packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro ENS SLP is a tick NW of the Op has GSO to CLT and points east in the 0.25-0.50" QPF range, with 0.5"+ on the coast. Not bad for day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The 12Z Euro has snow from Columbus to Macon to Columbia to SE NC 2/28-3/1 with 850's of 0 to -1C from a Miller A that goes from the SE tip of LA to Daytona Beach and then well out to sea. This is closer to the 12Z Euro of yesterday. If I'm in one of those cities, that's the track I'd want! So....where do I sign up Larry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro ENS SLP is a tick NW of the Op has GSO to CLT and points east in the 0.25-0.50" QPF range, with 0.5"+ on the coast. Not bad for day 8. Euro Op and Euro Ens both track the wave SSE out of the southern Rockies and through the deep south. Euro Ens not quite as suppressed with the wave as it tracks into Georgia, then east. Sfc low tracks look similar, across central FL I think the biggest thing of note with the 12z Euro suite is that it held the wave a bit stronger so that there is actually a storm, albeit fairly weak...and cold air looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro Op and Euro Ens both track the wave SSE out of the southern Rockies and through the deep south. Euro Ens not quite as suppressed with the wave as it tracks into Georgia, then east. Sfc low tracks look similar, across central FL I think the biggest thing of note with the 12z Euro suite is that it held the wave a bit stronger so that there is actually a storm, albeit fairly weak...and cold air looks pretty good. Nice that a couple of other models show something very similar (CMC and JMA). Would like to see GFS and UK show something come Sunday 12z runs. NAVGEM does have a nice vort, fairly suppressed but it's nice it showing a strong vort 7-8 days out. One thing we won't have to worry about with this "potential" event is cold air, just need the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 GFS on Meteostar has highs struggling to get out of 30s next Fri in CHS, lower in rest of state. Has back to back days with lows in the mid 20s. Average high for CHS on 2/28 is 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I see that the euro does put down a little bit of snow over the areas, as Larry was saying. I noticed that temps are very boarderline...*way too early to worry about that, I know* but, will be fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Nice recovery by the 12z EPS mean. Mean SN is now back up to 1.75" for GSO after being around 0.6" at 00z last night. Most members are onboard with a light event, at least, There's one member onboard with a big dog. RDU's mean is 1.2" while CLT's is around an inch. HKY is around 1.2". PGV is around 1". CAE is about 0.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Nice recovery by the 12z EPS mean. Mean SN is now back up to 1.75" for GSO after being around 0.6" at 00z last night. Most members are onboard with a light event, at least, There's one member onboard with a big dog. RDU's mean is 1.2" while CLT's is around an inch. HKY is around 1.2". PGV is around 1". CAE is about 0.4". James, you referring to the potential 3/1 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Some interesting 5 day CIP's analogs showing up…also SOI started to go negative the past couple of days and the MJO looks to be heading to a solid phase 8. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&sort=500HGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 James, you referring to the potential 3/1 event? Yes. Some interesting 5 day CIP's analogs showing up…also SOI started to go negative the past couple of days and the MJO looks to be heading to a solid phase 8. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&sort=500HGHT Oh, wow, 1/28/10 is the top analog. I'd be all over that. The 2003 analogs are interesting, too. The first analog is the 1/16/03 clipper and the other is 1/20/03, a few days before the megaclipper. I'm not familiar with most of the other ones to know whether they had a storm or not. I wasn't even alive in the 1980s and RAH's past events page isn't very expansive for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Yes. Oh, wow, 1/28/10 is the top analog. I'd be all over that. The 2003 analogs are interesting, too. The first analog is the 1/16/03 clipper and the other is 1/20/03, a few days before the megaclipper. I'm not familiar with most of the other ones to know whether they had a storm or not. I wasn't even alive in the 1980s and RAH's past events page isn't very expansive for that period. There's another nice one in there too, down toward the middle, don't let Brick see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 There's another nice one in there too, down toward the middle, don't let Brick see that. Ha, I missed that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Nice recovery by the 12z EPS mean. Mean SN is now back up to 1.75" for GSO after being around 0.6" at 00z last night. Most members are onboard with a light event, at least, There's one member onboard with a big dog. RDU's mean is 1.2" while CLT's is around an inch. HKY is around 1.2". PGV is around 1". CAE is about 0.4". 1.15" recovery seems a tad irrelevant, still is pretty horrible since we have a pattern basically locked in, you would think the euro ensembles would be much better based on how they performed with the last big dog. I won't feel good about this one until we start seeing higher means. I know people say suppression is good at this time frame so we will see, still doesn't feel right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 1.15" recovery seems a tad irrelevant, still is pretty horrible since we have a pattern basically locked in, you would think the euro ensembles would be much better based on how they performed with the last big dog. I won't feel good about this one until we start seeing higher means. I know people say suppression is good at this time frame so we will see, still doesn't feel right. If this was day 5 I would agree, but day 8 it's not bad. Your right though it could get crushed to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 18z GFS gives the triad snow on Wed. Probably just 18z GFS being the 18z GFS but is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 1.15" recovery seems a tad irrelevant, still is pretty horrible since we have a pattern basically locked in, you would think the euro ensembles would be much better based on how they performed with the last big dog. I won't feel good about this one until we start seeing higher means. I know people say suppression is good at this time frame so we will see, still doesn't feel right. If this was day 5 I would agree, but day 8 it's not bad. Your right though it could get crushed to nothing. I agree with both these sentiments. Right now the ensembles have not caught on which is concerning, but I'll wait until day 5-6 before I think about moving on. At this point I don't know if I believe in the NW trend either. The last one didn't. Not so sure this one will either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 18z GFS gives the triad snow on Wed. Probably just 18z GFS being the 18z GFS but is interesting. pack show anything for wnc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 18z gfs has almost the entire state of NC at or below 0 the night of the 27th. Wow. Edit: Shows moisture and 0c line over WNC for around 6 hours but the snowfall maps show that nothing accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 pack show anything for wnc? Not really, mtns have some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I agree with both these sentiments. Right now the ensembles have not caught on which is concerning, but I'll wait until day 5-6 before I think about moving on. At this point I don't know if I believe in the NW trend either. The last one didn't. Not so sure this one will either. Roberts thinking is the models can't or haven't caught on yet to what will really happen end of next week into the weekend. Thinking you have to look more in depth than just the models, that's what I like about Robert he puts more stock into what else is going on instead of watching the models so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Not really, mtns have some light snow. well light snow would be better than nothing. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 JB thinks next weekend will commence a stretch of snow from the Carolinas northward through the 03-03 period as the Arctic air will not be able to get out of the way before an overrunning system coming east from Tx then develops into a gulf low which tracks up the SC/NC coast and into the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 18z GFS gives the triad snow on Wed. Probably just 18z GFS being the 18z GFS but is interesting. Its been showing that for the last few runs. Mountains all snow with a r>s scenario for the western piedmont into the triad and along the va border. Much like the CMC. But extremely light amounts. Now not sure if the gfs is being the gfs... but def showing alot more moisture for the 2/28-3/2 timeframe than it has been showing prior. The question remains how much energy gets ejected out ahead of the developing trough off the west coast that cmc,euro,gfs is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The GFS will trend colder each day, imo. BTW, what is going on with the temp icons, I have 44 degrees currently and it says 62?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 JB thinks next weekend will commence a stretch of snow from the Carolinas northward through the 03-03 period as the Arctic air will not be able to get out of the way before an overrunning system coming east from Tx then develops into a gulf low which tracks up the SC/NC coast and into the MA Yes He does, those 500mb maps look awesome, looks like winter will hang for a while to come... Just hope he's right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The GFS will trend colder each day, imo. BTW, what is going on with the temp icons, I have 44 degrees currently and it says 62?? yep I'm at 38 and the temp on here says 52. I noticed this last week that the temp was off pretty bad on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Fwiw its like the 1st run that is really showing anything near term and its still 84. But 0z nam look similar to euro in respect to h5 level. Wonder if the gfs will get aboard for something around 26th timeframe. Face value nam is potentially cold enough for snow roughly from Nashville, Asheville, Clt, RDU north. But maybe something to track around mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Fwiw its like the 1st run that is really showing anything near term and its still 84. But 0z nam look similar to euro in respect to h5 level. Wonder if the gfs will get aboard for something around 26th timeframe. Face value nam is potentially cold enough for snow roughly from Nashville, Asheville, Clt, RDU north. But maybe something to track around mid week. yep just noticed GSP has Asheville with slight chance of snow tuesday nite and 30% for wednesday of next week. looks like GSP is seeing a little something on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Fwiw its like the 1st run that is really showing anything near term and its still 84. But 0z nam look similar to euro in respect to h5 level. Wonder if the gfs will get aboard for something around 26th timeframe. Face value nam is potentially cold enough for snow roughly from Nashville, Asheville, Clt, RDU north. But maybe something to track around mid week. If we can knock that track about 100 miles south, we'll be in bidness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 If we can knock that track about 100 miles south, we'll be in bidness. LOL, is that all, to easy! Maybe the 0z GFS brings hope, although I am hoping for more 60-70F degree weather, looks like I may have to wait until mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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