rduwx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 7:06 PM, Cold Rain said: Hey buddy! Yep, nice storm on the 12z euro. It's been close the past few days and then boom, there it is today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Well that sure was a nice run of the Euro! Looks like game on! Hopefully the ensembles will support this! If your gonna have one model on board at this range, it's good to be the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Found the clown map in the MA thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 7:06 PM, Cold Rain said: Hey buddy! Yeah, was thinking for a minute there that everyone was in Spain on siesta or something (or maybe just having to actually work). In a 12hr period, the Euro sfc low drops from 1000mb off Myrtle Beach to 978mb off Cape Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 7:17 PM, griteater said: Yeah, was thinking for a minute there that everyone was in Spain on siesta or something (or maybe just having to actually work). In a 12hr period, the Euro sfc low drops from 1000mb off Myrtle Beach to 978mb off Cape Hatteras That's a pretty nice pressure fall there. A little sooner...just a little sooner, and you'd probably be able to up those totals substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 7:17 PM, griteater said: Yeah, was thinking for a minute there that everyone was in Spain on siesta or something (or maybe just having to actually work). In a 12hr period, the Euro sfc low drops from 1000mb off Myrtle Beach to 978mb off Cape Hatteras Does it leave us Upstate folks out of the game on that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I guess this is for real. Inside 10 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 7:21 PM, Brick Tamland said: I guess this is for real. Inside 10 days now. Yep, euro has it on day 7. Also PGV takes a good hit so it has to be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 7:20 PM, Snow dog said: Does it leave us Upstate folks out of the game on that run? It was a late bloomer mostly favoring the eastern half of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 7:20 PM, Snow dog said: Does it leave us Upstate folks out of the game on that run?Mostly. You want the track to cross N Florida , then hug the coast. If it is too far out to sea, then only E NC is really in the game. If its cold enough as the low goes across FL, then we could do ok. If we have to wait for the storm to wrap up to bring in the cold, we will be in trouble. Thee good thing is it will look nothing like this tomorrow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 7:25 PM, mackerel_sky said: Mostly. You want the track to cross N Florida , then hug the coast. If it is too far out to sea, then only E NC is really in the game. If its cold enough as the low goes across FL, then we could do ok. If we have to wait for the storm to wrap up to bring in the cold, we will be in trouble. Thee good thing is it will look nothing like this tomorrow ! I don't know. The Euro pretty much held on its solution with the last storm a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I would favor a suppressed solution over an amped up one at this point. The depiction, as shown, would mean the clown map should be pretty close to reality. I wouldn't expect as wide of an area of IP/ZR this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 7:25 PM, mackerel_sky said: Mostly. You want the track to cross N Florida , then hug the coast. If it is too far out to sea, then only E NC is really in the game. If its cold enough as the low goes across FL, then we could do ok. If we have to wait for the storm to wrap up to bring in the cold, we will be in trouble. Thee good thing is it will look nothing like this tomorrow ! LOL depends where you are then cause the last one hugged the coast and it sucked for me....I prefer the 200 miles east of hatteras stall scenario so we call get it on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I prefer central florida track and slightly up the coast (far from the coastline) and out to sea. We all have our own preferences for our back yards. I expect to see a good many EPS members on board for areas now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 7:16 PM, packfan98 said: Found the clown map in the MA thread: Anyone have one for the whole region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 7:46 PM, Brick Tamland said: Anyone have one for the whole region? here you go http://models.weatherbell.com but you have to pay $185 first like the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 For the Upstate folks it had us in the 2-3" range, so it's not a miss, but further north and east towards Rock Hill to Charlotte it's 3-6, to the big gir of 6-12 eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 7:59 PM, Southern Track said: For the Upstate folks it had us in the 2-3" range, so it's not a miss, but further north and east towards Rock Hill to Charlotte it's 3-6, to the big gir of 6-12 eastern NC.Was this a miller A? Where did the low come from to get off the coast? How were the temps, for us that can't see maps? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 By the way, the last run of the DGEX also had the storm track from Savannah-Charleston-Wilmington-Cape Hatteras. It just wasn't cold enough. Look for it to give us some fantasy snow in the coming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 8:08 PM, mackerel_sky said: Was this a miller A? Where did the low come from to get off the coast? How were the temps, for us that can't see maps? Thanks From what I could see it looked like a gulf storm. And actually, the 850 temps looked pretty good I think, down in to northern SC. I simply do not yet believe that we're going to have two gulf snowstorms in 2 weeks time. I firmly expect this to be a blip.....MAYBE I'll start believing when the ensemble means of both the GFS and EURO are upticking on snow for NC/CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 8:08 PM, mackerel_sky said: Was this a miller A? Where did the low come from to get off the coast? How were the temps, for us that can't see maps? Thanks I wouldn't call it a Miller A because it looks to me like it develops too far north (overland) and not along or south of the Gulf coast. For most of GA including ATL, this is a no go due to it being too north. For ATL-AHN and even the upstate to get something really good from this, it would be much better if it were a Miller A assuming there'd also be ample cold air in place. For ATL-AHN folk, there's obviously plenty of time for this to change for the better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 7:50 PM, Jon said: here you go http://models.weatherbell.com but you have to pay $185 first like the rest Just getting Brick to even visit a model site would be a win. And that aint gonna happen. No way he'd ever pay $185 for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 8:08 PM, mackerel_sky said: Was this a miller A? Where did the low come from to get off the coast? How were the temps, for us that can't see maps? Thanks Have a look at the 24th, 25th, and 26th below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 8:24 PM, Cold Rain said: Just getting Brick to even visit a model site would be a win. And that aint gonna happen. No way he'd ever pay $185 for it. You could buy a lot of Bojangle's for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 8:24 PM, CarlHill said: Have a look at the 24th, 25th, and 26th below:I like the look of the 1042 high in the plains, but seems a smidge too far west, but there appears to be some wedging showing up, so I'm cautiously optimistic ! Thanks for explanations and maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The low track is really north. Very odd. It's almost like a diving clipper, just really south and west. I'm calling shenanigans on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 8:36 PM, mackerel_sky said: I like the look of the 1042 high in the plains, but seems a smidge too far west, but there appears to be some wedging showing up, so I'm cautiously optimistic ! Thanks for explanations and maps! I'm not seeing any CAD on those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 9:04 PM, SnowNiner said: The low track is really north. Very odd. It's almost like a diving clipper, just really south and west. I'm calling shenanigans on this one. Also, notice that there's not really a moist WSW flow coming out of the Gulf. This is far different from the last two, which were actual Gulf lows. For much of the SE, it isn't really a favorable track, but it will almost certainly change as this is a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 GFS has the low further south in the Gulf then crossing the panhandle. Still plenty of time to watch things take shape. At least something is there from run to run 6 days in a row. We can deal with the specifics as it gets closer. I'm optimistic for something good in this timeframe through first week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 On 2/18/2014 at 9:04 PM, SnowNiner said: The low track is really north. Very odd. It's almost like a diving clipper, just really south and west. I'm calling shenanigans on this one. Looks viable to me. System comes in from the southern rockies (after sliding over the ridge), and then scoots into southern GA, before exploding off the east coast, east of the Carolinas. It's a long shot, but not anything abnormal as far as the track IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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