Hammer Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Cold Rain, I just did some additional research of CLT/RDU/GSP/GSO NWS data for Miller A's that produced major ZR or IP at ATL: 1. 2/17-18/1979: was a 4" IP at ATL that I later added (you may not have seen) that has been since referred to as "PD #1". a. CLT: mostly snow but some IP the last few hours. 10" of S/IP from 1.30" liquid. b. RDU: almost all snow. 10.4" from 1.19" liquid. A little IP/ZR near the end. c. GSP 8.2" of almost all snow from 0.8" liquid (some IP mixed in) 2. 2/6-7/1979: a major ATL ZR; a. CLT: After ~4-5" of snow, there was a major combo of IP and then ZR with ~1" total liquid equivalent for just the IP/ZR! Total storm liquid equiv. was 1.43"! b. After ~5" of snow, there was ~0.31" liquid equiv. of IP and then ZR. total storm liq. equiv. was 0.86". 3. 1/7-8/1973: one of worst ZR's ever at ATL. a. CLT: 0.87" liquid; snow changed to IP; about a 50-50 mix liquid equiv. wise ; total S/IP 5.5" b. RDU: 0.85" liquid; mainly snow (6.4") 4. 3/25/1971: major ATL ZR (latest in season on record) GSP, CLT, RDU: all had 5-7" of SIP from 0.80" to 1.1" liquid. All three changed to IP and then ZR. The % of liquid that was IP/ZR was ~40-50%. 5. 12/25/1943: major ATL ZR a. CLT: major ZR ~1" liquid b. GSO: 0.5"+ liquid of IP/ZR combo 6. 1/7/1940: major ATL ZR a. GSO: moderate IP (mainly) with 0.4" accum./ from 0.28" liquid b. CLT: moderate IP/ZR with 0.9" accum. from 0.57" liquid c. RDU: IP and likely ZR, too, with T of accum. from 0.83". Must have been mainly ZR since only a T of accum.'s of IP and temp.'s 32 or lower 7. 12/16/1932: major ZR ATL CLT: S/IP/ZR combo 1.30" liquid produced 3.8" S/IP. So, there was clearly a sig. portion that was IP/ZR. 8. 1/21/1918: major ATL ZR I don't have detailed info for any NC/SC cities. However, the weather map suggests that most NC cities may very well have had mainly snow. I'll just assume that for now. --------------------------------------------------- Summary/Conclusion: All but storms #1 and #8 clearly had a significant to major IP/ZR component into parts of SC/NC. So, the geographical extent of sig. to major IP/ZR was pretty extensive for 6 of the 8 Miller A's being analyzed. You rock... great research / write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 @117 snow across WNC and light snow across most of NC. That's a lot of precip out ahead of the system on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 18z looks colder so far...Snow in most of NC at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 You rock... great research / write up. Cold Rain, I just did some additional research of CLT/RDU/GSP/GSO NWS data for Miller A's that produced major ZR or IP at ATL: 1. 2/17-18/1979: was a 4" IP at ATL that I later added (you may not have seen) that has been since referred to as "PD #1". a. CLT: mostly snow but some IP the last few hours. 10" of S/IP from 1.30" liquid. b. RDU: almost all snow. 10.4" from 1.19" liquid. A little IP/ZR near the end. c. GSP 8.2" of almost all snow from 0.8" liquid (some IP mixed in) 2. 2/6-7/1979: a major ATL ZR; a. CLT: After ~4-5" of snow, there was a major combo of IP and then ZR with ~1" total liquid equivalent for just the IP/ZR! Total storm liquid equiv. was 1.43"! b. After ~5" of snow, there was ~0.31" liquid equiv. of IP and then ZR. total storm liq. equiv. was 0.86". 3. 1/7-8/1973: one of worst ZR's ever at ATL. a. CLT: 0.87" liquid; snow changed to IP; about a 50-50 mix liquid equiv. wise ; total S/IP 5.5" b. RDU: 0.85" liquid; mainly snow (6.4") 4. 3/25/1971: major ATL ZR (latest in season on record) GSP, CLT, RDU: all had 5-7" of SIP from 0.80" to 1.1" liquid. All three changed to IP and then ZR. The % of liquid that was IP/ZR was ~40-50%. 5. 12/25/1943: major ATL ZR a. CLT: major ZR ~1" liquid b. GSO: 0.5"+ liquid of IP/ZR combo 6. 1/7/1940: major ATL ZR a. GSO: moderate IP (mainly) with 0.4" accum./ from 0.28" liquid b. CLT: moderate IP/ZR with 0.9" accum. from 0.57" liquid c. RDU: IP and likely ZR, too, with T of accum. from 0.83". Must have been mainly ZR since only a T of accum.'s of IP and temp.'s 32 or lower 7. 12/16/1932: major ZR ATL CLT: S/IP/ZR combo 1.30" liquid produced 3.8" S/IP. So, there was clearly a sig. portion that was IP/ZR. 8. 1/21/1918: major ATL ZR I don't have detailed info for any NC/SC cities. However, the weather map suggests that most NC cities may very well have had mainly snow. I'll just assume that for now. --------------------------------------------------- Summary/Conclusion: All but storms #1 and #8 clearly had a significant to major IP/ZR component into parts of SC/NC. So, the geographical extent of sig. to major IP/ZR was pretty extensive for 6 of the 8 Miller A's being analyzed. Larry, that is awesome data. Thanks for putting that together. Very interesting to see it laid out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 18z looks colder so far...Snow in most of NC at 120. Euro showed this to, main event still coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 RDU is going to like the 18z. Already 2 inches @126 and it gets wetter for them @129. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Nice little event. Yeah it is, and looks like more to come....hr 141 more qpf down in gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Is the Great Lakes low gone? Would be nice if GFS showed it being gone , like the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 @144 it looks so close to being huge...but my fear is what the GFS is showing....everything is just south of us. We'll see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 @150 it's turning and it is def. cold enough. This could be the big happy hour party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Is the Great Lakes low gone? Would be nice if GFS showed it being gone , like the euro! It's there but lagging behind just enough...Nice wedge set up @ 150. Looks to be down in the tips of NE Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The ridge gets beaten down, no phase, not as amplified as Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 850s may be a problem for many here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 1028 high to the north trying to hang on but here comes the lakes low trying to kick the hp east. Wedge is probably set up but will kill any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 We need to change the storm date on thread to 11th and 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 850s may be a problem for many here... Raging sleet storm across NC @159. Perfect track if the cold air is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 At least KCAE stays out of the ice. I'll take this run. Whew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 18z GFS shows round 1 Tuesday with 2-5 inches across across TN, N AL/GA/MS, NC. Round 2 is ice from RDU to CLT and NW Wednesday night. Models are all over the place with this right now to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 18z GFS shows round 1 Tuesday with 2-5 inches across across TN, N AL/GA/MS, NC. Round 2 is ice from RDU to CLT and NW Wednesday night. Models are all over the place with this right now to say the least. Do you buy the two separate waves? That's a fairly unusual setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This is the perfect track for RDU if we could just hold that hp a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 18z GFS shows round 1 Tuesday with 2-5 inches across across TN, N AL/GA/MS, NC. Round 2 is ice from RDU to CLT and NW Wednesday night. Models are all over the place with this right now to say the least. Sounds very familiar to 6-7 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Do you buy the two separate waves? That's a fairly unusual setup. It is a bit unusual but not unprecedented. I will dig through the archives tonight and look up some instances. Looks like round of overrunning and then then main low. Honestly, I dont know right now and no one should say they do at this point, all the globals agree on a winter weather threat, but the nature and timing still ranges from Monday to Thursday! And from two waves to 1 big storm and from mostly ice to mostly snow, to both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 1028 high to the north trying to hang on but here comes the lakes low trying to kick the hp east. Wedge is probably set up but will kill any snow. one place you read that the models are trending colder for next week then you read where the low will kick the hp east. also read where the lakes low isn't there anymore, so just wandering which is it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 850s may be a problem for many here... some are saying models are trending colder then I see this about the 850's or is this just the models having trouble with the 850 line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 some are saying models are trending colder then I see this about the 850's or is this just the models having trouble with the 850 line? HP pulls away quickly as the main show arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 gsp won't put out anything about next week yet. they are talking rain and snow right now but I have a feeling it will be mostly snow in the mtns. with some sleet at the end but by the end most the moisture has fallen as snow. gsp still staying conservative. I thought maybe a HWO might be out about next week but I guess its to early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That is a really long duration winter storm for north carolina with snow starting at 117 to 120 and lasting through 162 to 168 due to those two separate waves. wowsers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 HP pulls away quickly as the main show arrived. are you talking mostly for your area or also the mtns. of NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 are you talking mostly for your area or also the mtns. of NC? My area thankfully stays all rain. Just check out the GFS maps; mountains may be okay? I know CLT suffered some 850 problems after the initial wave. Might not be bad enough for ZR though for them. Maybe sleet as burger noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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