Tacoma Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Robert has a good write-up tonight saying someone in the southeast toward the end of next week or next weekend 1-3 could see a snowstorm to remember with the way things are looking. Let's hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Robert has a good write-up tonight saying someone in the southeast toward the end of next week or next weekend 1-3 could see a snowstorm to remember with the way things are looking. Let's hope so. It was a good read, I didn't even notice how far north the HP stretches, just crazy...GEFS below shows it nicely too. Not sure I recall ever seeing it stretch like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I agree with Robert that this is probably our first real stable pattern that's pretty easy to read. There's very likely to be a big storm in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I agree with Robert that this is probably our first real stable pattern that's pretty easy to read. There's very likely to be a big storm in the area. I agree about the pattern as a whole. The devil is going to be in the details. Unfortunately, in a split flow type of pattern like this, how the streams interact together will be the deciding factor. Those kinds of details are going to be very difficult to predict at long leads. I would expect a variety of solutions to continue to be shown, even though the base pattern looks fairly predictable. Overall, I'm happy about where things stand at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Well the EPS did back off for KCAE recently. One thing I notice is the monster High deals coming through the Conus... that in itself spells storm tracks to stay across FL or even further South. I'm beginning to think some of us here in the SE might get a historic Winter storms. I can't put my finger on it yet.. but CLT northward seem the best bet right now. If that PV can stay South longer... then we have a real chance down here in the deep South. Either way; we are talking 30 members + for areas in NC showing Winter weather.. and not even half that around KCAE.... Those highs and the PV have to be watched for sure. Thinking the models (long range like CFS) weren't too far off on a below normal March by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Truncation kills another one on the 0z gfs. At 192 there is a good piece of energy diving south around Tx/La, but after that truncation kills it. I just saw where DT posted on FB about the 18z gfs went poof after hr 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Truncation kills another one on the 0z gfs. At 192 there is a good piece of energy diving south around Tx/La, but after that truncation kills it. I just saw where DT posted on FB about the 18z gfs went poof after hr 192. Yeah earlier today on the 18z run, I was looking at that and thinking that there was really no reason for that southern stream wave to be weakening like that as it moves east...granted it was post truncation. Now, on this 00z run, the PV is exerting its influence farther south...so it's colder, but the confluence extends farther south and is crushing the southern wave. That will be a problem even on the Euro if the PV is overpowering and doesn't move off to the NE a bit and out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Truncation kills another one on the 0z gfs. At 192 there is a good piece of energy diving south around Tx/La, but after that truncation kills it. I just saw where DT posted on FB about the 18z gfs went poof after hr 192. DT also explicitly told me earlier this year how I was dangerous to weather forecasting because I asked him why someone of his calibur would call Winter over after the last event we saw: This point is.. he's a MID Atlantic Winter weather fiend. I don't take much of what he goes with to heart. So a week ago he said Winter was over... and now he says to look for a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 DT also explicitly told me earlier this year how I was dangerous to weather forecasting because I asked him why someone of his calibur would call Winter over after the last event we saw: This point is.. he's a MID Atlantic Winter weather fiend. I don't take much of what he goes with to heart. So a week ago he said Winter was over... and now he says to look for a storm? LOL, too funny. I've been reading DT for a long time and like you, I take a lot of what he says w/ a grain of salt. But he is correct concerning truncation on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Yeah earlier today on the 18z run, I was looking at that and thinking that there was really no reason for that southern stream wave to be weakening like that as it moves east...granted it was post truncation. Now, on this 00z run, the PV is exerting its influence farther south...so it's colder, but the confluence extends farther south and is crushing the southern wave. That will be a problem even on the Euro if the PV is overpowering and doesn't move off to the NE a bit and out of the way. I agree grit...If the PV comes as far south as projected on the 0z gfs it could be cold and dry here in NC as most storms would be suppressed south. That is something you pointed out on one of your earlier posts and something that will have to monitored on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 DT also explicitly told me earlier this year how I was dangerous to weather forecasting because I asked him why someone of his calibur would call Winter over after the last event we saw: This point is.. he's a MID Atlantic Winter weather fiend. I don't take much of what he goes with to heart. So a week ago he said Winter was over... and now he says to look for a storm? My favorite part about his response is how he tries to prove his intelligence by comparing it to the pure nonsense proposed by Accuweather and TWC. It's not hard to make yourself seem like a professional when you compare yourself to those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 My favorite part about his response is how he tries to prove his intelligence by comparing it to the pure nonsense proposed by Accuweather and TWC. It's not hard to make yourself seem like a professional when you compare yourself to those. It's alright Jacob. I probably shouldn't have even posted that repsonse here in the main thread... What I will say.. is if the PV is furhter South.. we here in SC and even Asheville can end up dry. We have a higher chance for bigger snows here in SC if it happens.. but just as easily.. we have a chance for a Cuba storm... pretty much as RDUWX said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I think at 8 days out or so , I will take my chances with suppression ! I would rather have a cold and dry pattern, than to have a rainstorm and 35 degrees. Getting the cold here is always half the battle, the Euro should be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The cmc is warmer do to the PV being further north. It has a storm in the gulf around 2/28 but never really does anything which is kind of strange w/ the PV being futher north. Oh well, off to bed. I will have to check the euro in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Is anyone up watching the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Is anyone up watching the Euro? Yes, I'm up watching the Great One. Only the Great One is capable of keeping me up so late. Warning: at hour 144, it is much different from hour 156 of 12Z...could mean much different outcome in 8-10! Stay tuned to this BB for further details. Brick better be in bed! Edit: Some snow N NC on 2/26 fwiw. Edit #2: This is one of the reasons I hope Brick is in bed. The 0Z doesn't have that Miller A of 3/1. Too dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Yes, I'm up watching the Great One. Only the Great One is capable of keeping me up so late. Warning: at hour 144, it is much different from hour 156 of 12Z...could mean much different outcome in 8-10! Stay tuned to this BB for further details. Brick better be in bed! Edit: Some snow N NC on 2/26 fwiw. Edit #2: This is one of the reasons I hope Brick is in bed. The 0Z doesn't have that Miller A of 3/1. Too dry I can't say I'm particularly surprised. There wasn't much support from other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Yeah, but does it have the cold? Cold chasing rain won't do....just won't do at all. Goofy's letting me down. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Yeah, but does it have the cold? Cold chasing rain won't do....just won't do at all. Goofy's letting me down. T T, After 2/28, that magical blue line stays well north of you. I hope I'll be able to sleep peacefully and don't have King induced nightmares. Edit: this is a run not fit for either man nor Brick. (all in fun!) Edit #2: This is the kind of run that makes me wish DST were already here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Yeah, not a good run at all. The post-D10 storm is setting up to cut, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 T, After 2/28, that magical blue line stays well north of you. I hope I'll be able to sleep peacefully and don't have King induced nightmares. Edit: this is a run not fit for either man nor Brick. (all in fun!) Edit #2: This is the kind of run that makes me wish DST were already here. Better times on the next runs! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro ensembles anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Yes, I'm up watching the Great One. Only the Great One is capable of keeping me up so late. Warning: at hour 144, it is much different from hour 156 of 12Z...could mean much different outcome in 8-10! Stay tuned to this BB for further details. Brick better be in bed! Edit: Some snow N NC on 2/26 fwiw. Edit #2: This is one of the reasons I hope Brick is in bed. The 0Z doesn't have that Miller A of 3/1. Too dry Fine with me. I would not mind spring coming now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 DT also explicitly told me earlier this year how I was dangerous to weather forecasting because I asked him why someone of his calibur would call Winter over after the last event we saw: This point is.. he's a MID Atlantic Winter weather fiend. I don't take much of what he goes with to heart. So a week ago he said Winter was over... and now he says to look for a storm? He's also crazy and acts like a jerk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 When is the cold supposed to set in here? My NWS forecast has 30's for lows and 50's for highs through Thursday next week. Barely ever gets below freezing. Perhaps they're not buying in to the arctic invasion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro ensembles anyone? Reading the MA forum, looks like they don't support the Op in showing nothing next weekend, though the big dog signal isn't there. They also don't support the cutter scenario for the storm after that one either....again, that's just from reading the comments in MA. My opinion hasn't changed. There is are going to be timing differences in this pattern at these leads, and solutions are going to change from run to run. Just look at the 2/26 thing. That was completely gone and now it's starting to show back up. It looks too warm for anything other than rain, at the moment, but it doesn't look dry like it did a day or two ago. Lots still up in the air and won't be hammered out for a few days yet. Overall pattern is about as good as we're going to get this year, so the potential is still very much there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'm sticking with Robert, says this is much more than what the models say about next weekend. There's a lot happening that these models don't realize until a couple of days out. Robert has a great track record, so I believe I'll take my chances with him that they'll be a possible snowstorm next weekend somewhere in the southeast. Then he says a possibility of another after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 When is the cold supposed to set in here? My NWS forecast has 30's for lows and 50's for highs through Thursday next week. Barely ever gets below freezing. Perhaps they're not buying in to the arctic invasion? They always buy in slowly. I wouldn't sweat it yet. It doesn't look to get obscenely cold like it did a few days ago. That's fine though...we don't want suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I just looked at GSO's EPS output before heading out the door this morning so I can't verify this is true for other cities in the SE, but it looked like the EPS mean was halved from yesterday's 12s run. There is a little more support for the Brick Tamland Storm on 2/26, though (if you can call 0.2" "support"). It is a bit discouraging, but we still have some time, though it is concerning that, at least seemingly, the Euro is trending towards the other suppressed models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'm sticking with Robert, says this is much more than what the models say about next weekend. There's a lot happening that these models don't realize until a couple of days out. Robert has a great track record, so I believe I'll take my chances with him that they'll be a possible snowstorm next weekend somewhere in the southeast. Then he says a possibility of another after next weekend. The models must be totally off then, because my local forecast is sunny and in the 50s all next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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