BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro says book your reservation at Shaggy's house Looks like we do just ok this run. The one thing this event would have going for it is the cold airmass hanging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Ens will be very interesting. Love the track (generally). Classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Ens will be very interesting. Love the track (generally). Classic! Ens mean last night was even more suppressed than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Ens mean last night was even more suppressed than this I'm fine with that. Either it eventually comes up a little or our friends down south get something....better than our friends up north. I really like the look, though. A strengthening Miller A taking the low road. The High isn't in an ideal spot, but it's close enough. With the storm strengthening quickly, it'll draw in enough colder air aloft for us to give us snow, assuming the track isn't too far north. I would love to see a clown map for this one. And there's another southern stream system on its heals with a wall of big HP to the north. Fun times ahead.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm fine with that. Either it eventually comes up a little or our friends down south get something....better than our friends up north. I really like the look, though. A strengthening Miller A taking the low road. The High isn't in an ideal spot, but it's close enough. With the storm strengthening quickly, it'll draw in enough colder air aloft for us to give us snow, assuming the track isn't too far north. I would love to see a clown map for this one. And there's another southern stream system on its heals with a wall of big HP to the north. Fun times ahead.... Just for fun the SV maps are showing close to 6" for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 wxbell clown has 7.5" to 9.5" across Wake county. 13" from Greenville, NC to Elizabeth City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Awesome...thanks guys. I think that would be legit snow with this setup. Not that it matters this far out, but it's fun to look at and in a few weeks, we won't get to look at clown maps anymore for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 wxbell clown has 7.5" to 9.5" across Wake county. 13" from Greenville, NC to Elizabeth City I like that even more. It's hard to get an exact amount on the SV maps. A lot of estimation involved and I'm usually on the low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The storm dropping down into the 4 corners at 240 on the Euro looks even more interesting. Possible 1-2 punch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Ens will be very interesting. Love the track (generally). Classic! Agreed. That's what I'm talking about. My favorite is the 850s are near Columbia. Old school!! I was grateful for our last storm but the huge transition to sleet was a fly in the snowy ointment. Hopefully we can keep this storm with this look. If so, best winter eva... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Agreed. That's what I'm talking about. My favorite is the 850s are near Columbia. Old school!! I was grateful for our last storm but the huge transition to sleet was a fly in the snowy ointment. Hopefully we can keep this storm with this look. If so, best winter eva... The early transition to snow with the last event had more to do with column saturation than 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Trading the Nat Gas run. Seems earlier hopes of a big cold breakout for SE are being suppressed... storm track too through next week (GSP AFD, this afternoon). I read the posts, wavering as they are... model mongers. Overall... this doesn't seem as big a winter weather plausibility (through March 1) as it did a few days ago. Is my general sense "in line"? Sorry... if I'm out of line. Looking for general sense of latest developments. BTW - 76 here. Used no gas in last 3 days. Next Thursday's NG drawdown may be less than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The early transition to snow with the last event had more to do with column saturation than 850 temps. The early transition to sleet yes; however I thought we were in the crosshairs of the transition anyway because of the rise in temps aloft. Looking at the track and temps it looks like this would be colder for CLT and less of a sleet issue hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm just blown away by the level of cold all the models are showing in the northern plains and southern canada. It's already cold before hour 132 but after 132, the bottom drops out on 850mb temps associated with the polar vortex/cold pocket that was originally over siberia Euro has what looks like a pocket of -40c 850mb temps in central Manitoba and western ontario around 144 hours. (I say looks like since the precip maps show temps somewhere between -36c and -40c but another map shows -40c). This is like 22 to 25 degrees celcious below average for that area! That is insane. Although it finally modifies by day 10, it's still extremely cold..with the euro showing widespread -30F over southern canada for several days and by day 10 "warming" into the -10s and -20s. And to think, it could be even colder at the surface than what the euro is showing up there. The core of the cold just barely stays north of the border but 850s do drop below -30c for a while (as low as -36c into northern mn at one point) with surface temps into the -20s and even -30s on the last day of Feb. I just can't get over seeing those types of temps for this time of year. I mean -30s in the U.S. just one day removed from march? Just amazing cold. I wonder where this would put this winter in the northern plains/great lakes at in terms of temps. It's hard to imagine a winter being more consistently cold up there than this year...although I admit it's not my area of expertise. A bit disappointing though that the pattern is similar to the pattern earlier in the season where the super cold stays just north of the southern US and has a hard time penetrating into the southeast. I know it would likely squash any systems if it did come this far south but the euro actually has it far enough north that rain instead of snow and ice, would be likely south of Tn and Nc..which really sucks considering how cold it is to the north. I'd hate to miss out on a winter storm because it's too warm while the coldest air for this time of year in decades occupies the northern half of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Trading the Nat Gas run. Seems earlier hopes of a big cold breakout for SE are being suppressed... storm track too through next week (GSP AFD, this afternoon). I read the posts, wavering as they are... model mongers. Overall... this doesn't seem as big a winter weather plausibility (through March 1) as it did a few days ago. Is my general sense "in line"? Sorry... if I'm out of line. Looking for general sense of latest developments. BTW - 76 here. Used no gas in last 3 days. Next Thursday's NG drawdown may be less than expected. Investing based on the gfs is a bad idea imo. Its been struggling even within 3 days. I think following the euro would be a much better bet if you are using weather models to invest. It still shows good potential for next week into the weekend so I wouldn't be too quick to jump on the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm just blown away by the level of cold all the models are showing in the northern plains and southern canada. It's already cold before hour 132 but after 132, the bottom drops out on 850mb temps associated with the polar vortex/cold pocket that was originally over siberia Euro has what looks like a pocket of -40c 850mb temps in central Manitoba and western ontario around 144 hours. (I say looks like since the precip maps show temps somewhere between -36c and -40c but another map shows -40c). This is like 22 to 25 degrees celcious below average for that area! That is insane. Although it finally modifies by day 10, it's still extremely cold..with the euro showing widespread -30F over southern canada for several days and by day 10 "warming" into the -10s and -20s. And to think, it could be even colder at the surface than what the euro is showing up there. The core of the cold just barely stays north of the border but 850s do drop below -30c for a while (as low as -36c into northern mn at one point) with surface temps into the -20s and even -30s on the last day of Feb. I just can't get over seeing those types of temps for this time of year. I mean -30s in the U.S. just one day removed from march? Just amazing cold. I wonder where this would put this winter in the northern plains/great lakes at in terms of temps. It's hard to imagine a winter being more consistently cold up there than this year...although I admit it's not my area of expertise. A bit disappointing though that the pattern is similar to the pattern earlier in the season where the super cold stays just north of the southern US and has a hard time penetrating into the southeast. I know it would likely squash any systems if it did come this far south but the euro actually has it far enough north that rain instead of snow and ice, would be likely south of Tn and Nc..which really sucks considering how cold it is to the north. I'd hate to miss out on a winter storm because it's too warm while the coldest air for this time of year in decades occupies the northern half of the country. -20 850's as low as DC, pretty impressive. Single digit lows in Central NC and it's not because of the snow pack. FRIGID for March. Reminds me of that disco a few pages back where people were getting confused about Degrees C anomaly maps and how cold it would actually get, here you can see what it was trying to show....cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 12z Euro ENS looks similar to the 0z Euro ENS mean, a little SE of the 12z Op, I would expect the individual members to be about the same as the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 12z Euro ENS looks similar to the 0z Euro ENS mean, a little SE of the 12z Op, I would expect the individual members to be about the same as the 0z run. Sprawling parent sfc high across southern Canada extending into the Northeast states on the Euro Ens with weak cold air damming at hr192. Sfc low is in the northeast Gulf at hr204, then it moves east off Florida. 850mb 0 deg line not quite as cold as the Euro Op. I think the look out west is good with the undercutting southern stream wave and the trailing kicker wave that pumps up ridging behind our storm wave. The muddier part to me is in the east and northeast in terms of how the PV behaves...i.e. does it move into SE Canada and allow sfc high to work into the midwest and deliver the cold air, while suppressing the storm track and at the same time allowing some amplification of the southern stream system to get the precip thrown north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Verbatim, Euro looks a little too warm for N/GA N/AL and the LP does really draw in any cold air till after it passes. The track is textbook though, long way to go with this one. To be honest I'm happy it shows a system in that location and time frame consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The next system (Mar 3) on the Euro Ens is a Miller B with cold air damming and sfc high over the northeast working off the coast. Cold rain or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The next system (Mar 3) on the Euro Ens is a Miller B with cold air damming and sfc high over the northeast working off the coast. Cold rain or ice.I think the big storm last week started out looking like a miller B early on in the 7-10 runs, but turned into mostly a miller A. So we need to keep an eye on it. All these storms rolling through and seriously cold air to the north= good times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 so is wnc, upstate, ne ga, e. tn and central nc looking at a possible threat of snow next Thursday thru Sunday time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro ensemble mean snow graphs are fairly unimpressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 12z Euro ENS looks similar to the 0z Euro ENS mean, a little SE of the 12z Op, I would expect the individual members to be about the same as the 0z run. Is it better to use the ens mean or count the number of individual members at this point? It seems like we sometimes see a handful of members that are suppressed and a couple that are north and amped up. Doesn't this give us a mean that looks favorable, but in reality little or none of the members show a good setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro ensemble mean snow graphs are fairly unimpressed lots of time for all of this to blossom into a nice snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Way out in fantasyland fwiw on 18Z GFS 3/6-7: classic Miller A and at least a close call...Cold air to the north marginal. So, model's clown unimpressed although some does fall with 850's 0C or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The EPS mean actually ticked down for GSO (I did not check other stations in prior runs, so I have no way to compare other cities). There's a pretty solid amount of members that are showing snow, but the several of the members that were showing HECS-style big dogs are now "only" showing in the 6-9" range. There's four in the 6-9" range and one in the 9"+ range. If I had to guess, the EPS members moved towards a more suppressed solution than before, hence the lack of big dogs, but that's just a guess. It's still not horrible for the LR, I guess, at around 1.5" SN. Of course, the EPS mean is lower for CLT, so maybe it's not just suppression. I don't know. Looks like 31 members are onboard for snow at GSO, but the majority of those are light or moderate events. Personally, I'd have no complaints with a 2-4" event... Overall, I still consider today's runs to be encouraging. It seems like suppression could be the main enemy at this point (famous last words...) and I'll take that over the alternative. Nevertheless, there appears to be no reason to go all-in or even partially in without some model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Just my opinion, but the later we get, the less likely we are to see suppression as an issue. Would be unusual this late, but this is an unusual year. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Way out in fantasyland fwiw on 18Z GFS 3/6-7: classic Miller A and at least a close call...Cold air to the north marginal. So, model's clown unimpressed although some does fall with 850's 0C or lower. wait a minute what happened to 26-28 or march 1-3, now we're talking march 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The EPS mean actually ticked down for GSO (I did not check other stations in prior runs, so I have no way to compare other cities). There's a pretty solid amount of members that are showing snow, but the several of the members that were showing HECS-style big dogs are now "only" showing in the 6-9" range. There's four in the 6-9" range and one in the 9"+ range. If I had to guess, the EPS members moved towards a more suppressed solution than before, hence the lack of big dogs, but that's just a guess. It's still not horrible for the LR, I guess, at around 1.5" SN. Of course, the EPS mean is lower for CLT, so maybe it's not just suppression. I don't know. Looks like 31 members are onboard for snow at GSO, but the majority of those are light or moderate events. Personally, I'd have no complaints with a 2-4" event... Overall, I still consider today's runs to be encouraging. It seems like suppression could be the main enemy at this point (famous last words...) and I'll take that over the alternative. Nevertheless, there appears to be no reason to go all-in or even partially in without some model agreement. I think for a day 9 modeled event it's pretty good to have 31 of 50 members showing something (60% of the members). For the Feb 12 event from 6 days out the EPS mean snowfall was half of what the Op was showing. Will see, if we get much past the first week of March it's gong to be very very tough to get snow east of the mountains. So we got 2 more weeks of model watching, at most. Also, the 18z GEFS is starting to show some members with a storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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