packbacker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 A lot of that in NC is ZR. I love the Euro but I hate the Euro clown. True, more of a frzn to sleet to snow deal. The Euro Op day 8 setup is a nice setup, PV sitting right over the lakes or just north, strong -AO a nice -NAO, looks to be active STJ. 1040+ HP's rounding the base of the PV too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 True, more of a frzn to sleet to snow deal. The Euro Op day 8 setup is a nice setup, PV sitting right over the lakes or just north, strong -AO a nice -NAO, looks to be active STJ. 1040+ HP's rounding the base of the PV too. MJO going into phase 8 as well, probably the most favorable setup all winter in terms of indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I’m guessing the EURO ensemble member’s are showing a bunch of snow as the mean appears to have a surface low track along the gulf coast and off the atlantic in the 204 to 228hr timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I’m guessing the EURO ensemble member’s are showing a bunch of snow as the mean appears to have a surface low track along the gulf coast and off the atlantic in the 204 to 228hr timeframe. Further east than the OP. Op is HECS: only 8 days away. if Op and it's ensembles can get in line at 12z today and 0z tonight, it might be time to fire up the bus again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I’m guessing the EURO ensemble member’s are showing a bunch of snow as the mean appears to have a surface low track along the gulf coast and off the atlantic in the 204 to 228hr timeframe.not really showing alot for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm with you. Easley almost always gets half of what everyone else in the Upstate gets and it is very frustrating when relatives in Simpsonville double us up. You wouldn't think 15 minutes away would make such a difference, but it does. The wierd thing is that Walhalla/Salem usually beat us as well, and they are even closer to the mountains, literally. I do, however, remember some brutally cols winters with alot of snow growing up in Salem during the 80's. Nothing like Upstate New York where I spent many years as a child, but way more wintery than Easley has been for the last 26 years. I think that you guys and Clemson get the absolute shortest end of the stick. guys......you have nothing on downtown Greenville (I've been here since '89, so I know I missed the greate '87 and '88 winters here)......except 2 events.....The 2005 ice storm and the 2010 Christmas storm (I measured 7 inch, but it all fall overnight). Even the Supersotrm was a pultry 5 or 6 inches IMBY. I get extremely frustrated watching simpsonville, greenwood, spartanburg, charlotte, ne ga and even the coast get decent accumulations while we seem to get the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 guys......you have nothing on downtown Greenville (I've been here since '89, so I know I missed the greate '87 and '88 winters here)......except 2 events.....The 2005 ice storm and the 2010 Christmas storm (I measured 7 inch, but it all fall overnight). Even the Supersotrm was a pultry 5 or 6 inches IMBY. I get extremely frustrated watching simpsonville, greenwood, spartanburg, charlotte, ne ga and even the coast get decent accumulations while we seem to get the shaft.You forgot 2002 ! That was an amazing ice storm! I was living on Haywood rd! The models are showing great possibilities for atleast the next two weeks, so maybe we get another shot or two!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 not really showing alot for my area. I don’t have access to individual members. It could be a case of a few really amped rainy members while the rest are suppressed and not generating any precip. The Euro control mean looks juicy. It basically looks just like the operational except the surface low is a little further south along the GA/Florida border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 00z Euro EPS members (Wintry weather).KCAE: 15KCEU: 17KGSP: 22KFLO: 17KATL: 15KAGS: 10Slowly but surely.. lets see what 12z says later this evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro control run is nuts, N-GA, SC, NC big snow storm, PGV jackpots with 18"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro control run is nuts, N-GA, SC, NC big snow storm, PGV jackpots with 18"+. Can't really find many "good" maps.. but it seems to me the track per that control would be okay for even many in the Midlands of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro control run is nuts, N-GA, SC, NC big snow storm, PGV jackpots with 18"+. What is the time period for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 What is the time period for this? Next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 00z Euro EPS members (Wintry weather). KCAE: 15 KCEU: 17 KGSP: 22 KFLO: 17 KATL: 15 KAGS: 10 Slowly but surely.. lets see what 12z says later this evening! Over 30+ members for central NC locations. As you go further north its even more members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I will be very surprised if we get through the next Tuesday - Sunday period without something to track. The pattern generally looks pretty good on all of the operational models. It's not ideal, but it's pretty darn good. PV nearby, split flow, big western ridge, strong arctic high pressure to the north and northwest. I still wouldn't give up on the 25th and 26th yet. There will be energy in the flow, but as always, it will come down to timing/potential phasing. I would not be surprised to be tracking a big dog very soon. The CPC indecies still look like garbage in the LR, but over the next week or so, they don't look too bad. The CFS continues to look cold for March, and the MJO looks like it *might* get to Phase 8, just looking at the phase diagrams for the various models. We'll see on that. The bottom line is, the pattern is looking good. All systems go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Next weekend. Don't tell him. He'll start up the storm thread to early again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Don't tell him. He'll start up the storm thread to early again! I might not have been too far off from the last one I started. Oh, and go Heels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Over 30+ members for central NC locations. As you go further north its even more members. Euro control run is nuts, N-GA, SC, NC big snow storm, PGV jackpots with 18"+. showing anything for wnc in this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Lookout, It is definitely maddening to basically get less snow than everyone year after year. I know people probably get tired of hearing me grip about being screwed, but venting on here does provide me with a little bit of relief. I have been old enough to actively follow every snow threat in my area for 20 years now. The biggest single snow event I have ever seen was 5.75 inches! Not only that, but the most snow I have ever measured in one winter is only 7.5 inches! I’m not sure there is another single location anywhere outside of the immediate southern coast that has been that putrid for snow over the last 20 years. I know it’s crazy, but I really put my heart & soul into following snow storms and the year after year of heartbreak is starting to take its toll on me. I keep telling myself that one year it will happen and it will all be worth it, but it just never does! I know this post is rather off topic but trust me, I know how you feel and you have every right to complain. Honestly you keep yourself really composed under the circumstances. Everyone here has been screwed a bunch of times but I don't think people that live outside of the usrv screw zone truly understands how often it happens and how frustrating it is to see it happen over and over again while everyone else gets theres. For whatever reason, I've been really lucky the last few years in terms of snow but before that I think I went 10 plus years without more than an inch or two There is not many places you can go to complain about it while having people understanding your frustration. To everyone else, they just look at you like you are crazy, make jokes about it, and laugh at you. Just to make this post somewhat useful for everyone else, everyone should check out the college of dupage site. They continue to be one of the best sites out there. They have now added the 4km nam and the HRRR...which is especially cool. It's resolution is so high it recognizes features as small as individual valleys. Below you can clearly see the grand canyon. I'm not too familiar with how accurate it is since I've never really followed it so it will be interesting to see how it does with such high resolution. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Rest of the hrrr graphics are here http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 showing anything for wnc in this time frame Yes, 6-10" on the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I will be very surprised if we get through the next Tuesday - Sunday period without something to track. The pattern generally looks pretty good on all of the operational models. It's not ideal, but it's pretty darn good. PV nearby, split flow, big western ridge, strong arctic high pressure to the north and northwest. I still wouldn't give up on the 25th and 26th yet. There will be energy in the flow, but as always, it will come down to timing/potential phasing. I would not be surprised to be tracking a big dog very soon. The CPC indecies still look like garbage in the LR, but over the next week or so, they don't look too bad. The CFS continues to look cold for March, and the MJO looks like it *might* get to Phase 8, just looking at the phase diagrams for the various models. We'll see on that. The bottom line is, the pattern is looking good. All systems go.... Yeah I agree. The operationals don't look half bad but still room for improvment. The euro is hinting something next weekend along with the cmc. The amount of interaction of the NS and the amount of confluence aloft is still to be determined. Right now the operational euro probably not going to cut it with an inland GA track probably due to too much phasing with the NS. How ever this unfolds it certainly looks like it could be pretty wet since the s/w in question is southern stream originated. The cmc does show a well defined s/w in the sj but is lacking any NS interaction which would be a weak rainstorm. If the trends hold over the next week probably going to find out its going to be balancing act between a partial phased system to full phase to make it work in favor for a snowstorm. As far as the 25th event things could change some but right now that looks DOA. Track of SLP, time of day and the 850 0c isotherm hugging the VA border all scream rain for most of NC. Parts of southern/central VA could be game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I will be very surprised if we get through the next Tuesday - Sunday period without something to track. The pattern generally looks pretty good on all of the operational models. It's not ideal, but it's pretty darn good. PV nearby, split flow, big western ridge, strong arctic high pressure to the north and northwest. Agree. Looks like late next week offers the most potential. Lot to iron out in terms of PV placement and how that translates to allowing cold air to filter southeast...and how the southern wave looks and tracks (Euro will lead the way with southern stream handling, punt the GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 00z GGEM ensemble onboard for a SE snowstorm on the 27th. Has the freezing line running from Atlanta through Columbia and Wilmington with the whole SE in .1-.25 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Yes, 6-10" on the Op. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 From DT's facebook post...the purple line is his approximation of the R/S line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The euro ENS from last night looked really good for a big NC snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Now that's some real bombogenesis there. From 993 to 965mb in 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Now that's some real bombogenesis there. From 993 to 965mb in 6 hrs. For real, who needs 24 hours lets do it in 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The euro ENS from last night looked really good for a big NC snowstorm. I'd say it looked OK. Still many members showing nothing Mean at RDU is 1/6th of the OP's output, 2" Mean for CLT is 1/3 or so below 2" I'd like at least half the members showing snow and the ensembles at least 50% of the OPs output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Not quite ready to buy the snow line being 20 miles south of my house with a 1000 mb low 60 miles south of my house. But it would still be a good winter storm anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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