Marion_NC_WX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 What's on the menu as we get ready to hit the back stretch of this winter season? Discuss any long range prospects here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The Euro shows some snow on Saturday for N NC, as well. We're probably talking about T-1", at best, but still, it's something. 2m temperatures aren't even that horrible (33ish). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Look at this beautiful snow map off the Euro out at hour 162 on Wednesday. This is the same time as the GFS has been showing. Edit: Sorry I didn't see that we had ballooned to a couple more threads overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The AO looks to drop sharply now, the NAO looks to drop slowly toward neutral, and the PNA looks to rise toward neutral in the LR. The CFS has Weeks 1 and 2 normal to cooler than normal in the SE with Weeks 3 and 4 above. The LR operationals now look normal or below through day 10. Around 300 hrs, the GFS warms up. Once again, the warm up has been delayed, and the the snow hater vortex doesn't look to stick around too terribly long. DT was talking about how the pattern would be hostile and has backed off of that, somewhat. Don S. expects Feb to be cooler than normal in the east, with the exception being the SE, where he expects warmer than normal temps through the month of Feb. He hints at moderation for the last week or so of the month, with perhaps a pattern reload for the first half of March. All in all, not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The AO looks to drop sharply now, the NAO looks to drop slowly toward neutral, and the PNA looks to rise toward neutral in the LR. The CFS has Weeks 1 and 2 normal to cooler than normal in the SE with Weeks 3 and 4 above. The LR operationals now look normal or below through day 10. Around 300 hrs, the GFS warms up. Once again, the warm up has been delayed, and the the snow hater vortex doesn't look to stick around too terribly long. DT was talking about how the pattern would be hostile and has backed off of that, somewhat. Don S. expects Feb to be cooler than normal in the east, with the exception being the SE, where he expects warmer than normal temps through the month of Feb. He hints at moderation for the last week or so of the month, with perhaps a pattern reload for the first half of March. All in all, not too bad. Ya all in al things look pretty much like they have all winter. Cold to cool then brief warm up then back to below average. If we could get the NAO the cooperate we could have us a big storm I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 CR, I agree with the above. I've been swamped with pharmacology exams and labs so I haven't been able to post on the pattern, but I have been peeking at model runs during lecture (oops). Teleconnections are having a hard time, as usual, and looking at them run to run will only bring heart ache, especially on the LR GFS. It flips from diving -NAO/-AO combos to neutral to positive solutions run to run. What is obvious to me is we're going to get some sort of +PNA back with the negative heights over the aleutians. Old 12z GFS ensemble mean from yesterday valid 12z 1/16 Now the new run 12z today valid 12z 1/16 240hrs. As you can see the associated ridges (black lines) are getting sharper and we'll have corresponding troughs associated with them, equally as sharp. Keep an eye on the trough development over Scandinavia, normally when they're having fun, so are we. 12z Euro ensembles look the same. I had maps posted here but since they're WxBell I decided to remove them, but I'll describe it for you! 12z yesterday ens mean valid 12z 1/16...bland, looks a lot like the first GFS image I posted. Trough over east coast is weak, not really indicating any cold coming our way...no real -AO...etc. 12z Euro ens mean today valid 12z 1/16 has a deep trough out west, much stronger, and the cold air diving into the SE along with a stronger -AO signal. It's funny I was looking at the day 8-14 day outlook this morning before the new maps were released today on the CPC site, and noticed a few Top Analogs that time period. When I averaged the two and added a few days (because looking at previous runs I thought this pattern would be around the 18th or so) this is what I got. Using the updated Top 2 Analogs from today's UPDATED outlook centered on 1/17 (I believe), this is what I get Interesting. Obviously this is kind of like a FWIW type of post, but we are going to get more chances, IMO. I like a mid month chance at a big one for the SE, we could see the models start sniffing something out pretty soon. Interesting period coming up, we'll see how the models handle it. All I know is some well known mets we ready to winter cancel for the SE, they may have to eat crow soon. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Nice piece of work Jon, thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Nice Jon! Good luck with your exams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Good post, Jon. I appreciate you taking the time to put it together. I hate it when you're swamped with exams. But good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The next couple of weeks could be quite fun! Off the 06Z GFS this morning, we see another storm materializing next weekend, with a classic track. Lots of potential coming down the tracks. Not all of it will play out, but it's nice to see chances out there: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The next couple of weeks could be quite fun! Off the 06Z GFS this morning, we see another storm materializing next weekend, with a classic track. Lots of potential coming down the tracks. Not all of it will play out, but it's nice to see chances out there: That's weird, the PSU ewall site has the Low north of TN. Still plenty of mixed signals in the LR. The models keep waffling back and forth between periods of amplification and zonal flow. The indexes look about the same as yesterday with no real immediate signs of a good -NAO. Certainly no torch, but no real sustained cold pattern in the super extended. That's just going off the ops, though. It makes more sense to continue to use the ensembles, and I haven't looked at them yet. Jon's post from last night was encouraging. The take-away terms are uncertainty and variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks like DT ends winter after Feb 20th, seems to be a growing consensus on that around here, although the mtns can always get snow into late March. Actually did winter ever start for RDU? Holy cow, just looking at the day 11-15 Euro ENS, that is a major warmup coming, I would guess temps in the 60-70F, woohoo. Put your crabgrass pre-emergent down next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks like DT ends winter after Feb 20th, seems to be a growing consensus on that around here, although the mtns can always get snow into late March. Actually did winter ever start for RDU? DT ended winter from February 10th-20th a few days ago. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 How is his downright hostile weather pattern against any winter chances between February 10 and 20th working out for him? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 DT ended winter from February 10th-20th a few days ago. Oops. GEFS matches up well with Euro ENS, woohoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 BTW, did you guys see the potential fantasy storm on the 12z Euro at D10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 CMC ENS agrees, winter over after the 20th…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 BTW, did you guys see the potential fantasy storm on the 12z Euro at D10? I saw the big cutter day 8 and the gulf low day 10 with the HP sliding off the coast, which would be a cutter of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I saw the big cutter day 8 and the gulf low day 10 with the HP sliding off the coast, which would be a cutter of some sort. True, though it looked like there was enough CAD to start things off as ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 How is his downright hostile weather pattern against any winter chances between February 10 and 20th working out for him? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I am not sure what he said? Did he cancel winter after Feb 10th? I just saw his FB post and then I went and checked the 3 major model ENS runs which show a mega torch coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 True, though it looked like there was enough CAD to start things off as ZR. Isn't part of you looking forward to some warm days, got soccer starting up on Feb 22nd, should be nice weather, I am pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I am not sure what he said? Did he cancel winter after Feb 10th? I just saw his FB post and then I went and checked the 3 major model ENS runs which show a mega torch coming. He said the pattern from the 10th-20th would be downright hostile to winter storm prospects, as TNWeatherNut said. Isn't part of you looking forward to some warm days, got soccer starting up on Feb 22nd, should be nice weather, I am pumped. Oh, I don't know. I'd be cool with more winter. We've got the whole summer to torch. I wouldn't mind it being warm enough to bicycle, but "cold" weather in March is in the 40s/50s (unless there's a snowstorm or something), so that will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I am not sure what he said? Did he cancel winter after Feb 10th? I just saw his FB post and then I went and checked the 3 major model ENS runs which show a mega torch coming. Several days ago.......He said the pattern not only looked bad, but looked downright hostile for winter weather b/w the 10-20th. A day or two later this threat we are following popped up on the models and he issued an "I am going to be wrong" follow up. It's (the weather) too variable this year. I don't understand why anybody with his talent needs to go out on such a limb, without absolute model consensus.....? Sure he could be right, but he could also be very wrong.......again. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'll believe the warm-ups on the extended range when they actually occur. Plus, the temps can warm up for three or four days and then go right back in the freezer after that. I'm not concerned at all about a 15-day forecast. Winter ends sometime around early April; I've got two more months to enjoy. A brief "potential" warm-up in no way signifies an "end" to winter. It's death is not fait accompli. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Several days ago.......He said the pattern not only looked bad, but looked downright hostile for winter weather b/w the 10-20th. A day or two later this threat we are following popped up on the models and he issued an "I am going to be wrong" follow up. It's (the weather) too variable this year. I don't understand why anybody with his talent needs to go out on such a limb, without absolute model consensus.....? Sure he could be right, but he could also be very wrong.......again. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I think the problem is that he typically follows the models. when he came out with his prognostication, most models had just dropped the storm for this weekend and there was pretty much model consensus that a warmup would ensue shortly thereafter. About as soon as he made his "hostile" comment, things flipped. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So round #3 for Friday night. Who's in?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like my next best chance will come around the 24/28. Perhaps the seasonal dance of the ULL's will begin in earnest, with two doing the dosey doe tag out west. I desperately need to eke something out of this winter besides zr T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GEFS is very cold day 10-15, looks like mid-Jan part 2, uggghhh. Where is spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GEFS is very cold day 10-15, looks like mid-Jan part 2, uggghhh. Where is spring. Interesting. Seeing -5+ for SC & GA even. Wonder if end month into the beginning of March might would have some sort of crazy storms going on.. but looking at NAO etc.. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GEFS is very cold day 10-15, looks like mid-Jan part 2, uggghhh. Where is spring. FWIW CFSv2 has been wobbling between a normal or much colder start to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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