mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I'm not seeing any CAD on thoseI thought I saw some buckling in the isobars on map two, atleast into NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Looks viable to me. System comes in from the southern rockies (after sliding over the ridge), and then scoots into southern GA, before exploding off the east coast, east of the Carolinas. It's a long shot, but not anything abnormal as far as the track IMO. Sounds pretty close to this http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReviews/19800301/19800301.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I thought I saw some buckling in the isobars on map two, atleast into NC? Surface temps don't show any CAD. That HP isn't close to being in position for CAD. I see the buckle though you were talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Anyone have one for the whole region? hold it fellows, this needs to be a gulf low coming across so the western half of the state gets a good snow also. I hope this is a gulf low. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Looks viable to me. System comes in from the southern rockies (after sliding over the ridge), and then scoots into southern GA, before exploding off the east coast, east of the Carolinas. It's a long shot, but not anything abnormal as far as the track IMO. wouldn't this be a good track for wnc also and upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 wouldn't this be a good track for wnc also and upstate? After the last fiasco I'd much rather not be in the bullseye this far out. Leave me on the outskirts that way there will be no dissapointing us when we only get an inch or two. No where to go but up from there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 wouldn't this be a good track for wnc also and upstate? It's certainly not a bad track, but kind of silly to look at anything other than the pattern in general at this point. Chances are increasing for this period, but as you know, nothing is guaranteed in the south, Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I prefer central florida track and slightly up the coast (far from the coastline) and out to sea. We all have our own preferences for our back yards. I expect to see a good many EPS members on board for areas now. Shawn, Looking at the 12z Euro Ens. mean, I see little support for this 2/25ish SE low. I'm guessing that only a few members will have all that much actual snow for even E NC, much less areas W and SW of there. The last series of storms (2/11-13) was already seen for NC by the operational Euro over several runs by this time. This one isn't seeing that as of now. The 18 GFS has little other than for the N NC mountains and ~1" for a small part of far NE NC. Edit for fantasyland fwiw: The 18Z GFS does give WNC a pretty nice icestorm for 3/2 and then a very nice snowstorm from a Miller A 3/6 for much of NC. Brick may need to change the dates for his storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Shawn, Looking at the 12z Euro Ens. mean, I see little support for this 2/25ish SE low. I'm guessing that only a few members will have all that much actual snow for even E NC, much less areas W and SW of there. The last series of storms (2/11-13) was already seen for NC by the operational Euro over several runs by this time. This one isn't seeing that as of now. The 18 GFS has little other than for the N NC mountains and ~1" for a small part of far NE NC. Edit for fantasyland fwiw: The 18Z GFS does give WNC a pretty nice icestorm for 3/2 and then a very nice snowstorm from a Miller A 3/6 for much of NC. Brick may need to change the dates for his storm lol. Horrible. 5 members show light amounts for KCAE. 12 for Raleigh... but to put into perspective.. while the OP had 9+ inches for them.. it's mean is under an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The 18z GFS is crazy in the LR. The storm around the 26th is a bit of a convoluted mess, but there's plenty of storm opportunities for the rest of the one. Surely we can get the stars to align for one of them (or not)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 After the last fiasco I'd much rather not be in the bullseye this far out. Leave me on the outskirts that way there will be no dissapointing us when we only get an inch or two. No where to go but up from there! I used to live just north of Seneca, actually on Lake Keowee - now live in Greenville - it always seemed that Oconee County was "protected" from wintry weather in the Upstate - Anderson/Greenville would always get more ice/snow - I suppose it could be the result of the influence of the giant lake system there (gorgeous lakes BTW) - looking at the last visible satellite photo from the previous storm was telling - Oconee County, SC was bare ground literally surrounded by snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I used to live just north of Seneca, actually on Lake Keowee - now live in Greenville - it always seemed that Oconee County was "protected" from wintry weather in the Upstate - Anderson/Greenville would always get more ice/snow - I suppose it could be the result of the influence of the giant lake system there (gorgeous lakes BTW) - looking at the last visible satellite photo from the previous storm was telling - Oconee County, SC was bare ground literally surrounded by snow A lot of people speculate that the lakes have an affect on our winter weather. I for one don’t buy into that theory. If that was the case, why is there not a relative minima for wintry weather around Lake Lanier in Georgia, or Lake Wylie near Charlotte, or heck, even around Lake Murray in Columbia? It seems to me all of those locations have done much better than Oconee/Pickens county over the last 20 years, yet they are very close to similarly sized lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Horrible. 5 members show light amounts for KCAE. 12 for Raleigh... but to put into perspective.. while the OP had 9+ inches for them.. it's mean is under an inch. For 2/11-13, EVERY single operational run of the Euro, much less the ensemble mean, from the 12z 2/4 run all of the way through the events, had a major winter storm for a good portion of NC! So, from 7-9 days out, the Euro absolutely nailed it. Even for ATL-AHN it was nailed by the 12z 2/6 run. Again, I'm just talking about the operational, for which it is more difficult to do than the ensemble mean. We're now within 7 days of this event and I see no strong suggestion like this as the ensemble mean has very little. Moreover, the track isn't a classic track for most widespread major SE winter storms. Also, I'm not seeing as high a CAD opportunity with this one right now. CAD would make something sig. and widespread more likely in many cases. So, my confidence level in a sig. SE winter storm ~2/25 is low right now although I suppose E NC has the best shot as of now if something similar materializes. Let's see what happens. I expect much bigger swings for this one from run to run. Edit: Also, something like 14 of 15 GFS runs from a similar point in time had them although it then lost them until not too long before the events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 There are some valid reasons why we constantly get “minima’ed.” 1. We are in the worst spot for the lee-side warm bubble during northwest flow Cold air advection regimes. By this I mean, we are the last place to scour out a warm boundary layer in a rain to snow situation. Thus, we can still be getting rain while locations to our east are actually turning to snow before us, even though the cold air is coming from the northwest. (See March 2009 for an excellent example.) 2. Downslope drying is maximized in this area if precipitation is coming from the WNW or NW. (See every clipper that has ever produced snow east of the mountains for an example.) 3. In certain Miller B setups, we are located in an area where sometimes the energy jumps from a Gulf low pressure to an Atlantic low pressure and we wind up in a qpf minima because of this. (See Feb 2004 for an excellent example.) 4. Our boundary layer temperatures are often times a degree or two warmer than surrounding locations. I don’t think this has anything to do with the lakes, but it may have to do with the relatively lower elevation allowing the warm air to somehow settle into the upper Savannah River valley. (I think sometimes that lowlevel downslope warming plays into this as well.) All that being said, none of those factors were the reason we got screwed in the last winter storm. It was purely bad luck. We got fringed by the initial baroclinic leaf Wednesday morning, while areas just to our south got plastered. Then the warm nose switched us over to sleet before the next round of precip arrived. Finally, we missed out on the backside snow bands Thursday morning while other area’s received their lion’s share of snow from that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 A lot of people speculate that the lakes have an affect on our winter weather. I for one don’t buy into that theory. If that was the case, why is there not a relative minima for wintry weather around Lake Lanier in Georgia, or Lake Wylie near Charlotte, or heck, even around Lake Murray in Columbia? It seems to me all of those locations have done much better than Oconee/Pickens county over the last 20 years, yet they are very close to similarly sized lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 A lot of people speculate that the lakes have an affect on our winter weather. I for one don’t buy into that theory. If that was the case, why is there not a relative minima for wintry weather around Lake Lanier in Georgia, or Lake Wylie near Charlotte, or heck, even around Lake Murray in Columbia? It seems to me all of those locations have done much better than Oconee/Pickens county over the last 20 years, yet they are very close to similarly sized lakes. It's not the lakes, it's the mountains for now. We did not have this problem in the 80's. I remember, as a teenager, the lakes freezing to the point that we could walk on them in the winter. I don't buy all of that global warming garbage, I believe we are just in a cycle that will come back around soon. I also believe that this timeframe shows something is coming. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Our weather is cyclical, always has been. I can post tons of "global cooling" articles if need be. This area was prime through the early to mid eighties. My wife and I can both attest to it. She is a lifelong native and I am from upstate NY where snow fell by the foot, literally. If the historical trend continues, upstate SC will once again enter a 20-30 year cold cycle. I cannot wait myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I'm excited for the severe later this week. We should get some good linear storms and straight line winds. Hodos look pretty good for mid February, not enough for spin ups but close, should be a nice early severe event and a little change of pace. It will take a perfect situation to get a tornado anywhere with this threat, spent a few hours looking at indices around the SE for possible hot spots, seems very limited, even in Arkansas & TN. Just not going to have enough separation from the main line, probably going to see some tornado warnings though just because of the widespread nature of the line and the instability/low level shear involved should create weak rotation (better safe than sorry type of thing)...good event for mid feb, already excited for severe season and ready for the snow threats to exit right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I'm excited for the severe later this week. We should get some good linear storms and straight line winds. Hodos look pretty good for mid February, not enough for spin ups but close, should be a nice early severe event and a little change of pace. It will take a perfect situation to get a tornado anywhere with this threat, spent a few hours looking at indices around the SE for possible hot spots, seems very limited, even in Arkansas & TN. Just not going to have enough separation from the main line, probably going to see some tornado warnings though just because of the widespread nature of the line and the instability/low level shear involved should create weak rotation (better safe than sorry type of thing)...good event for mid feb, already excited for severe season and ready for the snow threats to exit right. Once again for NC. Here in central SC; its pretty bad looking. Our local guys spoke of the 'dry line' earlier being a concern.. but I saw no real good evidence of it around these parts. All I really see is wind as a possibility here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Our weather is cyclical, always has been. I can post tons of "global cooling" articles if need be. This area was prime through the early to mid eighties. My wife and I can both attest to it. She is a lifelong native and I am from upstate NY where snow fell by the foot, literally. If the historical trend continues, upstate SC will once again enter a 20-30 year cold cycle. I cannot wait myself.No, you can't, because it was never a mainstream, well-supported theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I thought I'd post this here as I posted it somewhere else and it's my 100% gut feeling. Please critique/tell me if I'm wrong? ;/ I thought this belonged here in the pattern thread because I feel the Euro EPS is more than valueable for us over here in the GA/SC/NC regions in even a pattern sense. I'll tell you what. If you can find an instance this year when the Euro EPS didn't put snow further East into SC/NC/GA and didn't verify let me know. Individual members of the EPS are much different than individual members of the crap GFS etc.There are more members that have much better meteo programming on the Euro EPS alone than even the GFS operational has. I can't count one time when 75% of the Euro EPS showed a Winter event around the areas of GA/SC/NC and it didn't verify in some fasion.In fact, anyone who kept up with the last two Winter events further West.. and kept the EPS maps.... they jumped on about 5 or 6 days out for each right? Even if they were marginal.. and you got more, the Winter weather was there on the members... I vaugley remember looking at KBMX and seeing many members showing very very light winter weather a long ways out on at least one of those events.Operational runs suck. They always will. It's cool they are run at an even higher resolution... and can sometimes sniff something out... but in actuality.. if they have no support from lower res ensemble members (that could actually miss intricate details the OP may see)... then there's a problem. There is no way 50 members of the Euro are going to miss out over a 20 run craptastic GFS model.This is where there is a fine line of talk about "well the GFS grabbed it first." or a "King Euro wins again" type of talk.Neither model is perfect.. but no matter what.. the Euro EPS will always be far superior to forecast on regardless of a SW energy hold off bias vs a 20 member GFS (that is too progressive with the N. Stream) that we can barely fund. I think to professionally/commercially be able to give the Euro data/precip/everything away to your clients... it was $250,000 a year last I checked. Sadly some vendors just output horrible snowfall maps/algorithms of the Euro.Euro eps = no go. Fantasy GFS/members = "wait for euro to grab it" in my book. I might be "funny"; but more times than not; the Euro is right.Rambled like woah. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Can you say SuperCAD? Well, the 0Z GFS sure can...on 3/2-3. Major ZR for CAD regions. Be there! The neutral negative ENSO phase is the one most supportive of major ZR in ATL-AHN fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Can you say SuperCAD? Well, the 0Z GFS sure can...on 3/2-3. Major ZR for CAD regions. Be there! The neutral negative ENSO phase is the one most supportive of major ZR in ATL-AHN fwiw. Hold on, I'll go make the thread for it. Seriously though, that would be a crazy ice storm for much of NC. It would be nice if we could get some model consistency. Seems like they've been throwing things out all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Can you say SuperCAD? Well, the 0Z GFS sure can...on 3/2-3. Major ZR for CAD regions. Be there! The neutral negative ENSO phase is the one most supportive of major ZR in ATL-AHN fwiw. Bricks 10 day snow rule in effect!!? I'm currently experiencing a T- storm, so 10 days from now should be some wintry weather?! Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Is that a clipper system that gives NC a significant snowfall on the 00z GGEM on 2/25? It appears to be cold enough, though I'm still waiting on better maps. Clippers always work out! EDIT: 4" for Raleigh. All-in? EDIT #2: Looks like a general 3-4" across much of NC with some 4"+ areas in the foothills and mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Is that a clipper system that gives NC a significant snowfall on the 00z GGEM on 2/25? It appears to be cold enough, though I'm still waiting on better maps. Clippers always work out! EDIT: 4" for Raleigh. All-in? Where do you get these graphs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Where do you get these graphs? Meteocentre. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Raleigh&mod=gemglb&run=00&var=prcp〈=fr&map=us Raleigh is the only city available in our area, unfortunately. They also have graphs for Atlanta and Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Meteocentre. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Raleigh&mod=gemglb&run=00&var=prcp〈=fr&map=us Raleigh is the only city available in our area, unfortunately. They also have graphs for Atlanta and Nashville. Oh, okay! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Fwiw, the 0Z GEFS doesn't show much support for a storm near 2/25 but it does show decent support for CAD/ZR 3/1-2 (about one day earlier than the 0Z GFS). With all of this excitement and despite my love for sleep, I feel I have only one choice tonight: stay up for the incredible and vitally important King, a model that has regained its royal status thank goodness. The King is about to start rolling. Folks, please take your seats as we watch the greatness roll onto our screens panel by panel. Edit: I sure hope Brick is getting shut-eye now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Fwiw, the 0Z GEFS doesn't show much support for a storm near 2/25 but it does show decent support for CAD/ZR 3/1-2 (about one day earlier than the 0Z GFS). With all of this excitement and despite my love for sleep, I feel I have only one choice tonight: stay up for the incredible and vitally important King, a model that has regained its royal status thank goodness. The King is about to start rolling. Folks, please take your seats as we watch the greatness roll onto our screens panel by panel. Edit: I sure hope Brick is getting shut-eye now. Let me know how it goes! I'll be up waiting for the good news... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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