODELS CONCERNING THE OVERALL PATTERN THAT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER... DETAILS CONCERNING A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT FEATURES ARE YET TO BE DETERMINED. ONE OF THOSE APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH TO COMBINE WITH A POTENTIAL STORM AND MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO NC. IT APPEARS THAT MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD AIR (BRUTALLY COLD AIR AGAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND) COMES INTO OUR REGION IN INSTALLMENTS. THE FIRST MAY ARRIVE AS THE POTENTIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (AND MOISTURE) DOES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER INSTALLMENT OF COLD SHOULD ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER... TEMPS AT OUR LATITUDE SHOULD NOT BE AT THE COLD EXTREMES THAT THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND SUFFER THROUGH. YET... IT MAY PROVE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTERY PRECIPITATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Thanks, Rev! Pretty bullish language from them this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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