burgertime Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'd say it looked OK. Still many members showing nothing Mean at RDU is 1/6th of the OP's output, 2" Mean for CLT is 1/3 or so below 2" I'd like at least half the members showing snow and the ensembles at least 50% of the OPs output. I guess I should have said ENS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'd say it looked OK. Still many members showing nothing Mean at RDU is 1/6th of the OP's output, 2" Mean for CLT is 1/3 or so below 2" I'd like at least half the members showing snow and the ensembles at least 50% of the OPs output. The trend is decent, though. I can only speak for GSO as I had not looked at past runs for other cities, but last night's 00z EPS mean showed practically nothing while yesterday's showed 1.2". Now, last night's mean was up to close to 2.5" with most members onboard with something and a fair amount onboard for a decent event. With that being said, I'm hardly feeling good about this one at the moment as I'd really like to see some other models jump onboard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 From DT's facebook post...the purple line is his approximation of the R/S line He kind of tinkled me with this. "snowfall maps show an enormous area of 1 to 2 feet of snow from Raleigh to Boston." I know with a track like that 1 foot is going to be asking alot and will most likely have more mixing concerns the snow. This looks like a good mountain storm shaping up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'd say it looked OK. Still many members showing nothing Mean at RDU is 1/6th of the OP's output, 2" Mean for CLT is 1/3 or so below 2" I'd like at least half the members showing snow and the ensembles at least 50% of the OPs output. I'm guessing the issues with the maps showing little or no accum. is temp. Certainly looks like there'd be plenty of moisture to work with. But that setup screams warm layer with perhaps a sprinkling of back side snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Overall pattern seems great, but what worries me is the only "blips" on the models are for storms that form north of the gulf. I really don't like the track of the storms the EURO keeps putting out. If they were to verify I wouldn't be surprised for NC to be left out of the game and for it to be a VA and north storm. Would like to see the southern energy be more south, I guess to get a nice gulf low. Maybe it's too far out anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 12z gfs shows a storm around 3/1 but it's S & E of what the euro showed last night. That could be a good thing considering it's the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 12z gfs shows a storm around 3/1 but it's S & E of what the euro showed last night. That could be a good thing considering it's the gfs. Yeah, for the GFS, that's a good looking southern stream wave traversing the deep south hrs 204-216. Hard to say on the cold air. Does it stay bottled up more to our north and northwest, or does the arctic air spill down farther than currently shown? It would be better to have the PV move more into SE Canada than have it hovering north of the Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 He kind of tinkled me with this. "snowfall maps show an enormous area of 1 to 2 feet of snow from Raleigh to Boston." I know with a track like that 1 foot is going to be asking alot and will most likely have more mixing concerns the snow. This looks like a good mountain storm shaping up though. DT tinkled you? Seriously, the Euro ENS mean is something nice to start with on this storm. The GGEM also showing potential is helpful. The GFS will hopefully join the party soon. As Robert posted last night, it appears that something is afoot next week. The R/S line is impossible to predict right now, but a potential split flow with an Alaskan block and big highs spells lots of fun and games "somewhere" across the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Yeah, for the GFS, that's a good looking southern stream wave traversing the deep south hrs 204-216. Hard to say on the cold air. Does it stay bottled up more to our north and northwest, or does the arctic air spill down farther than currently shown? It would be better to have the PV move more into SE Canada than have it hovering north of the Great Lakes With at 1044 HP moving into the Lakes, I feel ok about the cold, even though it doesn't look all that great verbatim...that's some very cold air in Canada. And the GFS keeps us pretty much in the game through the end of the run. Repeating pattern. Could be a very exciting period! Could also turn into nothing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 With at 1044 HP moving into the Lakes, I feel ok about the cold, even though it doesn't look all that great verbatim...that's some very cold air in Canada. And the GFS keeps us pretty much in the game through the end of the run. Repeating pattern. Could be a very exciting period! Could also turn into nothing too. I think to a fault I always question whether the cold will be readily available until I see the whites of its eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The 12z Canadian suppresses our concerned storm into oblivion with a 1048 mb HP strengthening to 1052 mb to our north. I guess that might not be a bad thing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I think to a fault I always question whether the cold will be readily available until I see the whites of its eyes Ha! I know man. I'm the same way sometimes. Aint nothing wrong with that point of view. In fact, I do too unless I see a big strong high in a good position and the cold air source is good. Then, I tend not to worry as much about it....probably to a fault as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The 12z Canadian suppresses our concerned storm into oblivion. I guess that might not be a bad thing at this point. Kinda dovetailing on what Grit said, I think at these leads, seeing the cold in place and dealing with suppression is a better place to be than seeing marginal cold air and an inland track. NW seems to be a little easier to achieve (congrats PGV??), although the last storm didn't adhere to that theory as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 IF PGV jackpots at 18"+ plus you guys are more than welcome to come stay at Shaggys house for the storm .....I will continue to watch and wait, though it is kinda cool to be jackpotted on Monday and then again when the storm came back last night lets see what this afternoons run of the Euro does with it.....hope this means something and those maps and the fact the date Mar 1 1980 keeps popping up on analogs, but really in this time frame we want suppressed and cold across the board I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 IF PGV jackpots at 18"+ plus you guys are more than welcome to come stay at Shaggys house for the storm .....I will continue to watch and wait, though it is kinda cool to be jackpotted on Monday and then again when the storm came back last night lets see what this afternoons run of the Euro does with it.....hope this means something and those maps and the fact the date Mar 1 1980 keeps popping up on analogs, but really in this time frame we want suppressed and cold across the board I think. Folks, Reminder: Keep in mind that all Euro snow amounts (operational/ensemble) are based on a 10:1 ratio for any kind of wintry precip. So, unless it is pure snow, it overstates snow amounts vs. what it is actually predicting such as it did for the last storm for many areas. So, if it shows, say 10" of snow, that would tell me that it has qpf of 1" for wintry precip. of some kind or combo. I really wish they'd fix it. It is such a joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Folks, Reminder: Keep in mind that all Euro snow amounts (operational/ensemble) are based on a 10:1 ratio for any kind of wintry precip. So, unless it is pure snow, it overstates snow amounts vs. what it is actually predicting such as it did for the last storm for many areas. So, if it shows, say 10" of snow, that would tell me that it has qpf of 1" for wintry precip. of some kind or combo. I really wish they'd fix it. It is such a joke! The best snowfall maps I have seen from the Euro are put out on the EuroWX site... which is really cheap..... it's the way these vendors are generating all precip as snow.. they don't have ice accumulation maps last i checked though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Folks, Reminder: Keep in mind that all Euro snow amounts (operational/ensemble) are based on a 10:1 ratio for any kind of wintry precip. So, unless it is pure snow, it overstates snow amounts vs. what it is actually predicting such as it did for the last storm for many areas. So, if it shows, say 10" of snow, that would tell me that it has qpf of 1" for wintry precip. of some kind or combo. I really wish they'd fix it. It is such a joke! I know thus the IF in my post, I would suspect with the track shown most in fact would not be snow..I hope that changes though plenty of time for this to trend all over the place and it will I am sure before its all said and done......of course I hope that the storm makes good on the 18" lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 One problem is the PV starts lifting north day 9 which allows the storm to also climb north, have to see if it can hang on. I am not worried about supression but rather the inevitable north trend. I do think there will be a winter storm next weekend on the east coast somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Looks like a big storm coming on the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Looks like a big storm coming on the 12z euro. Looks like a southern slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 1043MB High over Wisconsin with a low just SE of the LA coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I think the maps will be impressive just from looking at the maps at 500. Looks like an Oklahoma/Arkansas/Tennessee/Carolinas slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Not a bad track. From Ji in the MA thread: Edit: Holy Cow that's some strong High Pressure up north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Big kicker low coming into CA keeps it heading east instead of allowing it to ride up the coast, a southern slider would work very nicely if you want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 It's more suppressed and colder...When our southern stream wave is in Texas, the PV is centered more toward SE Canada this run instead of being elongated across the Great Lakes. This allowed more cold air to filter in and keep the storm track suppressed. 850mb low tracks a little inland of the gulf coast to off SC coast - last night's run tracked it across northern AL/GA to Charlotte, to Norfolk. Pretty consistent look going right now for a southern stream wave to undercut the western ridging and ram into a cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Much better track for the SE. Here's hr 216 from Alan via twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 That's the 4th Euro run in a row showing a storm in the east and steadily the SLP track has been shifting SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Anybody got euro total qpf for the southern slider? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 IF PGV jackpots at 18"+ plus you guys are more than welcome to come stay at Shaggys house for the storm Euro says book your reservation at Shaggy's house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Much better track for the SE. Here's hr 216 from Alan via twitter: Image Deleted. Wow, that track looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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