Tacoma Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The models must be totally off The models must be totally off then, because my local forecast is sunny and in the 50s all next week. I think the weather forecasters are so conservative and only tell you what the models show instead of looking deeper into what is going on upstream like Robert does. Robert nailed the last storm when none of the local mets. or anyone who predicts the weather were buying in to a snowstorm. Everything I'm reading is talking about the cold next week and your right not local tv or twc or accu weather are showing the low temps yet. Like one of the other readers said above they kinda come into the cold or a snowstorm real slow where as Robert tells it like it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The models must be totally off The models must be totally off then, because my local forecast is sunny and in the 50s all next week. That's not the way your official local forecast works. Thank goodness actual meteorologists make official forecats for the public and not us. Why in the world would a news station or the NWS go against climo 5+ days out and follow models that change from run to run? Next Thursday is 50. No, it's 30. No, it's 40. No, it's 60. No, it's 50. It's why, as you have pointed out over and over and over, that they lower temps as the time gets closer. It's why, as you have pointed out over and over and over, that they add wintry weather to the forecast as time gets closer. It's the wisest way to do it, when you're trying to communicate inexact information, with a high margin for error, to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 That's not the way your official local forecast works. Thank goodness actual meteorologist make official forecats for the public and not us. Why in the world would a news station or the NWS go against climo 5+ days out and follow models that change from run to run? Next Thursday is 50. No, it's 30. No, it's 40. No, it's 60. No, it's 50. It's why, as you have pointed out over and over and over, that they lower temps as the time gets closer. It's why, as you have pointed out over and over and over, that they add wintry weather to the forecast as time gets closer. It's the wisest way to do it, when you're trying to communicate inexact information, with a high margin for error, to the public. I'll have to agree here though. Robert has the luxury of looking way ahead and telling us what he thinks, giving the local mets credit they really can't go out on that limb because it will probably break more than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I think the weather forecasters are so conservative and only tell you what the models show instead of looking deeper into what is going on upstream like Robert does. Robert nailed the last storm when none of the local mets. or anyone who predicts the weather were buying in to a snowstorm. Everything I'm reading is talking about the cold next week and your right not local tv or twc or accu weather are showing the low temps yet. Like one of the other readers said above they kinda come into the cold or a snowstorm real slow where as Robert tells it like it is. No. See above. Robert is good. But he's not an official weather outlet to the general public. He's a subscription-based private met and is not responsible for getting info to the public in the same way that the NWS or media outlets are. He's great to read and is a great resource for us. In many ways, being part of a forum like this is a double-edged sword. We live and die by each run of the models and many times, we think we know what will happen before the "official" forecasts call for it. But that also increases the likelihood of us being wrong too. If we were issuing forecasts based on every run of the models, our forecast would change wildly from day to day. Robert isn't creating an official forecast for next week. He's discussing potential -- the same thing we're doing. And he's very good at it. But none of this will be reflected in any "official" forecast until things become much better agreed upon and much more certain. Edit: Just saw your post. We're on the same page. But it just seems like there is frequently a lot of confusion around this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 No. See above. Robert is good. But he's not an official weather outlet to the general public. He's a subscription-based private met and is not responsible for getting info to the public in the same way that the NWS or media outlets are. He's great to read and is a great resource for us. In many ways, being part of a forum like this is a double-edged sword. We live and die by each run of the models and many times, we think we know what will happen before the "official" forecasts call for it. But that also increases the likelihood of us being wrong too. If we were issuing forecasts based on every run of the models, our forecast would change wildly from day to day. Robert isn't creating an official forecast for next week. He's discussing potential -- the same thing we're doing. And he's very good at it. But none of this will be reflected in any "official" forecast until things become much better agreed upon and much more certain. Edit: Just saw your post. We're on the same page. But it just seems like there is frequently a lot of confusion around this. totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I agree with the pattern still looks favorable even though the models look bleak. If I had to place money on something right now... the models are going to look totally different again by tonight. Will be interesting to see how they've changed once we get the trough passing through and off the coast today. I see some potential with the 26-27th system for some light snow showers/flurries. But something to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The cold being modeled next week is just sick… I think models are starting to pick up how cold it's going to be, just miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 12z gfs is blah! Very cold but dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 FYI…GGEM has the storm next weekend, super suppressed, probably snow for southern southern GA, SE SC, SE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 12z gfs is blah! Very cold but dry. It may be right, but look at how this 5 day storm has evolved, it's getting bigger, granted it's north of us, but have to wait a few more days to see how next weekend transpires. Maybe something comes after that, the 4th/5th potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 It may be right, but look at how this 5 day storm has evolved, it's getting bigger, granted it's north of us, but have to wait a few more days to see how next weekend transpires. Maybe something comes after that, the 4th/5th potential. I agree...I don't believe this is the final solution. There will be changes over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The last storm has me spoiled with it being locked in a week out. Getting uneasy seeing no discernable storm through March 1. I know the pattern's good but I'd like to see more than a fantasy storm here and there, and at least the ensembles pointing toward a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 WPC had this to say about the Wed/Thurs system (26-27) in their morning update: ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR ONE WEATHER SYSTEM WILLSPIN UP AS IT HEADS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING. A SECONDWAVE IS MORE LIKELY TO YIELD WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESOUTH AND EAST ON WED/THU...WITH AIR LIKELY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORTICE AND SNOW IN A STRIPE CENTERED FROM AROUND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPITOWARD THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. The last storm has me spoiled with it being locked in a week out. Getting uneasy seeing no discernable storm through March 1. I know the pattern's good but I'd like to see more than a fantasy storm here and there, and at least the ensembles pointing toward a threat. Suspect you will remain uneasy as I don't think we will be seeing any 5 star locks anytime soon. Looks to me like we have an outside shot at 26/27 (looks too warm right now, need arctic boundary to sag farther south before the sfc low spins up along it) and 3/1 (sstream wave is getting crushed as it moves into cold, NW flow over the eastern U.S.)...3/3 looks like a warm cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 FYI…GGEM has the storm next weekend, super suppressed, probably snow for southern southern GA, SE SC, SE NC. The GGEM has probably snow for S GA? Do you mean the new 12Z or the 0Z? The 0Z definitely doesn't have snow for S GA, SE SC and SE NC as the 850's are well above 0C. It isn't even close. What does the 12Z have if that's already out for next weekend? I'm trying to figure out why you said the model has snow for these areas. Snow in these areas is serious business because it is so rare, especially in S GA/SE SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 WPC had this to say about the Wed/Thurs system (26-27) in their morning update: ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR ONE WEATHER SYSTEM WILLSPIN UP AS IT HEADS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING. A SECONDWAVE IS MORE LIKELY TO YIELD WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESOUTH AND EAST ON WED/THU...WITH AIR LIKELY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORTICE AND SNOW IN A STRIPE CENTERED FROM AROUND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPITOWARD THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. Suspect you will remain uneasy as I don't think we will be seeing any 5 star locks anytime soon. Looks to me like we have an outside shot at 26/27 (looks too warm right now, need arctic boundary to sag farther south before the sfc low spins up along it) and 3/1 (sstream wave is getting crushed as it moves into cold, NW flow over the eastern U.S.)...3/3 looks like a warm cutter Yep I'm spoiled...I'll guess I'll see what happens on Monday, but my enthusiasm in the pattern is waning. The GGEM has probably snow for S GA? Do you mean the new 12Z or the 0Z? The 0Z definitely doesn't have snow for S GA, SE SC and SE NC as the 850's are well above 0C. It isn't even close. What does the 12Z have if that's already out for next weekend? I'm trying to figure out why you said the model has snow for these areas. Snow in these areas is serious business because it is so rare, especially in S GA/SE SC. Yeah the 0Z had the 850s in PA. I was assuming he meant 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 12z gfs is blah! Very cold but dry. That cold is impressive though. The 12z and 06z run differ on when the coldest air gets here and at it's coldest, the 12z is a touch warmer at 850mb temps but the 06z run had 850mb temps of -20c almost get down to ga..cutting across tn and nc..as far south as just north of chattanooga. And lows of 10 to 15 across parts of north ga, sc, and nc with single digits in the mountains..with probably some sub zero temps in the highest elevations. If it verifies, that's not something you see very often for the last day of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The GGEM has probably snow for S GA? Do you mean the new 12Z or the 0Z? The 0Z definitely doesn't have snow for S GA, SE SC and SE NC as the 850's are well above 0C. It isn't even close. What does the 12Z have if that's already out for next weekend? I'm trying to figure out why you said the model has snow for these areas. Snow in these areas is serious business because it is so rare, especially in S GA/SE SC. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=192 Holy cow! Thanks. I was confused since I didn't realize there already was a 12Z GGEM run out that early in the day that goes out to day 10 and you didn't say 12Z. So you were referring to the 12Z GGEM, which (verbatim) indeed does, incredibly enough, have for 3/1 a mix for the upper part of SE GA (its 850's of 0 to +3 are consistent with this) and a snow to a mix for SE SC as well as the entire coasts of SC and NC due to that very suppressed track to which you referred along with a very cold CAD'ing 1040 mb high in the NE providing cold NE winds and allowing no ocean related warm modification. The Miller A traveling ENE as far south as over St. Myers, FL, is consistent with the very rare far south track that can give these far south areas wintry precip., even as late as early March. Of course, this is the Crazy Uncle on day 8. So humongous grain of salt even if very interesting to see. Edit: The King is about to have his say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The 12Z Euro has the Miller A back for 2/28-3/1! More details later. Edit: Snow 3/1 for Delta/Macon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The 12Z Euro has the Miller A back for 2/28-3/1! More details later. Edit: Snow 3/1 for Delta/Macon! Yep, threat definitely still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Southern stream wave looks much better this run out west. It plows through the western ridge rather than riding up and over the ridge a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Southern stream wave looks much better this run out west. It plows through the western ridge rather than riding up and over the ridge a bit. Great look, still suppressed but 8 days out last thing we want is perfectly tracking storm only to move NW inside 5 days. Some model agreement with CMC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Also the the other low in the pacific didn't move east as quickly, we need that to sit tight to allow the SLP to amplify and come up the coast some. Agree/disagree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Yep, threat definitely still there. The 12Z Euro has snow from Columbus to Macon to Columbia to SE NC 2/28-3/1 with 850's of 0 to -1C from a Miller A that goes from the SE tip of LA to Daytona Beach and then well out to sea. This is closer to the 12Z Euro of yesterday. If I'm in one of those cities, that's the track I'd want! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Would love that run if along I-85 corridor. Late-season climo would say track has to come north. The 12Z Euro has snow from Columbus to Macon to Columbia to SE NC 2/28-3/1 with 850's of 0 to -1C from a Miller A that goes from the SE tip of LA to Daytona Beach and then well out to sea. This is closer to the 12Z Euro of yesterday. If I'm in one of those cities, that's the track I'd want! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The 12Z Euro has snow from Columbus to Macon to Columbia to SE NC 2/28-3/1 with 850's of 0 to -1C from a Miller A that goes from the SE tip of LA to Daytona Beach and then well out to sea. This is closer to the 12Z Euro of yesterday. If I'm in one of those cities, that's the track I'd want! Definitely, as modeled would be a nice snow event for those locations. PGV jackpots again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Also the the other low in the pacific didn't move east as quickly, we need that to sit tight to allow the SLP to amplify and come up the coast some. Agree/disagree? Yeah, you're right, the next big sstream wave off California is a little slower. I like having it there since it pumps up the western ridging behind our storm wave. The question mark is along the east coast - we need the SE Canada PV for the cold air, but at the same time it can't be too overpowering so as to shear out our wave as it tracks into the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Definitely, as modeled would be a nice snow event for those locations. PGV jackpots again! I find it interesting that both the 12Z GGEM and 12Z Euro have snow for parts of the deep south from a very suppressed/suppressed Miller A ~3/1 but yet there is a 1040 NE CAD high on the GGEM and no real CAD/NE centered high on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Good to see the Euro jump back towards a Miller A and for the Canadian to follow suit. That's a pretty close run of the Euro for places on the northern fringes like Birmingham and Columbia. Interesting. Climo would probably argue for the track to shift north given the time of year if we see a storm at all. The D10 storm on the Euro is no longer a cutter, either. Looks like it might Miller B us, but there's a solid CAD signature in there, so it might start off as snow before going over to sleet/freezing rain in the CAD areas. I guess the 2/26 Brick Tamland Storm isn't that far away for N NC, either, though it appears to be mostly cold chasing the moisture, so that will probably fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The 12Z Euro has the Miller A back for 2/28-3/1! More details later. Edit: Snow 3/1 for Delta/Macon! hmmm...what is that snow word you speak of sir? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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