Poimen Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm not trying to be mean and maybe you meant this as a joke but this just made me laugh because of how totally obvious the statement is. Yes, you're right to LOL at this one. I was just trying to give a reason as to why RAH was mentioning a Miller B when that's not what's really being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I don't think this storm will go "poof" like the one for this weekend, but whether it's a winter storm or just rain is yet to be determined. My money is on rain for the most of us at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Soundings over the northern Sandhills are much better this run. Starts as snow and holds longer, but a bit concerned about the ZR in that second batch of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Marietta, With the heaviest qpf well south of N GA on the 18Z GFS, the amounts in the ATL-AHN corridor are much lighter than the prior run. I'm guessing as of now that's a hiccup as trends usually go north rather than south, if anywhere. Regardless, this is the first GFS run for which ATL-AHN gets down to 32 verbatim for the coldest with the precip., which looks to me like mainly ZR but also with some IP. Even way down to SAV and CHS, where the rain is quite plentiful, it gets all of the way down to 35 with precip. That's not something seen very often. Thls all tells me that there's plenty of cold air for this system or series of systems with which to work. Meanwhile, much of NC still gets hit hard. We're now at 12 of the last 13 GFS runs and 5 Euro runs in a row with sig. wintry precip. in sig. parts of the SE within 2/11-13! It can't get much more impressive than that! Also, unlike many of the first runs, the focus of the wintry precip. verbatim is no longer just on NC. I think that the threat of sig. wintry precip. for ATL-AHN continues to slowly grow. Edit: I recommend that the thread title be changed to Feb. 11-13 sleet, snow, ZR threats or something similar. As of now, 1/11 is being ignored by the title and there may be two events. i agree with you, i believe that this one is has more similarities than the one that went poof lol. the last one that had this kind of support did produce a pretty good winter storm in the se. the details are not there, but with so much agreement and model support (and cold air around apparently) its looking pretty good for another se storm. hopefully ga gets in on the action this round, and if we can keep the slow but gradual decrease in temps going the next couple of days a lot of us might be getting some more frozen precip this is probably a wild shot but if we can get the first wave to produce and keep the second wave there can hopefully be enough snow cover north and east of ga to keep the temps down those few extra (and usually precious) degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z GFS CIP's analogs have several good hits…(See Brick, I can be positive, but I agree with Fishel, look for the magic show to commence slowly but steadily, "the great winter storm disappearing act" Analogs.. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg= Hits…. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19880108.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030116/ http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/ http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19960107.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20030227.gif It sure is fun to see the models show a major winter storm run after run. But it's also really easy to forget just how narrow the margin is between major winter storm and a few ice pellets or a few snowflakes followed by a rainout -- basically a non-event -- here in the SE. This is weird because on one hand, you have tremendous agreement between the various model suits and ensembles for a major, high-impact winter storm. But on the other hand, it takes much less to screw it all up than it does to keep it together for the next 5 days. Also, I do not recall a huge winter storm that we were able to track for a solid week to 10 days out all the way through the event. Now, that really has no bearing on this situation, but there is a reason that has been the case. I'm still not in Brick's bread and milk camp, but it's fun to ride along....so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I didn't just see 1/88 as the #2 analog on CIPS. Nope, didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 12Z Euro is a serious ZR all of the way to the ATL-AHN corridor verbatim via a Miller B per the model's two meter temp.'s. This is the coldest run of either the Euro or the GFS by a good margin (although the 12Z GFS is fairly close) for that corridor and the qpf is 1.5-2"! IF this were to verify closely as a ZR, it would potentially be the worst there since 1/1973. Combine that with the 12Z GFS doing something similar qpfwise (but with a Miller A, not Miller B ) and considering colder recent model trends, the risk of a major winter storm in N GA ~2/12 is clearly increasing though still only slowly due to inherent uncertainty six days away. Also, prior to 12Z today, the models were too warm for N GA (at least verbatim). Edit: Also, keep in mind that the Euro, if anything, is warm biased at two meters when there is a wedge and steady precip. in the SE. Larry, hope you don't mind but I just reposted this too my many Georgia friends on Facebook (and told them you are about as good as it gets forecasting winter storms in Georgia). I have the same concerns as you. All we don't need in metro Atlanta after "snowjam 14" is a 1973 (or January 2000) type ice storm, but am very worried it's about to happen. https://www.facebook.com/perry.williams.524596 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I didn't just see 1/88 as the #2 analog on CIPS. Nope, didn't happen. It does look similar at the H500 level. Maybe not as cold as '88 with the 1040+ mb high it produced but it has some interesting similaries regarding the track of the southern short wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It does look similar at the H500 level. Maybe not as cold as '88 with the 1040+ mb high it produced but it has some interesting similaries regarding the track of the southern short wave.And the long finger of overrunning . The 88 event started a day earlier than expected because of this, kind of what has started to show up for this event next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 i agree with you, i believe that this one is has more similarities than the one that went poof lol. the last one that had this kind of support did produce a pretty good winter storm in the se. the details are not there, but with so much agreement and model support (and cold air around apparently) its looking pretty good for another se storm. hopefully ga gets in on the action this round, and if we can keep the slow but gradual decrease in temps going the next couple of days a lot of us might be getting some more frozen precip this is probably a wild shot but if we can get the first wave to produce and keep the second wave there can hopefully be enough snow cover north and east of ga to keep the temps down those few extra (and usually precious) degrees That's a pretty good point to ponder. Don't normally have snow cover over nc before a cad winter storm. Would be interesting to see what effect that might or might not have on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I doubt very seriously that this will be snow for anyone in GA except maybe in the far NE to start. If it is as cold as the models are suggesting, then the one thing that could save us from a crippling ice event is some sleet. Back in the 80s (forget the year) there was a system that everyone thought would be devastating ice but we ended up with 3-5" of sleet. January 7-8, 1988 if memory serves me correct Matt. We were expecting zrain and ended up with 2.5" sleet in Douglasville with some freezing drizzle on top. It took nearly a week to melt. At KATL it was 4.2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 In everyone's honest non weenie/wishcast opinion...? What are the odds this HP gets to 1044mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 In everyone's honest non weenie/wishcast opinion...? What are the odds this HP gets to 1044mb? I don't see it happening. I'll be happy with the 1036 the 12z euro was showing and settle for the 1032 the 12z cmc showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 In everyone's honest non weenie/wishcast opinion...? What are the odds this HP gets to 1044mb? Non-weenie would keep it under 1040, maybe 1036 at tops. 1044 would certainly make things interesting. Was there a projection of that I missed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Non-weenie would keep it under 1040, maybe 1036 at tops. 1044 would certainly make things interesting. Was there a projection of that I missed? I haven't seen it yet. Was just wondering if anyone else has/saw a reason for it to be actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 But on the other hand, it takes much less to screw it all up than it does to keep it together for the next 5 days. Also, I do not recall a huge winter storm that we were able to track for a solid week to 10 days out all the way through the event. well its certainly not time for the panic milk and bread run lol. however, i think that when larry started the thread for the last storm was about in this time frame and with similar support from the various models. it was just the nail biting down to the wire to get a consensus on the track i have started paying more attention to this storm midweek for that reason...i see similarities and there is too much on the models to think no one will see anything. of course you are also right how easy it is to screw the se out of winter wx cads are a bit different though, and usually have an idea a day or so out simply but checking obs. if the ne winds are there driving in the cold dry air, and radar is lighting up chances are someone will see something That's a pretty good point to ponder. Don't normally have snow cover over nc before a cad winter storm. Would be interesting to see what effect that might or might not have on temps. we can dream can't we haha. thats what i was thinking. many times lately our temps have been the dreaded 33 and rain (or with digital thermometers the even worse 32.1 and rain) if there is snow cover close to ga (ie nc) any cold air coming in would be less likely to moderate at all i would think/hope In everyone's honest non weenie/wishcast opinion...? What are the odds this HP gets to 1044mb? weenie wishcast - i would love to see a 1044 high nonweenie opinion - seriously doubt it. possible, but highly unlikely. that is a very very strong hp and while the cold air and moisture has been impressive this year, i do not recall any of the extreme hp that were shown on the models verifying at all. IIRC they were all weaker I haven't seen it yet. Was just wondering if anyone else has/saw a reason for it to be actually. sneeeaky lol. i thought you had seen it on one of the maps too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z GGEM: Ramps up to 1038mb Goes down to 1036mb Goes up to 1037mb Heads to the NE at 1035 Strengthens back to 1036mb over NY State 1039mb by the time it hits Maine, then 1042 as it left the USA. 12z GFS: 1038/1037mb. Drops to 1036 close to Indiana. Rapidly weakens to 1033 as it gets to Ohio. 1032 over PA/tryng to slide too far East. 12z Euro: 1037 1035 over a wider area then by the time it gets to the NE, it's 1038mb in northern NY state So I guess the GFS is the weaker, with the GGEM/Euro half-way agreeing on a stronger HP as a whole. Edit; 12z UKMET was weak like the 12z GFS too. 1033 entering the NE 144hr comparison image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z GGEM: Ramps up to 1038mb Goes down to 1036mb Goes up to 1037mb Heads to the NE at 1035 Strengthens back to 1036mb over NY State 1039mb by the time it hits Maine, then 1042 as it left the USA. 12z GFS: 1038/1037mb. Drops to 1036 close to Indiana. Rapidly weakens to 1033 as it gets to Ohio. 1032 over PA/tryng to slide too far East. 12z Euro: 1037 1035 over a wider area then by the time it gets to the NE, it's 1038mb in northern NY state So I guess the GFS is the weaker, with the GGEM/Euro half-way agreeing on a stronger HP as a whole. Edit; 12z UKMET was weak like the 12z GFS too. 1033 entering the NE 144hr comparison image: Interesting information to note as we go into the 0z runs, thanks Shawn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Larry, hope you don't mind but I just reposted this too my many Georgia friends on Facebook (and told them you are about as good as it gets forecasting winter storms in Georgia). I have the same concerns as you. All we don't need in metro Atlanta after "snowjam 14" is a 1973 (or January 2000) type ice storm, but am very worried it's about to happen. https://www.facebook.com/perry.williams.524596 Wow, thanks, Perry, for the compliment! Coming from you, a highly respected guru and GA weather history expert, that means a lot. No, I don't mind. Coming after snowjam 14, how this is handled would be very interesting to say the least!! Also, coming on the heels of snowjam 14, that would certify this winter as one of the great/most memorable ones for the area imo. Edit: Aside: I just read some TalkWeather posts that were downplaying ZR in ATL if it is at 31-32. I'm not a member there, but they need to be told about Jan., 1973!! Imo, they couldn't be more misinformed. 31-32 ZR can still be quite bad on the trees and wires even if the roads aren't too bad. But supposedly 1/1973 was even bad on the roads. Much of that ZR was falling at 31-32! Perry, I assume you agree. I wasn't in ATL in 1973, but have seen the temperatures and have heard from Tony (dsaur), here, about how bad it was right at 32 in Buckhead. 1/1973 is, of course, only one example of major ZR at 31-32 at ATL that caused a big mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 A thing to note. I seen some comparisons to the last "Event" that was modeled. I believe it was only the GFS and UKMET or GGEM or both that supported the event. And only the 0z and 6z runs of the GFS supported a winter storm for the area. This event has, ensemble support from all the global models, deterministic global model support for a winter type solution. So IMO this event has a higher probability of coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Great point. This weekend's "non" event never approached the widespread support from nearly every model and its ensembles that we are seeing now for next week's potential event. Now, it could all fall completely apart at any time. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Whose doing the GFS play by play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 @96...snow across Eastern OK, northern half of Arkansas and sneaking into Memphis. Small transition area of mixed precip just south of there. EDIT: Moisture not racing out east this run compared to others, probably going to end up being one solid hit instead of a 1-2 punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Colder and more overrunning ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Should have never updated that previous post...precip streaking east @ 108 and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 1st wave puts down about 4-5" of sn in the RDU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I don't think this run will be very good for the main wave. Southern s/w is just flatter and more positive, ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Whew! KCAE is spared a major ice storm still. Cold retreats fast from here for the second possible wave.. if it doesn't head on off the coast into the ATL. I'll take it! Euro still by itself with it here. EPS is worrisome though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Wow. That sucked. The overrunning is nice, but the "main event" went "poof"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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