Lookout Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 There are some valid reasons why we constantly get “minima’ed.” 1. We are in the worst spot for the lee-side warm bubble during northwest flow Cold air advection regimes. By this I mean, we are the last place to scour out a warm boundary layer in a rain to snow situation. Thus, we can still be getting rain while locations to our east are actually turning to snow before us, even though the cold air is coming from the northwest. (See March 2009 for an excellent example.) 2. Downslope drying is maximized in this area if precipitation is coming from the WNW or NW. (See every clipper that has ever produced snow east of the mountains for an example.) 3. In certain Miller B setups, we are located in an area where sometimes the energy jumps from a Gulf low pressure to an Atlantic low pressure and we wind up in a qpf minima because of this. (See Feb 2004 for an excellent example.) 4. Our boundary layer temperatures are often times a degree or two warmer than surrounding locations. I don’t think this has anything to do with the lakes, but it may have to do with the relatively lower elevation allowing the warm air to somehow settle into the upper Savannah River valley. (I think sometimes that lowlevel downslope warming plays into this as well.) All that being said, none of those factors were the reason we got screwed in the last winter storm. It was purely bad luck. We got fringed by the initial baroclinic leaf Wednesday morning, while areas just to our south got plastered. Then the warm nose switched us over to sleet before the next round of precip arrived. Finally, we missed out on the backside snow bands Thursday morning while other area’s received their lion’s share of snow from that feature. Good post. As most know, I'm one of the unfortunate ones who has to deal with all of it... otherwise known as the lookout screwzone....which has always referred to the the upper savannah river valley (USRV) in northeast ga/western upstate in general because of this damn eddie. NO where else in the eastern US sees the type of delay in cold air advection in the low levels (and even up to 850mb a lot of the time) as the USRV screwzone. Nor does anywhere in the eastern us see faster drying out in post frontal situations. The USRV is always the first area east of the mountains to clear out. Atlanta will often have clouds, snow showers, flurries, etc while there is hardly a cloud in the sky here. It is so damn frustrating to see time and time again the cold air being modeled to swing on through the entire eastern seaboard with no problems..with the exception of here. The cold air will just stop dead in it's tracks and be delayed here with any type of westerly component to the cold air advection. Not sure about where you are at but even caa straight out of the north is delayed here..although the center of it is pushed a little further west than normal (generally from atlanta to gainesville to athens). And as you said, it's that delay directly results in it staying all rain while everywhere else turns to snow. I often describe it as picturing water going around a rock in a creek or river with the water behind the rock (the warm air) being trapped while the water around it (the cold air) moves on by. This bubble/eddie is why the western part of the state has seen snow several times this year when I didn't. As you said though it happens every year with every front. It's also been directly responsible for one of the most maddening screwjobs I've ever had. It was several years ago and it was snowing everywhere (even where you are) except one spot...an area only 20 to 25 miles in diameter and centered right here. I remember looking at the spc meso analysis page and seeing that bubble of warm air, which extended all the way to 850mb, sitting right on top of me..not moving..while everyone on here was thrilled with the huge flakes they saw. Most of the time the models pick up on it and they did that time too but the models underestimated it because they still had it getting cold enough for snow here. This was the only spot in the entire freaking southeast or eastern seaboard that was warm enough for rain north and west of the fall line. I never got a single flake (35/36 and heavy rain all day) while everywhere else got several inches. I truly was furious lol. I think that is the angriest I've ever gotten with it. I'm not sure why it's so pronounced here though. One would think everywhere east of the mountains would see an equal delay but for some reason the topography is such that causes it to be far worse and maximized in the usrv. I've sometimes wondered if it might have something to do with the higher elevations of the Appalachians dropping off significantly as you move southwest..this in turn allows faster flow over alabama/western ga which helps trap the airmass here. Combine that with the fact elevations are higher in nc than to the north and that the push of cold air is often a lot stronger/faster as you gain latitude..which again helps lock the airmass here in. In other words, the flow is is faster/stronger to the south and north of us (which mimics the water behind the rock surrounded by faster flow). To me it wouldn't be nearly as frustrating if everywhere down wind of the mountains had to deal with it like we do. I think you we should call the far northern end the burreal screwzone while I take the south end Yep. The 12z GFS is just, I mean, just cold. Pretty awesome for so late in the year. I don't think it has produced such an extreme surface high pressure as the one it's been showing. Unfortunately it keeps the core of the cold north of us. If we are going to be dry anyway, i'd rather it just come on down and give us some more records to break so that this winter goes down as something truly special in terms of temps. If we could somehow get that and/or more snow..man this winter would be very hard to ever beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Pretty awesome for so late in the year. I don't think it has produced such an extreme surface high pressure as the one it's been showing. Unfortunately it keeps the core of the cold north of us. If we are going to be dry anyway, i'd rather it just come on down and give us some more records to break so that this winter goes down as something truly special in terms of temps. If we could somehow get that and/or more snow..man this winter would be very hard to ever beat. Lookout, This is exactly where I'd want it to be in terms of wintry precip. chances just as it helped for the other ones. At the bottom of extreme cold airmasses near the sharp transition zone giving us CAD and/or other opportunities although record cold is also exciting though many on the bb hate dry cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Looks like the Euro tried to resurrect the 2/25-27 threat, but it's a little warm and not that wet, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Lookout, This is exactly where I'd want it to be in terms of wintry precip. chances just as it helped for the other ones. At the bottom of extreme cold airmasses near the sharp transition zone giving us CAD and/or other opportunities although record cold is also exciting though many on the bb hate dry cold. Yeah I know we stand a better shot of winter precip if we aren't in the heart of it..I'm just saying if we are going to be dry anyway (which more or less looks like we will be), it might as well be real cold so that this winter is one for the record books from start to finish. Not that it's not already one for the record books but I want to keep setting those records. If we can't get anymore snow out of it, let's go for the temps lol Looks like the Euro tried to resurrect the 2/25-27 threat, but it's a little warm and not that wet, anyways. Amazing to me that the euro has -36c 850mb temps touching the US border around hour 186. The level of cold being depected over canada and the northern us is something else for so late in the year. I bet those in the northern plains/great lakes are pretty sick of it by now because the cold up that way has just been incredible. Marquette michigan reached 32 today for the first time in 75 days! I doubt they are going to be thrilled to hear that some of the coldest air of the season could be on the way. I'm not sure what the record is but by the 1st of march it has 850mb temps of nearly -30c along the border (the 0z run did i believe) -30c 850mb temps in the US at the start of march seems pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Wow. No comments on the 12z euro? Following the MidAtlantic threa it sounds like a possible KU bomb. TW Day 9/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Wow. No comments on the 12z euro? Following the MidAtlantic threa it sounds like a possible KU bomb. TW Day 9/10 I know I've been very pro-Euro lately and have emphasized its absolutely fantastic performance with this last storm (had major winter storm NC 2/11-13 starting with 12Z run of 2/4!!), but this 12Z run collapsing the western ridge more quickly than the 0Z and so much more quickly than the gfs looks very suspect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I only have access to the crappy maps. Is any of the precip wintry for the southeast on the 12z euro? Would seem like at least some ice or ice to snow for some areas. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I only have access to the crappy maps. Is any of the precip wintry for the southeast on the 12z euro? Would seem like at least some ice or ice to snow for some areas. TW It isn't really widespread but it does appear to give some zr for W NC (be wary of the clown maps calling zr snow lol) and some snow to the NW mtns but it is a day 9-10 storm on a model that is currently rather unstable imo from one run to the next plus the modeled track isn't a good one for most of the SE normally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Got it! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 You would have to think if the model doesn't break down that super ridge on the West Coast quite so quickly, that the storm should forced a little further south as it comes east. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Don in the main thread has a nice little right up going forward into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 Euro ENS Control lends support to the Day 9-10 event being a bigger deal over North Carolina compared to the Operational...infact on this run this storm begins a string of 3 southern stream systems from Day 10-16... The Euro ENS Mean is a middle ground between the Operational and Control runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Yeah, the control run is wild. It bombs the low between ILM and Cape Hatteras at hr 240 and then slowly drifts southeast. Looks like it would at least be a major winter storm for TN and the NC mountains/foothills and probably the Piedmont, as well (maybe some mixing, though). I'm guessing it crushes the Mid-Atlantic. BTW, is there any way to get the control run clown maps off of WeatherBell? I know it doesn't really matter, but I'm curious. EDIT: Never mind, I found it. Looks like easily a foot for the areas that stay all or mostly snow with close to 30" near Richmond. EDIT #2: Good CAD signature and the 32F isotherm is down in SC, so most of us gets absolutely hammered by either snow, sleet, or freezing rain, or a combination of all three. It is below freezing for the entire storm from around Fayetteville to upstate SC to N GA. Nice weather porn, even if it's just a BS control run! BTW, the EPS members do seem to be somewhat receptive to the idea of a major winter storm at the end of a month. The mean shows 1.2" of snow for GSO (for example) with three members showing HECS totals and close to 20 members showing at least a trace. Not bad for D9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 If we see the splitflow develops again like the euro is showing. the last few days of february into the first week or two of march looks really good for a bigdog. time will tell on the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Robert just posted a nice write up about the potential for next weeks storm and the cold coming. He is saying where the transition zone sets up with the cold air look out just south of that. the upper southeast is looking pretty good. He agrees with DT about there will be a lot of factors why next weeks storm comes together, not just one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Robert just posted a nice write up about the potential for next weeks storm and the cold coming. He is saying where the transition zone sets up with the cold air look out just south of that. the upper southeast is looking pretty good. He agrees with DT about there will be a lot of factors why next weeks storm comes together, not just one model run. Where do they post their write ups? I see mention of DT and Robert's write ups all the time but have no clue if it's on here or on Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 Where do they post their write ups? I see mention of DT and Robert's write ups all the time but have no clue if it's on here or on Facebook. Robert does a teaser on his facebook feed but the big details are on his site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Robert does a teaser on his facebook feed but the big details are on his site. Can you post a link to his site? Or is it not for the public? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Never saw it coming...... http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-18/the-official-forecast-of-the-u-dot-s-dot-government-never-saw-this-winter-coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Lookout, It is definitely maddening to basically get less snow than everyone year after year. I know people probably get tired of hearing me grip about being screwed, but venting on here does provide me with a little bit of relief. I have been old enough to actively follow every snow threat in my area for 20 years now. The biggest single snow event I have ever seen was 5.75 inches! Not only that, but the most snow I have ever measured in one winter is only 7.5 inches! I’m not sure there is another single location anywhere outside of the immediate southern coast that has been that putrid for snow over the last 20 years. I know it’s crazy, but I really put my heart & soul into following snow storms and the year after year of heartbreak is starting to take its toll on me. I keep telling myself that one year it will happen and it will all be worth it, but it just never does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Where do they post their write ups? I see mention of DT and Robert's write ups all the time but have no clue if it's on here or on Facebook. Robert's are paid (DT too). But Robert does post a lot on Facebook though. http://www.wxsouth.com https://www.facebook.com/wxsouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 Can you post a link to his site? Or is it not for the public? WxSouth.com is a pay site but you can still create an account, premium access is around $10 a month which is an outstanding value for the amount of content provided...I would highly suggest giving it a try! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Lookout, It is definitely maddening to basically get less snow than everyone year after year. I know people probably get tired of hearing me grip about being screwed, but venting on here does provide me with a little bit of relief. I have been old enough to actively follow every snow threat in my area for 20 years now. The biggest single snow event I have ever seen was 5.75 inches! Not only that, but the most snow I have ever measured in one winter is only 7.5 inches! I’m not sure there is another single location anywhere outside of the immediate southern coast that has been that putrid for snow over the last 20 years. I know it’s crazy, but I really put my heart & soul into following snow storms and the year after year of heartbreak is starting to take its toll on me. I keep telling myself that one year it will happen and it will all be worth it, but it just never does! I'm with you. Easley almost always gets half of what everyone else in the Upstate gets and it is very frustrating when relatives in Simpsonville double us up. You wouldn't think 15 minutes away would make such a difference, but it does. The wierd thing is that Walhalla/Salem usually beat us as well, and they are even closer to the mountains, literally. I do, however, remember some brutally cols winters with alot of snow growing up in Salem during the 80's. Nothing like Upstate New York where I spent many years as a child, but way more wintery than Easley has been for the last 26 years. I think that you guys and Clemson get the absolute shortest end of the stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Lookout, It is definitely maddening to basically get less snow than everyone year after year. I know people probably get tired of hearing me grip about being screwed, but venting on here does provide me with a little bit of relief. I have been old enough to actively follow every snow threat in my area for 20 years now. The biggest single snow event I have ever seen was 5.75 inches! Not only that, but the most snow I have ever measured in one winter is only 7.5 inches! I’m not sure there is another single location anywhere outside of the immediate southern coast that has been that putrid for snow over the last 20 years. I know it’s crazy, but I really put my heart & soul into following snow storms and the year after year of heartbreak is starting to take its toll on me. I keep telling myself that one year it will happen and it will all be worth it, but it just never does! Atlanta: not quite as snowy as your area last 20 years regarding maxima with 7.1" seasonal max (2010-11) vs. your 7.5" and 4.6" heaviest single snowstorm (Jan. 2002) vs. your 5.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 To my untrained eye, the 18z GFS ensembles looked very interesting on e-wall. Winter storm after winter storm on many members starting after 168 hrs and running through 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 To my untrained eye, the 18z GFS ensembles looked very interesting on e-wall. Winter storm after winter storm on many members starting after 168 hrs and running through 240. Just like 1960. (Just for you jburns ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Just like 1960. (Just for you jburns ) UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/436370799058886657/photo/1 Well! There's part of the ingredients for sustained winter weather in the South, severe cold. All we need now is an active southern stream to go along with it and we will be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Had to work late, peaked at Euro before bed, shouldn't have...HECS day 8-10 for east coast. Don't look at the snow maps, crazy, never going to happen. 10-12" for a lot of NC, up to 18"+ for MA to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Had to work late, peaked at Euro before bed, shouldn't have...HECS day 8-10 for east coast. Don't look at the snow maps, crazy, never going to happen. 10-12" for a lot of NC, up to 18"+ for MA to NE. A lot of that in NC is ZR. I love the Euro but I hate the Euro clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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